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Well, the two actual extremes are "nothing happens" and "total destruction of human civilization"- so, a few million is pretty much in the range of average. And considering how devestating Spanish Influenza was.... seriously, have ANY of you read the nice little links I provided?
spanish flu did not effect the healthy. most of it's victims were soldiers. and they weren't the picture of health. on rations, stuck in trenches being shelled and under continous stress and lack of sleep. soldiers died at a mortality rate of around a third.
but these people were very open to infection. and they were in large groups.
also spanish flu was not spanish. it was from america (not asia as is commonly thought) and it is in discussion whether or not it came from pigs or chickens. but the farm it came from can be traced.
this disease is going to be massive. it will kill millions. but there is nothing we can really do about it. don't worry just accept it.
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Originally Posted by udsuna
Ok, point taken, those are the definate extremes... I was viewing more as the extremes were a group of actions.Such as on the nothing happens side there would also be "we find a cure within days/weeks/months after it is capable of easily spreading amoung poeple. Where as annilation side is massive deaths(btw I don't think it is improbable for millions to die, but I got the impression somewhere in this thread that it was WORSE then that(upwards of over a billion or so is the impression I recieved... maybe I read in too much)).
edit- yep I read in somewhere... that or I read it when I was in a bad mood(quite possible)... However, no one from what I have seen in review said anything that harsh.... ah well.
Well, we're going to lose about 25-30%, if not more, of everyone infected. But you can figure only 1 in 10 or so infected (which is about what Spanish Influenza did). Spanish flu really is the ONLY parallel we have. If we're lucky, Avian won't be worse. It's certainly a stronger, more advanced, virus. But the mutations that make it more virulant amongst humans MIGHT make it somewhat less deadly.
Now, if it manages to infect the entire human race, yes, it would kill billions.
urbanisation is stronger now than it was back then. in a way it was contained by the war and lack of technology. now with air travel being common and growth of population in the developing world we are more succeptible to this.
Yes, but Spanish Influenza only (detectably) infected 1/10th of those who were certainly exposed. As in family members living in the households of others who developed symptoms. Or hospital staff and such. It'll definately affect a larger chunk of our population, we have more people and they're closer together. More exposure, so more infection, so more death.
Oh, and Cloud....
It is infecting human-to-human. Has been for at least six months. Not the version in Europe, it seems, but one of the asian strains has infected hospital staff taking care of infected patients. So it doesn't have nearly the infection rates, maybe it isn't even airborn, but it is happening.
The Spanish flu was just as deadly to adults in non-combative countries during WW1. It killed 20-40 year olds at LEAST 3 times over more often than it did children and elderly combined. Yes, the countries that were in the war, they suffered far worse. But it was just as good at affecting Asia and South America, who had almost no activity in WW1.
And no medical expert in the world has ever said with any certainty where it came from. Most think it was an asian virus, but it's rediculous to believe that with certainty. Some assert middle-eastern, based on it's spread rates, and that might be possible. The first major explosions were post-war America and Europe, but the "natural" spread started earlier than that.
Theres no doubt, Transport of today will spread illness faster. the only major way to travel in years past was by Ocean Liners (What was there golden age.) It took over a week to get to America in that time any mass illnesses on bored would be detected, even back then they had high health standards where most 2nd and 3rd class passengers had to pass health inspection, if the 3rd class broke the quarentine (By leaving third class) the whole ship would be stopped when it arrived at America (Or any port really) for full health inspection, this is something not done on air travel. Planes can now cross the globe in hours, more often, this would spread illness far worse these days.
first reported case and probably source of spanish flu was in fort riley, haskel county, kansas. the mutation between swine flu and avian flu is believed to have happened there (they bred their own animals).
and remember asia was also at war during the time, india, china and japan were all at war. and the only sizeable place not to be affected was some town in brazil.
and i did already say that the virus can be transmitted by humans now.
When it comes here we will just have to hope for the best, not much can defend against it.
Ok, I have read that some swiss manufacture of Tamiflu has proved to help with the avian flu, Depending on climate, terrain and preperations the avian flu could be like a nuke on England or just a Flu. Meaning if we get lucky it may flop because of terrain and climate which arent good mutation conditions.
Ok If you didn't understand it, The virus originated from the China/Asian area right? compare terrain, climate and other contrastable things. It mutated into this virus there, chances are lowered when it comes here it'll mutate but it also depends if another strain mutates and comes here.
disease isn't bound by terrain or even climate. it doesn't need to climb mountains and the virus will spend most of it's time at body temperature.
the swiss company you refer to would be roche. the only company with the copyright to produce tamiflu. they are for that reason right now the anti-christ.
tamiflu may proof to be useless. h5n1 is resitant to it. this as shown in vietnam when it was used. that is probably due to the change in the virus giving it a lower killing potential but longer infection time.
Terrain and climate affect breeding and mutation conditions not status.
mutation depends on the human body containing the virus. the virus does not mutate outside an infected body. therefore terrian will have no effect on mutation. and the mutation is done. human-human flu exists in vietnam. the vietnamese strain is also resistant to treatment and is liable to infect more while still keeping a very high mortality rate.
and breeding of the virus also occours within the body and so is totally seperate from the climate in the same way terrain is. unless you meant of the bodies containg it but i can't see the relevance of that.
I'm talking abou the virus itself but if that's true then Tamiflu vaccines will physically prevent a mutation then.
tamiflu is not a vaccine and does not prevent infection. it kills off certain types of flu. the h5n1 variant which has been seen in vietnam and is the dangerous one is resistant to it.
the mutation has already happened. and even if we contain that mutation the possibility of it mutating somewhere is not ruled out. it is in fact an almost certainty.thailand has reported cases of human-human transfer as well.