Eh, I figured it warranted its own thread. Football breakdown ahead!
*****
In 1960, an upstart football league opened its doors to America in an attempt to funnel support from the firmly established National Football League. It was called the American Football League, comprised of eight teams, one of which was known as the Boston Patriots. While it wouldn’t take long for the boys from New England to become respectable in the fresh AFL, that first season was a struggle in which the team finished dead last.
At the same time, the Philadelphia Eagles of the NFL were on top of the football world, so to speak. Their 1960 season was capped with a triumph of the Green Bay Packers to capture the league title. In the City of Brotherly Love, there was plenty of reason to expect the good times to continue.
Years dragged on, and the two teams carried on down two distinct paths, neither of which was ideal. The Patriots quickly became contenders, but soon fell into that notorious New England habit of coming up short. When they finally did reach the zenith, the Super Bowl, they were blown out of the water by the 1985 Chicago Bears. Following the ’86 season, the bottom fell out and the team languished.
Philadelphia also suffered similar heartbreak, with 18 years between the 1960 victory and their next postseason appearance. Much like the Patriots, too, the Eagles were beaten soundly in a Super Bowl, by the Raiders in 1981.
Recent years, however, have seen a revival of both of these franchises, although their roads diverted sharper than before. With the emergence of Tom Brady at quarterback, the Patriots finally won the big one after the 2002 season, stunning a heavily favored St. Louis Rams team. Two weeks before, though, the Eagles – behind a talented quarterback of their own, Donovan McNabb – had pushed those same Rams to the brink in a tantalizingly close NFC Championship game.
The next season proved to be déjà vu all over again. Philadelphia, at home against an unheralded Tampa Bay Buccaneers team, dropped the ball and a second straight opportunity to reach the Super Bowl. Before anyone could imagine the situation getting any worse, they lost a third NFC title game last season against an upstart Carolina Panthers team.
New England, in the meantime, captured their second Super Bowl title by beating those Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII. Before the 2004 season, the Eagles and the Patriots were the consensus picks of many experts to meet in Jacksonville for Super Bowl XXXIX, and the teams were happy to oblige (although not without obstacles).
Bill Belichick’s troops, consistently the definition of “team”, have overcome injuries, a record-setting offensive machine and a rookie from the Steel City to seize their chance at cementing themselves as a true dynasty: Three titles in four years. Andy Reid and the Eagles lost Terrell Owens, arguably the biggest acquisition any team made in the past off-season, and eliminated whatever demons hung over the franchise to finally reach their second Super Bowl on the fourth try.
45 years later, the two team meet for the first time in the Super Bowl. This Sunday, only one team will be awarded the Lombardi Trophy. Who will it be? This analysis will tell you everything you need to know.
QUARTERBACK
Right off the bat, the toughest matchup to call. Both Donovan McNabb and Tom Brady excel at what they do, and both men have passed their playoff tests with flying colors.
People still had their doubts about McNabb after a relatively shaky victory over the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC divisional playoffs. It’s safe to say now, though, that any critics left have been silenced after his masterful performance in the NFC title game against the Atlanta Falcons. While Jim Mora’s front four undoubtedly had their sights set on #5 the whole game, McNabb displayed his ability to buy time by escaping the rush on numerous occasions, often rolling out and finding a receiver for a big play. For those who remember, too, it was also impressive to see McNabb fire a perfect 40-yard strike into a stiff wind.
The conditions in Jacksonville promise to be much nicer, which will probably allow the Eagles to open up their passing game more than they could back in Philadelphia. If Romeo Crennel, New England’s defensive coordinator, tries to apply pressure with five- and six-man blitzes, you may see McNabb run. While he doesn’t use his legs as often as he used to, it is worthwhile to note that he’s averaged 6.3 per run throughout his career.
In the meantime, Tom Brady continues to amaze everyone with a remarkably steady game. He didn’t put up eye-popping numbers against Indianapolis or Pittsburgh; in fact, both yard totals were under his career postseason yards per game total (214.6, for the record). What was eye-popping, though, was his completion percentage (66.6%). That is considerably better than his career postseason average and better than McNabb’s percentage (64.4%) during these playoffs.
There are some things, though, that don’t show up in the statistic columns. Some people may be unaware that the Patriots held the ball two minutes to every one that Indianapolis had in their playoff tilt, a fair portion of which can be attributed to a short passing game that nickel-and-dimed the Colts to death. Of course, Brady hasn’t done everything by himself this time around, but more on that later.
When it comes down to it, the decision is too close to call. Brady has the intangibles and the experience, but McNabb has the legs and the arm. I call this quarterback duel a draw.
BACKFIELD (RBs AND FBs)
For New England, the running game is a far cry from what it was a year ago. Good thing, too.
After eight losing seasons in Cincinnati, Corey Dillon was eager to play for a winner. What better place to go to win than New England? Once thought of as a malcontent, Dillon has done nothing but become a team player and break out for his best season yet. After setting career highs in rushing yards (1,635) and touchdowns (12), he was the hero of the Indianapolis matchup, where he helped the Patriots grind the game to a screeching halt with 144 yards. Not a bad exchange on a second-round draft pick, if you ask me.
Brian Westbrook has had a great season, too, just not quite in the same manner. He didn’t rush for even half as many yards as Dillon (812), but no one ever said Philadelphia was a predominantly run-based team. Instead, Westbrook hauled in 73 passes for 702 yards (not far behind Jimmy Smith and teammate Terrell Owens, for the big picture) to make up the difference. He’s also racked up 282 combined yards in the playoffs, which leads me to think that perhaps it was he, not Owens, that was the missing piece of the puzzle in past Eagles failures.
There’s also Dorsey Levens, a pure power runner, who could provide a dual threat if Philly lines Westbrook out wide. In any case, Westbrook will create problems for the New England defense no matter where he lines up on the field. He gave the Falcons fits coming out on the screen, which Philadelphia loves to do, but I suspect they might line him up more as a receiver and test Belichick’s tattered secondary. For all of Dillon’s accomplishments this year, Westbrook’s versatility and explosiveness leads me to give this matchup to the Eagles.
RECEIVERS (WRs AND TEs)
The big question, as everyone knows, is whether Terrell Owens will play or not. They say he won’t, but if he does, the focus turns to how effective he can be.
When he was healthy, there was no doubt that he was the best wide receiver in football in 2004. He came down with 77 catches and 14 touchdowns before the leg injury, and gave McNabb the gamebreaker he’s lacked the last couple of years.
The jury is still out on everyone else in the Eagles receiver corps, though. Outside of Brian Westbrook and Owens, no one gave Philadelphia consistent production throughout the season. Todd Pinkston, expected to shoulder the load in Owens’ absence, has been virtually invisible in the playoffs. Freddie Mitchell, he of the silver tongue, took a step back against Atlanta after a solid game against Minnesota, and has yet to back up his lofty self-proclaimed greatness. Billy McMullen hasn’t seen enough game action to warrant any confidence.
Greg Lewis, on the other hand, has come up with big plays in both playoff games so far, including the aforementioned 40-yard play against Atlanta. If Owens can’t go, I think the Eagles may use Lewis in a greater capacity than they have. He’s speedy enough to keep New England’s secondary honest, much like Steve Smith last year.
Speaking of Smith, L.J. also remains a question mark. Like Mitchell, he’s shown at times throughout the season that he can get the job done, but the Patriots will be focusing on him with Chad Lewis’ injury. If he can give the Eagles a presence over the middle, Philadelphia will be in good shape.
Much like last season, a different player stepped up week after week to make big plays for the Patriots in 2004. Against Seattle, it was Bethel Johnson. Against Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship, it was Deion Branch playing the backbreaker. It’s anyone’s guess as to who the hero will be in the Super Bowl, but that’s just the way they like it.
No Patriot receiver had statistics anywhere close to Owens, but they’re all solid. David Patten hauled in 800 yards during the season, but has disappeared in the playoffs. David Givens was the consistent one, leading the team in receptions and yards and hauling in a touchdown in each of New England’s playoff wins. Deion Branch, as mentioned before, has already flashed the big-play ability and would be hungry (I’m sure) to do so again (remember his Super Bowl performance last year).
One big difference, much like Philadelphia, will be made at tight end. Daniel Graham had his best season yet, catching 7 touchdowns, but has been ignored in the playoffs. Then again, maybe it just hasn’t been his turn to shine yet. Much like L.J. Smith, I believe he’ll be a key to New England’s success, especially with Philadelphia’s All-Pro-studded secondary.
Owens or not, though, I give the advantage to New England. Chances are that even if Terrell Owens does make an appearance he won’t be anywhere close to 100 percent, and the Patriots will be glad to adjust accordingly.
OFFENSIVE LINE
Both teams have pushed the pile effectively in 2004, so it’s hard to crown one unit better than the other. There’s a reason Philadelphia thrives on the running back screen, and it’s the same reason Corey Dillon had a banner year. The offensive line gave Donovan McNabb all day to throw on several plays, and the offensive line stymied Pittsburgh’s #1 ranked defense.
One question, so far as I’ve explored, is how healthy Philly left tackle Jon Runyan will be on game day. Bothered by an ankle injury (I think it was an ankle injury), he put the clamps on Patrick Kerney and will draw Richard Seymour if Seymour plays. On the other hand, New England tackles Brandon Gorin and Matt Light will have their hands full with Jevon Kearse, as Philadelphia plans to have him switch ends on occasion. How long can they withstand the Freak?
In the end, I give the advantage to Philadelphia. They’ve proven they can play the run, as demonstrated on plenty of plays last week against Atlanta (gaping running lanes) and have the athletic chops to consistently allow McNabb to throw the screen. The Patriots get points for Corey Dillon’s success, of course, but it’s not enough in my eyes.
FRONT SEVEN (DLs AND LBs)
Peyton Manning marched into Gillette Stadium again and limped out a loser again. Pittsburgh’s Bus was put up on blocks, and Big Ben’s clock was knocked off its block. Neither the Colts’ record-setting aerial attack nor the Steelers’ bruising ground game could crack the New England defense, which has been highly praised (and deservedly so) as the best defense in the NFL. If defense wins championships, then keeping this unit together might develop the team into a dynasty.
It all starts up front with the Patriots, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that Bill Belichick has a nose for identifying great talent. Keith Traylor has been the run-stuffer they expected him to be, and the rotation of veterans like Richard Seymour and Jarvis Green with rookies like Vince Wilfork has paid greater dividends than anyone could’ve imagined.
You’ve probably heard something of the linebacker crew, too, which is short on name recognition and high on ability like the rest of the team. Willie McGinest, Ted Johnson, Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel have been simply outstanding all year long.
Does this sound familiar? If so, it’s because it’s essentially the same thing I wrote last year with a few edited details. It’s fairly easy to conclude that it’s simply business as usually in Foxboro, but the task is different this time. McNabb, obviously, is completely different from Jake Delhomme, Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger, and containing him will be crucial.
Admittedly, the Eagles’ front seven has been far better than I guessed they would be. In 2004, it wasn’t an easy task to shut down Minnesota’s aerial attack, but Daunte Culpepper faced consistent pressure all game long and was thrown out of his rhythm. Even better, this front seven also did a masterful job of containing Michael Vick in the NFC Championship.
Theoretically, it should be easier to get to Tom Brady than to Culpepper and Vick, but it won’t be that easy. Jim Johnson, Philadelphia’s defensive coordinator, will be sure to have a plan up his sleeve at any rate, which should center on disrupting Brady’s short passing game.
On the line, Jevon Kearse has proven to be worth every penny he’s been paid. From collecting 7 ½ sacks to playing spy on the elusive #7, he’s done it all. On the other end, Hugh Douglas experienced a renaissance in his return to Cheesesteak City. Was he a product of the Jim Johnson system? Who cares? Douglas has provided Kearse with a complementary bookend and combined with Kearse and Philly’s three interior lineman (Corey Simon, Darwin Walker and Sam Rayburn) for 26 ½ sacks. Expect to see the Eagles try to get to Brady.
Like Douglas, Jeremiah Trotter hit the comeback trail after a disappointing stint with the Washington Redskins. He’s played like an All-Pro at middle linebacker, and he’s far from alone. Dhani Jones and Mark Simoneau have been solid, if not spectacular, on the outside.
I call it a split. With the defensive line, I expect to see more production out of Kearse and company. The New England linebackers, in contrast, have been here and done this job before and I think they’ll get it done yet again.
SECONDARY
To be sure, the Patriots have done an admirable job patching their secondary together, minus Ty Law and Tyrone Poole. On paper or what I suspect I’ll see on the field, though, this matchup isn’t really close at all.
If Law were healthy, perhaps it’d be a little more even. I’d still tip the scale in Philadelphia’s favor, though, because you just cannot ignore three All-Pros who’ve stepped their games up another notch in the postseason.
We’ll start with Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown. In preseason, no one was certain how these two would respond to taking over the cornerback duties from Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent. Throughout 2004, Sheppard and Brown were better than Taylor and Vincent by a very convincing margin. Sheppard’s efforts were even rewarded with a Pro Bowl nod, but he had company.
Both safeties, Brian Dawkins and Michael Lewis, also earned Pro Bowl honors. Dawkins, in particular, did a little bit of everything through the course of the season, and his crushing (and oh-so-clean) blow on Alge Crumpler in the NFC Championship is only one example of his abilities. I noticed less of Lewis, but that was only because I was so captured by Dawkins’ play this postseason.
As a unit, I don’t remember seeing a secondary unit playing as brilliantly as these four did against Atlanta. Granted, the Falcons aren’t a great passing team, but it was amazing to watch. Remember, too, that they intercepted Daunte Culpepper three times.
For all of the accolades that Philly’s defensive backs have earned, we can’t forget about… oh, whatever their names are. It’s hard to say whether it’s more a testament to Bill Belichick’s uncanny ability to plug holes or the players’ responses to being thrust into starting roles, but it’s been impressive to watch in either case.
If there was a close call at any of the four positions, it’d be at strong safety. Rodney Harrison, not surprisingly, led the team in tackles and provides opponents with the potential for a very scary encounter if they dare to venture over the middle (scarier than Brian Dawkins, in my opinion). Eugene Wilson, solid as he was at free safety, doesn’t compare to Dawkins. The no-names, forthwith referred to as Randall Gay and Earthwind Moreland, have been considerably better than anyone expected them to be. Even Troy Brown joined the cause, morphing into football’s version of Craig Biggio and intercepting three passes in nickel duty.
Even with the receivers that the Patriots will likely be defending (FredEx, in all of his glory), Philadelphia takes this matchup easily.
KICKER/PUNTER
Patriots fans tend to think Adam Vinatieri is the greatest thing since baked beans, and they may be right. Here’s something they don’t know, though: David Akers is better.
Even though South Dakota’s favorite son paced all NFL kickers in total points with 141, Akers boomed more successful field goals from more than 40 yards than anyone else. He was an outstanding 17-of-21, compared to Vinatieri's 11-of-13 (which includes no 50-yarders) If it comes down to the wire, this might be the game where a new Mr. Clutch is born.
As far as punting is concerned, I give Dirk Johnson an ever-so-slight advantage over Josh Miller after looking at the numbers. Over the course of the season, they’ve been nearly identical… except for net average. This leads me to believe that Johnson probably gets two-tenths or so more of hangtime per punt, which is important to punt coverage. His net average is about 4 yards more than Miller’s (37.4 vs. 33.7), on ten more punts, which I interpret as more opportunities to be better. Close one, yes, but Philly gets this matchup, too.
*****
After taking everything into close account, I believe this will be the year that the Philadelphia Eagles will end their fans’ suffering and bring home a title. At first glance, it seemed like Philadelphia would have a tough time taking down the defending champions, but a harder look leads me to think that the New England Patriots are very vulnerable.
That Patriot team will be facing personnel unlike anything else they’ve seen in 2004: Brian Westbrook, Jevon Kearse, Hank Fraley, Brian Dawkins. Despite the critics who spelled doom for the Owens-less team, they thrived in the playoffs by relying on a quality running back and a tightly run defense that has shown it can do nearly everything.
After Sunday, you can erase the “nearly”. 45 years of frustration will come to a close, and Donovan McNabb and company will be the champions of Super Bowl XXXIX. Philadelphia wins, 27-21.
Players to watch: Greg Lewis, L.J. Smith, Daniel Graham, Brandon Gorin and Matt Light
