Mo-Nercy

Last fortnight's podium tips were a big fail. I got two of them right, but in the wrong places. And Lewis Hamilton ended up not finishing at all.

Which I suppose, is the big talking point this week in F1 - the circumstances behind Hamilton's crash with Mark Webber. People could be forgiven for thinking by now that Mark Webber is a great big crash magnet. In his early years in F1, he built a reputation for qualifying well but not finishing due to carelessness, poor car realibility and rotten luck. Earlier this year, he catapulted himself off Heikki Kovalainen's Lotus and people were very quick to condemn him before getting all the facts (Heikki had braked unnaturally early while Webber was still in the slipstream). But this most recent incident should be thought of exactly as what the race stewards decided - a racing incident.

Hamilton was undoubtedly faster at the time. Coming out of the safety car period, Webber had been on his prime tyres for much longer than Hamilton and that he was down on grip relative to him as a result. Webber drove defensively in response and covered off the inside line. Hamilton does what he does best and tried to go around the outside of the turn (I don't know it's name, or number.. but it's one of the few in Singapore with a slight run-off area to accommodate wide passing manuevers). Because Webber was forced off line briefly and therefore, made to brake earlier, Hamilton actually passed him before the turn in. However, Webber still had half a car length in Hamilton's space when the touch occurred and Hamilton had no right to turn in on the apex and shut him out there. This isn't a wide circuit with big rumble strips and astroturf lining the inside. Webber was being forced into a wall. He couldn't just make his car disappear. Hamilton would've probably come out in front if he'd given him more room anyway, so he really doesn't have anyone else to blame but himself.

Besides, although the consequences of the crash were that Hamilton had to retire and Webber proceeded to take third place, it could've easily been the other way around, so it would've been unfair to give Webber a penalty for defending his line and then just happening to have the stronger car.

Anyway, it was a good win by Alonso. I would've liked to have seen Vettel stay out for a few more laps after Alonso pitted to try and overtake him. Either Red Bull were a) stupid, b) opting for the safe 2nd place, c) concerned about the state of Vettel's tyres or d) secretly manuevering Mark Webber into the Number 1 driver role and preventing Sebastian from scoring too many points.

d)'s pretty out there, I admit. It's hard to imagine the Austrian-run Red Bull team backing Webber to win the title when Sebastian Vettel is a) German and b) a product of their young driver's program. Then again, Webber is out on top of the table and with four races to go... Red Bull wouldn't want to make the same mistake McLaren did in 2007 when they let Hamilton and Alonso race each other for points till the end (Ferrari's Kimi Raikkonen nicked the title by a single point that year). Although Vettel's lifted his game since the first half of the season, Webber's still the best mathematical possibility to win. Tough position for Red Bull to be in, I'm sure.

MO'S PODIUM TIP FOR JAPAN
Suzuka next fortnight. One of the best F1 tracks of all time. It's going to be a really good race, I think, with all five championship contenders with a good chance to win the race.
1. Mark Webber (He's been in a slight slump the last few races and he's due for a good performance. He's still the driver who's won the more GPs and has been on the podiums the most times this year. He knows it won't look good for him to win the title with less wins than someone else, and there's no better place to grab a fifth victory than Suzuka, one of the favourites for many drivers)
2. Fernando Alonso (Two wins in a row and his first season at Ferrari is starting to look a lot like Raikkonen's in '07 - poor first half of the year, but a strong finish. I'm just vibeing that he won't win the Japanese GP though.. the competition this year is just too good for someone, even of Alonso's abilities, to dominate for too long)
3. Jenson Button (The defending champion really needs to stamp his authority. There's no better time to do so than when your teammate is struggling to finish a race contact-free and probably getting more and more frustrated with each DNF)