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The percentage is still even 1% even if you don't open all of the treasure chests.
As for Elfin, who states he obtained the Weapon even after opening chests, I still highly doubt you. If the guide says it "disappears" if you open even one of those chests, I'm more willing to put my money on that.
dis‧ap‧pear /ˌdɪsəˈpɪər/ Pronunciation Key - [dis-uh-peer]
1. to cease to exist or be known; pass away; end gradually: One by one the symptoms disappeared.
Also, here's the location of the 4th. Heck, here's all 4 that I found listed on GameFAQS:
The most powerful weapon in the game has a trick to it that those who have to open EVERY treasure chest would miss out on. There are 4 places with treasure chests that must NOT be opened in order for the Zodiac Spear to appear:
1) Treasure chest in Lowtown, outside of Old Dylan's place
2) When sneaking into the palace (Before getting the Goddess Tear), there are several chests in the Cellar. Do not open the two chests in the southeast corner.
3) All treasure chests in the Confiscatory (the place where you get your weapons and armor back after being captured)
4) In the Phon Coast, later in the game, there is an island with 16 chests all near each other. The 4th chest that must NOT be opened is among these, so it is best to leave them all alone. They only contain Gil anyway.
If you've left all these treasures be, you'll find the Zodiac Spear in the Necrohol of Nabudis. It sports a whopping +150 attack and, like all spears, +8 Evasion.
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actually u just make sure u dont open the first two treasure only
Bcoz my fren still able to get it and i open all the chest and manage to get it from the henne mines after 4 hours ++ trying
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If I really, really, absurdly wish to have this Zodia Spear, I think I'll simply borrow a Gameshark and make it mine via that method.
I can't be bothered to consult a guide for every smurfing time I see a treasure chest. Chests are made to be opened, as such, I will.
Additionally, it's only one weapon, and later in the game, it's better to have other things equiped than mass power. If you're goinig to fill your hands with a weapon, it's best to have it be a Ninja Sword or Katana anyways, seeing as the damage cap is 9999 per hit. I like seeing numerous 4999's rather than one 9999 float above an enemy's head.
I'll play through the game numerous times, but I am not about to worry about certain chests in the game.