Tales of Mafia XXXI - Super Fun Game Thread

[[M] Mom – Host]

Here is your skit, Rita!


http://i.imgur.com/1W1frfG.jpg?2

Ugh, this is so stupid.

http://i.imgur.com/bdZjBBv.png?1

Hey, maybe one of you losers could reveal something useful before we all die.

http://i.imgur.com/WddNl4X.png

Umm, I think maybe we're making too many assumptions about the last skits.

http://i.imgur.com/j0uhrgL.png

We were assuming that the mafia the bodyguard suspects is Lloyd, but what if it wasn't? Not to mention, if they're a survivor, why would they be trying to lynch mafia anyway? It would be a safe person for them to guard. It just wouldn't make much sense unless they had other motives.

http://i.imgur.com/j0uhrgL.png

What's more, the skit never said that the bodyguard has tried to lynch the mafia they suspect, just that they have an inkling as to who it may be. In the end, this could mean nothing, but these are things we should keep in mind.

http://i.imgur.com/LoviWXt.jpg?1

Excellent deduction skills, young miss. Indeed, I think that is valuable information to keep in mind. We mustn't jump to conclusions, after all.

http://i.imgur.com/Y5w8A1i.gif?1

On that note, I've managed to gain some more intel of my own. It seems the number of traitors we face... is three.

[[M] Aaron]

So there is three mafia. Got to read the skit more to try and see everything else.

[[M] Aaron]

So does it also say the bodyguard has not cast a vote for a mafia member, yet suspect one that is right? I may have misread that.

[[M] Felix]

Raven;3663560']So does it also say the bodyguard has not cast a vote for a mafia member, yet suspect one that is right? I may have misread that.

Well, it doesn't say that have tried to vote for mafia, but it also doesn't say they haven't. Just that they have an inkling of who it is based off of their behavior. So, possibly, what the skit might be saying is that another mafia player is someone the body guard/survivor is someone they specifically haven't mentioned because that's who they're using to avoid being night killed right now.

Summarizing again, as I see it.
Bodyguard is also survivor
Behavior indicates they may have figured out who one of the mafia.
They may or may not have voted for this person.
It wouldn't make sense for them to vote for mafia, since they can use that person to avoid being night killed.
But that still doesn't mean they aren't working against mafia. It could be another Colette situation, where they're making a strange choice.


I think it's awesome how you're not getting hung up on what I said. That's really mature of you.

And I think it's really mature how you ignore my reasoning simply to fuel your own stubborn pride and that you feel superior to everyone. You're a smart scientist, but your personality towards your colleague's reminds me of my friend Hubert. He's a really nice fella on the inside, but he's a little young and stubborn too. It keeps him from seeing others as intellectual equals or seeing his own faults. I call him Lil' bro sometimes.

I know! I'll call you Lil' sis!

Anyway, thanks for the skit Lil' Sis. I'm going to go get some sleep!

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/fd/fe/30/fdfe304a42e02cd9d08a75fc9da0e7ca.jpg

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

The creepy doll said something interesting - Lloyd wouldn't need to be the Watcher to know what happened, he'd just need one of his mafia buddies to tell him. So the likelihood that he is indeed the roleblocker seems quite high, and the likelihood that another Mafia is a Watcher also seems quite high.

We know that Eizen targeted Rowen night 1, as per Lloyd's claim. And I really want to hear Eizen explain what he was doing there. Lloyd also claimed Velvet targeted Rowen that night; any truth to that Velvet?


I know! I'll call you Lil' sis!

You do what you want, Pascal. I'm interested in your situational analysis, not your emotional over-reactions. By the way; I know you're super happy about your public deduction of Lloyd, but - assuming you're town for the moment - bear in mind everything you reveal here is being read by at least three enemies. The lyncher and survivor could also be playing against you. So don't be reckless about what you reveal.

[[M] Al - Biker Dad]

Lloyd;3663521']Fair enough. I'm a Watcher. I watched Rowen Night 1 and saw that he was visited by Eizen and Velvet. I was blocked Night 2, by Colette's Jailing if I had to guess (for the record I was trying to watch Colette). No I have no idea what caused the dual cancel in the first night but it sure as hell wasn't the two of us.


Lloyd is straight up lying. And the only person I could think of who would possibly lie about that at this stage is scum.

##Vote: Lloyd

[[M] Al - Biker Dad]

We still have plenty of time left in this phase, and I want to make sure that we get as much use out of it as possible. Have to check up on the thread a bit.

That said, Lloyd is 100% scum and he is getting lynched no matter what.

[[M] Adama]

...now that's interesting. Can't wait to see how this plays out.

[[M] Anise]

Oh, Wow! A lot has happened while I've been away. Sorry for my absence. I had a very busy and sickly day. I'm going to try to recap a bit on what happened.



Pascal;3663564']


Summarizing again, as I see it.
Bodyguard is also survivor
Behavior indicates they may have figured out who one of the mafia.
They may or may not have voted for this person.
It wouldn't make sense for them to vote for mafia, since they can use that person to avoid being night killed.
But that still doesn't mean they aren't working against mafia. It could be another Colette situation, where they're making a strange choice.



This is a great summary, thank you.


Lloyd is 100% mafia. Too much adds up. I thought colette had been right yesterday but I wasn't entirely sure so I was waiting for lloyd to chime in but it looks like he just bled out the day and no one actually pointed at him after I left. So sorry Mikleo :( I was trying to take a calculated risk and I was wrong.

I'm going to vote lloyd but I don't want to push to a majority just yet when we have a lot more time to figure out the rest of the scum.


Raven;3663544']
In fact I am the Miller. No real special power to it. I have no night action, and am as vanilla as it gets in this game.


yeah I'm also wondering what the hell here. Miller is such a convenient role to claim.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Anise;3663592']


Raven;3663544']
In fact I am the Miller. No real special power to it. I have no night action, and am as vanilla as it gets in this game.


yeah I'm also wondering what the hell here. Miller is such a convenient role to claim.

"If anyone wants to investigate me I'll show up as mafia but I'm actually innocent".

So either Raven is telling the truth or he's mafia. We can pretty much rule out him being the Lyncher or the Survivor at this point, as if a cop investigated him and he showed up as 'other' instead of mafia then he'd be signing his own death warrant. Given the timing of the claim, my hypothesis would be that Raven is not the Miller, but a Watcher, and he passed the information on to Lloyd. But there's no proof of that, just a hunch.

For now, I think the smart play is just to vote for Lloyd and see what happens in the night phase.

If Lloyd turns up town then we've been well and truly played.

[##Vote: Lloyd]

[[M] Aaron]

This was me day one. Easily backed up as my claim as Miller.


Raven;3663037']I was also debating on doing an early role claim for myself to try and fish out scum. Decided against it as I feel scum will try and claim my role and it will set them up as definitive scum.

I was sharing all I wasn't and role claimed simply so Lloyd or any other scum couldn't get the claim in. I was wagering a guess that with Lloyd Lynched, it would then turn on me the next day as a few have been on me for trying to share any information I can think of.

Also notice nobody else has claimed Miller though it would be a safe claim as if claiming Vanilla. The reason is I am the Miller. I have no other abilities. I shared to help all Town narrow in on who is scum.

[[M] Aaron]

Also in the interest of me sharing all I am thinking I will post who I think the scum are.

1. Lloyd - Sorry man, a lot of evidence against you at the moment that is very hard to ignore. If you are telling the truth and are the Watcher I am sorry, but it just doesn't look like it at the moment.

2. Jade - I am torn if Jade is scum, or the Lyncher to be honest. She just hasn't given more then your argument is wishy washy, and I am smarter so listen.

3. Rowan- Something seems off, just can't place it yet. Possibly the survivor.

These are the three I have in my mind to vote for. Though today it will be Lloyd unless we get new evidence against it. Just don't want the day to end early. If he does turn up innocent I will be looking right at Jade.

[[M] Trevor - Gay Dad]

Raven;3663603']2. Jade - I am torn if Jade is scum, or the Lyncher to be honest. She just hasn't given more then your argument is wishy washy, and I am smarter so listen.

Of all the objectionable things in this pair of sentences (including that your new thing simply seems to be bandying the same accusations toward me that I do toward you), I'm perhaps most put off by your failure to recognize that I'm a man. Were my flowing, gorgeous locks and incredible complexion not big enough tip-offs?

[[M] Elize]

Raven;3663603']
2. Jade - I am torn if Jade is scum, or the Lyncher to be honest. She just hasn't given more then your argument is wishy washy, and I am smarter so listen.

Um, Raven, you do know Jade is a man, right?

And about your miller claim Raven - I would have bought it much more if you announced it immediately at the First Day. Having such a... difficult role, I would expect people with unhelpful roles like Miller to announce they are millers immediately so as to prevent firstly Cops from investigating, and dissuade and traitors from counter-claiming.

As it happens, no-one has come forward with a miller counter-claim. And your post does softly give notice that you have something. If only Teepo wasn't bothering me, I would've applied pressure on you to actually reveal yourself.

As it is, there is no direct way of proving your claim. Thankfully, there's other matters to attend to.

[[M] Aaron]

The reason I didn't reveal it day one was I was thinking if the cop called out Scum and they claimed Miller, I could counter claim and either myself or they would be lynched, and it would reveal a scum. It is the only advantage to it really. Besides that it is actually rather Vanilla, except it can nail you if investigated. Just trying to give the town as much information as I can.

[[M] Elize]

72101

Hmm. I've been thinking Teepo, and I think it's time for us to use our Mystic Arte.

72102

I was thinking the same thing. We'd get more information. Plus, everyone's using them. We'd end up being the odd ones out!

72103

Okay!


Mystic Arte


http://31.media.tumblr.com/1c8eb5924520cd895d48cbcdb4085015/tumblr_mklmwrZ0UA1qljdv4o7_r1_500.gif

Ready, Teepo!?

--

I was born ready, Elize!

http://i994.photobucket.com/albums/af62/ritamara/animations/negativegate.gif

Charging up!


--

Summoning Circle nearly ready!

http://68.media.tumblr.com/9a1b4163406b7b04eed3679c136c8d50/tumblr_mklmwrZ0UA1qljdv4o4_500.gif

Supreme Overlord Kohaku summoned!

--

Are you guys ready for this?



##Skit: Activate!

[[M] Mom – Host]

Here is your skit, Elize!


http://i.imgur.com/mvPBCzn.jpg

What the heck is going on Teepo? We need more information!

http://i.imgur.com/HkMr5gF.jpg?1

I'm here~~

http://i.imgur.com/4AfYQUn.gif

Miss Kohaku? Are you allowed to show up in our skits like this?

http://i.imgur.com/jQARDF0.jpg?1

Of course! I am Supreme Overlord, after all. I can do whatever I want.

http://i.imgur.com/7VNXc3T.png

...

http://i.imgur.com/mvPBCzn.jpg

So, do you actually have information for us?

http://i.imgur.com/L7TFHgG.png?1

I sure do! It seems that at least one mafia member has used their skit. And at least one mafia member has not. As for the third one...

http://i.imgur.com/HkMr5gF.jpg?1

Who knows?

http://i.imgur.com/lC1fLuZ.jpg?1

Oh, and here's an extra little tip! When the watcher and/or tracker target the ascetic, they won't be told their action couldn't be completed. It'll just look like nothing happened!

http://i.imgur.com/j0uhrgL.png

Thanks Miss Kohaku. That gives us a few more things to consider.

http://i.imgur.com/lC1fLuZ.jpg?1

I'd think over it carefully. Halftime is coming up and there are only 4 skits left going in to the rest of the game.

[[M] Mom – Host]

HALFTIME!!

Majority lynches can now happen. 6 are needed for a majority.

Votes:
Lloyd - 4 (Pascal, Jade, Velvet, Rita)

2 more votes needed on Lloyd for a majority. If a majority is not reached, you have 24 hours left!

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

Velvet;3663586']Lloyd is straight up lying. And the only person I could think of who would possibly lie about that at this stage is scum.

##Vote: Lloyd

A strong statement. Clearly Velvet is suggesting that they have a Role of some sort, although I notice that they stop short of actually role-claiming. Perhaps Velvet has the very roles that Lloyd is claiming? Some clarification on this point would not go amiss. Would you care to go into further detail, Velvet?

If we lynch Lloyd and he should happen to not be a mafia, I would suggest that Velvet becomes the most obvious mafia suspect.

[[M] Aaron]

So we learned that on Mafia member has used a skit, one has not, and one is unknown. Let's list those still alive who have used their skits so far:

Pascal
Anize
Raven
Lloyd
Rita
Elize

Now those that have not used them:

Jade
Rowan
Velvet
Eizen

That means one of those 4 are a conferred mafia.

[[M] Aaron]

I am also assuming that Lloyd was the skit activation as mafia if he does end up turning scum.

[[M] Felix]

Rita;3663585']

I know! I'll call you Lil' sis!

You do what you want, Pascal. I'm interested in your situational analysis, not your emotional over-reactions. By the way; I know you're super happy about your public deduction of Lloyd, but - assuming you're town for the moment - bear in mind everything you reveal here is being read by at least three enemies. The lyncher and survivor could also be playing against you. So don't be reckless about what you reveal.

Ha ha! Thanks, Lil' Sis. I always do what I want, but I'm happy you like the name. It's also great to hear you're interested in my thoughts now. Good scientists work together!

https://vignette4.wikia.nocookie.net/aselia/images/2/23/Chibi_Pascal.png/revision/latest?cb=20161207060549

Sorry, I didn't know I had such over-reactions. I wish I could make them less obvious, like you and Hu. It's really neat how you keep your emotions in your cheeks and in your voice instead of letting it show to others.

I like people's plan of waiting on Eizen. Right now, the most suspicious people to me (outside of Lloyd) are Jade, Rowan, and Raven.

I'd like to hear what Eizen says too. Depending on how trustworthy he sounds and what he found about Rowan, it could potentially remove one person from my list.

[[M] Aaron]

I too am waiting on what Eizen has to say. Day two he voted Velvet then disappeared. Over 48 hours without checking in on the game is rather suspicious. I would like to hear what he has either found out, or if he is just laying low letting Town scrap it out.

[[M] Elize]

I'm curious too, but Leather Coat Dude did say he would be busy... *gasp* maybe he's looting and pirating! That good for nothing pirate!

But no I do think our Pirate had something over the weekend.

[[M] Felix]

While we're waiting on tall, blonde, and absent, we can still try to discuss other things. I'll start with this. I've learned we need to really take the skits literally and not assume much of anything.


Kohaku;3663616']Here is your skit, Elize!

Oh, and here's an extra little tip! When the watcher and/or tracker target the ascetic, they won't be told their action couldn't be completed. It'll just look like nothing happened!

http://i.imgur.com/j0uhrgL.png

Thanks Miss Kohaku. That gives us a few more things to consider.

http://i.imgur.com/lC1fLuZ.jpg?1

I'd think over it carefully. Halftime is coming up and there are only 4 skits left going in to the rest of the game.[/B][/CENTER]

So if you are a good aligned watcher or tracker, and the Ascetic character is mafia, it might work as sort of a stealthy shield. Or, pardon my nerd, a cloaking device. Could work the opposite too.

As if things weren't easy enough, just because you didn't get anything suspicious on the character you were watching or tracking, it doesn't necessarily mean that nothing weird happened. You just didn't hear about it because your ability was blocked by the Ascetic ability.

[[M] Elize]

Hmm, I'm not so sure the ascetic would be a traitor. That's really powerful being immune to all night actions. And not being immune to a night kill wouldn't matter because no-one would target them. More likely the ascetic is not a traitor, but I could be wrong.

Also, Rowen, I have a question: you said Velvet definitely has a power role. Could you say why? Because to my knowledge, Velvet said Lloyd was lying when Lloyd told us Velvet visited you, and the skit only tells us Eizen definitely visited you. I'm just not sure how you could say for certain Velvet visited you.

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

Elize;3663678']Also, Rowen, I have a question: you said Velvet definitely has a power role. Could you say why? Because to my knowledge, Velvet said Lloyd was lying when Lloyd told us Velvet visited you, and the skit only tells us Eizen definitely visited you. I'm just not sure how you could say for certain Velvet visited you.

The fact that Velvet is so certain that Lloyd was lying suggested to me that they know something which definitely confirms that Lloyd is lying. The most obvious reason for this seemed to be that Velvet had the power roles which Lloyd was claiming.

Perhaps I've misunderstood the situation. Nevertheless, Velvet being so emphatic about Lloyd's guilt makes them an obvious mafia candidate should it turn out that Lloyd is town.

[[M] Elize]

I understand where you're coming from Rowen, but by that logic, Pascal is an obvious traitor candidate for being certain Lloyd is a traitor.

Everything you've said about Velvet could be said of most everyone who's spoken about Lloyd. Velvet could be emphatic about Lloyd's guilt because he's lying.

Honestly at this stage I haven't really gotten a good read on Velvet yet. When she isn't being abrasive she's actually pretty helpful at times but I can't shake the fact that I haven't really formed too strong an opinion on her yet. And I hate not having an opinion on their alignment one way or another.

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

But Velvet did not GIVE a good reason for suspecting Lloyd. That is what I find suspicious.

[[M] Elize]

Hmm, I suppose. Velvet saying Lloyd is lying about her visiting Rowen does not automatically mean that Velvet does not have a power role. In theory, Velvet could've targeted someone else, fulfilling the classic trick of not explicitly lying.

Having said that, if Velvet has a helpful power role I wouldn't want to be the one to out them when they don't have enough information to give us. Hmm.

[[M] Felix]

Elize;3663678']Hmm, I'm not so sure the ascetic would be a traitor. That's really powerful being immune to all night actions. And not being immune to a night kill wouldn't matter because no-one would target them. More likely the ascetic is not a traitor, but I could be wrong.

;)


Pascal;3663675']Could work the opposite too.

It's a decent theory, sort of like how I think that since there's only one Roleblocker that they are almost certainly mafia. It's still an important variable to keep in mind.

It's also not certain, but in my mind right now, Velvet is simply certain because I've provided very compelling evidence. Hard for me to blame her for being so positive on her choice. I haven't seen super scummy activity from Velvet. She's suggested ideas and defended her views. I think she wasted a lot of time defending herself to Colette and Rowen, but that is what it is.

Time will tell how good my instincts are. That's why I like hard evidence better!

[[M] Aaron]

We are running out of time on today. I was waiting to hear what people had to say about the skit, but nobody has talked about it much. I would also like to hear what our pirate friend has to say as this is beyond weekend busy now.

[[M] Eizen]

Well, I don't really have anything substantial to add at this point other than that I'm back. Here's hoping I'll get to live to the next day. There's a lot of discussion going on and I really want to take my time digesting it all.

[[M] Aaron]

Fair enough. Welcome back Eizen.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Eizen;3663690']Well, I don't really have anything substantial to add at this point other than that I'm back. Here's hoping I'll get to live to the next day. There's a lot of discussion going on and I really want to take my time digesting it all.

If you could add something just a little more substantial than that that'd be great. You know, what were you doing targeting Rowen on night one, for example?

[[M] Aaron]

I would like to discuss as well the 4 who we know one (just not which one) is scum.

Eizen
Rowan
Jade
Velvet

Eizen though was absent gave a heads up. Wasn't acting scummy before that so he isn't on the top of my list.

Raven all game I have had in the town side. The way she has acted has made me think that she is actively seeking out scum and I am not suspicious of her.

Rowan I have suspicions but it has been going down some as he has been more active in the searches for scum and I have seen him try and give us some insite on events.

Jade since day one I have suspected being scum and I am more convinced each time he types. He is in to point a finger then disappears. Only shows up to really point out how Scum hunting and information sharing is ridiculous and ghosts again. He is my top pick as the scum who has not used a skit yet.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Raven;3663694']

Raven all game I have had in the town side. The way she has acted has made me think that she is actively seeking out scum and I am not suspicious of her.


...*Velvet?

I'm not very suspicious of Jade. I'm not sure what it is, maybe I'm just attracted to his mystique, who knows? From those four I'm most suspicious of Eizen as he has an active ability and he went to see Rowen night one. Although if Lloyd does turn out to be Mafia, would he have dropped his buddy Eizen in it with his Watcher story?

[[M] Aaron]

Yes I meant Velvet.

[[M] Aaron]

I would bet money on Jade being scum. I have what I need for 80% positive on him. He will be my vote the next day.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

...Hmm

##Unvote: Lloyd
##Vote: Raven

[[M] Mom – Host]

Let me crunch some number here.

Lloyd - 3 (Pascal, Jade, Velvet, Rita)
Raven - 1 (Rita)


And that's the end of day three! Town has spoken and our next lynch victim is...

http://i.imgur.com/nCT2hiM.png

The charming Lloyd who was a Mafia Roleblocker played but the very skilled Karifean!

Good job town, one down, two to go!


Night Three

You have 24 hours to send me your night actions. Good luck surviving the night!

[[M] Mom – Host]

GUESS WHAT I'm ending the night phase a few hours early because I'm not feeling the greatest and probably won't be up for it later. But that's okay, everyone still had time to scheme and plot.

As for what happened last night, it seems that someone was killed...

And that poor victim is none other than


http://i.imgur.com/Z34Ib1b.png

The intimidating pirate himself, Eizen, who was a Town Cop played by Forum Bestie Fynn. Good game friend!

Day Four

Welp, this places town in a bit of a negative situation, but I bet you guys can pull through if you really try! You have 48 hours with a majority lynch being able to occur after halftime. 5 votes are needed for a majority

Happy hunting~

[[M] Trevor - Gay Dad]

Well, this is puts us in dire straits, doesn't it?

I was saving this for a rainy day, but with the cop struck down in the night, I can think of no situation that needs it more urgently. And I apologize in advance to Miss Kohaku for making her summon this up when she apparently is not feeling well.

##Skit: Activate

My suspicions, and rebuffing of Raven's inevitable accusations, will come later.

[[M] Felix]

I have to say, I'm surprised more people didn't vote for Lloyd, but what can you do? The evidence was there.


Rita;3663695']
I'm not very suspicious of Jade. I'm not sure what it is, maybe I'm just attracted to his mystique, who knows? From those four I'm most suspicious of Eizen as he has an active ability and he went to see Rowen night one. Although if Lloyd does turn out to be Mafia, would he have dropped his buddy Eizen in it with his Watcher story?

I'm actually particularly interested in Jade and Rowen right now. I wasn't really looking at Eizen too hard, but that's because I knew Lloyd was mafia.


Rita;3663698']...Hmm

##Unvote: Lloyd
##Vote: Raven

Man, you really just don't trust me, huh? Oh well. If I didn't think you were just stubborn, I'd think you were mafia just because you refuse to look at evidence. It's actually starting to make me keep an eye on you.


Raven;3663697']I would bet money on Jade being scum. I have what I need for 80% positive on him. He will be my vote the next day.

I'm very curious about what this information is.

[[M] Mom – Host]

Here is your skit Jade!


http://i.imgur.com/o1cS3Cz.jpg?1

Well now, this is an unfortunate turn of events. Does anyone have any information they'd like to share?

http://i.imgur.com/IObT9hr.jpg?1

I guess I could share some info.

http://i.imgur.com/IObT9hr.jpg?1

The cop we just lost? Yeah, he was our bulletproof townie.

http://i.imgur.com/SCzkoBp.jpg?1

Umm, I have some info to share too. Our lyncher is definitely after a town member, and our cop found the miller before he died.

http://i.imgur.com/zfltQOy.gif?1

This puts us in a pretty awkward situation. We have two mafia, two independents, and only four town left.

http://i.imgur.com/sgSHKjR.jpg?1

I wouldn't get too comfortable yet mafia scum. Someone in town definitely knows who one of you is.

[[M] Elize]

Gyah! Oh no! Leather Coat Dude with the scary scowl! Dead!

Is... that... bits of his brain on the floor?

No way this game has a teen rating anymore, Elize! We've stumbled into a darker and grittier sequel!

So hold on a moment. We need to steel ourselves for the days and nights to come, Teepo!

Let's think about it. Personally, I suspected Eizen was an investigative role, and having that known to the wider community meant that I thought he would be a target. Turns out, I was right. Eizen is the Cop.

Unfortunately, he didn't reveal to us anything when he was still alive. He mentioned something about "not having anything else to give", but that's not right, because several people asked questions of him, and he must have known he would've been vulnerable. It's sad that he didn't think it necessary to speak up. I was hoping for some interaction. *sigh*

What we do know though, is that Rowen is probably not a traitor. Eizen did investigate him, and did not speak up. That means Rowen was reported as innocent, and Eizen kept hidden. If Rowen was a traitor, then even with Eizen's inability to speak, he would have spoken up.

And I'm sceptical of Velvet being a traitor. Let's assume she is, and Lloyd was defending himself by saying Eizen and Velvet visited Rowen. I'd find it highly dubious for Lloyd to throw Velvet under the bus by saying she had a power role and visited Rowen. It isn't impossible, but why take that risk? He could've kept quiet and just mentioned Eizen's visitation.

It isn't as strong a confirmation as Rowen being non-traitor, but it does make me suspect Velvet is not a traitor also.

Hmm, Velvet isn't off my radar though Elize! If she acts super-suspicious, I'll be there to ferret out the answers from between her bazongas!

No, Teepo.

[[M] Trevor - Gay Dad]

We had a cop who started bulletproof? What a horrid twist of fate that led us to his death, then. If he could have been more active and open with us, we might be in a very different situation.

Even worse, we now have an equal balance of town and non-town players, and the lyncher is confirmed to be working to weaken the town. We need to root out the evils among us quickly; if there any more losses with nothing gained, the mafia is at an advantage.

I forgot to comment on this, but I am highly skeptical of Raven's claim that he has "80% of what he needs" to prove I'm evil. Even leaving aside his ridiculous insistence on this line of reasoning, claiming that he is gathering information directly contradicts his claim of being the Miller and having no night action. He should only be privy to the information open to everyone here. Reeks of Lyncher behavior to me. I await your surely pitiful argument in response, young man.

And Elize, I don't consider that evidence that Velvet is innocent. Throwing allies under the bus is a common enough mafia tactic, and Velvet was one of the earliest and strongest pushers of Mikleo being a traitor, an initially reasonable idea, but one that led to us lynching our Enabler and leaving our Cop vulnerable. I'm not sure whether he actually is or isn't on our side, but I cannot even slightly lower him on my suspects list.

Rowen, Elize, and Rita at least seem like safe townies. Not certain about Pascal or Anise, but I do not suspect them of illicit activities as much as I do Raven or Velvet.

[[M] Elize]

Lemme do some math. So with 4 Town, 2 Mafia, and 2 Independent persons... how does that affect our lose condition? Do the 2 Independent people count as Town for the purpose of Mafia controlling half the vote?

Kohaku, is that correct?

[[M] Mom – Host]

The independents do count as town as far as that goes. Basically mafia needs to surpass or equal non mafia to win.

And since Eizen died without using his skit, I'll let you guys in on a little secret. I never said this thread couldn't be used at night :3

[[M] Felix]

Jade;3663773']Rowen, Elize, and Rita at least seem like safe townies. Not certain about Pascal or Anise, but I do not suspect them of illicit activities as much as I do Raven or Velvet.

I don't like yes men that seem to engage in the conversation without actually giving anything. I have you pegged pretty hard for mafia right now. It was a two way tie between you and Rowen before Elize mentioned the Eizen investigation situation. It makes a fair amount of sense. It's not 100%, but it puts you in the lead.

So it's nice of you to put into words who you are and aren't suspicious of. It helps me decide who I should be looking at closer that might have been slipping under my radar. Especially since you put me in the group with her. My guess is you did the classic tactic of suggest one mafia, and one townie. Time to go back re-read Anise's posts really closely. Who Knows?

Maybe you didn't though, and since I'm already wondering why Rita refuses to see the writing on the wall sometimes, perhaps you're trying to pull attention off of her.

I'm still waiting to hear what Raven has to say about you. If I could know whether or not he was actually the miller it would do a lot towards giving his words strength.

[[M] Elize]

Jade;3663773']And Elize, I don't consider that evidence that Velvet is innocent. Throwing allies under the bus is a common enough mafia tactic, and Velvet was one of the earliest and strongest pushers of Mikleo being a traitor, an initially reasonable idea, but one that led to us lynching our Enabler and leaving our Cop vulnerable. I'm not sure whether he actually is or isn't on our side, but I cannot even slightly lower him on my suspects list.

Rowen, Elize, and Rita at least seem like safe townies. Not certain about Pascal or Anise, but I do not suspect them of illicit activities as much as I do Raven or Velvet.

Throwing Velvet under the bus makes no sense though. Velvet was in no danger of being lynched at that stage. You'd usually throw someone under a bus if they were going to be lynched anyway so you would look super helpful and nice by lynching a traitor.

But at that stage, it would be far more preferable for a traitor to throw Lloyd under the bus. His fate was effectively sealed with Colette's last damning verdict. Traitors only through other traitors under the bus when the writing is on the wall and they might as well salvage something from it by making themselves look non-traitor.

By my reasoning then, that would implicate Pascal as 'busser' in chief, but I find that unlikely, mainly because no traitor would actually put that much effort in bussing. It is enough to look agreeable and say "oh yeah, that person is super shady" and vote Lloyd. Why bother writing paragraphs of information? There's simply no need, and traitors tend to take the path of least resistance. Kinda like Occam's razor. Simplest solution is often the most likely. A very blunt tool, but I like to keep it in mind.

Which is why I think Velvet is leaning non-traitor in my view. To be sure, she could a traitor and Lloyd was including her in the visit list as part of some gambit whereby I think Velvet isn't a traitor because that's exactly what I would expect a traitor to not do and... see where I'm going with this? That's a lot of effort. If Lloyd left Velvet off the list, we wouldn't even be talking about Velvet's placement on the list and what it all means. At worst, the traitor team would be left with Velvet's actions up to that point, which were kinda nullish-town in my view. Why rock that boat?

I understand your point. I agree; Velvet is not confirmed innocent. Not by a long shot. But I do think Lloyd would not have put Velvet on that list were they partners: I just don't see the point, or the benefit.

Put another way: if I was a traitor with Velvet (as I was in a previous game), I wouldn't put Velvet on that list.

[[M] Elize]

Whew, I'm talking a lot today. I need to stop for air!

Haha! Buckle in kids, Teepo's taking over!

So I noticed in Jade's skit something of interest. It said Leather Coat Dude - may his soul rest in peace - found out who the miller was. There have been Three Nights so far, and assuming Eizen used all his investigations, that's three candidates. We have our tactician Rowen, and two unknowns. What's annoying is that Eizen didn't just lay it all out for us at the end of yesterday, that would've helped at least get some names. But it means Rowen has the potential - and only a potential - of being miller. The other two are unknown. Nothing can be done for now, but if a skit reveals some more information about this Eizen's investigations then it's good to get back to that.

The final piece of Jade's skit is damning for you cretinous traitorinos! I wish we knew who the person was who knows the identity of one of them. For the record - and I accept it is just the word of me, the infallible Teepo, it isn't me. I'm waiting on Raven's 80% proof thing.

Also: any idea where Anise got to? I'd value her input while I sock her puppet in the jaw, for I am the superior puppet! Mwahahaha! ULTIMATE POWER!!! *Thwack*

[[M] Felix]

This reasoning here,


Elize;3663777']
Throwing Velvet under the bus makes no sense though. Velvet was in no danger of being lynched at that stage. You'd usually throw someone under a bus if they were going to be lynched anyway so you would look super helpful and nice by lynching a traitor.

But at that stage, it would be far more preferable for a traitor to throw Lloyd under the bus. His fate was effectively sealed with Colette's last damning verdict. Traitors only through other traitors under the bus when the writing is on the wall and they might as well salvage something from it by making themselves look non-traitor.

By my reasoning then, that would implicate Pascal as 'busser' in chief, but I find that unlikely, mainly because no traitor would actually put that much effort in bussing. It is enough to look agreeable and say "oh yeah, that person is super shady" and vote Lloyd. Why bother writing paragraphs of information? There's simply no need, and traitors tend to take the path of least resistance. Kinda like Occam's razor. Simplest solution is often the most likely. A very blunt tool, but I like to keep it in mind.


is why it is a fine time to look at this stuff.


Jade;3663518']
Your cretinous slight against my scientific mind aside, child, you make a compelling argument. I don't want to jump into the voting immediately, and I may just use my skit for additional information if no one else decides to. But for now, Lloyd, would you care to make a role claim more helpful and specific than "of the investigative kind" and share any pertinent information you have with us? This is not the time for vagueness, and your answer could determine what I decide to do with you.


Jade;3663519']Ah, I see Pascal has poked a few more holes in Lloyd's argument whilst I was taking the time to declare my intentions. Never mind, then.

##Vote: Lloyd

Also, it's unlikely I'm any kind of "busser-in-chief" because I lead the charge on Lloyd before Colette's post, asked others to please look at my reasoning more closely after her post, and was the first to go after Lloyd again after Colette was offed.

A busser wouldn't lead the charge from that early on.

[[M] Elize]

I need to get Teepo stronger meds.

Also, I know I haven't mentioned this yet, but I am sorry for yesterday! Pascal mentioned people didn't vote for Lloyd as much, and that is partly my fault. I fully intended to vote Lloyd, but honestly I kinda forgot about time and thought we had more time to vote and then we didn't. I'm more than happy to take some suspicion points for that, and you only have my word, but I would've voted Lloyd, for the record.

I'm so sorry, everyone!

[[M] Elize]

I've avoided commenting on Jade directly since Day One, but once again I can't help but feel Jade has done little to change my mind on my initial scepticism.

Looking back from Day One, I first voted Jade because he voted for Rita really late on even though the general consensus was to not vote anymore for Rita, as enough pressure was on her to get talking. That he went against the general consensus seemed like scoring 'non-traitor points' in a calculated manner. That initially troubled me.

And on the No Lynch bandwagon, he seemed very happy to go with the flow. Granted, lots of people were doing that, but he seemed to lack any original ideas Day One.

Day Two and Day Three were really focused on Mikleo and Lloyd respectively, but I kept an eye on Jade throughout. No vote on him. Jade ends up voting for Mikleo, which I can't hold against him because honestly Day Two was a clustergumble and everyone fell into the Mikleo trap, me included.

In fact, pretty much the main thing I can sum up with Jade is 'parroter'. He just agrees with the majority opinion, all the time. There's also my skit which points to Jade as a potential traitor (he had yet to use his skit at that point). It puts him in the frame with circumstantial evidence.

[[M] Elize]

Correction: Jade has posted a total of 15 times. In the advanced search I only set the date back a week ago, not two weeks. Apologies! But still, 15 posts is not a whole heap.

Incidentally, Jade's first post of Day Two:


Jade;3663334']This just keeps getting more and more complex.

I'm not ready to cast a vote yet, but currently, I'm rather suspicious of Raven and Collette. The former has posted quite a bit without really saying much of substance, and Collette has barely posted at all. Both could be completely innocuous, of course, but both could also be potential suspects. And I may end up agreeing with Velvet about Mikleo's suspicious nature, but I need to chart out how all of this new information could possibly fit into our preconceptions before I make any rash judgements.

I don't wish to be mean to Jade, but looking through his previous four posts, there is nothing there that I can define as 'substance'. And four posts Day One is not a ton. Four posts Day Two is not a ton. Five posts Day Three. I generally expect people to post more as they live longer, simply because there's less people and there's more to talk about.

It's all... strange, in my opinion.

[[M] Elize]

Oh to hell with it Elize! I'm suspicious, you're suspicious, the kind postman down the road is suspicious. Let's just use our vote! Our vote is our voice!

[##VOTE: Jade]


GIANT TEEPO MIC DROP!

[[M] Trevor - Gay Dad]

You label me a "parroter", but the first thing you call me out on is going against the "general consensus," which as I recall consisted only of you and Rowen agreeing to unvote. Then I am called suspicious again for withdrawing when Rita presented herself, and hopping on a No Lynch "bandwagon" -- can you really call it that when I was the third person to vote and assumed I was the second, as I was composing my answer while Pascal was submitting hers? -- because I had no other leads and agreed with the initial reasoning presented.

And then, of course, you call me out for falling into a trap you fell into yourself, and then for voting for Lloyd when his time came up. Yet you'll note that I was the first one who directly called out Lloyd's role lie, and I used completely different evidence to Pascal's earlier post. I came up with my own logical argument to support my vote and laid it out clearly, and so far this has been ignored because it doesn't fit the preconception that I'm just going with the flow.

In short, I see nothing in the suspicions lobbed against me but confirmation bias.

[[M] Trevor - Gay Dad]

Elize;3663782']And four posts Day One is not a ton. Four posts Day Two is not a ton. Five posts Day Three. I generally expect people to post more as they live longer, simply because there's less people and there's more to talk about.

It's all... strange, in my opinion. [/COLOR][/B]

And now it's strange that I posted when time allowed me? I would think 4-5 posts a cycle, each of a fair length, would be acceptable for someone with a life. Come on, now.

[[M] Elize]

4-5 posts per day would be fine, were those posts particularly detailed, or insightful, or inquisitive. In my opinion, they have not.

About the general consensus: maybe a mis-step. You briefly skimmed the Day One action, saw a Rita bandwagon was pretty popular and then jumped on the bandwagon, not realising that I said in a comment that we shouldn't be piling more pressure on her. It still falls in line with my view of you - as someone not really invested in the game of catching traitors.

I mean, sure, maybe 'general consensus' is slightly overselling it, but the point was, Rita already had enough votes for suspicion over time (for inactivity). She didn't need more for the most trivial of vote reasons. That you continued implies laziness and a 'go with the flow attitude' which is, at best, counter-productive.

As for your observations on Lloyd:


Jade;3663533']The first skit confirms outright that Lloyd is lying. If the Watcher was informed of two Mafia visiting Colette that night, then he cannot have been prevented from carrying out his role, whether by being blocked or jailed. Lloyd, you naughty boy, your case isn't getting any less incriminating for you.

If that is the only unique, original idea you've had in four days action, then what kind of scientist are you?

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

At this point, it's all or nothing. I could save this up for later, but if we're not careful there might not be a later.

##Skit: Activate

[[M] Al - Biker Dad]

Jade killed Eizen last night.

##Vote: Jade

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Pascal;3663769']


Rita;3663698']...Hmm

##Unvote: Lloyd
##Vote: Raven

Man, you really just don't trust me, huh? Oh well. If I didn't think you were just stubborn, I'd think you were mafia just because you refuse to look at evidence. It's actually starting to make me keep an eye on you.


Gosh Pascal, and people say I'm the one with the ego? My decision had nothing to do with contradicting you - the Lloyd vote was all but locked down anyway - and everything to do with distrusting Raven. Let's take a look:


Raven']I would like to discuss as well the 4 who we know one (just not which one) is scum.

Eizen
Rowan
Jade
Velvet



Kouhaku']Let me crunch some number here.

Lloyd - 3 (Pascal, Jade, Velvet, Rita)
Raven - 1 (Rita)

The charming Lloyd who was a Mafia Roleblocker played but the very skilled Karifean!



Raven;3663697']I would bet money on Jade being scum. I have what I need for 80% positive on him. He will be my vote the next day.

- If Raven is a Miller with no active role, what 'information' does he have to make him "80% sure" of Jade's guilt?
- This was AFTER Jade voted to lynch Lloyd, who was confirmed to be a Mafia roleblocker.
- Raven, although going along with us in the conversation... did not vote to lynch Lloyd.

So, the guy who didn't vote for the Mafia member when we were all pretty certain he was Mafia (and indeed turned out to be) is somehow, despite having no special ability, 80% confident that Jade is a) mafia and b) voted to lynch his own comrade.

It's not that I don't trust you Pascal, it's that I sure as heck don't trust Raven.

[[M] Mom – Host]

Here is your skit, Rowen!


http://i.imgur.com/hyPYCOt.png?1

Does anyone else have any more information they can share? With most of our power roles gone, lynching is the only tool we have left.

http://i.imgur.com/q8sQet2.jpg

Let's go over the roles we have left. We know we have a tracker and a watcher.

http://i.imgur.com/Pqfc02f.jpg?1

I can tell you that the watcher is town, but the tracker is mafia.

http://i.imgur.com/q8sQet2.jpg

That's helpful. And the Godfather is still in play as far as mafia goes.

http://i.imgur.com/hyPYCOt.png?1

As for town, we still have the ascetic and the supersaint, so we again need to be careful who we lynch. The miller is our other townie, which apparently our cop discovered but did not report.

http://i.imgur.com/UlODdI5.png?1

Maybe he didn't report it because he discovered it the night he died. In any case, he doesn't seem to have voted for the miller at any point, that might help us out.

http://i.imgur.com/hyPYCOt.png?1

And aside from that, the only two left... are our independents. This is going to be a tough road indeed. Our only strength now is our superior numbers.

[[M] Elize]

That skit is positively jam-packed with information. Let's take the time to pick it apart because it reviews much about the roles we have left remaining, and also the possible identity of Eizen's final investigation target.

I'll do this tomorrow. I feel as if I've talked too much today and I'd like to get other perspectives involved. I still wish to hear from Anise, and also Rowen, who activated his Skit but has yet to make a significant impact in my view.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

The miller is our other townie, which apparently our cop discovered but did not report.

The Miller is defined as a townie in their role:


Miller - This player is a townie who will investigate as Mafia to the cop.

So in actual fact, Eizen wouldn't have known about his discovery at all, he would've just seen someone as mafia. But this skit tells us that he found the Miller; whoever Eizen targeted is the Miller. If we have any way to know his actions that I've overlooked, please help me out with that.

For now though, I'm putting my vote where I stand at this moment. Given the suspicions I've outlined above, and I don't think I've seen anything that contradicts my conclusion...

##Vote: Raven

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Velvet;3663790']Jade killed Eizen last night.

##Vote: Jade

Just a quick question, oh great Lord of Calamity: how do you know that?

[[M] Aaron]

Sorry I am still at work as it's been a long day and I am on overtime. I will start by saying "I" being me am positive on Jade being scum. Yes I am the Miller with no night power so I read the person in thread. I put it at 80% because there is always the thought in the back of my mind that I could be wrong. As the puppet lady kindly pointed out what I have said since the beginning on Jade but was told it was wishy washy bye who??? Jade. It could be our good Cop decided to check on me last night due to me saying straight out I was 80% sure on Jade. It was you guys saying I had a power Role, I never did. I just said I was 80% sure Jade was mafia. Now I am 95% sure.

##Vote: Jade

[[M] Aaron]

I also think I figured out who the lyncher is off of Jades Skit. However he counts towards town so I will let it lie for now.

[[M] Felix]

- If Raven is a Miller with no active role, what 'information' does he have to make him "80% sure" of Jade's guilt?
- This was AFTER Jade voted to lynch Lloyd, who was confirmed to be a Mafia roleblocker.
- Raven, although going along with us in the conversation... did not vote to lynch Lloyd.

So, the guy who didn't vote for the Mafia member when we were all pretty certain he was Mafia (and indeed turned out to be) is somehow, despite having no special ability, 80% confident that Jade is a) mafia and b) voted to lynch his own comrade.

It's not that I don't trust you Pascal, it's that I sure as heck don't trust Raven.

Okay, you have some a decent observation, and I agree that Raven's post isn't exactly hard evidence. However, using the argument that not voting for Lloyd makes him suspicious isn't very strong. Barely any of you did, even with very strong evidence.

Heck, one of the people who did is still on my mafia list. A little while ago, I had a list of Jade, Raven, and Rowen.

I think I can safely remove Rowen for now, but that still leaves Jade, Raven, and maybe you and Anise. I still think you're just stubborn, but I'm not happy with Anise conveniently being out of the conversation again.

As far as the skit, we now know that Ascethic is indeed a town role, so tracker would have shown up during an investigation if they were mafia.

Also, I went back through the thread, and Eizen only ever voted for Velvet that I can see. Someone feel free to go back and double check, I could have missed it. Anyway, if that's correct then Velvet is not our Miller.

[[M] Aaron]

I am the Miller. So far there has been 0 counter claims to that because I am.

[[M] Trevor - Gay Dad]

##Vote: Velvet

Seems inevitable that you peasants are going to lynch me on no more suspicion than the openly baseless claims of the presumed Miller, my relative inactivity, and my apparent tendency to follow what turns out to be the popular opinion (even if I make my posts before it becomes the popular opinion), but I thought I should draw more attention to a vote presented with no evidence and not even the weakest scrap of an argument.

It will go entirely undiscussed and ignored, I know, but I felt I should at least cast a vote for posterity.

[[M] Elize]

Jade;3663820']##Vote: Velvet

Seems inevitable that you peasants are going to lynch me on no more suspicion than the openly baseless claims of the presumed Miller, my relative inactivity, and my apparent tendency to follow what turns out to be the popular opinion (even if I make my posts before it becomes the popular opinion), but I thought I should draw more attention to a vote presented with no evidence and not even the weakest scrap of an argument.

It will go entirely undiscussed and ignored, I know, but I felt I should at least cast a vote for posterity.

You know, I wish you wouldn't keep inflating the value of the fifteen or so posts you've made. Of the posts you've made before my vote on you, I could find only one that could be seen as 'preemptive' or 'taking the initiative'. Virtually every other post is either flavor-posting or agreeing with someone else.

To clarify: agreeing with another statement is fine. Healthy, even. But almost all of your posts have been of that nature, so please don't say you make your posts before it becomes popular opinion, because it really hasn't according to my post analysis.

...

Despite this, I am a little uneasy with the reasons both Velvet and Raven have given. Velvet seems very adamant about your guilt, but gives no evidence. I am dubious, to say the least. I could surmise - perhaps - that Velvet is either a tracker or watcher, and saw you perform an action on Eizen during the night. That's what I'm guessing, though I admit some discomfort.

As for Raven, the man is as slippery as you. His vote post on you Jade is kinda hard to read and gives nothing away.

I also hate the sensation that I'm being taken advantage of. I vote Jade, then suddenly two people with barely comprehensible reasons vote Jade also? Ehhhhhh. I hate a lack of clarity. Non-traitors should do their best to lay out exactly who they are voting for, and for what reason, unless they have such an important power role that some degree of anonymity needs to be afforded, but even so.

On the smaller topic of the Miller, I do find it interesting that there has been no counter-claim against Raven's Miller claim. We know there is a Miller in play, so it isn't as if he could safely fake-claim that.

I will directly ask then:

- Velvet, what is your reason for being 100% certain that Jade is a traitor?

- Raven, what is your reason for being 80% certain that Jade is a traitor?

Lastly,

- Anise, you've been very quiet so far today. Please speak up.

[[M] Aaron]

I will say that I said yesterday that I am voting Jade today. You and velvet just beet me to it.

I am positive Jade is scum. Everything she has done so far has checked off on my boxes of watch out. Jade has done nothing all game, just pointed a finger. Since her misvote on Rita day one I knew Jade was scum. She has just browsed the thread, placed a vote, then bolted. Her post would have been even less if I haven't been all over him since day one.

Most of Jades posts have been:

"Raven and Velvet are scum"

Now I have yet to have anyone give me any evidence that I am scum. I have played an aggressive style and maybe rubbed some people wrong, but I chose to try and share everything, and hunt for scum all game.

Everything I said can be backed up within the thread if people just look at my posts.

[[M] Mom – Host]

Raven, bro, Jade is a man.

Also Anise is absent because she is sicky, just to let everyone know!

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Okay, you have some a decent observation, and I agree that Raven's post isn't exactly hard evidence. However, using the argument that not voting for Lloyd makes him suspicious isn't very strong. Barely any of you did, even with very strong evidence.

No, but that he's so confident in Jade, even though he did vote for Lloyd, adds to that suspicion. Now, of course a mafia can vote for another mafia - it's a good way to seem less suspicious. However, it's also highly risky. As I decided to change my vote to Raven, the vote was 3-1. Had Jade voted Raven, it could have been 2-2. So Jade voting Lloyd does work in his favour in my view.


I am the Miller. So far there has been 0 counter claims to that because I am.


On the smaller topic of the Miller, I do find it interesting that there has been no counter-claim against Raven's Miller claim. We know there is a Miller in play, so it isn't as if he could safely fake-claim that.

Not so fast there. There are more reasons not to counter-claim Miller than "Raven is telling the truth". For example, let's say, hypothetically, that I was the Miller. I would currently know, without any doubt, that Raven is lying. So he would probably be Mafia or Independent.

There are 8 players remaining. That means, with no other information, the odds of another town voting to lynch me are 1 in 7 (per townie).
However, if I counter-claim Miller, then town knows that EITHER Raven or I are lying, and most likely mafia. My odds of being voted are now closer to 1 in 2 (per townie).

So if I were the real Miller, I would think twice before counter-claiming if I could get away with not doing so.

[[M] Felix]

Lil Sis;3663839']
Okay, you have some a decent observation, and I agree that Raven's post isn't exactly hard evidence. However, using the argument that not voting for Lloyd makes him suspicious isn't very strong. Barely any of you did, even with very strong evidence.

No, but that he's so confident in Jade, even though he did vote for Lloyd, adds to that suspicion. Now, of course a mafia can vote for another mafia - it's a good way to seem less suspicious. However, it's also highly risky. As I decided to change my vote to Raven, the vote was 3-1. Had Jade voted Raven, it could have been 2-2. So Jade voting Lloyd does work in his favour in my view.

I'm still very suspicious of Jade even though I led the (correct) charge on Lloyd, so that doesn't really mean much to me. Despite what he says about coming up with his own reasoning first, you can go back and check through the thread. I submitted my reasoning first, Jade responded to it and said "Hmmm, this doesn't look good.", and then when I caught Lloyd in a lie he finally agreed Lloyd was mafia. Raven did the exact same thing, actually. Heck, that's the thing. Most of you went "Well that doesn't look good for Lloyd." and then sat on your votes for 2-days. It was weird. So all that suspicion you have on Raven for not voting applies to everyone else.

If anything, Jade might be the odd man out for getting on my vote train so early. I'm thinking that as mafia he could see what was coming and wisely chose to distance himself from Lloyd before it looked too suspicious that he defended him.




I am the Miller. So far there has been 0 counter claims to that because I am.


On the smaller topic of the Miller, I do find it interesting that there has been no counter-claim against Raven's Miller claim. We know there is a Miller in play, so it isn't as if he could safely fake-claim that.

Not so fast there. There are more reasons not to counter-claim Miller than "Raven is telling the truth". For example, let's say, hypothetically, that I was the Miller. I would currently know, without any doubt, that Raven is lying. So he would probably be Mafia or Independent.

There are 8 players remaining. That means, with no other information, the odds of another town voting to lynch me are 1 in 7 (per townie).
However, if I counter-claim Miller, then town knows that EITHER Raven or I are lying, and most likely mafia. My odds of being voted are now closer to 1 in 2 (per townie).

So if I were the real Miller, I would think twice before counter-claiming if I could get away with not doing so.

This is reasoning I agree with, and why I'm also not surprised no one has counter-claimed. Beyond that though, it's making me think Raven actually is the miller. He claimed before Eizen was dead, and I think he was hoping for a long shot confirmation that he at least shows up as mafia. Something like this.


So either Raven is telling the truth or he's mafia. We can pretty much rule out him being the Lyncher or the Survivor at this point, as if a cop investigated him and he showed up as 'other' instead of mafia then he'd be signing his own death warrant. Given the timing of the claim, my hypothesis would be that Raven is not the Miller, but a Watcher, and he passed the information on to Lloyd. But there's no proof of that, just a hunch.

Now he's screwed. Because that final line says it all. Hunches. My gut says Jade, yours says Raven, and I respect that. Still, I've been more suspicious of Jade this whole time.

[Vote##: Jade]

P.S. No offense, buddy, but your hunches have been off this whole game. It's one reason why I'm still looking at you as potentially the last mafia. If you're not mafia, go back and look at your hunch record. It's not so good.

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

Elize;3663823']
- Velvet, what is your reason for being 100% certain that Jade is a traitor?

This is the same issue I have brought up in the past. We're beyond the point where you can keep silent on this matter, Velvet. Please explain yourself, or I will be forced to assume that you are mafia.

[[M] Anise]

Sorry for being absent. Been dealing with a terrible illness.

Trying to recap on everything.

Jade is suspicious as you've all mentioned so I wont go too much further atm until I read more.

I'm still not keen on the Miller claim. Without Eizen around anymore, how do we confirm that? I mean I just feel they knew there was a cop and claiming miller would have been safe if they saw themselves targeted. People had mentioned and the skit that there's some investigatory role on the mafia. It's how lloyd knew stuff right? Miller would be the safest claim if they knew they had been targetted.

I'll have to review more of the thread. Once again, terribly sorry I haven't been active. I've been pretty much dying and enjoying the comfort of my bed the past few days. I'll try to be more active now though.

[[M] Al - Biker Dad]

I'm the Watcher, btw.

I watched Eizen last night and Jade was the only one who targeted him.

Lock him up!

[[M] Al - Biker Dad]

I also targeted Lloyd in Night 2.

He was targeted by Colette and Pascal.

[[M] Al - Biker Dad]

Lastly, I watched Jade on Night 1. No one targeted him.

Thanks for trusting me on the lynch yesterday. I stated Lloyd was scum and intentionally laid low in hopes that the mafia wouldn't immediately assume I was a cop or a watcher. I didn't want to give them any leverage or any grounds to night kill me.

I went for a person I thought was going to get killed (Eizen), and sure enough his death lead me to the scum (Jade).

[[M] Mom – Host]

HALFTIME

A majority vote can happen after this point. 5 votes are needed for a majority lynch. You have 24 hours left before the night phase.

Votes so far:
Jade - 4 (Elize, Velvet, Raven, Pascal)
Raven - 1 (Rita)
Velvet - 1 (Jade)

[[M] Felix]

Velvet;3663857']I also targeted Lloyd in Night 2.

He was targeted by Colette and Pascal.

Sigh

This adds up pretty well. I am the survivor/bodyguard. I thought it would be nice to try and help town since mafia always wins these things.

I wasn't ready for a reveal because town will look at me as a baddy even though I'm Pascal, and wouldn't throw town under the bus like that. I was hoping to get two confirmed mafia under my belt so you'd all believe me.

When I couldn't get town to vote Lloyd, I put my money where my mouth is. I figured since it was glaringly clear he was mafia to me, then obviously guarding him was safe for me since they wouldn't night kill their own.

Last night I guarded Rowen because I wasn't sure between Jade and Rowen who was mafia. I literally flipped a coin to choose.

I plan to guard Jade tonight if he somehow doesn't get lynched.

If he does get lynched then I have to roll the dice on who I'm guarding. I want to help town out, but I don't wanna die in the process. ^^;

Looks like Velvet is our watcher, which adds up with Eizen's vote not being against the miller.

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

Kohaku, I do not believe that I have yet voted. Perhaps you meant that Raven has voted for Jade?

[[M] Mom – Host]

Yes I apologize. It is fixed and thank you for letting me know!

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

Pascal;3663872'] I plan to guard Jade tonight if he somehow doesn't get lynched.

Can I ask you to explain why you wish to guard Jade, particularly as a number of people believe that he is mafia?

[[M] Felix]

Rowen;3663878']
Pascal;3663872'] I plan to guard Jade tonight if he somehow doesn't get lynched.

Can I ask you to explain why you wish to guard Jade, particularly as a number of people believe that he is mafia?

I means what it says. Read the rest of my post again.

Just like I did with Lloyd, I'm trying to help out town but I don't want to die. If I see mafia, I'm calling them out because I'm trying to help town. If town doesn't vote to lynch them, and I think they're still mafia, then I protect them during the night because I know they won't get targeted for a night kill and I'll be safe. Make sense?

EDIT: Here, I pulled out the specific part again.


When I couldn't get town to vote Lloyd, I put my money where my mouth is. I figured since it was glaringly clear he was mafia to me, then obviously guarding him was safe for me since they wouldn't night kill their own.

[[M] Elize]

Basically Rowen (assuming Pascal is telling the truth: given her helpfulness so far, I am currently inclined to believe her):

Pascal is a bodyguard. If whoever she chooses to protect is targeted by a night kill, she will take that hit for them. Complicating matters is that Pascal is also the Survivor, so rather ironically, it is in her best interest to choose targets that are unlikely to be night-killed. As you can imagine, traitors would not night-kill each other, so they are prime, safe targets.

With the current consensus (and I know I've used that word freely before, but the majority is clear in this case) that Jade is most likely to be Mafia, Jade is a safe target. Assuming Jade is lynched today, then a choice of target is less certain.

[[M] Anise]

If Pascal is the Survivor, when the town "wins" does this mean really Pascal wins over the town? So the town... loses? Is that how that works?

[[M] Elize]

Anise;3663894']If Pascal is the Survivor, when the town "wins" does this mean really Pascal wins over the town? So the town... loses? Is that how that works?

How I understand it Anise, a third-party wins with whatever main faction wins. So if we win and Pascal survives, we are joint-winners, as we have both fulfilled our win conditions.

Pascal surviving does not mean the non-traitors or traitors lose.

[[M] Felix]

Yup yup!

As a survivor my only goal is to survive until the end, my survival doesn't actually impede town or mafia necessarily. It also wouldn't prevent them from also winning.

However, I'm also a bodyguard, so I have to pick someone to protect every night. Normally a bodyguard is town, so even if they die, if town wins they win.

I'm a free agent though. So the best way I can help town is by sniffing out scum while actually guarding who I think is scum at night. I don't mind hunting scum with town, but I need to live until the end to win so I won't be guarding your cops or your doctors (as should already be obvious). I'm pulling for town, but I don't wanna die.

Since I'm buying what Velvet is selling in regards to Jade being the only person to target Eizen night 2, I have absolutely no doubts any longer that he is mafia. My vote will remain the same. Now I just have to hope I get lucky on who I pick to be the next most likely mafia member, and that's getting tough. :ohdear:

[[M] Aaron]

My question for Pascal is When Jade flips Mafia, would that not finally show I am Town, and the Miller? I have called out Jade since day one for being scum.

[[M] Anise]

Getting lucky and managing to put suspicion on an actual mafia from day one doesn't make you town. In fact pointing their way just gives you background to TRY to seem more townie. I'm still not buying the miller claim. Sorry, Raven.

[[M] Felix]

Raven;3663907']My question for Pascal is When Jade flips Mafia, would that not finally show I am Town, and the Miller? I have called out Jade since day one for being scum.

Not really, no. Everything Rita has said about what makes you suspicious still makes you suspicious. You had no strong reasoning to suspect Jade early on, and even after you claims of "80% sure with proof" just turned out to be "I really get a bad feeling about that fella." Which isn't strong proof.

The thing is, we've both had the same hunch about Jade for a while now with no strong reasoning. I admitted it was only a hunch I had earlier, too. That's all it was until Velvet finally provided hard proof for me of Jade's scummy actions. She's most likely the tracker, and she proved that he's most likely mafia Godfather.

Even though this wouldn't make you much less suspicious in my eyes, I don't find you super suspicious to begin with. Rita is the one who does. I already said I think you were taking a risk on admitting to miller and hoping the cop could investigate you, but the cop got killed.

Right now I do think you're probably a miller, but it's not proven and will be hard to prove. Which leaves a mafia and lyncher. I have my thoughts on both, but that's where I'm leaving it for now.

[[M] Aaron]

Since the lyncher is technically a townie I put it aside too. I have a good idea who it is though. As for the last mafia??? I have thoughts.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Right, I don't think there's anything I can further add to convince you of my Raven hypothesis. Well, there is one thing, but I think it's important to take care of the Jade situation before turning to that. If I survive the night then... well, tomorrow's going to be an interesting day.

##Unvote: Raven
##Vote: Jade

[[M] Mom – Host]

A majority lockdown has occurred! Let's check out the votes!

Jade - 5 (Elize, Velvet, Raven, Pascal, Rita)
Raven - 0 (Rita)
Velvet - 1 (Jade)

Town has spoken, and the new lynchee is none other than...


http://i.imgur.com/bUQg7rK.png

The brilliant and sarcastic Jade, who was the Mafia Godfather, played by our new forum friend KleinerKiller!

Night Four

You have 24 hours to submit to me your night actions!

[[M] Mom – Host]

It seems that there was another casualty in the night. Tonight's victim was...


http://i.imgur.com/U7KtW30.png

Our leading lady, Velvet, the Town Watcher, played by the ever skilled Scruffington!

It seems that town is out of power roles. Now all you have are your superior numbers.


DAY FIVE

You have 48 hours. Halftime starts at 24, when a majority lynch can happen. 4 votes are needed for a majority lynch. Happy hunting!

[[M] Felix]

No big surprise they went after the last power role.

Okay, if you have theories on who you don't like and why, let's hear 'em!

I don't know if anyone else is thinking this, but I'm starting to view Rita as the possible lyncher. I don't know if she's mafia, but she seems to have a laser focus on Raven right now, and has for a while at the expense of not voting for obvious mafia just to suggest Raven. She has decent reasoning, but as more time goes by, the less chance there is that he's anything but a miller.

As for mafia, I have suspicion that's really all. Any other ideas or thoughts?

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

This game has really gotten away from me, to be honest. I'm totally lost.

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

Bit of a shot in the dark, but here goes.

##Vote: Raven

They just seem shady. Convince me they're not mafia, and I'll change my vote.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Aw man, I kinda liked Velvet T_T


She has decent reasoning, but as more time goes by, the less chance there is that he's anything but a miller.

Yeah, about that... now that we're down to the last mafia I think it's time for me to tell you that the miller, in fact, is me.

So that's why I've been focusing on Raven. He is our final mafia. So, I'm sure you have questions; ask away, I'll do my best to answer. For now though, my vote should be fairly obvious.

##Vote: Raven

[[M] Anise]

Two Miller claims? Someone is lying.

Raven said he was miller very early on but Eizen (cop) was murdered before they could confirm or deny that Raven was investigated. I have been wondering why they would have claimed so early with that role unless they knew they were targeted.

But then Rita's now miller claim is a bit out there because.. why not mention that before and call out the mafia player? Fishy.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Anise;3664063']Two Miller claims? Someone is lying.

Raven said he was miller very early on but Eizen (cop) was murdered before they could confirm or deny that Raven was investigated. I have been wondering why they would have claimed so early with that role unless they knew they were targeted.

But then Rita's now miller claim is a bit out there because.. why not mention that before and call out the mafia player? Fishy.

As a matter of fact it was very deliberate, and there's two main reasons why; first, announcing yourself as the Miller makes you a target for the mafia, and second, I would be taking a big risk that people would believe Raven instead of me.

With so many mafia around, it was safer to remain unknown and play along until I could call him out at a safer time, which is now. The two most likely outcomes of me counter-claiming Miller now are: 1) Raven dies, 2) I die.

Had I counter claimed immediately, I would have risked death, and then if I had survived I would have risked being killed that night. After all, the mafia would know that I'm not mafia, so they would know that I'm town rather than an independent, and I'd be a nice easy target whenever it was convenient for them to kill me. On that note, do please notice how Raven has survived since his claim, despite being the only person who the mafia could be certain was town (if he is telling the truth).

Now, however, I either die or we win the game. I think this was the only reasonable time for me to counter claim.

[[M] Anise]

If you claimed miller then that makes you more of just a townie who could be seen as a mafia person. They'd want to keep you before killing the cop to throw people off, right? You'd be an asset not a target? The mafia would be going off those bigger power roles, a miller wouldn't be much of an issue I wouldn't think. Like what is your power, you come up as one of them. They already know you're not mafia. I wouldn't think going for an independent would be that big of deal either when we have such a role heavy game.

I am agreeing with Pascal here in thinking, you're the lyncher. Raven is the Lynchee.

##Vote: Rita

[[M] Anise]

Finding the other Mafia is of course a priority, but if you get this lynch off, everyone loses and you're the winner. I'd rather win as a group than lose to just one person.

[[M] Felix]

I actually agree with Anise's reasoning on why mafia wouldn't bother with killing off the miller. Miller is a vanilla townie with bad luck, and mafia never kills vanillas when they can get rid of power roles first. Why do you think they killed Velvet? Velvet can watch people, and who ever is mafia doesn't want people watching them.

I'm pretty confident that Rita is lyncher, so the only way they win is to kill off their target. Since that target is town and we need town, I don't see the harm in letting her hang around as long as we don't fall for her tricks and vote Raven. That loses us a townie.

My focus is on who is actually mafia. We have Anise, Rowen, and Elize left and I think it's time to hear some role claims.

EDIT: In fact, I can't believe I hadn't thought of this first, it's the perfect time for the lyncher to come out as the miller because there's not other power roles left. Now Raven has a good chance of getting killed off because the other townie roles are just as passive. If mafia kills off Raven before the lyncher does, it's game over for them.

This might be a final push to win the game as lyncher for Rita before mafia takes away that chance.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Had I counter claimed immediately, I would have risked death, and then if I had survived I would have risked being killed that night. After all, the mafia would know that I'm not mafia, so they would know that I'm town rather than an independent, and I'd be a nice easy target whenever it was convenient for them to kill me.

I feel like I should clarify this part. Reading it back there's a logical step that I haven't explained.

One of the factors that made me want to hold off on counter-claiming straight away was the possible presence of the Cop. I can't remember if we'd confirmed a cop at the point Raven made his claim or if it were merely a possibility. Anyway, if you suspect a cop is in play you basically confirm that you aren't an independent. I pointed this fact out myself when Raven made his claim:


So either Raven is telling the truth or he's mafia. We can pretty much rule out him being the Lyncher or the Survivor at this point, as if a cop investigated him and he showed up as 'other' instead of mafia then he'd be signing his own death warrant.

Basically, when there's a cop in play you only claim miller when you know you're going to investigate as 'mafia'. Which means claiming Miller with a cop around makes you either town or mafia. From a town perspective... you could be lying. So that makes you 50% mafia or 50% town. Mafia, however, know that you aren't mafia. Which makes you 100% town, and reduces the risk that they'll waste a night kill on an independent.

[[M] Anise]

Pascal;3664069']I actually agree with Anise's reasoning on why mafia wouldn't bother with killing off the miller. Miller is a vanilla townie with bad luck, and mafia never kills vanillas when they can get rid of power roles first. Why do you think they killed Velvet? Velvet can watch people, and who ever is mafia doesn't want people watching them.

I'm pretty confident that Rita is lyncher, so the only way they win is to kill off their target. Since that target is town and we need town, I don't see the harm in letting her hang around as long as we don't fall for her tricks and vote Raven. That loses us a townie.

My focus is on who is actually mafia. We have Anise, Rowen, and Elize left and I think it's time to hear some role claims.


Ahh you're probably right about this. I mean as long as we don't lynch Raven than Rita can't win? But we'd still have more so the majority doesn't dwindle for that last mafioso to win.

##Unvote: Rita

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Anise;3664065']Like what is your power, you come up as one of them.


Pascal"]
Miller is a vanilla townie with bad luck


Miller is a passive role. We already know that people can have two roles - being the miller doesn't automatically mean you have no night power, Raven just claimed he didn't.

Pascal, for someone who claims to be on my level I'm disappointed that you're so quick to stick to your preconceptions. You'd made up your mind I was the lyncher before I'd even told you that I'm the miller. Whatever happened to examining the evidence?


EDIT: In fact, I can't believe I hadn't thought of this first, it's the perfect time for the lyncher to come out as the miller because there's not other power roles left

Yes, although I had alluded to the fact that I was going to reveal my role if I survived last night, before the Watcher was killed:


Right, I don't think there's anything I can further add to convince you of my Raven hypothesis. Well, there is one thing, but I think it's important to take care of the Jade situation before turning to that. If I survive the night then... well, tomorrow's going to be an interesting day.

[[M] Aaron]

##Vote: Rita an easy claim earlier would have sent me packing rather easily. I am the Miller and we just found the last scum.

[[M] Aaron]

Though I must say I had Rita as the Lyncher.

[[M] Aaron]

Also if town lies isn't it considered a self lynch? Maybe we should ask our lovely host.

[[M] Mom – Host]

Not sure what you mean about it being a self lynch but there are no rules against lying

[[M] Elize]

Anise, what is your role-claim?

[[M] Aaron]

Reading through it is very obvious Rita is the Lyncher. Lynch me and she wins.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Raven;3664091']Reading through it is very obvious Rita is the Lyncher. Lynch me and she wins.

Yeah, I've been suspicious of you ever since you 'revealed' yourself to have my role! Funny how that works, huh?

I gotta say your strategy of 'agree with Pascal whatever she says' is working well so far, she is very trusting of anyone who goes along with her.

[[M] Felix]

Rita;3664073']

Pascal"]
Miller is a vanilla townie with bad luck


Miller is a passive role. We already know that people can have two roles - being the miller doesn't automatically mean you have no night power, Raven just claimed he didn't.

Pascal, for someone who claims to be on my level I'm disappointed that you're so quick to stick to your preconceptions. You'd made up your mind I was the lyncher before I'd even told you that I'm the miller. Whatever happened to examining the evidence?

My apologies Lil Sis! Let's compare some evidence, scientist to scientist! Time to get on your level! Miss Kohaku said at the beginning that only some of those roles would be present on the list she represented. She also said EVERYONE had a role to start with. Here's the ones we already know about through role claim or people getting killed.

Bodyguard - Will protect someone else from night kills at the expense of their own life. Cannot be night killed if targeted directly.
Lyncher - Will be assigned a player they need to convince other players to lynch. If they succeed they win no matter which faction wins, but if their target is night killed or lynched without them also voting to lynch that person, they become a vanilla townie.
Roleblocker - Blocks a person's ability and/or role at night.
Jailkeeper - Prevents a person from being night killed but also prevents them from using their role or ability.
Survivor - Must survive until the end of the game to win. They win with either faction.
Watcher - They will be informed of the name of the player(s) of anyone who targets their chosen player during the night.
Tracker - They will be told the name of the player that their chosen player targets during the night.
Doctor - They will protect another player from a night kill.
Cop - This player can select another player at night and will be told whether they are town, mafia, or other.
Supersaint - If this player is killed, they will also kill the player whom cast the last vote on them.
Miller - This player is a townie who will investigate as Mafia to the cop.
Ascetic - This player is immune to all night actions EXCEPT for night kills.
Bulletproof - This player cannot be night killed.
Enabler - If this player is killed, another player will lose an ability or role.
Godfather - This player is mafia that will investigate as Town to the cop.

Okay, so that leaves us with a tracker, miller, ascetic, lyncher, and possibly a supersaint. AFAIK, supersaint is the only one to have not been confirmed as a possible role through any skit, so it might not even be in play. The others are. So 4 to possibly 5 roles left.

Now, we have one mafia, two independents, and 3 town left. I'm a bodyguard/survivor, so that's 5 people when I'm not included.

We know thanks to skits that the mafia is the tracker.

Obviously town is not a lyncher.

That leaves ascetic, miller, and (maybe) supersaint for the three town left. Since everyone started off with a role, there's not enough roles left for someone to have more than one, besides me.

So one person is miller, one is tracker, one is lyncher, etc. If you're going to get on my level, you need to have better math, Lil Sis. ;)


EDIT: In fact, I can't believe I hadn't thought of this first, it's the perfect time for the lyncher to come out as the miller because there's not other power roles left


Yes, although I had alluded to the fact that I was going to reveal my role if I survived last night, before the Watcher was killed:


Right, I don't think there's anything I can further add to convince you of my Raven hypothesis. Well, there is one thing, but I think it's important to take care of the Jade situation before turning to that. If I survive the night then... well, tomorrow's going to be an interesting day.

That's an easy thing for someone to say so that it looks good the next day. It's preparing for your final charge against Raven. You'd need actions to back it up, and right now the only actions I've seen from you are denying obvious mafia to focus on Raven. It's like you have a target, and it's painfully obvious.

It's obvious to me you're lyncher so I'm not even concerned with you, though. I'm just encouraging everyone else not to fall for you tricks and waste a night lynching their own team.

I'd still like to see a role claim from Anise, Elize, and Rowen.

[[M] Felix]

I just realized this scientist can't do math either! :lol:

If everyone started off with at least one role, then supersaint has to be in play, because that's the only way everyone left has at least one role. (Duh!)

Doesn't change much, basically everyone left other than me has one role left.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Pascal;3664126']
So one person is miller, one is tracker, one is lyncher, etc. If you're going to get on my level, you need to have better math, Lil Sis. ;)

This is only known now due to skits and deaths. When I was explaining why it would be incredibly dumb for the actual miller to claim whilst there was a cop in play, a lot of these were still up in the air. So your conclusion that it would be advantageous for mafia to keep the miller alive 'because he is a vanilla townie' could not have been known by them at the time. It was entirely possible that he had an additional skill.


It's preparing for your final charge against Raven. You'd need actions to back it up, and right now the only actions I've seen from you are denying obvious mafia to focus on Raven.

I didn't deny obvious mafia! I totally agreed that Lloyd and Jade were shady as hell - I voted to lynch Jade and fully supported taking out Lloyd.


It's like you have a target, and it's painfully obvious.

And you don't think when someone fake claims my role so I'm certain they're mafia... that wouldn't make them a target? Remember that from the second he said he was the miller I've known this. Lloyd and Jade - however likely they seemed - were always a lower probability to me.



It's obvious to me you're lyncher so I'm not even concerned with you, though. I'm just encouraging everyone else not to fall for you tricks and waste a night lynching their own team.


You know, if you weren't such a dumb jerk you'd realise that if you don't believe me, then the smart thing is to target me.

- If I'm Mafia, town wins.
- If I'm the Lyncher, Raven is (mostly) proved innocent, he's eliminated as a suspect.
- If I'm Town, everyone knows to kill Raven next time out.

[[M] Aaron]

There are huge holes in your claim Rita, first you don't even understand how the role works. As town you want the cop to know without giving up who the cop might be to Mafia so for his read on you. A early claim is good for the Miller as it shows a 0 power role to Mafia and they will leave you alone.

Second if people read through all your posts it is painfully obvious you are the Lyncher. A one track mind on one person. Also you weren't all in on the Lloyd vote either. You didn't just go with the whole town as we were wondering if Collete's story was just a Mafia move or not. We know Colette was telling the truth now, but it was a little fuzzy at the time.

Third you see this as your last chance to gain the win. If the Lyncher was out there now would be the time to strike as all roles are claimed except, Lyncher aka Rita and the Mafia goon that if we were all to vote for as we know who it is it would be a easy town win. I may just unvote you Rita and see if the rest of the town who should have come to the same conclusion as me want to vote for the last Mafia member instead? Might be a easy way to do it.

However Rita, your story is very incomplete as the Miller. You don't have fen understand the role which is explained in greater detail in the Pam our gracious host sent me with my role.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Oh no, I wasn't able to convince the mafia pretending to be my role. Oh woe is me...


Second if people read through all your posts it is painfully obvious you are the Lyncher. A one track mind on one person.

Huh, it's funny old man... you say all my posts, but what you actually mean is all my posts after you claimed to be the Miller, before which I was barely looking at you at all. I wonder what possible motive you might have to twist that little detail...

[[M] Felix]

Rita;3664137']
You know, if you weren't such a dumb jerk you'd realise that if you don't believe me, then the smart thing is to target me.

- If I'm Mafia, town wins.
- If I'm the Lyncher, Raven is (mostly) proved innocent, he's eliminated as a suspect.
- If I'm Town, everyone knows to kill Raven next time out.

Except that if we believe you and vote Raven we kill a townie, and there's only two left, and mafia kills another townie that night. Mafia wins the game.

If we don't believe you and vote you, mafia kills a townie that night. Then there's only two townies left, but it was your best chance to try and get Raven so at least you went down swinging.

No the safest move for town is to ignore you, and save their lynching for actual mafia. With only three people left, it's easy for things to suddenly turn grim for town. Especially if they believe you and vote for Raven.

It's back to the list. Anise, Elize, and Rowen. Who's the baddy?

[[M] Aaron]

I have Anise as the baddy. Out of all the options she is the last one to not make any claim inless I missed something.

[[M] Mom – Host]

It is officially past halftime! Here are the votes so far, if I am correct. Please let me know if I got anything wrong!

Raven - 2 (Rowen, Rita)
Rita - 1 (Raven)

You have 24 hours left to decide. Majority lynches can happen at this point. 4 are needed for a majority lynch. Happy hunting!

[[M] Elize]

Okay, so here's what I'm currently thinking:

At this stage, we need to be careful not to lynch a Third-Party, because as was revealed earlier, they technically count as Town for lose-state purposes, and we don't want to lynch anyone other than a traitor at this point if we can help it. Thankfully, I do believe we are allowed one more day if this one fails to lynch Mafia. But let's not count on that.

So who's left? Lemme recap and get the pieces set into my head.

That's why I'm around, Elize. I've been memorising all the pretty ladies for you!

*Blush* Grk-no, Teepo, I never told you that!

But I thought you said very clearly to remember the names and numbers of all the eligible-

Uh forget about that. Give me all the names, now!

Well the only guys left are Rowen, who's pretty cool, and Raven who creeps me out. The others are Anise, Pascal and Rita. And us!

Okay, I remember them all now.

So, to make this easier I'm using a dreaded itemised list just so I can be sure to cover everyone:


*Elize opens up her notebook. Lots of pink stickers adorn the cover, probably given to her by the pink twins in Sharilton*

- Rowen:

For me, he's been pretty Null the whole game, which is annoying. He's posted nothing of much interest, though he's encouraged others to formulate ideas and generate discussion, so that works in his favour as far as my read on him is concerned. All told? Still not sure.

- Raven:

Where do I even begin? I still assert that a miller should claim as such immediately on Day One so the Cop avoids wasting an investigation on them, and if you have a shady role like that you're better off coming clean regardless, at least in my opinion. Also, if a Mafia did roleclaim, we would've exposed a Mafia there and then. It'd then be 50/50 killing Mafia Day One, or 100% Day Two. We might've lost our Miller, but that's a better Town role to lose than say, our Enabler.

Other than his role-claim, he's had a couple of weird ideas and suggestions that's kept the heat on him. This makes me question him being a traitor, honestly. His traitor allies would've instructed him on what to say or not. They wouldn't just carelessly let Raven go on with his theories.

Weirdness aside he's occasionally shown a good idea. He was the first person to think we didn't have a doctor, though that was with zero evidence. He accurately found Jade suspicious, and didn't jump on that bandwagon: he consistently found Jade suspicious from about Day Two, well before I kickstarted that particular lynch hunt.

My opinion on him is still malleable, but my impression on him is that he's been helpful- well, he's at least been trying to scumhunt, and has done so pretty consistently across all five days.

- Rita

If I believe Raven, that makes Rita most likely the Lyncher. If I believe Rita is the miller, then my same critique stands.

She had a late start but that's neither here nor there. Her track record with proven traitors is patchy. "I'm not very suspicious of Jade. I'm not sure what it is, maybe I'm just attracted to his mystique, who knows?"

That's a really flimsy reason. Her other main reason for Raven: being adamant that Jade is a traitor, seems slightly weak, because I mean I was pretty suspicious of Jade throughout the game.

Her argument: that claiming Miller puts a target on your back, is fair but then I would rather a Miller be night-killed than almost anyone else.

Personally? I'm suspecting Rita is the Lyncher. It does correlate with the fact that she only became suspicious and openly advocated for Raven on Day Three. A Lyncher wouldn't immediately open up with their target. It isn't proof, but with all our power roles deciding to off themselves, all we can do is use circumstantial evidence.

- Anise

She has posted since Pascal called out me, Rowan and herself to role-claim. She patently ignored that, which is setting off alarm bells. She's been present throughout most of the game (sans the day where she was ill, which is fair enough) so activity isn't an issue.

Her post history is fairly unremarkable, skimming through. She's been much more active today, maybe to make up for being ill, maybe for another reason.

She's suspicious primarily because from my perspective, we have, in descending order of probability and certainty:

Myself: Non-traitor
Pascal: Prob!Survivor/Bodyguard

Raven: Trend!Miller and Lynchee
Rita: Trend!Lyncher

Rowen: Null!Read
Anise: Null!Read

In my opinion, the most suspicious members are Anise and Rowen, but of the two, Anise in my opinion according to my feeling is most suspicious, thus I want her to reveal her role first. She has ignored one request so far.

[[M] Aaron]

Elize thank you for putting it much better than I could have. Your analysis lines up with mine fairly closely, as I was initially suspicious of Rowan it has dropped some. Though Anise hasn't been suspicious per say, it's kind of down to the who is left with the roles and she has dodged you due to most likely being the final scum.

##Unvote: Rita

[[M] Felix]

Pascal;3663769']I have to say, I'm surprised more people didn't vote for Lloyd, but what can you do? The evidence was there.


Rita;3663695']
I'm not very suspicious of Jade. I'm not sure what it is, maybe I'm just attracted to his mystique, who knows? From those four I'm most suspicious of Eizen as he has an active ability and he went to see Rowen night one. Although if Lloyd does turn out to be Mafia, would he have dropped his buddy Eizen in it with his Watcher story?

I'm actually particularly interested in Jade and Rowen right now. I wasn't really looking at Eizen too hard, but that's because I knew Lloyd was mafia.


Rita;3663698']...Hmm

##Unvote: Lloyd
##Vote: Raven

Man, you really just don't trust me, huh? Oh well. If I didn't think you were just stubborn, I'd think you were mafia just because you refuse to look at evidence. It's actually starting to make me keep an eye on you.


Raven;3663697']I would bet money on Jade being scum. I have what I need for 80% positive on him. He will be my vote the next day.

I'm very curious about what this information is.


Pascal;3663776']
Jade;3663773']Rowen, Elize, and Rita at least seem like safe townies. Not certain about Pascal or Anise, but I do not suspect them of illicit activities as much as I do Raven or Velvet.

I don't like yes men that seem to engage in the conversation without actually giving anything. I have you pegged pretty hard for mafia right now. It was a two way tie between you and Rowen before Elize mentioned the Eizen investigation situation. It makes a fair amount of sense. It's not 100%, but it puts you in the lead.

So it's nice of you to put into words who you are and aren't suspicious of. It helps me decide who I should be looking at closer that might have been slipping under my radar. Especially since you put me in the group with her. My guess is you did the classic tactic of suggest one mafia, and one townie. Time to go back re-read Anise's posts really closely. Who Knows?

Maybe you didn't though, and since I'm already wondering why Rita refuses to see the writing on the wall sometimes, perhaps you're trying to pull attention off of her.

I'm still waiting to hear what Raven has to say about you. If I could know whether or not he was actually the miller it would do a lot towards giving his words strength.

Digging in the way back machine, it's interactions like these that show Rita to be the lyncher, and ignore-able, while Jade's comments about who he suspected and why could be useful.

It's speculation, but we have to ask ourselves if he put Rowen on his "good list" to pull suspicion off the last mafia, or if he put Anise on the "medium list" with me trying to do the same thing.

It originally helped me look at Anise a little harder since she hadn't really done much one way or another at that point. I have also been thinking she may be the final mafia, but it's definitely not a certainty. I'll be okay either way at this point, but if town wants to vote Anise I think she's as good a bet as any.

##Vote: Anise

I'll change my vote with town to be a team player on this one if you don't like the Anise vote, but I know I've mentioned Anise as a possible mafia a few times myself, so I think we're all in a agreement. Just let me know for sure!

[[M] Anise]

Well today I decided to spend my entire morning playing minecraft. So sorry about that. Last night I was dealing with incremental weather and power outages. https://emojipedia-us.s3.amazonaws.com/cache/e0/a7/e0a7db9378bc0a3eb7a073c4c1e6d2e3.png

So I wasn't actively avoiding role claiming today after you asked, I just wasn't on eoff. Sorry! :monster:

I would hold off on the vote for me lest you lot want someone to go boom! That sounds more dangerous than it is. Supersaint here, though. I know that seems like the perfect roleclaim to make to keep my skin right now, which is why I've also just avoided claiming it. "Oh no guys, I am the supersaint, don't kill me or someone will go down with me" is totally what a mafia would claim, so I understand if you don't believe me. I've been trying to remain somewhat active (As much as I can.. well besides this morning but I did make a really cool dam with neat towers on it) to help my fellow townies without drawing a lot of suspicion so I didn't get lynched and take out more town than was needed.

I hope that helps everyone. If you believe me, that's great! If not, I understand. I haven't been playing the best game this time around due to my personal life issues. So I can see how I may not seem as convincing as I should be. Either way, do what you feel is best, town! Just be careful because whoever casts the last vote on me will go down with me. I'm not sure how that puts us against the mafia though.

Elize, Rowen, Rita, Raven, Pascal, Anise.

So right now it's 1 to 5. If we lynch a person that's 1:4 but if that person is me, and the other person who votes me last is town then it's 1:3 and then the mafia has a night kill and it's 1:2 the next day. I don't know if that means the mafia wins or if they have to convince one person that the other is mafia? I'm not sure how that would work.

[[M] Elize]

Thank you Anise. I'll hold back on commenting on your role-claim - and issuing my own - until I've heard Rowen's claim for myself.

Rowen: please state your role.

Damn, this day is getting serious, Elize. Even our voices aren't quite sounding like our own!

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

Got you, Anise. You're mafia. I know, because I'm the supersaint.

[##Unvote: Raven]
[##Vote: Anise]

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

I'll even put my money where my mouth is. If others agree to vote for Anise, then I'll unvote her and make sure I'm the last one to vote for her. If she's the supersaint, her ability will take me out. Only it won't. Because she isn't.

[[M] Anise]

Well of course you'd say that. That would just leave you as the mafia. Of course you'd say you're my role. Come on.

[[M] Anise]

##Vote: Rowen

[[M] Elize]

Before I say anything, let's take stock as to where we are with the voting at this point.



Day Five
Majority Lynch Occurs at Four Votes




Anise - 2 (Pascal, Rowen)
Raven - 1 (Rowen, Rita)
Rowen - 1 (Anise)

Rita - 0 (Raven)

Elize and Raven are yet to vote


Anise is currently on two votes. If Rowen decides to follow through with his vote plan he outlined above, then he takes the risk that he is wrong. Of course, he's very adamant he isn't. Let's leave the vote count for now.

I should explain myself. My plan was to get the two 'unknowns' - Anise and Rowen - to roleclaim first. As these two are by far the most likely to be Mafia, I wanted them to claim first without any prior knowledge. If they are telling the truth, then all is well. If one of them is lying, it will be easiest to tell if they are lying, thanks to Pascal's post, quoted below:


Pascal;3664126']
Bodyguard - Will protect someone else from night kills at the expense of their own life. Cannot be night killed if targeted directly.
Lyncher - Will be assigned a player they need to convince other players to lynch. If they succeed they win no matter which faction wins, but if their target is night killed or lynched without them also voting to lynch that person, they become a vanilla townie.
Roleblocker - Blocks a person's ability and/or role at night.
Jailkeeper - Prevents a person from being night killed but also prevents them from using their role or ability.
Survivor - Must survive until the end of the game to win. They win with either faction.
Watcher - They will be informed of the name of the player(s) of anyone who targets their chosen player during the night.
Tracker - They will be told the name of the player that their chosen player targets during the night.
Doctor - They will protect another player from a night kill.
Cop - This player can select another player at night and will be told whether they are town, mafia, or other.
Supersaint - If this player is killed, they will also kill the player whom cast the last vote on them.
Miller - This player is a townie who will investigate as Mafia to the cop.
Ascetic - This player is immune to all night actions EXCEPT for night kills.
Bulletproof - This player cannot be night killed.
Enabler - If this player is killed, another player will lose an ability or role.
Godfather - This player is mafia that will investigate as Town to the cop.


Pascal's list here is a very handy guide to looking at which roles are left unconfirmed as being held by someone.

My current opinion is that Miller and Lyncher are pretty much confirmed with Raven and Rita respectively. Not 100%, but it is looking that way. Therefore, the only roles remaining are:

Tracker
Supersaint
Ascetic

At about this point I'll confirm that I am the Ascetic Townie.

My gambit therefore in getting Anise and Rowen to roleclaim is simple: if they roleclaim as my role before me, they are lying, and therefore a traitor. By making them make the first move, they have no prior knowledge and could fall into my trap. Had I moved first, they would know not to claim Ascetic.

As it happens, neither claimed Ascetic (ugh) but it does confirm that one of Anise or Rowen is lying. Therefore, the drama surrounding Raven and Rita can be safely put to bed. Any lingering concerns that one of them is our last traitor can be dispelled.

Right then? Who is it? Anise, or Rowen?

I've outlined my general suspicions of both in my earlier wall o' text (sorry about these by the way!), but since the roleclaims, something interesting has come to light.

Namely, I find it notable that Rowen is willing to take the last vote. He said this openly without prompting. If he was the last traitor, this would be tantamount to reflective suicide.

Furthermore, Rowen's behaviour throughout the game aligns somewhat more closely with his claimed role than Anise. He's been pretty much in the background the whole time, very agreeable, polite. He's not stuck his neck out for any controversial opinions. Ordinarily this is suspicious but for a Supersaint not getting a Town killed through your mislynch is essential, so I buy the idea that Rowen has been quiet because he doesn't want to draw attention to himself.

Honestly, between them neither's convinced me of their absolute innocence, but on the balance of probability I find Rowen's claim more believable, and he's the better bet regardless with his 'I'll take the last vote' idea. If he does turn out to be lying, he'll die and we win. If he backs out of the idea, he's probably the traitor.

So, here we go: [##VOTE: Anise]

The vote chart has been updated thusly:



Day Five
Majority Lynch Occurs at Four Votes




Anise - 3 (Pascal, Rowen, Elize)
Raven - 1 (Rowen, Rita)
Rowen - 1 (Anise)

Rita - 0 (Raven)

Raven is yet to vote

[[M] Anise]

Elize;3664204']

Furthermore, Rowen's behaviour throughout the game aligns somewhat more closely with his claimed role than Anise. He's been pretty much in the background the whole time, very agreeable, polite. He's not stuck his neck out for any controversial opinions. Ordinarily this is suspicious but for a Supersaint not getting a Town killed through your mislynch is essential, so I buy the idea that Rowen has been quiet because he doesn't want to draw attention to himself.




Literally change his name to my name and i've been behaving the exact same way. Which I even pointed out in my role reveal post. :/

[[M] Aaron]

No need to stick your neck out Rowan. As I will! I too believe that Anise is the final one and have since day 3. The fact that I wanted Jade gone first, then the Lyncher made her move on me delayed it. However if we are wrong, I at least get to block the Lyncher.

#Vote: Anise

[[M] Elize]

Similar, yes, but - and believe me, I've compared your post histories three times now - yours are more speculative and suggesting ideas while Rowen typically either agrees with someone, repetition of what someone else has said, or encouraging others to speak.

In other words, Rowen's posts are much more cautious and tentative.

Even without my opinion on the posts, Rowen's is simply the more tempting offer. And he freely offered it first. It's as simple as that at this point for me.

[[M] Elize]

Oh, hello to you to Raven.

Well, he's made that lockdown official. And without Rowen being the final vote.

You impatient dunderhead!

Really gotta hope that I'm correct on Anise in this case.

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

[##Unvote: Anise]
[##Vote: Anise]

There. I'm now the last person to vote for Anise. If she's the supersaint, I'll be the one taking the hit.

[[M] Elize]

A nice thought, but typically lock-down happens at the moment of the final vote being cast. At least, that's how I would view it if I was moderating but each game is different so we'll see.

[[M] Aaron]

I am confident in my vote. This is a town win. I would have had Rowan cast it if not.

[[M] Mom – Host]

OF COURSE everyone waits to do this until the one time I have plans for the evening. WHELL

So a majority lockdown has occured, with Anise being on the chopping block


Let's see how town did...

http://i.imgur.com/Fj5nq15.png

Spunky Anise was indeed the last member of mafia, the mafia tracker, played by the skilled Freya! Round of applause, good job to you!

Thanks so much for playing everyone and here are your credits. Stay tuned for night actions and an extra special announcement!

http://i.imgur.com/jPWMSOt.pngHost: The lovely Supreme Overlord Kohaku played by Pumpkin
http://i.imgur.com/Fj5nq15.pngAnise: Mafia Tracker played by Freya
http://i.imgur.com/pvCqA6i.pngColette: Town Jailkeeper played by Slothy
http://i.imgur.com/qqJhJUI.pngEizen: Town Bulletproof cop played by Fynn
http://i.imgur.com/7fRLo2l.pngElize: Town Ascetic played by Formalhaut
http://i.imgur.com/L6l5YYj.pngJade: Mafia Godfather played by KleinerKiller
http://i.imgur.com/vf4BoIx.pngLloyd: Mafia Roleblocker played by Karifean
http://i.imgur.com/IGgf2bB.pngMikleo: Town Enabler (of Bulletproof) played by Laddy
http://i.imgur.com/sIhr04i.pngPascal: Bodyguard Survivor played by sharkythesharkdogg
http://i.imgur.com/yRix89R.pngRaven: Town Miller played by Raven
http://i.imgur.com/UrA4li9.pngRita: Lyncher (of Raven) played by Fox
http://i.imgur.com/ZasnjYl.pngRowen: Town Supersaint played by Mr. Carnelian
http://i.imgur.com/y53oD5c.pngVelvet: Town Watcher played by Scruffington

Night actions:

Night One
Colette jailkeeps Lloyd
Eizen investigates Rowen
Velvet watches Jade
Pascal bodyguards Colette
Jade nightkills Pascal
Lloyd blocks Colette
Anise tracks Eizen

Night Two:
Colette jailkeeps Lloyd
Pascal bodyguards Lloyd
Jade nightkills Colette
Lloyd blocks Colette
Anise tracks Elize
Velvet watches Lloyd

Night Three:
Jade nightkills Eizen
Anise tracks Raven
Eizen investigates Raven
Pascal bodyguards Rowen

Night Four:
Anise nightkills Velvet
Pascal bodyguards Raven

[[M] Mom – Host]

Thank you so much to everyone who played, I had an awesome time and I hope you all did too! I loved hosting and I hope some of you return for the second game I plan to host!

Now then, everyone please send me who you think this game's MVP was. This person does not have to have lived until the end to qualify. I don't care if you PM it to Pumpkin or message me on Discord or VM Pumpkin or text me, just please tell me privately who your vote goes to. Please don't PM this account as I might not check it since the game is done. And yes, I will harass you about it. And the winner, as we know, of MVP, gets a Tales game of their choosing!

Thanks again everyone, I had so much fun and I hope you did too. This was an awesome game and you all did great :flirt: