PDA

View Full Version : EoFF XXVII Game Thread - Day Five - Showdown in the Velvet Room



Pages : [1] 2 3

[M] Mom – Host
02-14-2017, 08:11 PM
Mafia XXVII
Nightmare at Gekkoukan High


It all happened so fast. It was just an ordinary evening at Gekkoukan High. There were reports of suspicious activity occurring at the school after dark, just like what happened before summer break. All the members of S.E.E.S arrived to investigate, splitting up individually to scout the area, because such a plan could never backfire.



A scream pierced through silence. Heads turned and senses sharpened. Another scream, but different. It came from the Student Council room. Everyone rushed to see what had happened. When they arrived, they saw a terrible sight. One of their own, their co-leader Minako, lay dead on the ground, blood pooling in a small circle from under her.

[M] Minako was a paradox played by Minako!


Your next memory is waking up to a strange room. It was purple, velvet drapes flowing to the floor. To your left and right, the other members of S.E.E.S have also just awoken. At the back, sitting in front a huge elevator grate, was a large-nosed man. He had a wierd smile.

Welcome to the Velvet Room



"The Moon: mystery. The Tower: disaster. The Devil: bonds.



Among you, three are members of Strega, an evil organisation bent on destroying the world. That includes Elizabeth and Theodore; my assistants may have also been compromised. You must find them. I have trapped you all in the Velvet Room, use this time to find the traitors and deal with them. They have already killed one, and they will kill again.

I cannot interfere. Best of luck to you all."


Rules



Voting
When you are voting, please do so in this format:
##vote: name

You may unvote for people. In this case:
##unvote: name

You can also vote for no lynch:
##vote: no lynch

If at anytime, a majority of votes is reached (the cap will be announced at the start of each day), then that day ends immediately and the person is lynched or no lynch comes into effect.

If there is no majority, then the one with the most votes will be lynched (or no lynch). If there is a tie at the end of the day, sudden death comes into effect.

Day & Night Phases

Day phases (with the exception of Day Zero) will last a total of 48 hours. During this time, you must chat and discuss amongst yourselves the identity of the scummy Mafia/Strega members. Your vote is also essential during this phase.

Night phases will last a total of 24 hours, or until all actions have been submitted. Night kills and other actions can take place during this phase. To submit a night action, please Mognet me, though your Role PM will have the full details (if you guys want a fixed night phase, we can discuss it in the discussion thread!)

Basic Rules



Unless specifically mentioned in your Assignment PMs, all Mafia related discussion must happen in the Official game thread. Please do not discuss the game using instant messengers, IRC, Private Messages, voice chats, phone calls, snail mail etc. etc.
Do not reveal your role privately to each other. You can of course role claim as part of your strategy in this thread. Just don't do it outside the game.
Play nice. Even if you are using second accounts, don't resort to flaming and whatnot. Kill each other without resorting to being mean.
Please make all posts in the Game thread under your specific Mafia accounts.
Play fair. Also known as the "don't be an ass" rule. Being an ass includes cheating, diverging completely from your assigned role, going back and deleting or editing all your posts, using asshole-ish methods to find out information about other people's roles, etc.
Do NOT use your Mafia accounts to post in any non-Mafia related threads. All of the roles were assigned randomly to a player and then those were randomly assigned to the character.
Don’t share with others who you are or what your password is or what your role is.
Don't edit your posts in the game thread. If you wish to make further statements, please do so in a new post.


Roles in Use

The following roles are in use:



2 Mafia Goons
1 Mafia Roleblocker
5 Vanilla Townies
1 Town Cop
1 Compulsive Doctor
1 Town Tracker



Current Players


7172471677717107168371692
71679716977172271690
7171971705


Victim Log

- [M] Yukari | Vanilla Townie | Lynched on the First Day
- [M] Theodore | Vanilla Townie | Lynched on the Second Day
- [M] Minato | Vanilla Townie | Killed on the Second Night
- [M] Koromaru | Mafia Goon | Lynched on the Third Day
- [M] Aigis | Compulsive Doctor | Killed on the Third Night
- [M] Ken | Mafia Goon | Lynched on the Fourth Day
- [M] Mitsuru | Edgy Cop | Killed on the Fourth Night
- [M] Elizabeth | Mafia Roleblocker | Lynched on the Fifth Day

- [M] Akihiko | Vanilla Townie | Survived the Final Day
- [M] Junpei | Town Tracker | Survived the Final Day
- [M] Shinjiro | Vanilla Townie | Survived the Final Day

Jump To...

- Day Zero (http://home.eyesonff.com/showthread.php/169475-EoFF-XXVII-Game-Thread-Night-Two-Requiem-After-Dark?p=3653995&viewfull=1#post3653995) | Posts #3 to #21
- Day One (http://home.eyesonff.com/showthread.php/169475-EoFF-XXVII-Game-Thread-Night-Two-Requiem-After-Dark?p=3654101&viewfull=1#post3654101) | Posts #22 to #113
- Day Two (http://home.eyesonff.com/showthread.php/169475-EoFF-XXVII-Game-Thread-Night-Two-Requiem-After-Dark?p=3654389&viewfull=1#post3654389) | Posts #114 to #286
- Day Three (http://home.eyesonff.com/showthread.php/169475-EoFF-XXVII-Game-Thread-Day-Three-Tension-in-the-Velvet-Room?p=3654933&viewfull=1#post3654933) | Posts #287 to #440
- Day Four (http://home.eyesonff.com/showthread.php/169475-EoFF-XXVII-Game-Thread-Day-Four-Drama-in-the-Velvet-Room?p=3655464&viewfull=1#post3655464) | Posts #441 to #532
- Day Five (http://home.eyesonff.com/showthread.php/169475-EoFF-XXVII-Game-Thread-Day-Five-Showdown-in-the-Velvet-Room?p=3655706&viewfull=1#post3655706) | Posts #533 to #563



Day Five
Final Phase

[M] Trevor - Gay Dad
02-14-2017, 10:05 PM
Day 0 begins.

[M] Mom – Host
02-14-2017, 10:22 PM
Sorry for the delay, I had to go in all the accounts and change their passwords. All the role PMs have now been sent out.

Therefore, let's get everyone started!



| Day Zero |
Today ends when at least eight accounts have posted in the game thread, or twenty-four hours have elapsed (22:20, 15th Feb).

There is no lynch during this phase. Please use this time to acquaint yourselves with characters, role-play, or any burning questions you have.

[M] Joe - Army Dad
02-14-2017, 10:33 PM
Checking in!

[M] Jeff - Single Dad
02-14-2017, 11:03 PM
Hey guys! Looking forward to a fun game~

[M] Eizen
02-14-2017, 11:48 PM
Ready to deploy.

[M] Adama
02-15-2017, 02:07 AM
I am here.

[M] Colette
02-15-2017, 02:08 AM
I'll show you my true power!

[M] D'Anna
02-15-2017, 02:37 AM
Hey everyone.

So assuming there is a night phase that follows this day phase, there will almost certainly be 3 mafia to 7 town. This means we've effectively got two cracks at lynching mafia before town is donezo.

I think we can do it.

[M] Joe - Army Dad
02-15-2017, 02:52 AM
I doubt that. I think Day Zero is just for everyone to check in. If it worked as normal then wouldn't it just be Day 1?

[M] Mom – Host
02-15-2017, 02:59 AM
My assistant Elizabeth is correct: Day Zero had no lynch phase, and it does no go into 'Night Zero'. Day Zero rolls immediately into Day One after eight people have posted in the thread, or twenty-four hours have elapsed.

I made a Day Zero so people who had any big problems or questions could ask them safely without it affecting the actual game once it starts. Think of Day Zero as like, the first three or so hours of Day One - banter, taunting, role-play, etc.

It's experimental, though, definitely. I just thought it'd be nice to allocate some time for people to get acquainted with their accounts before the 'game' part of Mafia begins.

With seven accounts having posted, one more player needs to 'check in' before Day One commences.

[M] D'Anna
02-15-2017, 03:02 AM
Elizabeth;3654024']I doubt that. I think Day Zero is just for everyone to check in. If it worked as normal then wouldn't it just be Day 1?

Maybe. I guess it's possible that the progression goes Day 0 -> Day 1 -> Night 1.

EDIT: Looks like that's the case.

[M] Mom – Host
02-15-2017, 03:05 AM
Yup, you've got it. Game progression is Day 0 -> Day 1 -> Night 1 -> Day 2 -> Night 2 and so on and so forth. I hope everyone's on the same page!

(also, I'm failing badly and given up imitating Igor's mannerisms. He's too well-written to emulate)

[M] D'Anna
02-15-2017, 03:23 AM
Really wish this were Day 1. I have a few suspects in mind already.

[M] Eizen
02-15-2017, 03:50 AM
Impossible. Insufficient data to single out any suspects. Is this what humans call, "going with their gut?"

[M] Jeff - Single Dad
02-15-2017, 04:16 AM
Akihiko;3654029']Really wish this were Day 1. I have a few suspects in mind already.

Hoh, now isn't that interesting. Aigis is right, it seems pretty early for suspects, but I'm certainly curious and looking forward to hearing your claims... we will see if they end up being convincing or not then.

[M] D'Anna
02-15-2017, 05:17 AM
Let's just say that there's a lot more information to be learned from someone's opening post than you would think.

[M] Adama
02-15-2017, 07:06 AM
What an interesting notion. I look forward to hearing your rather peculiar speculation.

[M] Trevor - Gay Dad
02-15-2017, 01:22 PM
I look forward to hearing the notions too. This is either great strategy, or over thinking everything.

[M] Mom – Host
02-15-2017, 05:35 PM
Igor here. Just to let you all know that seven players have checked in. There is about four and a half hours remaining.

[M] Greg - Hot Dad
02-15-2017, 05:54 PM
Akihiko laying down some suspicions already! Gotta admit, I do too. That is, it's all of you.

Hello team, I am also here.

[M] Mom – Host
02-15-2017, 06:01 PM
Aaaaand that's eight. Day Zero has now ended.


| Day One |
Today ends immediately when a majority is reached on either a player or the 'no lynch' option. If no majority is reached, the day will time out 48 hours from now (18:00 GMT, 17th).



The lynch cap for today is six.

[M] Eizen
02-15-2017, 06:08 PM
Akihiko;3654039']Let's just say that there's a lot more information to be learned from someone's opening post than you would think.

Analysis complete. Attempt to cause dissent and sow division deemed to be of high probability. Presence of non-obvious information determined to be unlikely. Suspicion level for subject Akihiko increased to 20%. Further observation and analysis required.

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-15-2017, 06:59 PM
Hey, everybody! Sorry I couldn't say hi to you all earlier, it was past my bedtime.

[M] Joe - Army Dad
02-15-2017, 07:21 PM
Igor;3654101']Aaaaand that's eight. Day Zero has now ended.


| Day One |
Today ends immediately when a majority is reached on either a player or the 'no lynch' option. If no majority is reached, the day will time out 48 hours from now (18:00 GMT, 17th).



The lynch cap for today is six.


Is the no lynch option just for Day One or will it be available throughout the game?

[M] Mom – Host
02-15-2017, 07:27 PM
No lynch will be an option throughout the game. It is up to you clever people to decide whether you want to use 'no lynch' or not.

[M] Adama
02-15-2017, 08:03 PM
I must say I'm rather fascinated by the rather placid speed in which this case is progressing. I would hate to disrupt it.

##Vote : [M] Akihiko

Mr Sanada, could you kindly take this vote merely as incentive to clarify your reasoning? I mean not to "offend" your sensibilities.

[M] D'Anna
02-15-2017, 09:23 PM
Theodore;3654123']##Vote : [M] Akihiko

Mr Sanada, could you kindly take this vote merely as incentive to clarify your reasoning? I mean not to "offend" your sensibilities.

Why are you so interested in my reasoning? Notice that I never said who my suspects were, yet here you are voting for me over it. Perhaps you're insecure and think I'm referring to you.

[M] Colette
02-15-2017, 09:57 PM
I think sempai is trying to deflect the question instead of answering it. I dunno if he's intentionally baiting or what. Why sempai?

[M] Joe - Army Dad
02-15-2017, 10:43 PM
Alright let's get our ducks in a row here:

People who have posted and checked in:
Yukari
Akihiko
Theodore
Elizabeth
Ken
Aigis
Mitsuru
Junpei
Shinjiro

Haven't checked in:
Minato
Koromaru

It's still early so I don't think that those two being absent is cause for alarm just yet. We'll see though.

Votes:
##Vote : [M] Akihiko - Theodore

[M] D'Anna
02-15-2017, 11:03 PM
Elizabeth;3654139']Haven't checked in:
Minato
Koromaru

It's still early so I don't think that those two being absent is cause for alarm just yet. We'll see though.

I agree. Normally I would suggest that these two "laying low" is suspect, but because people have been fairly busy lately I don't think this is a good tell. However, there are definitely others who at least seem to be guilty of laying low.

[M] Jeff - Single Dad
02-15-2017, 11:14 PM
Well now. Let's get this started proper.

##Vote: [M] Aigis

[M] Eizen
02-15-2017, 11:33 PM
##Vote : [M] Akihiko

Evasiveness is highly disconcerting. Continued division probable given refusal to cooperate. I must vote for Akihiko Senpai in the absence of further information.

[M] Trevor - Gay Dad
02-15-2017, 11:55 PM
I have just gotten off work and am ready to join in day one activity. Going to read and catch up on the day.

[M] D'Anna
02-16-2017, 12:14 AM
Aigis;3654145']##Vote : [M] Akihiko

Evasiveness is highly disconcerting. Continued division probable given refusal to cooperate. I must vote for Akihiko Senpai in the absence of further information.

Yet you completely ignore Shinjiro evading my response? Interesting.

[M] Jeff - Single Dad
02-16-2017, 12:18 AM
Wait I evaded some sort of response? I didn't even realize you were talking about me there. Was it my opening post that caught your attention so? Actually I think the far bigger irony is that Aigis herself completely ignored my vote for her in a post where she called evasiveness disconcerting.

[M] Eizen
02-16-2017, 12:20 AM
Akihiko;3654149']
Aigis;3654145']##Vote : [M] Akihiko

Evasiveness is highly disconcerting. Continued division probable given refusal to cooperate. I must vote for Akihiko Senpai in the absence of further information.

Yet you completely ignore Shinjiro evading my response? Interesting.

Your response was an evasion, hence you gave nothing one could reply to except to repeat the earlier request for elaboration and to increase the level of suspicion one can attribute to your actions.


Shinjiro;3654151']Wait I evaded some sort of response? I didn't even realize you were talking about me there. Was it my opening post that caught your attention so? Actually I think the far bigger irony is that Aigis herself completely ignored my vote for her in a post where she called evasiveness disconcerting.

Your vote was most likely assigned solely to provoke a response and elicit more information. Therefore your vote is of little interest to my efforts to gain more information from Akihiko Senpai, and will not have the desired effect since I have no information to give.

[M] Mom – Host
02-16-2017, 12:25 AM
I would just like to remind people to not edit their posts in any form in the game thread! Even if nothing is deleted and the edit serves only as a way to append information, editing posts is against the rules of the game.

Double, even triple posting is allowed during Mafia games. So if you post something and think "oh snap, I need to say this as well!", just do it in a new post.

Thanks everyone!

[M] Trevor - Gay Dad
02-16-2017, 12:41 AM
I am still undecided here. Though I agree Alihiko is acting a little suspect, I'd like to hear why he was so suspicious of people before I cast a vote.

[M] Eizen
02-16-2017, 12:44 AM
And I am more than happy to consider changing my vote if he shares his reasoning.

[M] D'Anna
02-16-2017, 01:59 AM
Shinjiro;3654151']Wait I evaded some sort of response? I didn't even realize you were talking about me there. Was it my opening post that caught your attention so? Actually I think the far bigger irony is that Aigis herself completely ignored my vote for her in a post where she called evasiveness disconcerting.

My mistake, I confused you with Theodore.

Theodore is definitely pretty suspect. In general, players who type very little in their opening post are more likely to be mafia. This is because they don't want to stand out much, nor do they want to contribute as much to the discussion and risk putting a target on their back.

[M] Adama
02-16-2017, 02:43 PM
I was unaware my rather...terse method of communicating was somehow indicative of my guilt. Especially since I was attempting to communicate in-character.

Your logic seems flimsy and your rather defensive accusation has done little to assuage my worries.

[M] Adama
02-16-2017, 02:51 PM
As far as standing out, I was the first person to give a vote, was I not? Why would you christen the voting booth in an attempt to remain under the radar? It seems more likely to draw attention as opposed to avoiding it.

And even if my strategy was to avoid making what they call, a splash, that isn't necessarily evident of any alignment in a vacuum. Many townspeople with power roles or merely cautious play styles do the same. It's not uncommon for mafia to try and puppetmaster the game as well.

How curious.

[M] Mom – Host
02-16-2017, 04:30 PM
If my math is correct (which it often isn't), you all have approximately 25.5 hours remaining for Day One. If you guys want official time checks or vote tally checks at any time, just Mognet or even VM me with a request and I'll get that sorted.

I have another update: unfortunately, Bubba has left the game due to understandable reasons (which means I can't see him role-play as a cute dog), but thankfully someone has kindly volunteered to take command of [M] Koromaru.

I will continue to monitor the situation with [M] Minato.

[M] Joe - Army Dad
02-16-2017, 04:44 PM
Oh so I was right! We were just missing at least one of them due to inactivity. With Minato being monitored, I'm guess it's also an inactivity big and not a suspicious one. Let's get this all in order then so we know what we're working with.

People who have posted and checked in:
Yukari
Akihiko
Theodore
Elizabeth
Ken
Aigis
Mitsuru
Junpei
Shinjiro


Haven't checked in:
Minato
Koromaru - REPLACED


Votes:
[M] Akihiko - Theodore, Aigis (2/6)
[M] Aigis - Shinjiro (1/6)

We still have a ways to go for this day and so far we only have 3 out of the possible 10 voting (if you count koromaru, cause i'm hoping about the replacement posting soon, and not minato)

I'd like to hear from more people, if possible! I find some actions suspicious but that's two votes for Akihiko now.

[M] Joe - Army Dad
02-16-2017, 04:45 PM
activity thing* not big. I apologize for the typo.

[M] Greg - Hot Dad
02-16-2017, 05:08 PM
That certainly is some ridiculous reasoning you've got there, Akihiko. If that were the case then we must have 5 mafia here because 5 players made minimal "I'm here" posts.

[M] Kurt - Cool Dad
02-16-2017, 06:44 PM
Arf arf!

[Sorry I'm late! There was a frog that neede to be punished!]

Awoo!

[Let's get the bad guys! Give me a moment while I reread the whole thread.]

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-16-2017, 06:53 PM
Can... can I stroke you Koromaru? Your fur looks so soft and fluffy! :love:

Wow, you guys all move fast. All these suspicions flying around are a bit much for me to keep up with: I'm only 10, after all.

I'm not surely sure what to think, to be honest. People piled onto Akihiko a little too quickly for my liking. We should probably vote for somebody though, in my experience voting for "no lynch" doesn't seem to do you any favours.

[M] Kurt - Cool Dad
02-16-2017, 06:54 PM
Bork!

[To be perfectly honest, this is pretty tough. No one's really acting in a way that could raise any suspicions. But then, perhaps people who are the first to point fingers are acting suspicious? But maybe they're just trying to move things forward?]

*yawn*

[I'll wait a bit with my vote. We still haven't heard from Arisato-dono, and I want to hear from as many people as possible before making my decision.]

[M] Apollo
02-16-2017, 07:22 PM
I'm here.

I'm not convinced Akihiko is Mafia. His behavior is indicative of:

A) Someone trying to analyze as best they can with the limited information they have;
B) The most obvious Mafia in the world;
C) The most obvious Mafia in the world attempting a double bluff.

In a group this size, C is a risk.

I feel the reactions to Akihiko's blindshoots are more indicative of intent than anything else.

I am undecided on all fronts, but my instincts say A. Apologies that I couldn't contribute further.

[M] Joe - Army Dad
02-16-2017, 07:34 PM
Minato;3654204']I'm here.

I'm not convinced Akihiko is Mafia. His behavior is indicative of:

A) Someone trying to analyze as best they can with the limited information they have;
B) The most obvious Mafia in the world;
C) The most obvious Mafia in the world attempting a double bluff.

In a group this size, C is a risk.

I feel the reactions to Akihiko's blindshoots are more indicative of intent than anything else.

I am undecided on all fronts, but my instincts say A. Apologies that I couldn't contribute further.
Oh, there you are. That's everyone! I was a little worried we'd have to have another replacement. But you're here now, so we're all good.

I'm inclined to agree here. I don't know if Akihiko is mafia, he did act a little dodgey but they aren't screaming MAFIA to me.


Akihiko;3654126']
Theodore;3654123']##Vote : [M] Akihiko

Mr Sanada, could you kindly take this vote merely as incentive to clarify your reasoning? I mean not to "offend" your sensibilities.

Why are you so interested in my reasoning? Notice that I never said who my suspects were, yet here you are voting for me over it. Perhaps you're insecure and think I'm referring to you.
Although, this response is very strange. Why would you not want to give your reasoning in a game where your only advantage is talking? Basically, how I read this was

A:"You're suspicious"
T:"Well why do you say that?"
A: "Why are you so obsessed with me? I don't have to tell you anything."

That's just very... strange

[M] Apollo
02-16-2017, 07:43 PM
I initially ignored that, as I felt it was simply a panicked reaction to a vote. You raise a good point, however.

Akihiko: what is the reason you don't feel comfortable explaining your thoughts?

[M] Jeff - Single Dad
02-16-2017, 08:55 PM
Ah, but did Akibro really not want to give his reasoning? I feel you're jumping to conclusions there. Let's see first what he has to say.

[M] D'Anna
02-16-2017, 09:43 PM
Theodore;3654184']I was unaware my rather...terse method of communicating was somehow indicative of my guilt. Especially since I was attempting to communicate in-character.

Your logic seems flimsy and your rather defensive accusation has done little to assuage my worries.

Except I never once said it was a solid indication of guilt. As I explained, I've used it as a tell on some mafia. The three who typed the least in their opening post were you (Theodore), Aigis, Elizabeth and Junpei. That's where my suspicions begin --- but this is not the determining factor I use to decide whether or not a person is mafia.

My accusation was not "defensive." I was the one who started the game off by stating I have a few suspects in mind.


Theodore;3654185']As far as standing out, I was the first person to give a vote, was I not? Why would you christen the voting booth in an attempt to remain under the radar? It seems more likely to draw attention as opposed to avoiding it.

And even if my strategy was to avoid making what they call, a splash, that isn't necessarily evident of any alignment in a vacuum. Many townspeople with power roles or merely cautious play styles do the same. It's not uncommon for mafia to try and puppetmaster the game as well.

How curious.

Yes, and you also ignored my direct response to your vote.

Putting a vote on someone who has a list of suspects isn't standing out. It's lazy. Instead of doing some critical thinking or analysis on your own, you're just voting for someone who already has in hopes that they'll give you the information.

What I also find curious is how two of the four people I initially suspected (Aigis and Theodore) are bandwagon voting someone on Day 1.


Mitsuru;3654196']That certainly is some ridiculous reasoning you've got there, Akihiko. If that were the case then we must have 5 mafia here because 5 players made minimal "I'm here" posts.

No, some of the other posts are different. There's nothing really concrete about what I'm suggesting, I've just effectively used this as a tell in past games. I'm going with my gut on this one, and it usually leads me to the right answer.

[M] Eizen
02-16-2017, 10:15 PM
##unvote: [M] Akihiko

Upon further analysis I am more convinced that he has no actual insight and is simply either trying to stir the pot or possesses flaws in his critical thinking that lead him to believe he sees important information where none exists. The former may be helpful, but the latter indicates a need to return to his studies. Exams are coming up soon Senpai. We would not want to see you go into them ill prepared. I myself have been studying the poetry readings lately to avoid a repeat of my last test result. Sadly human emotion and metaphor are still very difficult for me.

[M] Colette
02-16-2017, 10:37 PM
*pets Koro-chan*

Honestly, there's little data to suggest anything right now. We need more information to contextualize!

##vote: no lynch

[M] Greg - Hot Dad
02-16-2017, 10:49 PM
Apologies for my general lack of activity, it's been a busy few days.

Fair enough Akihiko. Still think it's a bit ridic, but you do you, man. I do wonder what you have to say in regards to Elizabeth's comments.

A no lynch may be a safe bet for this day. But then, we've still got a bit of time yet, someone may throw themselves under the bus by the end of the day.

[M] Trevor - Gay Dad
02-16-2017, 11:32 PM
A no lynch is giving the mafia a free kill with no threat. Really only mafia love a no lynch scenario.

[M] Colette
02-17-2017, 01:34 AM
Statistically we are far more likely to vote for a Townie than a Mafia given the little evidence or information we have. It is the first day and we have a few posts that may or may not be suspicious but don't have sufficient data to contextualize. There are 3 Mafia and 8 Townies. Meaning we have slightly less than 30% chance to randomly vote for Mafia. So I would rather not take a shot in the dark and hinder our cause.

If anything, anyone aggressively calling for lynching particular person on the first day would seem suspicious. There's just insufficient data.

[M] Mom – Host
02-17-2017, 02:51 AM
Before I go to bed for the night, I'll leave you guys with a current time check and current vote tally:


| Day One |


Fifteen hours and nine minutes remain


Aigis - 1 / 6 (Shinjiro)
Akihiko - 1 / 6 (Theodore, Aigis)
No Lynch - 1 / 6 (Yukari)

(Aigis, Akihiko, Elizabeth, Junpei, Ken, Koromaru, Minato, and Mitsuru are yet to vote)


As it stands, we are going to a three-way sudden death. In the event of sudden death, any majority will close the day immediately and that person is lynched.

[M] Jeff - Single Dad
02-17-2017, 03:24 AM
Junpei;3654225']A no lynch is giving the mafia a free kill with no threat. Really only mafia love a no lynch scenario.

While that's not precisely true as the cop could get a lucky scum inspection or the doc a lucky victim protection which arguably puts the advantage back in the town's hands, statistically speaking it's generally still pretty much preferable for the mafia to go lynchless.

Meanwhile. I've gotten a little more suspicious of a certain other person.

##Vote: Yukari

I probably don't need to explain myself to Akibro, but since exchange of information is everything I see no reason to stay on the down low. Why are you concerned with what "seems suspicious"? Is it perhaps because dodging suspicion is exactly what you're trying to do? Also, anything that limits discourse is a no-no for me.

[M] D'Anna
02-17-2017, 03:28 AM
Elizabeth;3654205']Why would you not want to give your reasoning in a game where your only advantage is talking?

Nothing strange about it. I gave reasoning afterwards (which you either didn't read or ignored), and responded because Theodore's post seemed like an unprovoked reaction to a blanket and non-specific suspicion I had.


Yukari;3654223']Honestly, there's little data to suggest anything right now. We need more information to contextualize!

##vote: no lynch

What an unproductive post.

This might as well read "I don't want to talk and I don't want to vote anyone."


Mitsuru;3654224']Fair enough Akihiko. Still think it's a bit ridic, but you do you, man. I do wonder what you have to say in regards to Elizabeth's comments.

Using intuition and instinct is really all you have when you first start a game of mafia. Couldn't be farther from "ridiculous."


Junpei;3654225']A no lynch is giving the mafia a free kill with no threat. Really only mafia love a no lynch scenario.

Agreed. Who do you think is most suspicious right now?

[M] D'Anna
02-17-2017, 03:33 AM
Yukari;3654229']Statistically we are far more likely to vote for a Townie than a Mafia given the little evidence or information we have. It is the first day and we have a few posts that may or may not be suspicious but don't have sufficient data to contextualize. There are 3 Mafia and 8 Townies. Meaning we have slightly less than 30% chance to randomly vote for Mafia. So I would rather not take a shot in the dark and hinder our cause.

Statistically, with each townie that dies the closer town gets towards narrowing down who the real mafia are.

Instead of worrying about "taking a shot in the dark" how about generating conversation, contributing discussion and investigating? You do that, and I guarantee your shot in the dark will have much better aim.


If anything, anyone aggressively calling for lynching particular person on the first day would seem suspicious. There's just insufficient data.

I would also argue that anyone aggressively calling for a no-lynch vote only serves to benefit the mafia.

[M] Trevor - Gay Dad
02-17-2017, 03:43 AM
I'm suspicious of Yukari, and Shinjaro the most. They are both for a No Lynch, and in all the past games I've played Mafia loves either a band wagon jump on for a easy kill, or a No Lynch situation. The No Lynch to me screams Mafia as it puts the townies in a feeling of safety yet puts them in the most danger as mafia gets a free shot on them with 0 threat on them. I don't know if it is a rookie mistake, or a vet move yet, but at the moment my vote is leaning towards Yukari at the moment. Just waiting to see more evidence on my thoughts though.

[M] Jeff - Single Dad
02-17-2017, 03:44 AM
Junpei;3654234']I'm suspicious of Yukari, and Shinjaro the most. They are both for a No Lynch

The hell you talking about? I'm not advocating No Lynch at all.

[M] Trevor - Gay Dad
02-17-2017, 03:46 AM
I misread a post sorry Shinjiro. My mistake there.

[M] Jeff - Single Dad
02-17-2017, 03:48 AM
*grumble* well I guess it's fine.

[M] Colette
02-17-2017, 04:37 AM
Usually I keep my responses brief because mobile devices and long posting doesn't seem to agree with me. Also, I honestly feel like there isn't enough data to compile on blind voting the first day.

So here's scenarios regarding how Day 2 starts depending if we lynch someone at random:

Day 1 Control %: Townies 72.7%, Mafia 27.3%

1) No Lynch:

Day 2 Results: 10 players remaining, 3 Mafia, 7 Townies.*

*The chances of Doctor saving a Townie from murder is about 1.1% (Mafia will choose 1/8 to kill; Doctor will choose 1/11)

Control %: Townies 70%, Mafia 30%

2) Lynching:

Chances lynching a Mafia on Day 1: 3/11

This leads to two possible results:

a) Lynch Townie: 9 players remain, 3 Mafia, 6 Townies -> Possibility: 72.7%
Control %: Townies 66.7%, Mafia 33.3%

b) Lynch Mafia: 9 players remain, 2 Mafia, 7 Townies -> Possibility: 27.3%
Control %: Townies 77.8%, Mafia 22.2%


Note: In a) Doctor has 1.4% chance of saving a Townie and in b) 1.2% chance of saving a Townie.

Note 2: This ignores the fact that the Role Blocker has about 14.3% chance of blocking the Doctor.


The math speaks for itself, by not lynching we do lose a bit of our power base but by lynching the Mafia has a higher chance of increasing theirs. Not lynching is cautionary and guarantees little deviance from the status quo. Lynching most likely results in the Mafia gaining more power. To lynch is high risk-high reward scenario for Townies. Regardless of what happens, lynching or not, the odds are in the Mafia's favour.

I prefer to be cautionary.

[M] Kurt - Cool Dad
02-17-2017, 05:47 AM
Arf!

[I agree with Yukari that choosing the no lynch carries its own benefits for town, with lynch being high-risk, high-reward for them. So I wouldn't so easily jump at someone who proposes no lynch on the first day since it can make our situation on day 2 a little better.]

Woof!

[However, I also agree with the notion that lynching is our only real weapon in this case. We may have little to go on, but if we don't even attempt to get rid of the mafia, we can easily give the mafia a huge advantage.]

Bork bork!

[##vote: Yukari]

Awoo!

[Nothing personal, Yukari, but balancing out all the potentially incriminating evidence people have pointed to (like Sanada-san's finger-pointing), I think there might be a slightly greater chance that it's someone voting for no lynch that is mafia, especially since you're explicitly pointing us to the benefits of that option. You may, of course, be doing this with town's best interest in mind, but quite frankly, there really is nothing better to tip us off on day one, and we stand to gain so much more by taking the risk.]

[M] Adama
02-17-2017, 06:08 AM
I'll keep my vote on Mr Sanada right now. Just to keep the discussion from losing focus.

As for a No Lynch, I initially was totally hostile to the idea and still prefer not to do that because it's a risk I feel is undesirable right now. It essentially all but guarantees the Mafia a Day 2 advantage and can potentially leave us with little information to go on. That being said, it's not necessarily indicative of Mafia.

[M] Trevor - Gay Dad
02-17-2017, 09:23 AM
##Vote: Yukari I am suspicious of a no lynch. Also you are right, numbers don't lie. The odds of hitting a mafia are 27% on day one, but 0% on a No Lynch. Not sure if it is a rookie mistake but my gut tells me no to fall for it. Sorry Yukari.

[M] Adama
02-17-2017, 09:32 AM
That's a pretty good point. Even if we do lose a townie. Unless it's a power role, we at least have data to go on rather than essentially forfeiting an opportunity to eliminate a Mafia.

[M] D'Anna
02-17-2017, 10:04 AM
So that puts three votes on Yukari: Shinjiro, Koromaru and Junpei.

Are all three of you prepared to face the consequences should she turn out to be town?

[M] Kurt - Cool Dad
02-17-2017, 10:23 AM
Woof!

[Well now, somebody's quick to throw around casually aggressive suggestions. You seem to be pretty confident that in the event she flips town, you'll be off the hook.]

[M] Trevor - Gay Dad
02-17-2017, 10:44 AM
Akihito I don't see how me waiting to vote until someone has said their peace, and me explaining it is overly deadly. I voted for someone who played a move a mafia would play in my opinion. I have explained why I voted that way, and now you are trying to demonize our vote to put heat on us for day 2. Your statement is very suspicious indeed.

[M] Adama
02-17-2017, 11:56 AM
Everyone is bad at Mafia except Akihiko, it seems. :p

[M] Mom – Host
02-17-2017, 12:05 PM
The moon is growing full.



| Day One |
Six Hours Remain


Yukari- 3 / 6 (Shinjiro, Koromaru, Junpei)
Akihiko - 1 / 6 (Theodore, Aigis)
No Lynch - 1 / 6 (Yukari)

(Aigis, Akihiko, Elizabeth, Ken, Minato, and Mitsuru are yet to vote)


At current state of play, Yukari will be lynched in just under six hours. This will be the final voluntary time-check from myself today: I'm sure you handle yourselves from here.

[M] Eizen
02-17-2017, 12:19 PM
It seems I must cast my vote now as I will be required to perform my regular maintenance until after the six hours are up.

##Vote: Yukari

While, as a machine, I must agree with the math, a 3.3% difference in control should we lynch a town member is simply not that functionally different whether we lynch or not given the relatively low number of people involved. Therefore, I find it strange that Yukari-chan would argue so strongly against the chance of taking out a member of Strega when the potential gain is significant and the risk, ultimately, all but irrelevant.

[M] Adama
02-17-2017, 12:39 PM
I shall hope I won't contribute to a majority lynch, but Miss Takeba does seem rather adamant about such a risky strategy.

##Unvote: [M] Akihiko

##Vote: [M] Yukari

If this were Day 3 or so this sort of criteria would likely prove minimally incriminating, but there's relatively little to go on. Mayhaps you can give me "fashion" advice should you survive. I've been told that is an important aspect of human society, despite Mr Iori's demonstrable lack of interest in it.

[M] Adama
02-17-2017, 12:41 PM
Also since we know the roles, perhaps upon our first two deaths we can rationalize whom possesses which roles based on their claims in the pending days. That strategy could prove quite fruitful as per a purely utilitarian perspective, more deaths could prove especially helpful in determining otherwise.

[M] Colette
02-17-2017, 01:22 PM
Aigis, It is a ~6% control difference if you lynch a Townie, which you are.

Since it looks like I will be Lynched, I would look at those who voted for me for your next Mafia. Especially since people are ignoring data. Day 1 Lynching is high risk move for Townies because of the general lack of data. It is a shot in the dark with a pretty decent fail rate and involves a 6% power lost vs a 3% on a no lynch.

Numbers don't lie. I was merely advocating caution the first round.

[M] Colette
02-17-2017, 01:34 PM
Also, a Mafia player probably wouldn't actually show you the math they did to get to their conclusion. Moreover, the math points to the fact that in lynching, during Day 1 only, Mafia has the most to gain.

So really, y'all need to check your logic processors.

[M] Colette
02-17-2017, 01:38 PM
Notice, still voting no lynch and not retaliating either despite no matter how I vote, it would be a moot point. #principles

[M] Kurt - Cool Dad
02-17-2017, 01:52 PM
Bark!

[The reason people are so edgy when someone votes not to lynch anyone is because it seems like the most obvious tactic mafia could take in order to avoid being lynched. And while your reasoning that we are safer when there's more of us is sound, in this particular format of the game there is really no other way we can narrow down who mafia is than by lynching someone. That way, on the next day, even if we do end up lynching a town - which is likely, as you mentioned - we're still one step closer to figuring out who the actual mafia is.]

[M] Colette
02-17-2017, 01:56 PM
Oh, btw the math just represents one person choosing at random. If 6 people choose at random, they have a 0.04% of all voting for a Mafia, but not the same one. And about 0.02% chance of voting for the same one. This all assumes random voting though.

Math isn't in anyone's favour when randomness is at play.

[M] Colette
02-17-2017, 02:03 PM
We are only one step closer because we are one day closer and more data has accumulated so we can make better decisions however by lynching we are likely to lose significant power. By Day 2 if 9 players remain, then it takes 5 for majority and it has a high chance of 3 of the active players being Mafia. Meaning, they could account for 60% of a lynch vote. So yeah, still doesn't make sense to lunch on Day 1. Still risky. If you no lynch then it would still take 6 as a majority (10 players remaining) and they could only control half the vote.

Plus with more players remaining, it gives us more time to process information. 10 players means a round more than 9.

[M] Colette
02-17-2017, 02:06 PM
Btw, let's make it clear that I am only talking about no lynch being a sound thing in Day 1 because we are essentially voting at random.

[M] Jeff - Single Dad
02-17-2017, 02:15 PM
Akihiko;3654263']So that puts three votes on Yukari: Shinjiro, Koromaru and Junpei.

Are all three of you prepared to face the consequences should she turn out to be town?

*If* she does, absolutely. I'm a human, and I'll be damned if I just let you decide I'm scum from that.

That being said.

##Unvote: Yukari

Getting a majority lockdown now is not in our best interest (even if there are only 4 hours remaining on the clock). I go to sleep and then when I get back up we have 5 votes on Yukari? This turn of events needs to be further examined.

[M] Colette
02-17-2017, 02:36 PM
So last piece of advice before I'm lynched. So here's the down low. Mafia have much more to gain from a Day 1 lynch of a Townie than a no lynch. Much more profitable and low risk to have an innocent lynch than to draw suspect by asking for a no lynch since that is apparently a "Mafia move". Logic then dictates that chances are whoever pushed hard to lynch me is a Mafia. There is the chance that only Townies voted for me (7 Townies not including myself) though that means you have done the work for the Mafia, so if that's the case congrats on that.

[M] Colette
02-17-2017, 02:39 PM
In other words, a good Mafia player wouldn't go for a No Lynch on Day 1. They'd want a Townie lynched. If we were further along in the game then a No Lynch would be good for them. As a Day 1 strategy? Nope. They're better off having a Townie lynched.

[M] Eizen
02-17-2017, 03:00 PM
Yukari;3654286']Aigis, It is a ~6% control difference if you lynch a Townie, which you are.

Since it looks like I will be Lynched, I would look at those who voted for me for your next Mafia. Especially since people are ignoring data. Day 1 Lynching is high risk move for Townies because of the general lack of data. It is a shot in the dark with a pretty decent fail rate and involves a 6% power lost vs a 3% on a no lynch.

Numbers don't lie. I was merely advocating caution the first round.

The difference in control should we lynch wrong person as compared to not lynching is 3.3%. This is per your own calculations.

The risk involved in us choosing incorrectly is minimal. And, frankly, there are few future situations that could occur later on in which it would be as safe to choose incorrectly as it is right now.

[M] Colette
02-17-2017, 03:05 PM
Aigis, you clearly ignore the fact that by lynching a Townie will result in Day 2, 9 players remain which means 5 votes is majority. In this case Mafia will have 3 of those 5 votes effectively controlling lynching. You have less than 30% chance of lynching Mafia on Day 1.

[M] Colette
02-17-2017, 03:06 PM
Funny how math works, no?

[M] Trevor - Gay Dad
02-17-2017, 03:09 PM
As it stands now the Mafia has the ability to pile on forcing a sudden death scenario that will have the same effect.

[M] Jeff - Single Dad
02-17-2017, 03:15 PM
Yukari;3654310']Aigis, you clearly ignore the fact that by lynching a Townie will result in Day 2, 9 players remain which means 5 votes is majority. In this case Mafia will have 3 of those 5 votes effectively controlling lynching. You have less than 30% chance of lynching Mafia on Day 1.

The Mafia won't be controlling lynching so long as the town realizes this and doesn't pile more votes on any single player than necessary, preventing a lockdown from happening. And hell, even if the Mafia push for a lockdown it reveals their identities on the spot, which would not guarantee them a win if they do it on the second day just yet, as there are still 3 Mafia vs 4 Townies on day 3 in the worst case scenario, which the town can absolutely still win if they know the Mafias' identities.

Though I certainly am not voting with the express intent of killing a Townie. And hey, look, the more you're talking and explaining your stance, the more I'm thinking of voting for someone else instead.

[M] Jeff - Single Dad
02-17-2017, 03:17 PM
Btw, calling out Mitsuru, Ken, Minato and Elizabeth. You guys have been way too quiet. Involve yourselves more! We don't even really know your stance on this matter yet.

[M] Adama
02-17-2017, 03:31 PM
Whilst your math is indeed seemingly accurate Miss Takeba, "the game is played on the field" or some similar expression is often used in such a scenario. The humanoids in play should not be so easily minimized as numbers when instinct and emotion are at play.

Your confident insistence that those whom campaign against you are likely mafia is also a rather bold statement, and can be used as a deterrent to prevent people from voting a certain way to avoid the expressed outcome. For someone who is so detailed in their logical analyses and use of mathematics, it seems rather novice and gut-driven to use the "well if you voted for me you're mafia" rhetoric when it feels very inconsistent with the rhetoric you used earlier. Desperation, perhaps?

[M] Adama
02-17-2017, 03:32 PM
Also we have but a few hours left, no? If you have a convincing explanation I'd be delighted to send my vote elsewhere if you manage to persuade me.

[M] Trevor - Gay Dad
02-17-2017, 03:38 PM
I myself would be willing to change my vote if you can convince me you are not Mafia. No Lynch is suspicious to me as well as people who don't contribute to the conversation but stay hidden as in not to give information out.

[M] Eizen
02-17-2017, 03:51 PM
Yukari;3654310']Aigis, you clearly ignore the fact that by lynching a Townie will result in Day 2, 9 players remain which means 5 votes is majority. In this case Mafia will have 3 of those 5 votes effectively controlling lynching. You have less than 30% chance of lynching Mafia on Day 1.

I agree with Shinjiro on this. Ultimately, this is not a game of random chance. To view it solely from the perspective of probabilities is folly as it's only a game of probabilities of we all select our votes at random. Being aware of the math is important, but to rely solely on it is not a logical decision.

[M] Colette
02-17-2017, 03:57 PM
I see Day 1 as more chance than any other day because lack of data and participation.

I also never said that anyone who voted for me is Mafia.i said there is a good chance at least one person is but also said none of them might be. It really depends on their behaviour afterwards.

[M] Adama
02-17-2017, 04:03 PM
Yukari] Since it looks like I will be Lynched, I would look at those who voted for me for your next Mafia.

I think the implication you meant is rather clear.

[M] Eizen
02-17-2017, 04:04 PM
Day 1 is almost certainly more chance than other days. But taking no action does not provide nearly the potential for useful information being discovered. And day 1 is mathematically a fairly safe time to risk voting incorrectly. The math says innocent people are likely to be lynched. Accepting that fact and using it to gain information from peoples reactions is only logical.

[M] Colette
02-17-2017, 04:12 PM
Theodore;3654329']
Yukari] Since it looks like I will be Lynched, I would look at those who voted for me for your next Mafia.

I think the implication you meant is rather clear.



I meant no implication merely stating logical possibilities. It isn't unreasonable to say at least one person who voted for me is Mafia. I'm also working under the assumption I'm getting lynched.

Aigis;3654330']Day 1 is almost certainly more chance than other days. But taking no action does not provide nearly the potential for useful information being discovered. And day 1 is mathematically a fairly safe time to risk voting incorrectly. The math says innocent people are likely to be lynched. Accepting that fact and using it to gain information from peoples reactions is only logical.

Depends on what you value. The data is merely that and what framework of value you put it into is something non-mathematical. I prefer caution over risk in a situation that I deemed high risk. From what I can see we lose either way but less with a no lynch. Possible data from behaviour is a bonus but only one no lynch vote won't end the day. So hardly a threat to end the day my little vote is. Especially given how vehemently everyone reacted.

[M] Jeff - Single Dad
02-17-2017, 05:10 PM
Okay, so with less than an hour left on the clock, I guess I'll try to get the ball rolling one last time.

##Vote: Theodore

I'm rather suspicious of both Aigis and Theodore for jumping on the bandwagon, and Theodore stands out to me a bit more than Aigis. He seems to be constantly trying to place himself in a highly defended position without actually contributing much to the discussion overall. And since I'm willing to give Yukari another chance (you rarely see a Mafia post that much in their own defense without anyone else backing them up) the people that still push for her execution but present themselves as peeeerfectly rational all the while rise to the top of my suspect list.

I strongly encourage everyone to re-evaluate who they believe to be the most suspicious people, given all the information we've gathered so far. Unfortunately, the quiet ones still haven't brought much to the table, but there's still plenty to sift through for now.

[M] Greg - Hot Dad
02-17-2017, 05:25 PM
Man, this game picks up in the hours I am asleep and at work. How unfortunate for me.

But moving on. Wow, how the heck did this happen? Is voting for no lynch really that much of a "YOU R MAFIA SCUM" tell? Really? I mean, I also said it could be a safe option, does that make me mafia? I guess in your eyes - yes, and I should be next to go! Sure, go with your gut feelings, but wow the bandwagon kicked off, eh?

Also to all of you who are demanding an explanation: What more exactly do you want Yukari to say? She has explained why she is voting the way she is. You don't like her explanation, I understand, but honestly, what more do you want? Your noble "I will change my vote if you can change my mind" is all very well and good, but at this stage, you know you're just saying that so you can come across better.

Defending someone is always a dangerous game, and I can't say for sure whether I am right to do so, but I can't help but feel you have all overreacted, and allowed yourself to become distracted and focused only on this one person.

I mean, there's Akihiko's casual threat to the people who voted Yukari. Why did you feel the need to do that? Pinning your colours to the mast is all we can do, and every now and again town are gonna vote for town. If she flips town, I have no doubts that some of the people voting are mafia. But why you gotta threaten?

Theodore went from saying "A No Lynch is not indicative of Mafia" to voting for Yukari, claiming she was being terribly adamant about her theory. Even though she didn't post in between these two posts at all? Why the change of heart?

I honestly don't believe at this stage that Yukari is mafia. But something about Theo's change of opinion, with no apparent pushing, has me rustled.

##Vote: Theodore

[M] Joe - Army Dad
02-17-2017, 05:34 PM
Sorry I've been inactive the past few hours, was sleeping and then have been at work. I'm able to squeeze on here for a little bit but I wont be able to go in depth before I have to get back to work.

I am not convinced Yukari is scummy. The logic so far was because they voted a no lynch vote. And even in the discussion thread people are bickering that topic. I don't think it's indicative of mafia on day one. The bandwagon almost lynch for them though, now THAT'S interesting. Everyone just jumped right into that one. The day almost ended early because of it.

[M] Mom – Host
02-17-2017, 06:00 PM
Day One has ended. The write-up, reveal, and Night One will commence shortly.

[M] Apollo
02-17-2017, 06:16 PM
Apologies for my absence. My Persona has responsibilities that require attending, thus affecting my attendance here.

I am 60/40 on Yukari being Mafia/Town. If she is Town, I would stake my reputation that Theodore is Mafia.

We shall see.

[M] Trevor - Gay Dad
02-17-2017, 06:18 PM
So have I miscounted or is it not sudden death with the vote tied?

[M] Mom – Host
02-17-2017, 06:19 PM
The Poem for Everyone's Souls
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZqZT9jXHLg)

Yukari - 4 / 6 (Shinjiro, Koromaru, Junpei, Aigis, Theodore)
Theodore - 2 / 6 (Shinjiro, Mitsuru)
No Lynch - 1 / 6 (Yukari)

(Akihiko, Elizabeth, Ken, and Minato did not vote)

"No, you've got to listen to me! I've worked out the probabilities and-" Yukari tried to protest her innocence. Complex mathematical theorems covered a whiteboard. I watched patiently as the others finally tired.

"Hah! We have no need of experts!" retorted someone in the crowd. Soon, they had instigated enough people to turn on Yukari.

"Only a member of Strega would use their brain!" shouted another. A few people held back, uncertain whether Yukari was really a traitor, but it was too late. Yukari's fate was sealed, her final words pleading for them to listen. The masses have spoken, and only I - a cosmic revenge spirit - could acquiesce to their request.



http://home.eyesonff.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=71690&d=1487356433http://home.eyesonff.com/user/avatar/avatar12551_54.gif


[M] Yukari was a Vanilla Townie played by The Summoner of Leviathan!




| Night One |

http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/784/229/491.gifTonight ends in twenty-four hours, or when all night actions have been submitted (unless it is stated they wish to have room to reconsider in the PM).

This thread will reopen at 18:30 GMT to begin Day Two.

[M] Mom – Host
02-17-2017, 06:20 PM
I'll see you again in twenty-four hours! Or maybe even sooner. Who knows.

[M] Mom – Host
02-18-2017, 01:01 AM
It was a tense night. Everyone departed alone through doors to other areas of the Velvet Room, upset after Yukari's death. I sat alone in the main chamber after covering the body. I wondered whether S.E.E.S would be able to identify the Strega members.

Who were the killers? Would everyone make it through the night?


No deaths occured overnight.


| Day Two |
Today ends immediately when a majority is reached on either a player or the 'no lynch' option. If no majority is reached, the day will time out 48 hours from now (01:00 GMT, 20th).

The lynch cap for today is six.

[M] Mom – Host
02-18-2017, 01:01 AM
Oh, and open. Keep forgetting to do that.

[M] Greg - Hot Dad
02-18-2017, 01:07 AM
Interesting, very interesting. Doc, you did good, whoever it was you protected. :up:

Anyway, my questions still stand from my previous post. Feel free to answer them whenever, team.

[M] Jeff - Single Dad
02-18-2017, 01:26 AM
Hmm, an eventful night, or the opposite? We'll see in time. For now, let's continue where we left off.

##Vote: Theodore

What do you think, everyone?

[M] D'Anna
02-18-2017, 04:24 AM
I picked an unfortunate time to be busy. Fortunately, our doctor seemed to pick the right target and now knows who they can trust.

Yesterday I asked if Shinjiro, Koromaru and Junpei were prepared to face the consequences of Yukari flipping town. I asked this question because I wanted to see their conviction and confidence behind their vote. Out of those three people, only Shinjiro firmly stood by his vote before later retracting. Junpei and Koromaru both attempted to deflect blame and suspicion back onto me, instead of standing by their decision.

Their are a few ways to interpret their responses. I initially respected the fact that Shinjiro stood behind his vote, but he then lost credibility when he backtracked on his vote. I think there's a realistic chance that he figured Yukari was going to get lynched anyways, and decided to redact his vote in order to earn some goodwill in the following day. If this is the case, he's likely mafia.

I think Theodore and Aigis bandwagoning together to vote out Yukari is a little suspect. However, from my experience it would be incredibly risky to do this on the first day phase. Doing that is a quick way to stand out and put a target on your back. The only people likely to do this are inexperienced or brazen mafia.

[M] Adama
02-18-2017, 04:28 AM
I am aware yesterday was a strategic miscalculation and I aware of how it makes me appear.

I stand by that my logic from last night was reasonable and I wasn't trying to bandwagon as much as I was trying to put pressure on Yukari, whom failed to convince me. Evidently it was the wrong choice so I'll answer any questions needed.

[M] Adama
02-18-2017, 04:43 AM
Akihiko, you are one strange fellow as you seem rather adamant that any action can be interpreted in specific way whilst not giving any reason as to how they could not apply. It's not particularly suspicious, but it certainly is bold and unconventional

[M] Adama
02-18-2017, 05:25 AM
Never mind, misread your post.

[M] Greg - Hot Dad
02-18-2017, 11:28 AM
Theodore;3654399']I stand by that my logic from last night was reasonable and I wasn't trying to bandwagon as much as I was trying to put pressure on Yukari, whom failed to convince me.

What do you mean put pressure on her? How much more pressure can you put on a person who has 4 votes, exactly? She was getting hammered from everyone posting. She was already over the half way mark. And despite all this, she wasn't exactly jumping to change her mind. So what was your plan here, other than to push her a hair away from majority lynch and keep the focus on one person's single vote? Also, you casually pushed for roleclaims. Why? That is an incredibly stupid move for town power roles.

So it's your turn, Theo. Convince me that you didn't just bandwagon on Yukari. I'll change my vote if you manage it.

##Vote: Theodore


Akihiko: I understand your reasoning in pushing these people. I don't see any sign of Shinjiro standing firmly by any decision to vote Yukari, though. He voted Aigis, then voted Yukari, and then unvoted Yukari, with no posts of any real substance in between. His posts with votes in them are his most substantial. So where are you getting all that conviction Shinjiro supposedly had?

[M] Greg - Hot Dad
02-18-2017, 11:41 AM
I have been trying to glean information from Day 1, but it's just people pointing and saying "NO LYNCH IS ONLY SOMETHING THAT MAFIA WOULD CALL FOR". Haha well, here we are. Thanks Junpei, for getting that ball rolling! ;)

[M] Adama
02-18-2017, 12:34 PM
I stated straight up we have little information to go on, and the argument I made was that if we do lynch someone we have more evidence to work on than if we simply went for a No Lynch. Considering the Doctor was targeted and presumably protected themselves, it's clear the Mafia might have an idea of who it may be unless they elected to forego a Nightkill

As for me bandwagoning, yeah it looks pretty apparent that's what I was doing, but I'd like to think even a bad Marian knows not to do that. If it makes me look suspicious, so be it. I'm willing to bite the bullet to help the town. In that case, there's a pretty good shot some scum can be found in those who led the charge as I was led astray. They'll rarely vote the same always, however.

Also, I never asked for a roleclaim. I predicted it but my argument was merely is that if we know the roles, we have more knowledge in our possession with every flip, good or bad.

[M] Adama
02-18-2017, 12:35 PM
I made a mistake and used bad judgment.

[M] D'Anna
02-18-2017, 01:55 PM
Mitsuru;3654412']His posts with votes in them are his most substantial. So where are you getting all that conviction Shinjiro supposedly had?


Shinjiro;3654296']*If* she does, absolutely. I'm a human, and I'll be damned if I just let you decide I'm scum from that.

Now that I see this bandwagon developing, I'm starting to think Theodore is innocent and the mafia were planning on throwing him under the bus today.

##Vote: Shinjiro

[M] Jeff - Single Dad
02-18-2017, 02:17 PM
Allow me to answer on my own behalf. My conviction was as such: if you believed I was a Mafia for making a call that turns out to be bad, I would not stand idly by while you think I'm a Mafia for just that. However, that doesn't mean I'll stick with the call if I already believe it to be bad before confirmation of it comes.

I went to bed when my own and Koromaru's votes were on Yukari. Imagine my surprise when I returned and found three extra votes piled onto her. Not just that, but Yukari was defending herself quite desperately with no one coming to her aid. That doesn't automatically mean she's a Human of course, but it does mean I'd rather investigate someone else who stood out to gather more information. And those three extra votes? They're goddamn bullshit, that's what. I instantly unvoted so we wouldn't have a majority lockdown (which would only stifle the exchange of information), and since there is little to no reason to pile FIVE VOTES' worth of pressure onto one person, I thought that maybe, just maybe, some of the bandwagon hoppers might have been Mafia.

I mean seriously, Theodore, what was the point of putting those votes on her. Was there *any* reason at all?

That's why I switched to Theodore ultimately, and my suspicion of him has hardly lifted. In hindsight it'd have been interesting to bait and see if anybody did dare to trigger the majority lockdown, but at the time I still hoped we could switch to someone else. Unfortunately, it seems nobody heeded my call to re-evaluate their suspicions.

Mind you, I'm also a tad bit suspicious of Mitsuru. Someone speaking on someone else's behalf either knows more about them than they should (i.e. Mafia) or is a pretty damn trusting town. And the fact that I know said trust is most certainly *not* misplaced by chance is what makes me suspect the former.

Anyways, if any of the people who are still being mostly quiet are watching our exchange, please don't hesitate to jump right in, interrupt, and bring something else to the table. We still know very little about you guys.

[M] Kurt - Cool Dad
02-18-2017, 02:37 PM
Arf!

[The thing is, I still think it's hard to judge who mafia is simply based on who did and didn't vote for Yukari considering, and this is my personal reasoning here, so I may be wrong, that we needed to lynch somebody in order to get discussions going.]

Ruff!

[So for that reason, I am still very suspicious of Akihiko. I don't buy the whole "I was just testing you guys". I realize I may come across as defensive, since he was accusing me among others, but the way he tried to shift the guilt on those who first voted for Yukari really did seem like he was trying to throw off all the suspicion his hostile attitude got focused on him.]

Bark bark!

[I'm still not casting my vote since we haven't heard from about half of the other people, and I think it's always s good idea to wait a bit. After all, our chance of lynching an actual mafia member has grown - much more than we expected since no one died tonight - so if we keep an open mind throughout the day, we might as well get lucky!]

[M] Eizen
02-18-2017, 02:45 PM
I am afraid I'm still not quite sure what to make of Akihiko-senpai. It seems as though any action or lack of action is suspicious to him. One would wonder whether he's actually mafia and throwing suspicions at everyone or simply indecisive. Time will tell I suppose.

I am disappointed by our error in judgement from day one. I have to agree that bandwagoning from here on is a bad idea, and will lament the loss of Yukari-chan. I was suspicious of her I'll admit, and much of it came down to her erroneous interpretation of the math involved, so as a machine I will stand by that decision. It is unfortunate that I have no "gut feeling" to go with. Perhaps that human characteristic would make this easier.

As it stands, I'm more interested in gaining information about those who may have stayed relatively quiet or went out of their way to not draw too much attention on day one. I feel we are gathering a good amount of data about everyone else thus far but do not want these people to simply slip by for too long. My tendency will always be to want as much information as I can get. So far, it seems to me that Minato and Ken have been the least active. Perhaps they are merely busy and we'll see their activity pick up on day two. But just the same I do not like having little to go on with them while most others either have been or are now being fairly active.

I can understand the natural suspicion of people who jumped on Yukari, though I can't discount the idea that perhaps only one or possibly even no mafia were really involved there and mostly just let a bad decision on our part play out as it readily deflects suspicion from them. There are many possibilities for me to consider. Hence I shall hold off on any votes at this early stage and seek out more information. I do not wish a repeat of last nights tragedy.

As an aside: to honour our fallen comrade I shall be referring to Junpei solely as Stupei from now on. I feel that's what she would have wanted.

[M] Eizen
02-18-2017, 02:50 PM
Koromaru;3654421'][So for that reason, I am still very suspicious of Akihiko. I don't buy the whole "I was just testing you guys". I realize I may come across as defensive, since he was accusing me among others, but the way he tried to shift the guilt on those who first voted for Yukari really did seem like he was trying to throw off all the suspicion his hostile attitude got focused on him.]

At this point I'm left wondering if there's anyone he hasn't thrown accusations at. It seems a very strange strategy and one that would be expected to cast suspicion on him. But then I'm left wondering if it's all a mafia bluff to deliberately appear too suspicious from a strategy that obviously is suspicious. Or if he's just seeking out information but drawing more attention than he intends. I confess I'm still not sure what to make of his efforts yet. Not with any certainty.

[M] D'Anna
02-18-2017, 03:16 PM
Shinjiro;3654420']Allow me to answer on my own behalf. My conviction was as such: if you believed I was a Mafia for making a call that turns out to be bad, I would not stand idly by while you think I'm a Mafia for just that. However, that doesn't mean I'll stick with the call if I already believe it to be bad before confirmation of it comes.

Except you didn't originally believe it to be a bad call. You said "I've gotten a little more suspicious of a certain other person" before voting Yukari. It wasn't until 4 hours later that you suddenly realized it was a "bad idea" and decided to change your vote when it was already inevitable that she was going to be lynched.

Had you stood by your initial suspicion and not changed your vote, I would be more willing to believe that you simply made a mistake despite believing you were correct.



Koromaru;3654421'][The thing is, I still think it's hard to judge who mafia is simply based on who did and didn't vote for Yukari considering, and this is my personal reasoning here, so I may be wrong, that we needed to lynch somebody in order to get discussions going.]

So just lynch someone for the sake of lynching someone? That's a pretty anti-town way of thinking.


[So for that reason, I am still very suspicious of Akihiko. I don't buy the whole "I was just testing you guys". I realize I may come across as defensive, since he was accusing me among others, but the way he tried to shift the guilt on those who first voted for Yukari really did seem like he was trying to throw off all the suspicion his hostile attitude got focused on him.]

I don't really care if you suspect me. I own my moves and mistakes. But instead of reaffirming your decision and standing by it, you instead tried to dismiss it and deflect suspicion back onto me. All I'm advocating for here is for you to own your move. Not doing so makes you untrustworthy and therefore come across as fairly scummy.


Aigis;3654422']I am disappointed by our error in judgement from day one. I have to agree that bandwagoning from here on is a bad idea, and will lament the loss of Yukari-chan. I was suspicious of her I'll admit, and much of it came down to her erroneous interpretation of the math involved, so as a machine I will stand by that decision. It is unfortunate that I have no "gut feeling" to go with. Perhaps that human characteristic would make this easier.

It's easier to say this in hindsight, but I thought it was fairly obvious Yukari was not mafia. She put in a considerable amount of effort towards justifying a no lynch vote, yet people used this extremely minor point against her. While I also agree that not lynching ultimately doesn't help town, she boldly chose to take the other side of the argument. She was heavily outnumbered, yet she did so willingly. Almost no mafia player would ever do that on the first day of the game.

Also if it wasn't already clear, at least one of the mafia members is an active player. The mafia submitted their actions early, which means that the mafia are actively participating in this game.

[M] Kurt - Cool Dad
02-18-2017, 03:21 PM
Bark!

[Considering anyone trustworthy in this game is a huge mistake anyway, so I'm fine if you think I'm untrustworthy.]

Arf!

[Regarding the activity comment - that may be true and we should consider that, HOWEVER, we should also consider that it's possible those less active during the day (Minato, Ken, and to a lesser extent Junpei) could still be watching the day phase closely but only acting a time Night. After all, all of our accounts are marked as hidden, so there's no way of knowing who is actually around. Mafia might be composed entirely of very active members, just inactive members, or any combination in between.]

[M] D'Anna
02-18-2017, 03:28 PM
Koromaru;3654425'][Considering anyone trustworthy in this game is a huge mistake anyway, so I'm fine if you think I'm untrustworthy.]

Well you do need to examine every player at least someone skeptically, but what lynches ultimately come down to is who you trust the least.


[Regarding the activity comment - that may be true and we should consider that, HOWEVER, we should also consider that it's possible those less active during the day (Minato, Ken, and to a lesser extent Junpei) could still be watching the day phase closely but only acting a time Night. After all, all of our accounts are marked as hidden, so there's no way of knowing who is actually around. Mafia might be composed entirely of very active members, just inactive members, or any combination in between.]

I think what you said is pretty fair. My main point is that while Minato and Ken are the least active players in the game by a considerable margin, the other players have all at least somewhat participated in this game. Since there are 3 mafia members, even if those two are both mafia, at least one other person is a more active player.

[M] Adama
02-18-2017, 03:32 PM
Koromaru, whom do you suspect?

[M] Trevor - Gay Dad
02-18-2017, 03:32 PM
Hey everyone I'm up. Was out for drinks last night and decided not to drink and play mafia.

Alihiko you yell you claim all your moves, yet demonize anyone who makes any other move. You were the one that wanted to lynch people on how they said hello if I'm not mistaken. That being said I don't think your mafia even though you have been very wishy washy. I think you are just playing aggressive.

[M] Kurt - Cool Dad
02-18-2017, 03:48 PM
Theodore;3654428']Koromaru, whom do you suspect?

Bjørk!

[As I've mentioned above, Akihiko is on my list, though I do acknowledge that this partly stems from the fact that's I am not a fan of his general approach of aggressively pointing fingers instead of a more balanced discourse. I'm still not convinced the intentions he claims he had for his day one discourse are what he says they are, but I'm not ready to vote for him just yet.]

Awoo!

[Other than that, it'd be much easier to ask me who isn't on my list. The quiet people can be trying not to reveal themselves, while the chatty ones might be using their reasoning as a smokescreen, so anything goes. Aside from Sanada-San, on top of my list is Minato, Shinjiro, and you.]

[M] D'Anna
02-18-2017, 03:56 PM
Theodore;3654428']Koromaru, whom do you suspect?

Pretty sure you have a question that someone wants an answer to.


Shinjiro;3654420']I mean seriously, Theodore, what was the point of putting those votes on her. Was there *any* reason at all?



Junpei;3654429']Alihiko you yell you claim all your moves, yet demonize anyone who makes any other move. You were the one that wanted to lynch people on how they said hello if I'm not mistaken. That being said I don't think your mafia even though you have been very wishy washy. I think you are just playing aggressive.

Yeah I'm not gonna lie, that one was definitely a bit of a reach. But I truly do believe that sometimes you have to go with your gut, and my gut was telling me that a few people made some bad first impressions.

[M] Adama
02-18-2017, 04:12 PM
Maybe I'm just gutless but I think youre putting way too much emphasis on hunches.

[M] Mom – Host
02-18-2017, 04:15 PM
First time and vote check of Day Two.


| Day Two |
Approximately thirty-three hours remain


Theodore - 2 / 6 (Shinjiro, Mitsuru)
Shinjiro- 1 / 6 (Akihiko)

(Aigis, Elizabeth, Junpei, Ken, Koromaru, Minato and Theodore are yet to vote)

Good luck, everyone!

[M] Eizen
02-18-2017, 04:17 PM
Akihiko;3654424']
Koromaru;3654421'][The thing is, I still think it's hard to judge who mafia is simply based on who did and didn't vote for Yukari considering, and this is my personal reasoning here, so I may be wrong, that we needed to lynch somebody in order to get discussions going.]

So just lynch someone for the sake of lynching someone? That's a pretty anti-town way of thinking.

Except he literally said it was to get discussion going which means it wasn't lynching just for the sake of lynching. And despite what Yukari thought, it was still an extremely safe time to choose at random as we, the people of the town, maintained roughly the same probabilistic position if we lynched the wrong person as if we didn't lynch and there was the potential large gain to be had of taking out a member of Strega immediately. Mathematically it was a sound decision. No action can be considered done for the sake of doing it as all actions reveal information and encourage the reveal of new information. Whether we get the information we want is another matter entirely.


Akihiko;3654427']I think what you said is pretty fair. My main point is that while Minato and Ken are the least active players in the game by a considerable margin, the other players have all at least somewhat participated in this game. Since there are 3 mafia members, even if those two are both mafia, at least one other person is a more active player.

This is also worth keeping in mind. It is highly probable at least one active person is Strega. Ultimately who was lynched on day one was going to be a decision based on very early, and highly incomplete, information. I think we can make a much more informed and well reasoned choice this time. As sad as it was to lose Yukari-chan, we do have a much greater abundance of data to sift through now, increasing the odds of the remaining SEES members survival.l

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-18-2017, 04:19 PM
Sorry I'm late, everyone, school yesterday was so tiring and I had a moutain of homework! It's not easy being a ten year old, you know.

Honestly, I'm feeling most suspicious of Theodore and Shinjiro. Their back and forth seems almost scripted. That could just be me though, I guess. As it stands, I'll probably vote for one of them. Depends if they can convince me that they're not mafia.

[M] Adama
02-18-2017, 04:24 PM
I wasn't aware that Shinjiro and I were arguing.

[M] Trevor - Gay Dad
02-18-2017, 04:28 PM
I have been reading the thread and am not sure who to suspect. The one person who comes to mind is Elizabeth. Where is she? Now I wonder if real life is just very busy for her, or if she is sitting reading and keeping a very low profile. Not sure which it is yet.

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-18-2017, 04:29 PM
Looking back over it, I think I was misreading things. I was mixing up what Akihiko said with what Shinjiro said. Sorry about that, Theo!

[M] D'Anna
02-18-2017, 04:30 PM
Theodore;3654434']Maybe I'm just gutless but I think youre putting way too much emphasis on hunches.

I should de-emphasize my hunch when it comes to you, right?


Aigis;3654436']Except he literally said it was to get discussion going which means it wasn't lynching just for the sake of lynching. And despite what Yukari thought, it was still an extremely safe time to choose at random as we, the people of the town, maintained roughly the same probabilistic position if we lynched the wrong person as if we didn't lynch and there was the potential large gain to be had of taking out a member of Strega immediately. Mathematically it was a sound decision. No action can be considered done for the sake of doing it as all actions reveal information and encourage the reveal of new information. Whether we get the information we want is another matter entirely.

This game is based on far more than just mathematical decisions. Regardless of the intent of the lynch, the fact remains that it was basically a random lynch. Sure it generated some discussion, but it also made absolutely no sense to lynch her specifically for the reasons people gave.

[M] Eizen
02-18-2017, 04:31 PM
I would like to encourage more interaction with Minato so for the time being:

##Vote: Minato

In no way is this a final vote of mine and it will likely change as I have little reason to vote for him aside from a general lack of communication at the moment. But I've found that the way humans act while under pressure can be more revealing than when they are feeling comfortable, so I hope this encourages a response from our friend with which to gather more data. It is necessary to fill in as many variables as possible for my predictive algorithms to function at optimal levels.

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-18-2017, 04:32 PM
I'm still suspicious of Shinjiro, though. It really seems like he was trying to provoke Theo.


Shinjiro;3654420']
I mean seriously, Theodore, what was the point of putting those votes on her. Was there *any* reason at all?

Why would you say something like that?

[M] Kurt - Cool Dad
02-18-2017, 04:34 PM
Akihiko;3654445']
Theodore;3654434']Maybe I'm just gutless but I think youre putting way too much emphasis on hunches.

I should de-emphasize my hunch when it comes to you, right?


Aigis;3654436']Except he literally said it was to get discussion going which means it wasn't lynching just for the sake of lynching. And despite what Yukari thought, it was still an extremely safe time to choose at random as we, the people of the town, maintained roughly the same probabilistic position if we lynched the wrong person as if we didn't lynch and there was the potential large gain to be had of taking out a member of Strega immediately. Mathematically it was a sound decision. No action can be considered done for the sake of doing it as all actions reveal information and encourage the reveal of new information. Whether we get the information we want is another matter entirely.

This game is based on far more than just mathematical decisions. Regardless of the intent of the lynch, the fact remains that it was basically a random lynch. Sure it generated some discussion, but it also made absolutely no sense to lynch her specifically for the reasons people gave.

Ruff!

[To be fair, the same could be said for anyone else who could've been lynched on that day - there is no concrete reason other than some people deciding that voting no lynch = mafia.]

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-18-2017, 04:35 PM
Aigis;3654446']I would like to encourage more interaction with Minato so for the time being:

##Vote: Minato



This whole "This isn't my actual final vote, honest!" thing makes no sense to me. Can you explain your thinking?

[M] Kurt - Cool Dad
02-18-2017, 04:37 PM
Ken;3654449']
Aigis;3654446']I would like to encourage more interaction with Minato so for the time being:

##Vote: Minato



This whole "This isn't my actual final vote, honest!" thing makes no sense to me. Can you explain your thinking?

Arf!

[She does clarify in her post - it's to put Minato, who has been pretty quiet, on edge.

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-18-2017, 04:38 PM
But couldn't you do that without voting?

[M] Eizen
02-18-2017, 04:39 PM
Akihiko;3654445']This game is based on far more than just mathematical decisions. Regardless of the intent of the lynch, the fact remains that it was basically a random lynch. Sure it generated some discussion, but it also made absolutely no sense to lynch her specifically for the reasons people gave.

The less information available, the more mathematics and probability must be relied upon. And we will never have less information than we did on day one. It's also worth mentioning that you keep stating everyone voted for her simply because of her choice not to lynch. While true for some, I have stated repeatedly that this was not my reasoning. Her voting no lynch was a bit suspicious but certainly no more so than any of the wild accusations you've thrown around based on nearly zero information. My problem with her choice stemmed from her flawed analysis of the probabilities and the inherent risk in any of the decisions. Her sticking to her analysis after I pointed out it's flaws simply made me even more suspicious, hence I did not change my vote in the few times I was able to check in between maintenance checks.

Obviously in hindsight her error was likely a human one, sticking to a flawed analysis in the face of stronger arguments. Humans are more prone to logical fallacies than anti-shadow weapons such as myself. But as I said, there was little concrete evidence to go on at the time. The fallout of that lynching has had the desired effect of generating a great deal more discussion and data however, so her death will not be in vain as it may very well save the rest of SEES.

[M] Kurt - Cool Dad
02-18-2017, 04:41 PM
*sniff sniff*

[I figure this is faster because if Minato comes in and only skims the thread, he'll still see the vote.]

[M] Jeff - Single Dad
02-18-2017, 04:43 PM
Akihiko;3654424']Except you didn't originally believe it to be a bad call. You said "I've gotten a little more suspicious of a certain other person" before voting Yukari. It wasn't until 4 hours later that you suddenly realized it was a "bad idea" and decided to change your vote when it was already inevitable that she was going to be lynched.

Had you stood by your initial suspicion and not changed your vote, I would be more willing to believe that you simply made a mistake despite believing you were correct.


It's easier to say this in hindsight, but I thought it was fairly obvious Yukari was not mafia. She put in a considerable amount of effort towards justifying a no lynch vote, yet people used this extremely minor point against her. While I also agree that not lynching ultimately doesn't help town, she boldly chose to take the other side of the argument. She was heavily outnumbered, yet she did so willingly. Almost no mafia player would ever do that on the first day of the game.

And I picked up on that eventually. I don't stick by my initial suspicion unconditionally if the situation changes. Plus, my putting a vote on Yukari was not made with the intention of getting her lynched. It was made with the intention of putting her on the spot and drawing more information out of her (for which purpose 2-3 votes are plenty which is why I was so surprised to see 5 freaking votes on her), and it's through that very information that I came to believe she was not a Mafia eventually. From my perspective, the people who were still stuck believing she was a Mafia by the end of the day are the suspicious ones, not the other way round.

Either way, if you still suspect me, that's fine. I just hope your suspicion of me won't blind you to seeing things from my point of view.

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-18-2017, 04:46 PM
Koromaru;3654453']*sniff sniff*

[I figure this is faster because if Minato comes in and only skims the thread, he'll still see the vote.]

I guess that makes sense. Sorry if I seem a bit slow, I'm only 10 after all. Guess I'm just suspicious of everyone, so I'm overanalysing things.

[M] Eizen
02-18-2017, 04:46 PM
Ken;3654451']But couldn't you do that without voting?

I believe the carrot and stick metaphor which humans frequently refer to is apt here. Simply asking people to speak and provide information will not always work. Frequently they need the motivation that comes from the promise of reward or the threat of punishment. Simply asking Minato-san to participate more is unlikely to be sufficient to make him feel much pressure to answer, and people under pressure also tend to make mistakes over time.

So while my vote is not yet final, which should be obvious as any of us can unvote at any time prior to days end and change our minds, this is a direct challenge to participate more so I can gain more information to begin theorizing about his allegiance. He could very likely convince me that he is not a member of Strega, or at least a less likely candidate than some others, or he may convince me that he is a prime suspect. We shall see.

But essentially, as I do not possess a proverbial carrot with which to tempt people, I must resort to the stick. Though I suppose one could say the proverbial carrot in this instance is unvoting. Perhaps this metaphor doesn't translate quite as directly as I would like after all.

[M] Trevor - Gay Dad
02-18-2017, 04:49 PM
I am wondering why people jumped on Theodore at the end of day one. It was just two jumped on votes with the intent to have more people jumping on? They really gave no real reason for it, then day two it was just business as usual for them and jumped on again with no real reason for it.

[M] D'Anna
02-18-2017, 04:49 PM
Quick question, Ken. How many townies are there?

[M] Jeff - Single Dad
02-18-2017, 04:49 PM
Whoa, all those new posts. Ken, putting votes on someone to pressurize them into defending themselves is a perfectly valid move. That's why I voted for Yukari, but I'm asking Theo about it because at the time of his vote Yukari already had four other votes on her; more pressure was hardly necessary at that point, and her demeanor was already pointing towards her being innocent.

[M] Eizen
02-18-2017, 04:51 PM
Ken;3654455']I guess that makes sense. Sorry if I seem a bit slow, I'm only 10 after all. Guess I'm just suspicious of everyone, so I'm overanalysing things.

It is only natural to overanalyze things Ken-kun. We have all been placed in a difficult position by our enemies and we must always be conscious of the fact that not everything which appears suspicious is, and our enemies can be trying to bluff us on multiple levels.

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-18-2017, 05:09 PM
Just to let you all know that I'm going to be unavailable for at least the next few hours. Bye, everybody!

[M] Joe - Army Dad
02-18-2017, 05:23 PM
Junpei;3654429']Hey everyone I'm up. Was out for drinks last night and decided not to drink and play mafia.

Alihiko you yell you claim all your moves, yet demonize anyone who makes any other move. You were the one that wanted to lynch people on how they said hello if I'm not mistaken. That being said I don't think your mafia even though you have been very wishy washy. I think you are just playing aggressive.

I'm still catching up with this thread but I saw this and aigis comment earlier.

I am inclined to agree with it here. I think akihiro is just super aggressive l and points fingers a lot. I'm not the biggest fan of this tactic but I don't believe he's mafia. That puts him in the spotlight too much. Unless like aigis said, maybe this is just a weird strategy.

Still catching up though. I'll give more thoughts as I read but I thought I'd share my thoughts here.

[M] Joe - Army Dad
02-18-2017, 05:24 PM
Aggressive and is* sorry phone typos I keep making!

[M] Apollo
02-18-2017, 06:05 PM
I initially stated that Yukari as Town would necessitate Theodore as Mafia. I still believe he is, but I'm far from 100%. I would like an answer as to why he voted Yukari. As has been stated, "to put pressure on her" is not sufficient, as she already had a great many votes. This is my reason for suspecting Theodore above all else right now.

No deaths in the night. Personally, I think Shinjiro was targeted by both Mafia and Doctor. If this is correct, it means for certain that we have a clever Doctor. Good work! I'm not sure what the Compulsive aspect means, though... :/

However - working from my hefty assumption - that doesn't illuminate anything about the Mafia. If Theo is Mafia and Mafia is dumb, they would target Shinjiro for bringing suspicion onto Theodore. But if Theodore is Town and Mafia are clever, they would also target Shinjiro, knowing they are reasonably likely to get a free Town Lynch again. This is the reason for my doubt about Theodore being Mafia. I believe we have a very crafty Mafia here, and I'm not certain they would throw one of their under the bus at this stage.

This all presupposes that Shinjiro is Town, however, which is not 100%, either. My doubt about this is due to the fact that Shinjiro has been very successful at leading votes. I will always find that posts that attempt to manipulate, persuade and coerce people into a certain line of thinking are suspicious, but ultimately I've not seen anything really like that from him. It's still something of a red flag for me, however.

I apologize that I can't be the most active of players. I have numerous commitments that limit my time here. I hope this is answer enough for you all. I do read through every post fully, though. ;)

[M] Joe - Army Dad
02-18-2017, 06:08 PM
Okay i'm at a computer now. And ugh even my correction made no sense. I promise I can properly put sentences together normally. Stupid phone.

I didn't throw a vote on at the end of the day yesterday because no one had convinced me that they were scummy. The bandwagon was very concerning and I don't like how quickly that progressed. I was able to check it briefly and saw just a few votes and when I came back it was an avalanche! I don't know if this was a mafia tactic or just town being misled. Either way, I was not a fan.

The reasoning used for those votes were pretty thin, in my opinion. Which of course has me raising an eyebrow at everyone who pushed for it.

Shinjiro, I'm not sure about because they did take their vote off of Yukari when the bandwagon started gathering steam. So I think they were just generating discussion and next thing they knew, bam bam two more votes. It is strange how Theo and Aigis just chain voted right after the vote count. I don't know if this was planned? That put Yukari at 5/6 at that time. There are supposed to be 3 mafia right? So maybe a third was supposed to end the day or maybe they thought if they push it someone else may come in and seal the deal? Shinjiro seemed to notice that pattern and quickly took their vote off to bump it back down to 4/6. I don't know if that's what happened, they they were mafia working to create a situation or not but I wouldn't ignore it either.

Minato is suspiciously missing a lot too. I mean I know I haven't been as active but most everyone I think has checked in today at least. So aigis' vote for minato to try to pull them out isn't that alarming to me.

I've got a few more social obligations for the day though so I'll have to be back later with more. Hopefully by then Minato checks in.

[M] Joe - Army Dad
02-18-2017, 06:09 PM
OH WAIT ha, as i was typing this, there's minato, scratch that last bit.

[M] Apollo
02-18-2017, 06:14 PM
Hiiiiii~ xD

[M] Eizen
02-18-2017, 06:43 PM
Elizabeth;3654474']Shinjiro seemed to notice that pattern and quickly took their vote off to bump it back down to 4/6. I don't know if that's what happened, they they were mafia working to create a situation or not but I wouldn't ignore it either.

It may be extremely paranoid to suggest this, but in a scenario where Strega are extremely intelligent and good at predicting human behaviour we cannot discount the possibility that if Shinjiro is Strega that it was a double blind. Though most humans are not prone to thinking more than one or two moves ahead so attempting to peel back layers of intent and obfuscation beyond that are often more self-defeating than productive as extreme doubt is debilitating.


I've got a few more social obligations for the day though so I'll have to be back later with more.

This seems a reasonable statement. Your sister did always tend to be more committed to her work than you are. I wonder if your many dates with Minato are cause for concern.

Was that funny? Did I successfully tell a joke?

[M] Apollo
02-18-2017, 10:20 PM
Minato;3654473']I will always find that posts that attempt to manipulate, persuade and coerce people into a certain line of thinking are suspicious, but ultimately I've not seen anything really like that from him. It's still something of a red flag for me, however.


Aigis;3654482']It may be extremely paranoid to suggest this, but in a scenario where Strega are extremely intelligent and good at predicting human behaviour we cannot discount the possibility that if Shinjiro is Strega that it was a double blind. Though most humans are not prone to thinking more than one or two moves ahead so attempting to peel back layers of intent and obfuscation beyond that are often more self-defeating than productive as extreme doubt is debilitating.

This is a textbook example of planting doubt. Your purpose is to make people feel that Shinjiro is suspicious, but you use vague and ambiguous language to ensure a clean get-out when he comes up Town. This is not the first time you have done this, and it is unsurprising that - for the third time now - you are aligned with Theodore.

Theo is arguably the more obvious Mafia, but you are certainly the most dangerous. I suspect you are the Roleblocker, though that is mere guesswork.

##vote: Aigis

[M] Apollo
02-18-2017, 10:24 PM
I'm going to bed now. I would appreciate the chance to wake up and explain any questions you might have in the morning.

If I am lynched in the night, know that you will not lose anything of value other than a man on your side.

[M] Eizen
02-18-2017, 10:46 PM
Minato;3654514']This is a textbook example of planting doubt. Your purpose is to make people feel that Shinjiro is suspicious, but you use vague and ambiguous language to ensure a clean get-out when he comes up Town.

I'm actually not convinced that Shinjiro is suspicious, merely pointing out a fact that people must keep in mind at all times while also describing a thought that runs through my head when considering the possible guilt or innocence of anyone here. As far as I'm concerned, nearly everyone here is still highly suspicious with perhaps Akihiko-senpai being the most suspicious to me overall.


This is not the first time you have done this, and it is unsurprising that - for the third time now - you are aligned with Theodore.

Considering the only time my decisions were in agreement with Theodore at all was in my lynch vote I'm not sure where you get three from. And I've explained my reasons for being suspicious of Yukari-chan. Reasons quite different from Theodores ultimately (though based on the same information). I am left to wonder where the other two instances of this imaginary alliance you accuse me of come from?


I suspect you are the Roleblocker, though that is mere guesswork.

I'm curious on what basis you're coming to that conclusion. Surely it's not just a random stab in the dark on your part.

For the moment, I'm going to leave my vote as is. Your sudden and unfounded belief of an alliance between myself and Theodore despite not feeling the same as him about Shinjiro and being upfront with my suspicions of everyone is more than a little strange. Any doubts I express about who people are are me literally vocalizing my own personal doubts. Your sudden certainty of my guilt seems very strange to me and is, frankly, quite far off base.

[M] Eizen
02-18-2017, 10:48 PM
Minato;3654515']I'm going to bed now. I would appreciate the chance to wake up and explain any questions you might have in the morning.

If I am lynched in the night, know that you will not lose anything of value other than a man on your side.

We still have, by my count, more than 24 hours left in which to decide on our votes. Are you saying you will not be back until after that time has elapsed? It seems a fairly significant stretch of time in which to be absent, and only makes me more suspicious of you leveling such a decisive accusation only to disappear rather than have to answer to challenges of it.

[M] Trevor - Gay Dad
02-18-2017, 11:07 PM
My biggest suspicion is Minato. You seem to have a lot of information not given out by anyone at this point. You even have gone as far as saying who is the roleblocker. It leaves me to believe that you are mafia. Not sure though as you may be town with a role and know something we don't.

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-18-2017, 11:17 PM
I'm back everyone, for a little while anyway. That homework doesn't write itself, after all!


Aigis;3654516']
For the moment, I'm going to leave my vote as is.

You see, this is why I find the whole "This isn't a REAL vote, I'm just trying to draw you out, lol" thing dodgy. It's looking more and more like you always meant to lynch Minato, but voted for him in a way that you thought didn't look suspicious. Voting Minato isn't necessarily suspicious in itself, but doing it in a way that tries to hide the fact that you were at least strongly considering getting him lynched DOES seem suspicious to me.

[M] Apollo
02-18-2017, 11:21 PM
All of the information I have has merely come from surveying the posts and finding patterns. It's just logical deduction; not infallible, but certainly our best hope. Remember that, when forming conclusions, you must take into account all the evidence. Every new post must be read only after every other post has been reviewed, time and time again. I worked from the assumption that everyone was Mafia, but ultimately could only narrow it down to two most likely contenders, due to the fact that everyone else lacks any clear direction.

I actually had a think in the shower, and retract my suspicion of roleblocker. That is most likely in the hands of the third - and quieter - Mafia. I believe Aigis is a Goon. If she is, then Theodore is also. I have reasoned this due to the fact that all of their posts are aligned; there is no distinct leader, but both following each others' lead, with the third tailing on behind, so as to avoid obvious grouping. Everyone else has, for the most part, flitted about.

I will say that this isn't the first time a Townie has provided concise reasoning for their decision and been suspected. ;)

My mistake on the length of days.

[M] Eizen
02-18-2017, 11:31 PM
I actually wasn't planning to vote for Minato-san before. I expected it may get him talking but not really produce much discussion of value. I still may not vote for him as there are a few people I'm considering as well and was considering more strongly before, but the sudden and swift accusation of me based on things that didn't actually happen was unexpected to say the least. I know a couple of people expressed some mild suspicion of me before because of my Yukari vote and I can't help but wonder if this is some attempt to link me to the suspicion that has been directed at Theodore, or perhaps redirect that suspicion from him to me. But then, I have the benefit of knowing I'm a member of SEES on which to base my analysis. You have only my word and I don't blame anyone for finding this fishy.

Though to be honest, if I were to simply unvote him now I'm sure some would feel I was just trying to weasel my way out of the spot light, or find some other reason to find that suspicious that I haven't thought of. With regard to my vote for him, I'm presently in a no win situation whether I change it or leave it so I may as well leave it particularly, again, since his accusations seem to largely come out of nowhere. I want to hear his explanations before I think about changing said vote. I could chalk his suspicion of an alliance with Theodore up to a simple mistake (he does see agreements which I don't recall ever expressing), but jumping to me being the roleblocker comes out of nowhere. I can see no evidence that would justify a person suspecting the role of anyone outside simply SEES and Strega alliance just yet so I would like an explanation.

[M] Apollo
02-18-2017, 11:32 PM
To be fair, Ken, voting for a passive member is a completely fine tactic, and not one that I find particularly suspicious.

[M] D'Anna
02-18-2017, 11:34 PM
Minato;3654514']Theo is arguably the more obvious Mafia, but you are certainly the most dangerous. I suspect you are the Roleblocker, though that is mere guesswork.

What an odd thing to suggest. I genuinely can't tell if you're hinting or not.


Ken;3654527']I'm back everyone, for a little while anyway. That homework doesn't write itself, after all!

Are you going to answer my question?

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-18-2017, 11:37 PM
Akihiko;3654535']Are you going to answer my question?

What question was that again, Aki?

[M] Eizen
02-18-2017, 11:38 PM
Again, I'm not seeing how my posts precisely align with Theodores. Aside from the vote we've done nothing but express some suspicions of a few people. Suspicions multiple people have shared and waffled on as well no less.

And the roleblocker accusation is still remarkably strange. Probably one of the strangest things I've seen anyone say here. I'd still like to know why you were lead to believe that at all? I'm sure most of us would agree, even after re-reading this thread many times, that there simply isn't enough information to go on for that. Unless you do have some information none of us have?

[M] Eizen
02-18-2017, 11:38 PM
He asked you how many townies there are. Which seems an extremely odd question to me as we can all, presumably, count.

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-18-2017, 11:40 PM
Igor;3653986']


Roles in Use

The following roles are in use:



2 Mafia Goons
1 Mafia Roleblocker
5 Vanilla Townies
1 Town Cop
1 Compulsive Doctor
1 Town Tracker


Igor did say, right at the beginning. That IS a pretty weird question to ask.

[M] D'Anna
02-18-2017, 11:42 PM
Aigis;3654538']He asked you how many townies there are. Which seems an extremely odd question to me as we can all, presumably, count.

I asked Ken, not you. Stay out of this.


Ken;3654539']Igor did say, right at the beginning. That IS a pretty weird question to ask.

So what is the number? And what's so weird about it?

[M] Apollo
02-18-2017, 11:43 PM
Aigis;3654537']Again, I'm not seeing how my posts precisely align with Theodores. Aside from the vote we've done nothing but express some suspicions of a few people. Suspicions multiple people have shared and waffled on as well no less.

And the roleblocker accusation is still remarkably strange. Probably one of the strangest things I've seen anyone say here. I'd still like to know why you were lead to believe that at all? I'm sure most of us would agree, even after re-reading this thread many times, that there simply isn't enough information to go on for that. Unless you do have some information none of us have?

Townie opinions would align with yours briefly, then go off. Yourself and Theodore are the only two people to consistently have been saying the same things. Everyone else has been inconsistent.

All of what I have said is deduction. The roleblocker was an assumption, which I hoped would stir you up a little.

For the record, I believe that assumption is false. I think that if someone were to look back over all the posts and find a third member who more consistently aligns with yourselves than anyone else, they would find the roleblocker.

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-18-2017, 11:45 PM
Well, Yukari was a vanilla townie. So eight, obviously? This is a really easy maths question, even for a 10 year old.

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-18-2017, 11:46 PM
Wait, seven. I'm an idiot.

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-18-2017, 11:46 PM
It was eight to start with, minus one which leaves seven.

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-18-2017, 11:47 PM
This is why I'm scoring so low in my maths homework at the moment. All this time I'm spending with SEES outside of school is really having a negative impact on my learning.

[M] Apollo
02-18-2017, 11:48 PM
In addition, the reason I believe my assumption is false is due to the fact that I remembered the split of Mafia. It would be exceptionally risky to have your power player being as talkative as the two of you. Could be bluff, but I don't think so. The reason I don't think it's a bluff is because of Mafia night behaviour: they voted for the most obvious person, hence why the doctor was able to save them.

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-18-2017, 11:49 PM
Okay, so apart from proving that I'm bad at math, what was the point of that? You're really starting to seem quite shady, Aki.

[M] Eizen
02-18-2017, 11:51 PM
Akihiko;3654540']I asked Ken, not you. Stay out of this.

I repeated your question to him since I was posting.

And telling me to stay out of this seems needlessly aggressive since I am free to question you on anything I please, and I didn't even just tell him the answer.


So what is the number? And what's so weird about it?

What's strange is I'm not sure, and I'm probably not alone in this, what information you think you would gain from determining whether or not Ken-kun can count to numbers as high as 8 and then subtract the one SEES member that was lynched.


Minato;3654546']The reason I don't think it's a bluff is because of Mafia night behaviour: they voted for the most obvious person, hence why the doctor was able to save them.

Now I'm curious who you thought was the obvious choice for them to night kill? I'm not sure we have enough information to guess anything less than a handful of people. But you're saying you know something about what they did at night?

[M] Apollo
02-19-2017, 12:01 AM
I have never said I've known anything. I've only ever said I have made deductions.

I believe the obvious choice was Shinjiro, possibly Mitsuru. Please note that this depends solely on the deduction that Theodore is Mafia being correct. On the proviso that it is, everything else falls into place. This does not happen from any other starting point. While I cannot guarantee the accuracy of my logic, I'm certainly confident enough in it to risk my life on it. I simply do not believe in coincidence.

[M] D'Anna
02-19-2017, 12:13 AM
Aigis;3654549']I repeated your question to him since I was posting.

And telling me to stay out of this seems needlessly aggressive since I am free to question you on anything I please, and I didn't even just tell him the answer.

Apologies for the tone, but the question and conversation was directed at him alone.


Ken;3654547']Okay, so apart from proving that I'm bad at math, what was the point of that? You're really starting to seem quite shady, Aki.

You didn't include yourself. The correct answer was "6, including myself makes 7."

##Unvote
##Vote: Ken

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-19-2017, 12:26 AM
Wow, I leave for quarter of an hour and things get weird. Your reasoning makes no real sense. Because I didn't phrase it the way you would phrase it, I must be mafia? You're acting so strange that you're either a mafia trying to sow confusion, or just a really weird player. You're definitely the most suspicious person right now. There's a slim chance I might change my mind if another obvious candidate pops up, but right now:
##Vote: Akihiko

[M] Eizen
02-19-2017, 12:30 AM
I seem to have lost an entire post I'd made responding to Minato-san. I believe you humans would say such is life?

To sum up my thoughts again quickly, your wording had made it seem heavily implied that you did have knowledge you weren't sharing and weren't simply deducing everything. One should take a bit more care with their words perhaps.

As for your explanations you do seem less convinced than you had originally seemed. Perhaps it's a bluff, perhaps not. But you've given me some things to think about. Particularly with regard to Theodore. The more I look back at the thread from your perspective the more I do see where you're coming from that we agreed a fair amount, but it seems as though it was largely him following my lead if it was intentional on his part which does make me somewhat concerned that this was his intent as a subtle way to cast suspicion on me as the leader in some form of alliance. There's also the possibility that it is coincidence and you're trying to take advantage of it to cast aspersions that seem to have a ring of truth. Unlike you, I do believe in coincidence since they happen all the time. I do not trust them however. Perhaps some time to think about it leading into tomorrow will help generate new understanding for me.


Akihiko;3654554']
Ken;3654547']Okay, so apart from proving that I'm bad at math, what was the point of that? You're really starting to seem quite shady, Aki.

You didn't include yourself. The correct answer was "6, including myself makes 7."

The literal answer to your question as it was worded is 7. This is such utterly silly logic on your part that I'm not sure whether to think you're just a SEES member who isn't very good at deriving information from the questions he asks, or if you're somehow the most clever Strega member of all trying to appear completely and utterly ridiculous.

I'm half tempted to change my vote to you either way though because your not really helping anyone discern anything useful.

[M] D'Anna
02-19-2017, 12:31 AM
Ken;3654555']Wow, I leave for quarter of an hour and things get weird. Your reasoning makes no real sense. Because I didn't phrase it the way you would phrase it, I must be mafia? You're acting so strange that you're either a mafia trying to sow confusion, or just a really weird player. You're definitely the most suspicious person right now. There's a slim chance I might change my mind if another obvious candidate pops up, but right now:
##Vote: Akihiko

It's not about the way I would phrase it. It's about the way a townie would phrase it. Although at this point I'm beginning to think you were just being kind of oblivious.

Your vote against me doesn't seem to have any real basis, rather it's just coming off as a retaliation vote.

[M] D'Anna
02-19-2017, 12:49 AM
Aigis;3654556']The literal answer to your question as it was worded is 7. This is such utterly silly logic on your part that I'm not sure whether to think you're just a SEES member who isn't very good at deriving information from the questions he asks, or if you're somehow the most clever Strega member of all trying to appear completely and utterly ridiculous.

Well, what I was looking for was for him to say "including myself." Just trying to get a read on him.

I'm satisfied with his response though. For now I'll redact my vote. Planning on doing a write-up on most (if not all) players sometime tonight.

##Unvote

[M] Apollo
02-19-2017, 12:51 AM
Aigis;3654556']I seem to have lost an entire post I'd made responding to Minato-san. I believe you humans would say such is life?

To sum up my thoughts again quickly, your wording had made it seem heavily implied that you did have knowledge you weren't sharing and weren't simply deducing everything. One should take a bit more care with their words perhaps.

As for your explanations you do seem less convinced than you had originally seemed. Perhaps it's a bluff, perhaps not. But you've given me some things to think about. Particularly with regard to Theodore. The more I look back at the thread from your perspective the more I do see where you're coming from that we agreed a fair amount, but it seems as though it was largely him following my lead if it was intentional on his part which does make me somewhat concerned that this was his intent as a subtle way to cast suspicion on me as the leader in some form of alliance. There's also the possibility that it is coincidence and you're trying to take advantage of it to cast aspersions that seem to have a ring of truth. Unlike you, I do believe in coincidence since they happen all the time. I do not trust them however. Perhaps some time to think about it leading into tomorrow will help generate new understanding for me.

I respect that you disagree with my deductions. Note that this post only strengthens them.

I posited that the majority of your posts coincided, leading to my suspicion. Instead of providing evidence in return to counter me, you drew attention to my guesswork and assumptions, as they are the things you can most easily latch suspicion onto. I feel that you have failed in successfully drawing suspicion towards myself due to the fact that I had already made it clear that the aspects you targeted were nothing more than guesswork, and so you have utilized the key benefit of vaguely worded statements: the ease of escape.

To that end, Akihiko is an easy target, as his actions have always been outlandish, but are now seemingly inane. I personally still do not find him particularly suspicious.

You will need to provide evidence counter to the fact that your posts more consistently align than with any other person's, and your present argument of "He seems to be following me" is demonstrably false.

I would not be at all surprised to find that Theodore's next posts are directly counter to your own now that I have drawn attention to your actions.

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-19-2017, 01:02 AM
Akihiko;3654557']Your vote against me doesn't seem to have any real basis, rather it's just coming off as a retaliation vote.

To be honest, it was a bit of a retaliation. Your reasoning about lynching me over the semantics of a maths question just seemed so flimsy to me that it got my hackles up. But being annoyed at you isn't a good enough reason to lynch you. You also changed your mind, which doesn't seem to me like something a mafia would do: one of the main mafia strategies is creating or nurturing a wave of suspicion and then riding it. So, I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt.

##Unvote: Akihiko

[M] Mom – Host
02-19-2017, 01:09 AM
| Day Two |
Twenty-four hours remain



Theodore - 2 / 6 (Shinjiro, Mitsuru)
Minato - 1 / 6 (Aigis)
Aigis - 1 / 6 (Minato)

Shinjiro- 0 / 6 (Akihiko)
Ken - 0 / 6 (Akihiko)
Akihiko - 0 / 6 (Ken)

(Akihiko, Elizabeth, Junpei, Ken, Koromaru and Theodore are yet to vote)

I had a request for a vote check half an hour ago, but as it was nearly the half-way point I decided to do it here.

Anyway: a very electrifying first half. Good luck everyone!

[M] Eizen
02-19-2017, 01:21 AM
Considering the one time I made a similar post following Theodores was my initial vote for Akihiko on the first page when we knew nothing, and the rest of the time his statements did seem to follow mine I'm not sure what makes you think that my suggestion that he's following me is demonstrably false. Not that it matters. As I said, it's merely one thing for me to consider in response to your expressed reasoning. A slim possibility to be sure since it's a strategy so subtle I think most wouldn't even notice it, but still a possibility so one I must consider.

As to providing evidence, you know this is all but impossible of course. You cast an accusation based on something you know I can't refute since the general consensus is there in writing, and any disagreement or agreement now would simply convince you you're right,despite your entire idea being nothing but a guess anyway. I must say that if your intention is to cast doubt on me that I can't shake in a single day then you've done a masterful job of reading an awful lot into what is largely nothing at this point. A single day does not a pattern make after all.

So let's not pretend that you can actually be convinced otherwise at this point since we both know that's not true. But the level of certainty you've displayed the entire time is far above what I'd expect from any SEES member on the second day. I stick to my belief that at the very least you think you know more than your letting on, and at worst you're a fairly aggressive mafia member who looked awfully hard for a reason to justify a lynching.

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 05:40 AM
Hmmmm I will look over what has transpired and add my input, if applicable.

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 06:32 AM
All right after looking over the thread right now the person who I find most suspicious is Akihiko. Initially I merely thought he was brazen, but his persona seems kinda forced. No matter how inexperienced one may be using things like word choice as a basis for suspicion as well as being needlessly aggressive sets off my radar.

Not to mention, he's willing to set up an entire "gotcha" vote rather confidently as if he's about to make a big play but then ultimately decides to back out of it at any disagreement.

I'm also finding his interactions with others to be rather forced (Ken, Aigis) and/or set up but I wanna see him defend himself first.

##Vote: Akihiko

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 07:52 AM
The "gotcha" being in relation to Ken.

[M] Greg - Hot Dad
02-19-2017, 11:49 AM
I have missed a lot! Whoops. I accidentally my entire Saturday away.

Been some good discussions over the last few hours! Lots to think about. Some things I agree with, some things that made me laugh out loud. The usual mafia stuff.


Theodore;3654415']Also, I never asked for a roleclaim. I predicted it but my argument was merely is that if we know the roles, we have more knowledge in our possession with every flip, good or bad.

We do know the roles in play though. They're in the first post and have been this entire time. So, why even bring it up?


Shinjiro;3654420']Mind you, I'm also a tad bit suspicious of Mitsuru. Someone speaking on someone else's behalf either knows more about them than they should (i.e. Mafia) or is a pretty damn trusting town. And the fact that I know said trust is most certainly *not* misplaced by chance is what makes me suspect the former.

I am not 100% sure what you're referring to here in terms of my own behaviours, but if I don't understand something, or something is not quite right in my own reading, I will ask a question about it, regardless of who it relates to. Only being able to talk about things that relate to yourself would leave this game mighty dull.


Koromaru;3654421'][The thing is, I still think it's hard to judge who mafia is simply based on who did and didn't vote for Yukari considering, and this is my personal reasoning here, so I may be wrong, that we needed to lynch somebody in order to get discussions going.]

Luckily nobody is basing opinions solely on who did and didn't vote Yukari. It's a jumping off point, for sure, but not the be all and end all. Also discussions happen without a lynch, what a strange thing to say. Better kill someone so we can talk more? What?


Ken;3654447']I'm still suspicious of Shinjiro, though. It really seems like he was trying to provoke Theo.


Shinjiro;3654420']
I mean seriously, Theodore, what was the point of putting those votes on her. Was there *any* reason at all?

Why would you say something like that?

Why not? Gotta put some pressure on him. I mean, he's evading this question like the plague. I asked him, Shinjiro asked him, Akihiko restated the question, you highlighted it again, and Minato has pointed out that his explanations have been insufficient. Yet there continues to be no answer. Any time now, buddy. <3


Junpei;3654457']I am wondering why people jumped on Theodore at the end of day one. It was just two jumped on votes with the intent to have more people jumping on? They really gave no real reason for it, then day two it was just business as usual for them and jumped on again with no real reason for it.

Perhaps you should read the posts again. There have been reasons given. You may disagree, and you can challenge the reasoning given, but don't try and say that there is no reason for it. Trying to save your mafia bro by sowing seeds of doubt about his accusations?


Akihiko;3654554']
Ken;3654547']Okay, so apart from proving that I'm bad at math, what was the point of that? You're really starting to seem quite shady, Aki.

You didn't include yourself. The correct answer was "6, including myself makes 7."

##Unvote
##Vote: Ken

ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaa

brilliant

What the heck are you even doing, Akihiko? This is great. I honestly have nothing more to say about Akihiko's "strategies", I just needed this to be in as many posts as possible so we will never forget about this.
But, now that I am typing this, I realise that his continuous nonsense is causing him to slip under my radar despite being the loudest person in the room. Gotta stay vigilant! I am looking forward to his analysis, he has some good insights when he's not going off the deep end. I have my popcorn at the ready though, just in case.

Re: Aigis & Theodore - I also noted the strange trend of the two of you being on the same side of the argument consistently. Even with my but cursory glances over the course of the day when I was able to check this place out, it stood out to me something chronic. But, as I am still of the opinion that Theo is scum, that leads me to suspect you less Aigis. This is coming purely from the thought that surely the mafia wouldn't do something this incredibly obvious, especially now with Theo doing exactly what Minato said he would - going off on a tangent unrelated to what Aigis is doing.

[M] Greg - Hot Dad
02-19-2017, 11:53 AM
Ken: Do you have any thoughts on who is a bad dude?

Same to you, Elizabeth!

[M] Harry - Dad's Dad
02-19-2017, 12:59 PM
I'm going to have to look back through everything very carefully before I make up my mind. I realise I've been letting my emotions overinfluence my suspicions, and that's not going to lead anywhere productive. I'm going to try and dump all of my preconceptions and start again from the beginning. Might take a while. I'm only ten, after all.

[M] Trevor - Gay Dad
02-19-2017, 01:16 PM
After spending the last couple hours re-reading the thread a couple of times I now think I know who my vote is going towards. This person has checked in, yet not really took the effort to look for any information yet just tow the line. It makes me very suspicious. So with that...

##Vote: Elizabeth

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 01:55 PM
Mitsuru: Yes, because we know the roles in play it's easier to verify and/or disprove role claims as our numbers dwindle and more roles are revealed. Typically a role claim necessities determining if said role is even present in the game. However, with this set-up we will always have an ever-growing base on which to work with regarding the roles of the players remaining.

As for my tendency to agree with Aigis on everything, I merely haven't found anything particularly n

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 01:59 PM
Damn mobile.

Aigis hasn't said much to require comment on that hasn't been addressed by others. Her inability to actually do anything other than dismiss the behavior of Akihiko is interesting and if he flips a particular way she might deserve a bit of analysis regarding her intentions.

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 02:01 PM
As for Yukari, I mean her logic regarding a No Lynch seemed totally ungelpful and I thought that may have been an attempt to avoid the possibility of having Day 2 essentially be a stalling exercise in trying to keep the Town as deprived for information as possible whilst not actually risking the loss of a scum.

I'm pretty sure I and others have made similar points.

[M] Eizen
02-19-2017, 02:22 PM
Oh I can assure you I'm not dismissing Akihiko-senpais behaviour. I've been up front about being suspicious of him from the start. When it was just him claiming to have suspects based on opening posts it was easier to believe that was just him attempting to stir the pot in an admittedly strange way. But the more he throws wild accusations around based on the flimsiest of reasoning the more suspicious I am. The possibility is there that he's a SEES that is just bad at deduction or is being deliberately absurd to provoke reactions, but the longer it goes on with him providing no well reasoned insight into who he finds suspicious or the situation in general, the more convinced I am that he's a Strega member that's playing the fool in the hopes of slipping through because of how absurd he is making him seem like he isn't a threat.

[M] D'Anna
02-19-2017, 03:27 PM
Working on a fairly substantial post now. Will post as soon as it's up.

[M] Joe - Army Dad
02-19-2017, 04:04 PM
Well okay. Sorry had a baby shower I had to go to yesterday and it lasted far longer than I had hoped. I'm totes having one of those if I ever have one. They got so much free shit.

There is so much to read to catch up on. Let me look over everything and I'll be back in a bit with thoughts. I don't have anything today so I should be able to be more present now.

[M] D'Anna
02-19-2017, 04:56 PM
Okay everyone. Here's the Akihiko Manifesto.


Theodore


Voted me as an incentive to clarify my reasoning
Suggests it isn’t uncommon for mafia to puppetmaster the game
Kept vote on me to prevent discussion from losing focus
Did not want to vote no lynch, and said it isn’t necessarily indicative of Mafia (I assume he meant advocating for no lynch) A No Lynch is not indicative of Mafia.
Seemed to be open to the idea of lynching a town: nonchalantly says he doesn’t mind voting off a townie unless it’s a power role.
Voted for Yukari after stating he hopes he “doesn’t contribute to a majority lynch” yet his vote was the fourth one placed onto her.
He even admits he has nothing to go on “would likely prove minimally incriminating, but there’s relatively little to go on”
Has an interest in who possesses which roles
Stated that he was not trying to bandwagon lynch Yukari but instead trying to put pressure on her, despite the fact that she already had three votes before his vote.
Didn’t buy Yukari’s defense
Votes for me again on Day 2, citing various reasons including needless aggression, forced persona and interactions, and backing out of a vote due to a disagreement.
Seemingly has no interest in suspecting Aigis. Doesn’t deny that he tends to agree with her, and only suggests that she deserves analysis if I end up flipping town/mafia.




Aigis


Initially suspected me for “causing dissent and sowing division”
Voted me for apparent evasiveness. This was in response to a question Theodore asked me, when he wanted to know what my reasoning was for suspecting a few people right away. My response to his question was to simply provoke him, as I hadn’t mentioned any names yet he voted me over it. I took this as a sign of insecurity, that perhaps he was concerned I was voting him.
Criticizes Shinjiro’s vote as being a pure provocation and attempt to elicit more information. However, she literally ignored the fact that Theodore’s vote had literally the exact same purpose.
Redacted her vote for me because I was stirring the pot and didn’t have any actual insight
Contributed the fourth vote to Yukari’s bandwagon lynch, with her reason being that Yukari was advocating for a no lynch vote.
Like Theodore, did not buy Yukari’s defense
Brought up Minato and Ken, suspecting them for being inactive
Agreed that at least one active player is mafia
Voted for Minato in order to encourage him to interact more. She criticized Shinjiro for doing this exact thing on Day 1.
Planted doubt on Shinjiro’s vote retraction from Day 1
Stated she had different reasons for voting Yukari than Theodore, but this was not true. She also seemed very familiar with Theodore’s reasoning.
Concedes that Theodore and her agreed a fair amount, but attempts to distance herself from him by stating he was just him “following her lead.” Says that he was doing this to cast suspicion on her as the leader in some form of alliance. Shady.
Continues to suspect me after Theodore has voted for me.




Mitsuru:


Seemed willing to vote no lynch. Considered it a safe bet.
Defended Yukari despite the bandwagon, voted for Theodore because of his change of heart in regards to voting her.
Suspected Theodore again on Day 2 for contributing the fifth vote on her, and for casually pushing for roleclaims.
Seemed to casually trust Junpei.




Koromaru:


Both agreed and disagreed with Yukari’s desire for a no lynch vote. Voted for her because according to him, there was a greater chance of someone voting for no lynch being mafia.
Suggested that the Yukari lynch doesn’t necessarily indicate who is mafia.
Suspected Ken, Junpei and Minato for their inactivity.
Didn’t like my aggressive approach and suspected me for it
Mentioned that there was no concrete reason for suspicion on the Yukari lynch, other than the fact that some people decided voting no lynch = mafia. I found this funny because he was one of these people.
Helps out Aigis by answering a question that was directed at her by Ken.




Minato:


Initially not convinced that I’m mafia. Stated that I was attempting to analyze as best as I can with what limited information I have.
“If Yukari is town, I would stake my reputation that Theodore is mafia.”
Backtracks on this a bit, but still suspects him.
Thought that Shinjiro may have been targeted by both Mafia and the Doctor.
Seems to have valid reasons for why Shinjiro and Theodore could be either town or mafia, but sees Theodore as more suspicious.
Suspected Aigis for planting doubt and siding with Theodore. Found that they were consistently in alignment. Ultimately voted for her because of this.
Roleclaimed Vanilla Townie.
Initially thought Aigis was the Roleblocker, but suspects a third person aside from Theodore and Aigis has this role.
Doesn’t seem to have any issue with Aigis voting for him as a more passive member. This isn’t Minato’s reason for suspecting Aigis.
Sees myself (Akihiko) as an easy target.
Fairly casual interaction with Elizabeth.




Elizabeth:


Doesn’t think I’m mafia despite me acting dodgy.
With only half an hour before the end of Day 1, she states that she does not find Yukari scummy. Instead she seems to suggest that the bandwagon lynch is scummy.
Noticed the Aigis and Theodore chain vote.
Did not vote for anyone because she didn’t find anyone immediately scummy.
Fairly casual interaction with Minato.




Shinjiro:


Voted for Aigis for seemingly no reason.
Voted for Yukari for “limiting the discourse.” Doesn’t advocate for a no lynch vote.
Retracted his vote from Yukari as he felt that the bandwagon lynch needed to be examined. Wants to avoid vote lockdowns.
Voted for Theodore, as he felt their chain voting of Yukari was suspicious.
Voted for Theodore again on Day 2.
Seemed to somewhat suspect Mitsuru for casually trusting Junpei.




Junpei:


Voted for Yukari because she advocated for a no lynch vote. Thought that only mafia would want this.
Doesn’t think I’m mafia, merely thinks I’m just playing aggressively.
Suspects Elizabeth for keeping a low profile.
Wonders why people jumped on Theodore at the end of Day 1.
Suspects Minato.
Voted for Elizabeth for her inactivity.




Ken:


Contributed a mere 2 posts on Day 1. Probably busy.
Suspected Shinjiro for “provoking” Theodore.
Suspected Aigis for her vote on Minato, as he felt she was trying to portray her vote and intent to lynch as non-suspicious.
Voted for me (Akihiko) because I asked him how many townies there are, and I voted him because he didn’t give me an answer I liked. He conceded that this was a retaliation lynch and he retracted his vote.

[M] Mom – Host
02-19-2017, 05:00 PM
| Day Two |
Eight hours remain


Theodore - 2 / 6 (Shinjiro, Mitsuru)
Minato - 1 / 6 (Aigis)
Aigis - 1 / 6 (Minato)
Akihiko - 1 / 6 (Theodore)
Elizabeth - 1 / 6 (Junpei)

Shinjiro- 0 / 6 (Akihiko)
Ken - 0 / 6 (Akihiko)
Akihiko - 0 / 6 (Ken)

(Akihiko, Elizabeth, Ken and Koromaru are yet to vote)

As expected, Day Two has a nice spread of votes!

Just to say though: eight hours left until the deadline. Theodore will be lynched in the deadline passes at 01:00 GMT.

[M] D'Anna
02-19-2017, 05:11 PM
Based on my post, I've come up with a few suspects. My four most suspicious players are Theodore, Aigis, Junpei and Koromaru.

Aigis and Theodore are most likely both mafia. They both voted for Yukari together on Day 1 within twenty minutes of each other. At the time they voted, she had already had 3 votes on her. Their two votes essentially guaranteed she would be lynched.

This isn't the first time the two have worked in tandem. At the start of the game, Theodore asked me to clarify my reasoning for suspecting some players. He voted for me over this. I responded by trying to provoke him, as I felt his reply was rather insecure. It seemed odd that he would go so far as to vote for me over my "suspicion" considering I had yet to even name a single person I was suspicious of. In response to my reply, Aigis also voted for me. Her reasoning was that I was evading the question and vote, which had the explicit purpose of provoking me. However, she would later go on to criticize Shinjiro for doing this exact thing.

Their apparent teamwork has continued today, where they are both suspecting me and Theodore is once again voting for me.


Conclusion:

Theodore and Aigis are by far the most scummy players in this game. If one flips mafia, the other is also likely to be mafia. They seem to have been working together from the outset, with Aigis in particular willing to contradict herself in order to throw more suspicion onto me. They probably thought I would be an easy lynch on Day 1 for my aggressive playstyle, but when Yukari came along they had another scapegoat to use. It's likely they probably thought they had thrown enough suspicion on me to get me lynched today as well.

I'm willing to take the risk on one of them being mafia.

##Vote: Theodore

[M] Joe - Army Dad
02-19-2017, 05:21 PM
Alright, I have my breakfast casserole in the oven and i'm loaded up on coffee now! Let's get this rolling! I think the easiest way for me to share my thoughts on all of this will be to list everyone out and share how I'm feeling here. Some may have more thoughts than others from me. I haven't been active, and I'm super sorry for that. This game started on the worst weekend for me. My workload should be slower on monday so I'll be able to check this tomorrow while i'm there when the day starts as well (If I make it til then :eek: that would suck if when I finally have time I get axed in the night, ugh)

First off, we know 3 are mafia and 3 are roles. I'm going to try my best to not speculate and out someone with a role cause that'd be shitty when that happens to people :stare:

Mitsuru:
I am not feeling a mafia vibe much here. Their behavior has been, well very townish? Maybe i've been duped. I just don't see what they're saying as scummy. I think that may be cause I was also along the lines of thinking that theo was possibly a mafiaoso at the beginning of the day. Them pointing out how much Theo has been evading questions when so many have asked!

Akihiro:
Ohhhh akihiro. I have had this are they aren't they this whole game. Part of me wants to be like "oh a mafia wouldn't be this loud and ridiculous" but then, maybe that's the perfect strategy? Maybe being so random is a way to get people to go off the tracts when trying to pinpoint scum? Your job is to confuse the town? I mean so far your logic has been "Oh a person who posted a few words on the check in day is scummy." "Oh someone who wants to no lynch on day one is scum" "oh when someone does math wrong they're scum" Those are all very, not good reasons to think someone is scummy? I think i'm leaning toward confusing the town intentionally. The last game I played I made the mistake of thinking the loud ridiculous one was town, I don't think i'll be doing that again.

Shinjiro:
The voting history of shinjiro makes me kinda wonder what's going on here. I don't think they intentionally tried to start a bandwagon, as I said before. And as I had said, them noticing the piling on starting they unvoted. That to me shows me that they weren't trying to lead the town to a quick lynch. I mean, that could have been a mafia trying to save their skin but the more posts I read by shinjiro, I'm not sure. I don't think they had strega thoughts about their actions.

Minato:
I honestly don't know what to think about Minato. I have agreed with most their posts they've posted so far. I know that's dangerous too! What if i'm being led astray? But they've been pretty spot on in what I was also thinking. I wary though because I don't want to trust anyone. I see them maybe just being a more quiet town. When they do post, it makes me think and understand their point of view on things.
Ken:
Ken has hardly even posted! While Minato has posted some longer pieces kens have been short. Although I can understand that akihiro vote and then unvote after akihiro started point a finger over a miscount post. :roll2

Aigis:
Aigis. Dear aigis. You are the one I really do not know where I fall. There are posts of yours where I feel you have the town's best interest at heart and then some things you say, my eyebrow perks up. As I mentioned before, I'm not keen on the jump to push an almost bandwagon lynch on day one with you and Theo. But your recent posts have me rethinking that. I'm not sure if it was ill timed or a mafia planned vote.
Theodore:
So theo is pretty much super suspicious in my eyes. Your voting history from day 1 coming into day 2. I was never convinced of the "no lynch = mafia" thing and I don't think I will ever be. When this game is over I will probably be arguing this in the discussion thread for a bit ha. And even though Yukhari, in my eyes, seemed to be making a decent case for themselves, to me it was a silly reason to push for a lynch. I'm leaning toward scum on theo but I am not completely sold on it either. Ahhh this game, I dunno what to think.

Koromaru:
For one, I enjoy this role play of barking. Thought i'd get that out there haha. That's a fun way to do it. That has nothing to do with my suspicions, I just thought i'd share ha.

I really haven't been able to really get a read on Koromaru either. They seem to really be contributing and when asked, they explain. I dunno if this is a smooth mafiaso or a good town. Of course, they were also one of the ones to vote for poor Yukari based on the no-lynch thing. Which I'm again, not happy as an excuse on day one. So they aren't completely in the clear for me but nothing else has really jumped out at me for me to be really convinced.
Junpei:

Junpei has been fairly inactive themselves, mentioned my inactivity twice now but has posted one or two sentences for each post and a bit less than I have. They said they spent the time to re-read the thread and then haven't posted much to even participate? Strange.

Overall. I've been wishy washy on akihiro this whole time. I think they are, I think they aren't. I think they are. I think they aren't! Well I feel that maybe there's too much waffling for me. I don't think they are being productive to the town. I have had past experiences in these games where I think the loud ones couldn't possibly be mafia cause that's waaay too much spotlight on them.

So that being said

##vote: Akhiro

[M] Kurt - Cool Dad
02-19-2017, 05:24 PM
Arf!

[##vote: Akihiko]

Woof!

[I can't help but feel that his attempts at pointing fingers look very desperate, with all that Ken business being exceptionally baffling. Again, might be just that his particular style doesn't sit well with me, but while I was suspicious before, this act pretty much cemented it for me, especially since he later tried to back out of it somehow.]

Bark!

[You can't just point to yet another flimsy reason, go "Aha! Now I've got you, mafia scum!", back out from that, and then expect people not be suspicious. Of course, I could always be wrong, but in my view, this is way more suspicious than anything anyone else has done so far. So either he's mafia, or just someone who thinks they're doing a better job than they actually are.]

[M] Kurt - Cool Dad
02-19-2017, 05:26 PM
Grr!

[Just thought I should clarify this again - I did not vote Yukari because I though no lynch=mafia. I simply wanted to vote someone and she was the only one that gave me any reason other than "you suspect me so I'm voting to lynch you"

[M] Joe - Army Dad
02-19-2017, 05:27 PM
Oh man, as I was typing all that up, akihiro posted sooo much. Let me look over that.

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 05:46 PM
Wait, how am I suspicious for NOT suspecting someone, Akihiko? What the hell?

I mean so far you've been the primary contributor on piling suspicion on Aigis; yet I'm the only one who out of the many other persons who are being targeted by you for it??

Also Koromaru literally just posted that he didn't particularly suspect Yukari either and still voted for her anyway?

I don't understand you.

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 05:51 PM
I mean regarding Yukari, Koromaru admitted he was voting her for ancillary reasons, whilst Junpei and Aigis voted using the same criteria as I did. What sealed the deal for me was the apparent "if you voted for me your scum" argument which seemed inconsistent with her insistence on data and mathematics up to that point. With relatively few narratives, that was the one I felt most strongly on.

It was an objectively bad choice, but I wasn't the lone person contributing.

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 05:57 PM
Suggests it isn’t uncommon for mafia to puppetmaster the game


Ah yes, truly my masterminding at work. :p

[M] D'Anna
02-19-2017, 05:58 PM
Koromaru;3654637'][I can't help but feel that his attempts at pointing fingers look very desperate, with all that Ken business being exceptionally baffling. Again, might be just that his particular style doesn't sit well with me, but while I was suspicious before, this act pretty much cemented it for me, especially since he later tried to back out of it somehow.]

What's desperate is someone taking the easy out and bandwagon lynching the player with the most votes or generally aggressive playstyle. You don't want to bother scumhunting, so instead your plan is to just go with the flow and vote me out.


[You can't just point to yet another flimsy reason, go "Aha! Now I've got you, mafia scum!", back out from that, and then expect people not be suspicious.]

Like how you voted for Yukari for a flimsy reason, backed out of it by saying the lynch "doesn't necessarily indicate who is Mafia," and are somehow not expecting yourself to look suspicious?


Theodore;3654648']Wait, how am I suspicious for NOT suspecting someone, Akihiko? What the hell?

It's called playing favorites. If you're town you should be suspicious of everyone. Not that you would know that, seeing as you aren't town.


I mean so far you've been the primary contributor on piling suspicion on Aigis; yet I'm the only one who out of the many other persons who are being targeted by you for it??

I actually haven't. Minato is the one who was most suspicious of Aigis.

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 06:00 PM
Minato is significantly less active.


Not that you would know that, seeing as you aren't town.

lol

[M] Trevor - Gay Dad
02-19-2017, 06:02 PM
Mitsuru and Elizabeth I think are working together. When I went through the posts I saw a trend of Mitsuru blaming Theodore for following someone, yet tend to see her ask Elizabeth what she is doing. I saw this a few times and it is why I suspected Elizabeth. Then I see Elizabeth change up their play style and put a vote on a easy target. My vote stands as I think they may be Mafia. Just what I am witnessing and why they came up with the Theodore following angle. Puts pressure on town while starting a lynch mob.

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 06:03 PM
I'm not even playing favorites, my friend. I've barely put any heat on anyone other than you and Yukari so you're kinda lacking on data. I mean, it's very possible Aigis could be trying to make me look like I'm being sycophantic to her logic, but I fail to see how you're being like that when I've been supportive of Koromaru as well.

[M] D'Anna
02-19-2017, 06:15 PM
Junpei;3654656']Mitsuru and Elizabeth I think are working together. When I went through the posts I saw a trend of Mitsuru blaming Theodore for following someone, yet tend to see her ask Elizabeth what she is doing. I saw this a few times and it is why I suspected Elizabeth. Then I see Elizabeth change up their play style and put a vote on a easy target. My vote stands as I think they may be Mafia. Just what I am witnessing and why they came up with the Theodore following angle. Puts pressure on town while starting a lynch mob.

Possible. I don't discredit this. I just think it's far more likely that Theodore and Aigis are working together. They've been consistently voting together while latching onto the same scapegoats for two straight days now.


Theodore;3654655']Minato is significantly less active.

Doesn't mean he's any less of a contributor to the suspicion of Aigis.


Theodore;3654657']I'm not even playing favorites, my friend. I've barely put any heat on anyone other than you and Yukari so you're kinda lacking on data. I mean, it's very possible Aigis could be trying to make me look like I'm being sycophantic to her logic, but I fail to see how you're being like that when I've been supportive of Koromaru as well.

Are you willing to lynch Aigis?

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 06:17 PM
Doesn't mean he's any less of a contributor to the suspicion of Aigis.
If's he posts less he's contributing less. What is your point?


Are you willing to lynch Aigis?
If it comes down to it? Abso-smurfing-lutely. I assume you mean you want me to lynche her right now merely to appease you, though?

[M] D'Anna
02-19-2017, 06:28 PM
Theodore;3654660']If's he posts less he's contributing less. What is your point?

My point is he's still contributing to her suspicion. Regardless of how much or how little he participates, he still brought up many valid points about her.


If it comes down to it? Abso-smurfing-lutely. I assume you mean you want me to lynche her right now merely to appease you, though?

"If it comes down to it?" That sounds like something a mafia would say when he's forced to vote for another mafia player just to save himself.

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 06:43 PM
That's something a Mafia would say? You're impossible.

[M] Kurt - Cool Dad
02-19-2017, 06:48 PM
Bork

[Clearly, no other reason for anyone to say that. This is exactly what I mean - you are grasping at straws.]

[M] D'Anna
02-19-2017, 06:55 PM
Theodore;3654664']That's something a Mafia would say? You're impossible.

I mean you can continue to downplay or deny it (which you are currently doing), or you could just come out and say something like "I'm town."

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 06:57 PM
But I'm not, remember? I don't tell lies.

[M] Apollo
02-19-2017, 06:58 PM
I should say that I still 100% believe that Theodore is Mafia, but he is easily the least dangerous of them all. I consider Aigis the greatest threat, as she is very sharp and very good at controlling the game. The quietest one probably has the power role, but ultimately their are no guarantees. It could honestly just be Akihiko playing an amazing bluff, but I find that so hard to believe. It's most likely Koromaru.

I find it interesting that Elizabeth went Akihiko. Seems reckless to me to go for someone like that, when there are more dangerous players on the field. Akihiko is a guaranteed lynch tomorrow if the lynch goes wrong today. I'm not sure of the maths, but I think we'd have enough time to win, right?

Anyway, for the sake of at least getting one Mafia out today: ##unvote: Aigis

##vote: Theodore

[M] D'Anna
02-19-2017, 07:06 PM
Minato;3654671']I should say that I still 100% believe that Theodore is Mafia, but he is easily the least dangerous of them all. I consider Aigis the greatest threat, as she is very sharp and very good at controlling the game. The quietest one probably has the power role, but ultimately their are no guarantees. It could honestly just be Akihiko playing an amazing bluff, but I find that so hard to believe. It's most likely Koromaru.

I find it interesting that Elizabeth went Akihiko. Seems reckless to me to go for someone like that, when there are more dangerous players on the field. Akihiko is a guaranteed lynch tomorrow if the lynch goes wrong today. I'm not sure of the maths, but I think we'd have enough time to win, right?

Anyway, for the sake of at least getting one Mafia out today: ##unvote: Aigis

##vote: Theodore

This post is pretty suspect. How or why would I suddenly be a guaranteed lynch tomorrow?

If today's lynch goes wrong, wouldn't you go after Shinjiro? After all you were basically torn between him and Theodore. This isn't consistent with your thoughts earlier.

Almost seems like you're trying to prepare tomorrow's lynch and set the mafia up for a clear path to victory.

[M] Trevor - Gay Dad
02-19-2017, 07:10 PM
Akihiko;3654672']
Minato;3654671']I should say that I still 100% believe that Theodore is Mafia, but he is easily the least dangerous of them all. I consider Aigis the greatest threat, as she is very sharp and very good at controlling the game. The quietest one probably has the power role, but ultimately their are no guarantees. It could honestly just be Akihiko playing an amazing bluff, but I find that so hard to believe. It's most likely Koromaru.

I find it interesting that Elizabeth went Akihiko. Seems reckless to me to go for someone like that, when there are more dangerous players on the field. Akihiko is a guaranteed lynch tomorrow if the lynch goes wrong today. I'm not sure of the maths, but I think we'd have enough time to win, right?

Anyway, for the sake of at least getting one Mafia out today: ##unvote: Aigis

##vote: Theodore

This post is pretty suspect. How or why would I suddenly be a guaranteed lynch tomorrow?

If today's lynch goes wrong, wouldn't you go after Shinjiro? After all you were basically torn between him and Theodore. This isn't consistent with your thoughts earlier.

Almost seems like you're trying to prepare tomorrow's lynch and set the mafia up for a clear path to victory.


That brings me to my last vote. It seems like a set up of a group using if you say it enough people will believe. I have gone through the thread and voted who I believed is mafia. Since I am on them they will kill me in night 2. If it is me who is killed at night you will know who the mafia are.

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 07:12 PM
What the hell is this game? xD

[M] Jeff - Single Dad
02-19-2017, 07:13 PM
Glad to see players putting a lot of thought into their impressions and stances on all the different players and conflicts. I've expressed my suspicion of Theodore and Aigis before, and I'm sticking with that for now. If Theodore turns out to be Town, then of course it's time to re-evaluate everything from the ground up.

To respond to Minato's earlier theories regarding the doc and Mafia. Your theory sounds plausible, though if the Mafia did target me that says very little about Theodore's alignment, since the argument "he talked against you so you killed him" is so easily played straight or subverted that either way works; it's very possible the Mafia simply planned on convincing everyone with ~words~ the following day.

Also, let's not forget the possibility, unlikely as it is, that the Mafia deliberately did not target anyone last night so the compulsive doctor would think the one he protected was targeted and put his faith in him. It would be an incredibly daring move though, so it's most likely not the case. Just wanted to bring it up.

[M] Apollo
02-19-2017, 07:20 PM
If Theodore comes up Town (which he won't), I would certainly be after Shinjiro, as they exist in opposition to one another.

I doubt anyone else would, though. They would probably just lynch you for being unpredictable as hell, which is a very Mafia trait.

I personally think you're just trying to stir as many pots as possible to gauge responses - you've attacked... I think everyone in the game at some point. This is a very well-established tactic for drawing out Mafia - Theo and Aigis completely fell apart when I accused them. When attacked, Town panic in a different way to Mafia, which I think you know. And I think that's your game, more than anything.

I want to draw attention to the fact that the three people more aligned with one another than any other selection of characters have all voted Akihiko - their loudest opponent.

I appreciate where Junpei is coming from. Mitsuru and Elizabeth have a lot in common, but not nearly as much. Myself and Elizabeth, also, but again - not nearly as much as Aigis, Theodore and Koromaru. Shinjiro, Junpei and Ken are the only ones I would gamble are Town, if only because they have been very inconsistent with their opinions - a very Town trait.

I strongly doubt I will survive the night. I suspect it will either be you or me and, as said above, you are just too easy a lynch target to waste a night kill on.

[M] Apollo
02-19-2017, 07:23 PM
Shinjiro;3654675']Glad to see players putting a lot of thought into their impressions and stances on all the different players and conflicts. I've expressed my suspicion of Theodore and Aigis before, and I'm sticking with that for now. If Theodore turns out to be Town, then of course it's time to re-evaluate everything from the ground up.

To respond to Minato's earlier theories regarding the doc and Mafia. Your theory sounds plausible, though if the Mafia did target me that says very little about Theodore's alignment, since the argument "he talked against you so you killed him" is so easily played straight or subverted that either way works; it's very possible the Mafia simply planned on convincing everyone with ~words~ the following day.

Also, let's not forget the possibility, unlikely as it is, that the Mafia deliberately did not target anyone last night so the compulsive doctor would think the one he protected was targeted and put his faith in him. It would be an incredibly daring move though, so it's most likely not the case. Just wanted to bring it up.

The reason I think they targeted you is because I think they are playing a fairly standard game. Opponents are the default targets for standards Mafiosos. I genuinely think it's just as simple as that in this case.

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 07:42 PM
Two people seem totally convinced I'm Mafia. Fun.

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 07:45 PM
Minato and Akihiko, can you both please go into more detail about your conclusions? Can you explain why you believe Town and Mafia behave they way they do?

And Minato, why are you even considering why type of strategy the Mafia is going for when we've yet to grab one?

[M] D'Anna
02-19-2017, 07:48 PM
So Minato, you were saying that the mafia would move to lynch me, not that I would be an easy lynch for you personally. Your wording definitely confused me.

At this point in time I think Theodore is the safest bet. Someone can investigate Minato should Theodore flip town. As it stands right now there are two real groups that could potentially be mafia.

Group 1: Theodore, Aigis, Koromaru (and possibly Elizabeth). Group 2: Minato, Mitsuru, Elizabeth.

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 07:50 PM
Not to dissuade the consideration of strategy and tactics in voting, but both of you guys seem pretty self-assured you've got things figured out without actually doing a strong job of detailing as to WHY you're so confident.

I mean, if killing me would help sort out and rationalize people's behavior, go ahead. Akihiko and Aigis, and to a lesser extent Mitsuru, Minato, and Koromaru, all have invested stakes on how I flip based on their interactions with me and who of those who have agreed with or accused so if the town reaches they conclusion I'm willing to bite the bullet.

That being said, I still think Akihiko is scummy.

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 07:51 PM
Why would either of those groups be assuredly composed of Mafia? And why didn't you include yourself in either of them? xD

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 07:52 PM
I mean arguably the first thing the Mafia tries to avoid is voting consistently together and agreeing all the time.

[M] Adama
02-19-2017, 07:56 PM
I'm taking a nap. If I'm going to be dead by the time I wake, fair enough. Maybe some craziness will be sorted out as a consequence of it.

[M] Kurt - Cool Dad
02-19-2017, 07:57 PM
Woof!

[Those are some very specific groups for this early in the game.]