Quote:
Originally Posted by
[M] Blank
Rydia, if Cid's post was a subtle roleclaim and there's a chance he's a cop, why draw attention to it with the doctor dead? You said there's not much to go on. If you're not sure, shouldn't you have waited to see what Cid said today?
Because I do not at this juncture believe him to be the cop, but it points to the possibility of his being mafia--if indeed it was a roleclaim.
Now: I've re-read Day 1 again in the "what would I do if I were mafia" mindset looking for reasons why they would go after Laguna. I've found remarkably little, except this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by
[M] Laguna
Quote:
Originally Posted by
[M] Quistis
As is every vote.
Not really. Sure you never know what the person is until the flip, but at least by voting for people with posts you can make an educated guess. Voting for someone who has presented no evidence is by definition an uneducated guess.
So long shot theory: The mafia gunned him down because they don't want him to convince us not to vote for inactives?
Pretty much everything Laguna said on day one besides this was fairly frivolous and in no way a threat to the mafia.
Alternate theory: We know that the mafia are aware of each other, and therefore the townies. What other information might they be privy to?
1) They could know who is playing each role -- this would be a reason to put a hit on Laguna, because they knew he was Del Murder and therefore an experienced player. The mafiosos, therefore, would have advance knowledge on Day 1 that Laguna was a deader.
2) They know who has key roles, and went after the Doctor to prevent him from messing with their hits.
If supposition 2) is true, we're well and truly smurfed, so let us apply the Fistoulari principle: If you need something to be true, assume it is. We must assume that they do not know who the townie key roles are and that leaves supposition 1) as the only logical explanation.
To most of us, this is more or less essentially useless information, but there may be a second Doctor or previously unseen key roles amongst the townies. With that in mind, I address the following statement to the holders of said key roles: Try to figure out who is played by whom as quickly as possible, and use whatever capabilities you have to block the mafia from knocking out experienced players.