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I would rather Square figure out how to make an awesome HD RPG than a handheld entry that would probably be similar to a lot of games I've already played. I think they realize this, given how Dragon Quest has slowly crawled back to consoles (and Sony) since taking a chance with DQIX.
The next FF would be more likely to go mobile, as that's where Japan is right now. 3DS support is in decline, with Nintendo doubling down on the Wii U and not signing any games to fill the void.
Um... considering Nintendo is releasing a new upgraded 3DS, I will have to disagree with your thoughts about the systems' decline and Nintendo not caring anymore. Also focusing on the part of their business that is not doing well doesn't mean they have no interest in the part that is dominating the console industry. Also Square-Enix already has a few titles dedicated for future release on the 3DS so I don't really understand where you're coming from on the "3DS being in decline".
The 3DS is the best system that's out right now. No way it's in decline.
Both output and sales have demonstrably fallen in 2014.
Probably because everyone owns one already. ;)
It actually had a pretty nice spike in sales last month in anticipation for the Smash Bros. game and depending how Nintendo markets the super 3DS they decided to make, they could still stand to gain a few. Honestly they're doing fine with the system at the moment, and unlike their consoles, they don't have to worry as much about releasing content since third-party developers love their handhelds. So even the lack of a first-party game is not really a big deal for them like it is for the Wii U. I mean Persona Q, Bravery Second, Final Fantasy Explorers, Devil Survivor 2 Director's Cut, Pokemon Alpha Sapphire and Omega Ruby, Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate... the list goes on and most of this is scheduled for late 2014/early 2015 alone. So I don't feel the 3DS is slowing down at the moment and the new 3DS has freaking Xenoblade Chronicles coming out for it which still just kind of blows my mind they would do that... With the new system, I feel it's even more justified for SE to consider the idea, even if I don't believe it will happen.
Even with a sales bump, August 2014 continued the double-digit year on year decline.
http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=84806737
http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=132770732
I think by the time FFXVI comes out the 3ds will be phased out by it's next nintendo handheld successor. I don't mind if it did come out on 3ds though, the 3ds has an amazing library of games already and I'm sure it'd sell well.