Official SSB4 Newcomer Bets Thread

[Evastio]

Welcome to the Official SSB4 Newcomer Bet Thread!! In this thread we list characters that we think are likely to be in Super Smash Bros. 4, stick them on our betting lists, and see just how accurate our newcomer lists are and see who's the most accurate in the end!!

The official rules are as follows:

- we guess newcomers only and we don't guess character cuts
- Melee veterans that were cut from Brawl do not count as newcomers and will not be accounted for, except for Mewtwo's new form as either a standalone character or a Sheik/Zero Suit Samus type transformation
- Everyone starts at 100 Points
- A -5 Penalty for each new character revealed for late joiners of the game will be implemented
- The only placeholder guess that is allowed currently is a 6th Generation Pokemon, with other placeholder slots being allowed as more games from existing Smash Bros. series are announced/new series that are likely to have playable characters in Smash Bros are announced. Swapping/adding placeholder guesses that this rule applies to does not count towards the swapping/adding guess limit
- Every correctly guessed newcomer is +10 points.
- Every newcomer that is guessed but isn't in the final roster is -10 points
- Exceptions to the above 2 rules include:
---- Third party characters, who are +20 if correctly guessed and -20 if incorrectly guessed
---- Specific characters that were swapped from a placeholder guess (Eg: changing 6th Gen Pokemon slot to Mewtwo's new form) or characters with a very recent debut in a game (new characters from games that are announced from 2013 and onward), who are +20 if guessed correctly and -10 if incorrectly guessed
---- Placeholder guesses (Eg: 6th Gen Pokemon, new forms that debut in Gen 6 for Gen 1-5 Pokemon count), which are +2 if correctly guessed and -10 if incorrectly guessed
---- Pokemon Trainer type newcomers (people that are able to swap between three Pokemon), who are +5 for the right elemental order (eg: correctly guessing fire as base form starter, grass as intermediate form starter, and water as final form starter), +10 for the right Pokemon Generation, and +2 for correctly guessing there's another Pokemon trainer newcomer and neither of the above two are right. -10 if there aren't any Pokemon Trainer type newcomers whatsoever.
- Every newcomer that does show up that you didn't guess is -5
- Swapping/adding/removing guesses is unlimited before the first SSB4 newcomer reveal (which is likely on June 11). After that, only two guess swaps/additions/removals (meaning you can only do those three things twice) are allowed, unless a new game from a Nintendo franchise gets announced (see rule 5), in that case you're allowed one free guess addition/swap for that game franchise
- Guesses will be closed 1 month before SSB4 gets released in the country it first gets released in. However, if there are any leaks of a full roster after the demo stations are available and they start showing up on many prominent sites, bets will be closed then.

So the general idea for this betting game is to be as accurate as possible, since guessed newcomers that don't make it in as well as newcomers that make it in that you didn't guess will be counted against you. Remember, you're free to change your bets as much as you want before the first SSB4 newcomers are revealed.

Rules may be subject to change in the future, but we'll try to implement changes in a fair way so they won't put anyone at an unfair advantage/disadvantage.

Anyways my bets are as follows:

Takamaru
Shulk Little Mac
Chrom
(6th Gen Pokemon)
Mega Man
Shulk
Palutena

[Bolivar]

Can we overlap? I do think Chrom's going to be in it.

Knuckles
Vyse (from Skies of Arcadia, given the new Nintendo/Sega partnership and that being a beloved GC RPG)

Torneko Taloon (I'm thinking we're getting some DQ love and that's my best guess!)
Cecil Harvey

[Evastio]

Can we overlap? I do think Chrom's going to be in it.

Eh... I don't think you're getting the thread. This is a betting game where you're supposed to post all the newcomers you personally think are highly likely to be in SSB4, it's not a combined list. So if someone posted a newcomer you also think is highly likely, you add them to your list as well.

The rules can be simplified as follows :

•Start with 100 points
•Guess who you think will be new characters. Do not guess characters who you think will leave
•Guess a character correctly = +10 points (+20 for 3rd Parties, +2 for 6th Pokemon Gen Placeholder spot, see opening post for rules on Pokemon Trainer type newcomers)
•Guess a character wrong = -10 points (-20 for 3rd Parties)
•Don't guess a character and the character is in = -5 points
•If you join after some new character reveals have been made = -5 points for each new character
•Person with most points "wins"

3rd Parties are higher risk, higher reward because they're harder to predict if they'll be in Super Smash Bros. compared to Nintendo owned characters. Sakurai, the director for all Smash Bros. games, even said he'd try to keep the number of 3rd Party characters down so the focus stays on Nintendo.

I should also mention that Sakurai also said SSB4 won't be as newcomer heavy as Melee or Brawl, just so you don't bet on too many characters and lose a lot of points for incorrect guesses.

So to see how points work, let's use this as an example:

Newcomer Guesses: Shulk, Mega Man, Palutena, Lloyd
Actual Revealed SSB4 Newcomers: Shulk, Takamaru, Mega Man, Pac-Man

So everyone starts off at 100. This person would get +10 for correctly guessing Shulk and +20 for correctly guessing Megaman . He'd also lose -10 each for incorrectly guessing Palutena and -20 for correctly guessing Lloyd. And since Takamaru and Pac-Man are in the final roster, and this person didn't guess that Takamaru and Pac-Man would be in, he'd lose -5 for each.

100 (Initial)
+10 (Shulk)
+20 (Mega Man)
-10 (Palutena)
-20 (Lloyd)
-5 (Takamaru)
-5 (Pac-Man)
----------------------
90 (Final Score)

So basically, you'll only want to bet on characters you think are highly likely to be in SSB4.

[Del Murder]

King Deedee
Haunted Mansion Luigi (different from the normal Luigi)

[Polnareff]

-Chrom
-Takamaru
-Mega Man
-Little Mac
-Samurai Goroh

I think the last 2 will especially be in. People were so pissed off that they were assist trophies in Brawl.

[TrollHunter]

-Issac (golden sun)
-Chrom

[Depression Moon]

Paper Mario
Palutena
Little Mac
Animal Crossing Character
(6th Gen Pokemon)
Pac-Man

[Setsu]

This seems fun.
heres mine


-Goku (Dragonball z)
-Ghirahim(Of skyward sword)
-Baby mario with yoshi
-Shulk

whoop bring on tommorrow! :tonberry:

[Elite Lord Sigma]

Might as well get in on this now.

-Chrom
-Isaac
-Animal Crossing Character
-Mega Man
-Little Mac
-Samurai Goroh
-Shulk
-Chorus Men (Rhythm Heaven)

[Flaming Ice]

Lyn
Kalas
Shulk
Krystal
Black Knight (But I'd like to have Petrine >.>)

[Depression Moon]

Wii Fit Trainer

Da smurf?@??&?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBoL1Ic9uWw

[Evastio]

Yeah, Wii Fit Trainer threw the whole Smash community off. Villager did to a much lesser extent.

Here's the scores now. The -5 per newcomer late penalty will officially begin now.

Evastio: 110
Bolivar: 85
Del Murder: 85
Polnareff: 110
TrollHunter: 85
Deptression Moon: 100
Setsu: 85
Elite Lord Sigma: 125
Flaming Ice: 85

[Flaming Ice]

Wii Fit Trainer

Da smurf?@??&?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBoL1Ic9uWw



Probably to draw in people 40 + who play that game ;)

[NeoCracker]

I can't be the only one who wants this, but with Megaman coming to Smash Bro's, I so hope there is a big reveal of Sigma as the Villain this time. :love:

[Denmark]

but ssb's mega man is classic mega man who is not x and thus never fought sigma

wily was the better villain anyway http://imgur.com/nysm4sD.gif

[NeoCracker]

Ah, right, well maybe X should be included too. :p

And Sigma > Wily

[Evastio]

I hope this isn't considered necro-ing the thread, but I forgot to update the thread's rules along with the Serenes Forest Betting Thread that I'm running (http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=40470&page=3).

Anyways, the update: seeing how the X reveal at E3 did not feature Shulk and was not Xenoblade related (to my knowledge, but I'm not very familiar with Xenoblade), we're allowing a free Shulk guess removal/switch for those who did guess Shulk. If any of you know can fill me in regarding X and if it's Xenoblade related or not (or if it features Shulk), let me know.

I'm personally switching out Shulk for Little Mac.

I should also inform you guys that Namco Bandai characters aren't more likely just because they're helping develop SSB4 (http://home.eyesonff.com/general-gaming-discussion/150474-official-ssb4-newcomer-bets-thread.html), so you might not want to guess them.

[I Don't Need A Name]

Well it seems that everyone has missed out on points from todays announcement!

Both Pikmin and Captain Olimar from Pikmin have been announced for SSB4

[Evastio]

Well it seems that everyone has missed out on points from todays announcement!

Both Pikmin and Captain Olimar from Pikmin have been announced for SSB4
This thread is for guessing Smash Bros. newcomers only, not veterans. It was stated as the first rule in the opening post:


The official rules are as follows:

- we guess newcomers only and we don't guess character cuts

Olimar is a veteran Smash Bros. character, so nobody gains or loses points from him being announced. I restricted the guessing to newcomers only because I felt that practically all the Brawl veterans would return, barring a few like Snake and Sonic (who are guest characters and are likely to be a one game deal), Toon Link (who may likely get cut due to being a second version/incarnation of Link. Plus, Sakurai said he wants the roster to be much more diverse this time around), and Lucario and Ike (who may likely get prioritized by more recent and relevant characters from their series, similar to what happened to Mewtwo and Roy in Brawl).

Anyways, regarding Olimar being confirmed for SSB4, I'm glad they didn't decide to replace him with one of the Pikmin 3 protagonists, since Olimar is the Pikachu/Marth of the Pikmin series. I wonder if he can use any of the new Pikmin like the rock Pikmin or the Flying Pikmin, since the screenshots didn't show him using them. I doubt they'll give Pikmin more than one playable character and have the other playable character use the new Pikmin.

[Evastio]

I hope necroing this thread is okay, since Smash Bros. newcomer updates don't happen that often and updates to this thread will happen seldomly as well.

Anyways, we've gotten out first newcomer reveal for Super Smash Bros. for 3DS/Wii U ever since E3: Rosalina!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPdutb_6DZU

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/rosetta/main.png

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/rosetta/screen-3.jpg

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/rosetta/screen-7.jpg

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/rosetta/screen-2.jpg

And now the scores are as follows:

Evastio: 105
Bolivar: 80
Del Murder: 80
Polnareff: 105
TrollHunter: 80
Deptression Moon: 95
Setsu: 80
Elite Lord Sigma: 120
Flaming Ice: 80

[Elite Lord Sigma]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmtrmAvL5aw

Got another one right! I bet some people are going to be happy about this one.

[Agent Proto]

LITTLE MAC!!!

http://storage.siliconera.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/MAC_thumb.jpg

[Evastio]

Even though two people beat me to it, I guess I should post it anyways since I'm running the thread's betting game:

Little Mac has been confirmed to be playable in SSB4!!

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/little_mac/main.png

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/little_mac/screen-1.jpg

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/little_mac/screen-6.jpg

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/little_mac/screen-4.jpg

Well, it's time to update the scores with Little Mac's inclusion.

Evastio: 115
Bolivar: 75
Del Murder: 75
Polnareff: 115
TrollHunter: 75
Deptression Moon: 105
Setsu: 75
Elite Lord Sigma: 130
Flaming Ice: 75

[Depression Moon]

Yay, I've gotten 2 right so far.

[Madame Adequate]

Harry Enfield.

[Elite Lord Sigma]

Well, considering this new character didn't even exist when this betting thread began, I don't think any of us got this one right.

xEJBPMcbRkk

As for the other non-playable Pokemon in the trailer:
-Marill
-Bellossom
-Chespin
-Oshawott
-Snivy
-Goldeen
-Eevee
-Metagross
-Entei
-Electrode
-Gardevoir
-Palkia
-Snorlax
-Kyogre
-Lugia
-Kyurem
-Giratina
-Zoroark
-Gogoat
-Suicune
-Deoxys
-Inkay
-Fennekin
-Keldeo
-Meloetta
-Victini
-Spewpa
-Meowth
-Staryu
-Swirlix
-Dedenne
-Darkrai
-Togepi

[Evastio]

Greninja has been confirmed to be a standalone playable character in yesterday's Smash Bros. Direct:

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/gekkouga/main.png

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/gekkouga/screen-2.jpg

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/gekkouga/screen-6.jpg

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/gekkouga/screen-3.jpg


Well, considering this new character didn't even exist when this betting thread began, I don't think any of us got this one right.

Well, I figured it would be way too hard to guess a specific 6th Generation Pokemon right, seeing how we knew little to nothing of 6th Gen at the time this thread was made. That's why I allowed a generic 6th Gen Pokemon slot. Anyways, Depression Moon and I correctly guessed a 6th Gen Pokemon would make it in, though I made it worth +2 instead of the usual +10, since it wouldn't be fair to give that many points to such a generic guess.

So here's the scores right now:

Evastio: 117
Bolivar: 70
Del Murder: 70
Polnareff: 110
TrollHunter: 70
Deptression Moon: 107
Setsu: 70
Elite Lord Sigma: 125
Flaming Ice: 75
Mister Adequate: 70

Also, I'm only going to account for guessed characters that are practically deconfirmed (like Ridley and Waluigi) only after the 3DS version is released, since Sakurai himself said that anything he shows is subject to change (though for those kind of characters, those guesses will be locked and you're not allowed to switch/remove them, since people could easily avoid the -10 point penalty for an incorrect guess that way). Although Sakurai didn't state it directly, it's safe to say that confirmed newcomers are a lot less subject to change than deconfirmed newcomers.

[Skyblade]

So with Charizard and it's Mega-Form (most likely its Final Smash, maybe with Char X for WiiU, Char Y for 3DS?) now confirmed, does that make poor Pokémon Trainer now live among the outcasts? I'm still hoping for Mewtwo.

So, Greninja's move lineup is apparently: Water Shuriken (standard B signature move), Waterfall (up B recovery), Substitute (down B block/counter), and Shadow Sneak (side B dash damage). So what move is the aqua blade it uses?

[Depression Moon]

3 right so far! I'm on a roll!

[Bolivar]

So with Charizard and it's Mega-Form (most likely its Final Smash, maybe with Char X for WiiU, Char Y for 3DS?) now confirmed, does that make poor Pokémon Trainer now live among the outcasts?

That's a shame - he was one of the best things Brawl had going for it.

[Skyblade]

I'm still hopeful for another Fire Emblem character. Ike was very popular due to his ease-of-use and overall utility, but they may choose to replace him with Chrom or Lucina, because of how incredibly well-received Awakening was.

EDIT: Also, how the heck did Kid Icarus get a title card during the Villager video, yet Fire Emblem didn't? Fire Emblem has been a part of the series longer, and has added more characters, more stages, and even more Assist Trophies. Not to mention, being an actual existing franchise with far more history and depth than the two Kid Icarus games. WTF, Nintendo?

[Skyblade]

54152

Mega Man's Final Smash, a combo attack by his various incarnations. He may not be his own fighter, but at least Nintendo remembers Mega Man Volnutt. If only Capcom would do the same. Where is Mega Man Legends 3, Capcom?!

From left to right:
MegaMan.exe from the Mega Man Battle Network games.
Mega Man X from the Mega Man X games.
Mega Man's basic form, from the classic Mega Man games.
Geo Stelar in Mega Man form from the Mega Man Star Force games.
Mega Man Volnutt from Mega Man Legends.


Also, does anyone else wish that Mega Man's palette swaps would actually be the different forms?

[Evastio]

I just wanted to mention that if anyone wants to use up their two changes to their betting list, they better do so now before Nintendo's E3 presentation tomorrow.

You can only do the following things twice:
-add a character to your list
-switch a character by removing an existing one from your list and adding a new one
-remove a character from your list

Again, the idea of this betting game is to make your list as accurate as possible, since any inaccurate guesses will count against your score, as will characters that make it in that you didn't guess.

I'm personally adding Palutena and Shulk to my list.

[Skyblade]

I've heard theories that we may get an incarnation of Bayonetta as a fighter. Undoubtedly toned down, but as a Nintendo exclusive, she is a possibility, I suppose.

[Wolf Kanno]

Come on Nintendo, give me Shulk with the Monado!

[NeoCracker]

I would really rather they have Dunban or Melia then Shulk, but I'd be happy with that. :p

[Wolf Kanno]

I'd rather have Dunban as well but you know they would use Shulk. Hell I would love having Riki so we can have another obnoxious little round dude who is annoying but kicks everyone's ass. :p

[NeoCracker]

The Heropon would be a pretty neat edition. :p

[Depression Moon]

changed my list. Replaced Daisy with Palutena and added Robyn and Pac-Man.

[Evastio]

So Miis and Palutena have been confirmed as playable characters:

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/mii_fighter/main.png

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/palutena/main.png

The scores are now as follows:

Evastio: 122
Bolivar: 60
Del Murder: 60
Polnareff: 100
TrollHunter: 60
Deptression Moon: 112
Setsu: 60
Elite Lord Sigma: 115
Flaming Ice: 60
Mister Adequate: 60

Edit: Also, Depression Moon, I should mention you can only make two changes max, so you can only keep one between your Robyn and Pac-Man addition.

[Depression Moon]

I'll remove Robyn

[Skyblade]

Still waiting for the Fire Emblem love. We finally got Ile back (even if it is Radiant Dawn Ike). And there is a picture of him and Marth (which makes me think that Marth is being relegated to Assist Trophy status). But I'm going to be both shocked and quite upset if that's all we get. I'm expecting at least Lucina (who would be the new Marth), and probably one other character from Fire Emblem.

EDIT: Cancel that, somehow I just overlooked Marth.

Still looking for a character from Awakening though.

[Evastio]

Pac-Man has been confirmed to be playable in SSB4!!

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/pac-man/main.png

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/pac-man/screen-6.jpg

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/pac-man/screen-5.jpg

The scores are now as follows:

Evastio: 117
Bolivar: 55
Del Murder: 55
Polnareff: 95
TrollHunter: 55
Deptression Moon: 132
Setsu: 55
Elite Lord Sigma: 110
Flaming Ice: 55
Mister Adequate: 55

[Skyblade]

Less excited for Pac-Man, more excited for his Galaga moves. Because Galaga is awesome.

Good job with Pac-Man, though.

[Elite Lord Sigma]

I swapped out Samurai Goroh and Isaac for Shulk and the Chorus Men from Rhythm Heaven.

[Skyblade]

Aw, we need more Golden Sun love. Isaac as playable character! The whole Djinn rotation would be an awesome mechanic for a fighter.

Has anyone else seen the Character Creation (http://www.smashbros.com/us/howto/entry2.html) page? It mentions Palutena, so I'm guessing it's new.

[Endless]

Aw, we need more Golden Sun love. Isaac as playable character! The whole Djinn rotation would be an awesome mechanic for a fighter.

Has anyone else seen the Character Creation (http://www.smashbros.com/us/howto/entry2.html) page? It mentions Palutena, so I'm guessing it's new.

Mii was revealed when they talked about the game, Palutena was revealed at the very end of the online conference. Dark Pit was hinted at, too.

[Skyblade]

Aw, we need more Golden Sun love. Isaac as playable character! The whole Djinn rotation would be an awesome mechanic for a fighter.

Has anyone else seen the Character Creation (http://www.smashbros.com/us/howto/entry2.html) page? It mentions Palutena, so I'm guessing it's new.

Mii was revealed when they talked about the game, Palutena was revealed at the very end of the online conference. Dark Pit was hinted at, too.

Dark Pit had better not be playable, or had better play very different. They've done such a good job at getting rid of the palette swap characters (like Dr. Mario).


I was just saying that the Character customization stuff appears to be something they released yesterday, so I was seeing if anyone missed it.

It's not as though there's any other discussion thread for this game. :grumble:

[Depression Moon]

Can we get Bomberman in now so we can have three man characters?

[Evastio]

I suppose I don't mind if you guys use this thread for general SSB4 discussion, but at the same time, it's kind of weird since this thread is mainly for the Newcomer Betting Game and people might not know discussing General SSB4 is allowed based on the title. I think making a separate thread for SSB4 Discussion should be okay, and might be better so we can avoid confusion and having to alternate between General SSB4 and the Betting Game as a topic.


I swapped out Samurai Goroh and Isaac for Shulk and the Chorus Men from Rhythm Heaven.

Alright then. That'll be all the guess changes you're allowed then.

[Evastio]

Double Post since I realized an oversight I made regarding Elite Lord Sigma's guess changes.

I forgot that Samurai Goroh has already been confirmed as an Assist Trophy, so switching him out would be rather cheap since you're essentially erasing an incorrect guess and escaping the -10 penalty when Samurai Goroh's playability has already been deconfirmed. I'll allow you to simply add Shulk, though. Switching out Isaac is okay since he hasn't been deconfirmed/practically deconfirmed.

To make things fair, I guess I should implement a guess lock on deconfirmed/practically deconfirmed characters (when I say practically deconfirmed, I mean situations like Ridley where they're heavily teased as stage cameos or anything that's not a playable character). That way, nobody can cheap out and escape the penalty of an incorrect guess once their guess has been confirmed/heavily implied to be incorrect. I'll only account for the -10 points only once the game is out and the full roster is revealed, in case Sakurai changes his mind in mid-development. After all, Sakurai always emphasizes that game elements he shows in Directs/The Official site are not final and subject to change.

[Skyblade]

To anyone who hasn't noticed yet, there is a splash page on the amiibo homesite with a bunch of character portraits. Almost all of these are (unsurprisingly) in Smash Bros. The few that aren't confirmed already include Mr. Game and Watch, Lucina, Tom Nook, and Paulina.

Given that Smash Bros. is the first game to use amiibo, and they're supposed to be integrating them as much as they can, you might want to get those guesses in quickly.

Also, I am so totally buying the Lucina figurine as soon as it comes out.

[Agent Proto]

I believe two new characters were just announced today, or maybe one if it's a tag-team.

Fire Emblem's Robin (the Tactician from Fire Emblem Awakening), and Lucina. This is like WHOA. :D

EDIT: Adding in their announcement pictures.

https://31.media.tumblr.com/59c5cacba3e807936ea36fb45e01e72f/tumblr_n8pkh5hPhB1txeasoo1_500.gif

https://31.media.tumblr.com/176de2e3d2678858b9680ea30e34e9f1/tumblr_n8pkh5hPhB1txeasoo2_500.gif

[Skyblade]

I believe two new characters were just announced today, or maybe one if it's a tag-team.

Fire Emblem's Robin (the Tactician from Fire Emblem Awakening), and Lucina. This is like WHOA. :D

In the immortal words of Tychus Findley: "Hell, it's about time."

I've been wondering if we'd see Pair Up show up when we got a character from Awakening, and Lucina was pretty much confirmed when she showed up on the Amiibo splash page (though I had still been worrying). But I admit I was expecting Chrom, not Robin.

Though Robin makes a lot of sense, as we need a Fire Emblem character who doesn't use swords.

They do seem to be different characters, though.

[Elite Lord Sigma]

Double Post since I realized an oversight I made regarding Elite Lord Sigma's guess changes.

I forgot that Samurai Goroh has already been confirmed as an Assist Trophy, so switching him out would be rather cheap since you're essentially erasing an incorrect guess and escaping the -10 penalty when Samurai Goroh's playability has already been deconfirmed. I'll allow you to simply add Shulk, though. Switching out Isaac is okay since he hasn't been deconfirmed/practically deconfirmed.

To make things fair, I guess I should implement a guess lock on deconfirmed/practically deconfirmed characters (when I say practically deconfirmed, I mean situations like Ridley where they're heavily teased as stage cameos or anything that's not a playable character). That way, nobody can cheap out and escape the penalty of an incorrect guess once their guess has been confirmed/heavily implied to be incorrect. I'll only account for the -10 points only once the game is out and the full roster is revealed, in case Sakurai changes his mind in mid-development. After all, Sakurai always emphasizes that game elements he shows in Directs/The Official site are not final and subject to change.

It's all right; that thought didn't even cross my mind when I was making my original post.

As for the new announcements today, I think almost nobody was thinking Robin would be in the game once the Gametsu leaks gained popularity. As a Fire Emblem fan, I like both additions to the roster. My only question is whether Chrom is actually playable (even as a alternate skin for Lucina) or just involved in a Final Smash.

[Agent Proto]

Chrom is part of Robin's Final Smash from my understanding.

[Skyblade]

Chrom is part of Robin's Final Smash from my understanding.

Yep. That definitely seemed to be the case from the video. I can't imagine one character using another character in a combo special attack, so that would confirm Chrom as NPC.

Also, have they removed every transformation? No Sheik/Zelda, no Pokémon Trainer, no Samus/Zero Suit Samus. Did they not like the mechanic or something?

[Elite Lord Sigma]

IGN confirmed that Chrom is not playable. I also fixed my original post per what Evastio said. I'll take my 20 point penalty now.

[Depression Moon]

Damn I should've kept Robin in my bet, but so far only one character from my list didn't make it in or hasn't yet.

[Skyblade]

Is Sakurai trolling us?

Lucina's picture includes the Question Mark (reminding me of the Yuna??? pic during the concert in FFX-2, which was really LeBlanc in disguise), and she doesn't have a direct video link in her reveal page, unlike every other newcomer (though that could just be because Robin took that vid). Her moveset appears to be almost identical to Marth's, with a slight change to Dancing Blade (which could easily be move customization) being the only noted difference.

Granted, she could be faster (Marth was confirmed to be slowed down some, so Lucina could take his place as the faster version), and have different hitboxes with her sword, similar to the way Roy had when he was in Melee. But I think there's a very distinct possibility that she's an alternate costume, like Wire-frame Mac.

Now, I'm all for alternate characters as alternate costumes (where is my Megaman.exe alternate costume, Sakurai?), especially if they're getting unique animations (such as her removing her mask) or attacks (there's also a picture of her on the reveal page with an aerial sword attack that seems different to Marth's). But I want her to be her own character. I want a Lucina amiibo (which I thought was more hope for the confirmation, but Isabelle is on that same splash page, and she's just an Assist Trophy).

I don't know what to think, but I'm kind of sad now.

[Evastio]

With Lucina's and Robin's inclusion, the scores are now as follows:

Evastio: 107
Bolivar: 45
Del Murder: 45
Polnareff: 85
TrollHunter: 45
Deptression Moon: 122
Setsu: 45
Elite Lord Sigma: 100
Flaming Ice: 45
Mister Adequate: 45


have they removed every transformation? No Sheik/Zelda, no Pokémon Trainer, no Samus/Zero Suit Samus. Did they not like the mechanic or something?

They've kept final smash transformations, but character specific transformations were removed because Sakurai wanted to focus on the individual balance and strengths of each specific character instead of balancing them out between transformations. It was mentioned in an article that came up around the same time as the April 8 Smash Direct.


[It's all right; that thought didn't even cross my mind when I was making my original post.

As for the new announcements today, I think almost nobody was thinking Robin would be in the game once the Gametsu leaks gained popularity. As a Fire Emblem fan, I like both additions to the roster. My only question is whether Chrom is actually playable (even as a alternate skin for Lucina) or just involved in a Final Smash.

That's okay. It was an easy mistake, especially with how I'm not accounting for deconfirmed characters in the score until SSB4 is released.

And I have to wonder about the Gematsu leak as well. I still personally think it may hold some weight, since nobody just guesses a character like Wii Fit Trainer correctly.


IGN confirmed that Chrom is not playable. I also fixed my original post per what Evastio said. I'll take my 20 point penalty now.

Well, everyone takes a -10 penalty right now for not having both Lucina and Robin on their list. Though the -10 penalty for Chrom won't be accounted for anyone yet until SSB4 is out and we know the full roster for sure. Sakurai can easily change his mind or trick us (like when he jokingly said said Zero Suit Samus wasn't returning in the April 8 Direct) and I don't want to account for deconfirmed characters until the game is out and we know for sure who isn't playable.

[Skyblade]

Are you sure Lucina is confirmed, though? That "?" in her video, and her being nearly identical to Marth really have me worried.

[Elite Lord Sigma]

Are you sure Lucina is confirmed, though? That "?" in her video, and her being nearly identical to Marth really have me worried.

She's listed as a newcomer on the official site; I don't think you have anything to worry about.

[Skyblade]

I've been watching some of the reaction videos to the Lucina/Robin reveal. I'm loving how well done this last reveal was. So many of the major release followers were almost ho-hum about the character reveals. Between the Palutena leak, the Pac-Man prediction from way early on (ever since Namco was confirmed to be working with Nintendo on the game), and the Gematsu leak, everyone had pretty much predicted the upcomers. Everyone was expecting the Shulk announcement, especially after Monolith retweeted Sakurai's new character announcement. All the fun and excitement was kind of gone, and it had fallen into a "let's see how he'll play".

Then we get that absolutely stunningly crafted video for Robin and Lucina, bringing back Captain Falcon as well.

I think GameXplain put it best:
P1SBFv3nsvc
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In their first story, they're pretty much just explaining that it's Shulk, and what they'll see out of Shulk. Compare the excitement levels and the expectations. It goes from "yeah, this guys coming, let's talk about the roster as a whole because everything's wrapping up, isn't it a shame we looked at our Christmas presents early" to "wow, what the heck is going to happen next". It's great.

I predicted Chrom myself. Just because they tend to pull from the Lords and I wasn't sure they'd be able to handle Robin's customization options, even though I wanted a non-swordsman from Fire Emblem. Personally, I've been preferring Lucina to come in, but thought that Marth's inclusion knocked her out of the lineup. So to see her come in and be backed by Robin shocked me for completely different reasons.

How hyped are you guys to see more oncoming characters? Do any of you want to add more characters in to your guesses?


Edit: Sakurai's pic of the day has confirmed her as a separate character, but seems to be saying she's a clone with slight balance differences. As with Roy, there's a difference in where power is balanced in her blade. She's also slightly shorter. Too be honest, kind of disappointing. I'm hoping that he's saving something behind by pointing out that her physical abilities are identical. But what about, say, Aether?

On the other hand, if she is just a close clone, what does that say about other clones returning? Such as say, a certain character who would be considered a Lucario clone if he didn't come first?

[Elite Lord Sigma]

Assuming this was translated correctly, it seems that next month's issue of CoroCoro will cover all of the characters available in the 3DS version of the game. (http://www.destructoid.com/every-3ds-super-smash-fighter-stage-in-next-month-s-corocoro-278137.phtml) I'm sure I've also heard that the two versions will have the same character rosters, so we're getting close to the end of this game either way.

[Agent Proto]

No, they won't reveal every characters in the game. I believe they meant they'll show all the characters that are already revealed up to this point. That would likely kill most of the hype for the game if every character was known immediately before release.

[Skyblade]

No, they won't reveal every characters in the game. I believe they meant they'll show all the characters that are already revealed up to this point. That would likely kill most of the hype for the game if every character was known immediately before release.

Yep, I have to agree here. No way they have the whole list. Most Nintendo employees don't even have that list. Sakurai is not going to use CoroCoro as an announcement platform. Nor am I expecting every character to be announced before release day. I'm guessing Jigglypuff as a returning character will at least remain hidden, and likely a couple others.

[Skyblade]

We've just announced two new characters who will be joining the fray in the upcoming Super Smash Bros. for 3DS and Wii U. One is Robin, the avatar from Fire Emblem: Awakening, and the other is Lucina, a swordswoman who plays an important role in the same title. I'll skip over the details.

"What? Not Chrom!?" I suspect a lot of you will ask. Of course, Chrom is quite popular, being the protagonist of FE:A and all. However, I chose Robin and Lucina, and I will elaborate on my reasoning.

Robin appears in the game as a Tactician and functions much like a Mystic Knight (note: FF terminology, but equivalent to magic swordsman). I thought to utilize his all-around nature by assigning swordplay to his Smash attacks and magic tomes to his special attacks--that is, allow him to use magic.

His neutral special is thunder magic that grows stronger the larger you charge it. He uses fire magic for his side special, and wind magic for recovery as his up special. Although Robin doesn't use dark magic in FE:A, I decided to assign it as his down special. It isn't the first time I've given moves to a character that they don't use in their respective game in order to capture certain aspects of the original title.

I also implemented the system used in FE:A, in which tomes break after overuse. Likewise, I included a similar system for the Levin Sword, which breaks after a certain number of uses. However, both the tomes and the Levin Sword will quickly regenerate after a set period of time.

Lucina uses the same techniques as Marth, a fighter with whom I'm sure most of you are already familiar. I even went so far as to make their strength, speed, and special attacks almost identical. However, what sets Lucina apart is the fact that the strength of her attacks is uniform along the blade. Marth's playstyle emulates the elegant swordplay of a fencer by dealing more damage when he strikes with the tip of his blade, but the damage Lucina deals is evened out. Thus, I think that Lucina will be much easier than Marth for novice players to play with.

I played all the way through FE:A and really wanted to include a character from that rich cast in Smash Bros. Naturally, I considered adding Chrom to the roster, but the decision wasn't easy by any means. At the end of the day, Chrom would just end up being another plain-old sword-wielder like Marth and Ike. Compared with other characters, he lacks any unique characteristics.

Conversely, when the idea of including Robin came to mind, conceiving the character was so easy that I immediately saw how it would work. From standards to specials, grabs to throws, all aspects of his moveset just fell into place. Not only did he possess characteristics unlike other fighters, but he also captured the essence of the Fire Emblem series. It was perfect!

In the end, if a game isn't fun, then there's no point. Of course, it would be really easy to make a game by churning out a ton of similar characters, but that's not how I produce games.

Initially, I had considered including Lucina as one of Marth's alternate costumes. After all, she has a close relationship with him in FE:A. In such cases, even if two characters' names and voices differ, as long as they function the same way, I assign them as alternate costumes. The Wii Fit Trainers, Villagers, and Robin are examples of this setup.

Something I thought was very relevant. It comes from a Famitsu interview with Sakurai, and it gives a ton of insight into his character choosing and character building process.

We are still likely to get a few newcomers yet, but this also gives a lot of hope for other clone characters, either as returning characters, or as alternate outfits. Anyone want to adjust final guesses as we enter the main stretch?

Don't worry, Sakurai. Robin can reclass to Dark Mage or Sorceror, so it's not Out Of Character to use Dark Magic, just Out Of Class.

[Skyblade]

Sorry for yet another sequential post, but I found more information worth noting:

Apparently Corocoro is just demoing the E3 build, not discussing any further roster reveals. It was just a mistranslation, from what we can tell.

Linkies. (http://attackofthefanboy.com/news/super-smash-bros-roster-will-fully-revealed-corocoro/)



Also, does anyone else find the lack of villain confirmation suspicious? Wolf, Wario, Ganondorf, Meta Knight, Mewtwo... Where'd they all go?

[Agent Proto]

No surprise there. :roll2

[Elite Lord Sigma]

Per Sakurai's picture album on Miiverse and Imgur, Takaharu is in the game as an Assist Trophy.

[Evastio]

Shulk's been officially confirmed as a playable character in SSB4.

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/shulk/main.png

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/shulk/screen-4.jpg

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/shulk/screen-6.jpg

http://www.smashbros.com/images/character/shulk/screen-3.jpg

The scores are now as follows:


Evastio: 117
Bolivar: 40
Del Murder: 40
Polnareff: 80
TrollHunter: 40
Deptression Moon: 117
Setsu: 40
Elite Lord Sigma: 110
Flaming Ice: 55
Mister Adequate: 40

Also, due to all the leaks and SSB4 coming out for 3DS in Japan in less than a month (and us knowing the roster from that), no more changes will be allowed for people's betting lists.

I should also mention that newcomers will only be counted when they're officially revealed by Nintendo or when the game comes out and we have a lot of people (Japanese players or importers) that can confirm a newcomer is indeed playable. As real as the leak may be (and even I think it's 100% real after seeing the leaked Shulk image match the official Shulk image), it doesn't seem right to account for them in this game before Nintendo reveals them or SSB4 is out.

[Skyblade]

So there's a "final build" demo out in Japan. Getting info from it in waves. No real new character info, but there is some little hints and things being thrown in.

Fox has a recolor using Wolf's fur and eyepiece color scheme, which has people thinking Wolf may be gone.

The Infantry and Tanks Assist Trophy is back, but there is as yet no sign of Ray (from Custom Robo) or Isaac (from Golden Sun). This is the first confirmation we've gotten of one of the previously unlockable Assist Trophies from Brawl returning (besides Shadow, who's third party, so not considered the same). Isaac is currently my most hoped for newcomer, so having a revelation from his peer group is kind of exciting for me.

[Depression Moon]

But I want an Advance Wars character. This leaks crushes my hope for Paper Mario as a character, but at least we're getting Duck Hunt Dog.

[Skyblade]

But I want an Advance Wars character.

To be fair, the Pac Man ghosts and Riki from Xenoblade have proved that characters can show up in multiple ways. They can be stage elements and part of a move, or part of a move and an Assist Trophy.

So it's conceivable that we may get an Advance Wars character who uses the units in his attacks, acting as a sort of commander.



Extremely unlikely, perhaps, but possible.


This leaks crushes my hope for Paper Mario as a character, but at least we're getting Duck Hunt Dog.

I'd have rather had Paper Mario over Dr. Mario any day.

I'd also be quite happy if Duck Hunt Dog never made playable status, though. Duck Hunt would make a fantastic AT, but it's a horrible choice for character status.

[Elite Lord Sigma]

The final roster has more or less been confirmed through the Japanese release. However, there's a definite possibility that more characters will be added through DLC. Will this thread deal with potential DLC characters in any way?

[Evastio]

So Duck Hunt Dog, Bowser Jr., and Dark Pit have been confirmed to be the final newcomers to the SSB4 roster according to people who own the Japanese 3DS version of SSB4. They've even received the "You've unlocked every fighter" notice/achievement and unlocked the "True All-Star Mode", confirming that the roster is indeed final barring 3DS-Wii U link up unlocks or DLC. For this game, though, we're only accounting for the roster that's accessible through normal gameplay, and not outside methods.

Here's the unlock screens for the newcomers:

http://www.ssbwiki.com/images/2/2e/Duck_Hunt_SSB4.png

http://www.ssbwiki.com/images/8/8b/Bowser_Jr._SSB4.png

http://www.ssbwiki.com/images/0/06/Dark_Pit_SSB4.png

The final scores are as follows:

Evastio: 82
Bolivar: -15
Del Murder: 15
Polnareff: 35
TrollHunter: 5
Deptression Moon: 92
Setsu: 10 (I fixed up the score since he had Shulk in white text and I didn't notice it)
Elite Lord Sigma: 65
Flaming Ice: -5
Mister Adequate: 15

If there's any errors, please notify me.

Congratulations Depression Moon for winning the SSB4 newcomer betting game!! And thanks for all who participated!!

[Depression Moon]

Yo, I took the crown. Good stuff Evastio, I thought we were going to tie since the last time I looked we had the same score.

[Skyblade]

My gosh, this newcomer list is disappointing.

[Depression Moon]

I can't complain everyone I've betted on made it through with the exception of Paper Mario. The only new one I absolutely don't like is Mii. I can't wait to get a Wii U now and fuck up people with some Little Mac, Wii Fit Trainer, and Palutena. I want to try out everyone though with the exception of Mii. I find it weird how they left out Ice Climbers. Wolf and Lucas I can understand, but the Ice Climbers were an entity of their own and not clones. It's going to be hard determining my mains this time around. I know I'm going to keep Meta Knight, but the others are a mystery.

[Agent Proto]

The reason the Ice Climbers are not in is because of some difficulties with the 3DS, well I remember that Sakurai mentioned that he was having a difficult time with them on the 3DS. So that there is why they're not on the roster.

[Skyblade]

I can kind of accept characters I like not making it into the final game.

I am having a really, really hard time accepting one of my most wanted characters not only not being playable, but actually being cut from the final product.

Tell me, Nintendo. Were you having technical difficulties with Isaac's Assist Trophy as well?! Was the Move Psynergy just too powerful for the 3DS?! Was the musical track from Brawl simply too AWESOME for the 3DS's poor little processor?!

There is no Isaac Assist Trophy (Ray from Custom Robo is actually cut as well). Why?! Isn't part of the 3DS game celebrating your handheld history?! Why the heck would you cut one of the greatest highlights of the GBA?!

[Fynn]

Hey, maybe this is kinda off-topic, but there's a possibility one retailer accidentally leaked the WiiU version release date.

http://static1.gamespot.com/uploads/original/1535/15354745/2655173-smash.jpg