Bird flu has entered the European borders, and says Britain is at risk.......
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Bird flu has entered the European borders, and says Britain is at risk.......
*puts down leg of chicken*
When and where did you find it out? I thought they'd managed to get rid of it
its all over the news, America isnt in the story, but the outbreak is all over turkey, and it could travel to British if were not careful.
And it, atm is still an animal virus, but its could spread to People as well.
This is bad.....
Yeeeeeeah, i've heard about that.
Oh, it can already hit people. Fatality rates are stunning- right up there with Spanish Influenza. This stuff could quite possibly kill 1 in 10 people who catch it. Which, if it hits a couple metropolitan areas, means it can eventually infect every developed nation in the world. Figure that there are a few immune to it, and a few that'll get EXTREMELY lucky, the conservative estimates are that this "bird flu" could kill hundreds of millions of people.
On the plus side, it frees up some real estate. It'll also be a natural self-correction of the human race. No matter what we claim, we're not yet above natural law. All-in-all, we're getting screwed in this deal.
This is one of those things where it is better to try and kill all the birds at risk and take the finacial hit. Don't let stuff develop. Kill before it gets to that point.
Why does udsuna make me feel like the plague is coming again?
Bird Flu? Whats the effects? Can one die from it? UK? Crap!
Minor remedies for the bird flu have been developed, The UK was bracing itself since last year.
Pfft... you mean the Bubonic plague? Outbreaks of Bubonic happen occasionally in every city in the world- rarely even make the news. That stuff was child's play in comparison. Ask yourself what would happen if the common cold was capable of killing. Everyone who ends up having to take more than two days off from school or work, instead ends up dead. That's what this bird flu is capable off. Airborn, fast-acting, deadly. But NOT so fast acting that it kills before it has a chance to spread, and not so deadly that it knocks it's hosts out of commission before they expose others to it.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Summoner of Leviathan
As for symptoms: exactly like normal influenza (aka- flu virus). Not the current weak strains, but the REAL influenza strains. I'm running off the Spanish Influenza model, which is about what this bird flu looks like- it could be a little less deadly (which might be worse, it means many millions more could be exposed before the disease runs its course and burns out). And it could be slightly more deadly (harsh as it sounds: this could be a blessing, it'll burn out faster, sparing millions from exposure in the first place.)
First day: no symptoms, not yet contagious.
Second day: contageous, a little tired feeling.
Third day: REALLY sick, headaches, nausia, throwing up, fever all that jazz.
Fourth day: even more sick, same symptoms, however you're weak from the strain of the prior day.
Fifth day: if it's anything like other high-power flu strains, the fever would probably cause mild hallucinations by now- the weakest of those infected (young children and the elderly) are in real danger, and some may already have died.
Sixth day: now many adults are in danger- those more vulnerable due to other illnesses, at least, are at serious risk.
Seventh day: if you're healthy, and lucky, the fever should break, if not: you're probably going to die.
Eighth day: if you made it this far, you've survived the flu, and should be forever immune to its effects in the future. It'll probably be several more days before you've recovered: it's been almost a week since you've been able to keep any food down, and you've probably been losing almost all of your water to sweating. And you're almost surely still contagious. For a couple days or so, at least.
I meant it the sense that a good porportion of humanity could be killed.
hope this dosent turn into another foot and mouth.......
On THAT, we most avidly agree. Although the Bubonic's 1/3 of the population of Europe record will probably not be reached. It has an edge, of sorts: you can only catch a strain of flu once. After that, you're immune until a sufficiently mutated version finds you, and even then you're more resistant- which is why current flu's are little more than an annoyance. Bubonic is a bacteria- it can infect the same host many, many times over. Eventually it WILL get you, if you're constantly getting repeat exposure. And since it's rats and fleas that are carriers, you get PLENTLY of exposure. At least, in medieval europe where people didn't bathe.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Summoner of Leviathan
I get the impression you're over reacting. http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=2084042005 Over reacting for now anyway.
I doubt it will be that big of a deal, but it's still a good idea to prepare.
If they just took their goddamn time and contained this in Vietnam or wherever, this wouldnt be such a big problem. Those farmers didnt want to lose their chickens, and now the whole world is at risk. That is incredible.
I wouldn't worry too much about it until it grows a bit more in proportion. udsuna has just been reading The Stand too much.
Actually, I was thinking Outbreak was a more appropriate parallel. The Stand SUCKED. And I'm making a cautious estimate. All it takes to put the entire species in peril is three ingredients-
1 something new and unpredictable (check).
2 incompetent leadership (BIG check)
3 irresponsible citizens (check and understatement of the century)
Theres not definate it's going to hit the UK but it's smart to brace ourselves, I'm getting a flu jab for once coz no way I'm putting up with an extremely bad flu.
An a for effort, but I doubt it'll work.Quote:
Originally Posted by edczxcvbnm
Shoden: I'll get a flu shot when it reaches America. Which if we're lucky, won't be for a while. But we're not, so I might as well get a doctor's appointment soon.
Uh.... guys.... flu shots aren't going to work. Unless they develop one specifically for THIS virus, it won't help at all. Which is what they're trying to do right now.... if normal rates are any indication, it'll be ready about this time next decade.
Sounds like media scare tactics to me. I'm not too worried.
lol Europe wasn't the entire world. though. You would have to add in a population of 80 million. During those times.Quote:
Originally Posted by udsuna
Probaly 50 million. I'm talking Earth's population of humans of course :)
Man anyway this bird flu htingy is bad.. Its sut a kick int he ball sack right there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by udsuna
Wow... All I can say is I wish I had only be sick for a total of 10-12(you did say several more days) days from an illness. Took me from mid december(or november don't recall which) to the end of April/Early May to shake what the doctor told me was Bronchitis. Ughh... that was awful. Actually many of the symptoms you listed I had. I threw up more those few months then in my life all added up. Not to mention being feverous for months on end is awful. I am still of the opinion that it was either a real bad case of Bronchitis or something worse.
Anyways this could really suck. I sure hope if it does spread it won't be that bad.
Eh, if I'm gonna die might as well die from something crazy.
And I liked The Stand >:O!
Yeah, I didn't think The Stand sucked at all.
I thought The Stand was excellent.
From the information on this site, I'm not too worried about the bird flu because it doesn't look like it's easy to catch, unless you're in contact with an infected bird.
How Avian Flu Spreads from Birds to People
It is important not to confuse human cases of avian influenza with cases of human influenza. Human influenza ("the flu") is a common respiratory disease that spreads easily and rapidly from person to person. Although different strains of avian flu virus circulate year-round among birds, the virus does not usually spread to people.
In rare instances, however, people do contract avian flu. The exact mode of transmission from birds to people is not known, but most human cases of avian flu have been traced to direct contact with live infected birds or their droppings. The scientific evidence to date shows that avian flu virus does not spread easily or rapidly from one person to another.
People are more woried about the chance of the virus mutating so that can easily spread from human to human.Quote:
Originally Posted by Leeza
It doesn't really matter if it hits Europe or not from a direct Human perspective. Most transportation throughout the world is now so easy that a form which can be transmitted from person to person would be a massive danger wherever it started. However, it should still be contained because the fewer places it exists in - ie the fewer number of birds infected - the lower the chances of it mutating.
But still, this sounds like a scare tactic to me. I don't think it terribly likely to mutate in the exact manner required, but hey, maybe it will. I'm not terribly worried though. I'll worry about it when it actually starts happening.
That's the way I heard it too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rengori
General consensus is that the virus is on its way toward mutating into a form that's readily spreadable from human-to-human. Statistically, we're overdue for another global pandemic; with modern travel and trade going as fast as they are, any illness will be able to spread very rapidly once its in circulation. This was demonstrated by SARS which, while not fatal in over 95% of cases, was a brand-new disease that spread from country to country with remarkable speed.
Quarantine, border control and - if necessary - medical isolation are the best ways to approach an avian flu epidemic. Most countries have laws in place that'll allow this, so hopefully outbreaks can be contained, once they begin. It's probably a matter of "when" rather than "if", so the best we can do is hope for adequate preparation and a sufficiently speedy response.
It's already capable of infecting humans with fair ease. Not too easily, but it's just a matter of time before that change occures. Some strains are now touch and close-quarters communicable (aka- you can spread it by coughing on someone). As opposed to less than a year ago when you practically had to bite the heads off of infected chickens. At this rate, we get another six months to a year, and it'll spread as quickly as any human influenza virus.
EDIT: and that assumes we don't have some psychotic terrorist grab ahold of the stuff and play with it. It's not too hard to "breed" virus strains to merge their abilities. Doing it without accidentally exposing yourself: that's the trick.
So we've put the mutation on a timeline now, eh?
I just don't see the point in worrying about it. Don't touch bird poopie and you should be a-okay.
People a LOT smarter than we, the most world-renowned experts in the field of viral pathology, all agree that the avian flu is going to be a pandemic if not contained immediately. They were obviously fairly persuasive, they managed to get the only unanimous legislation pushed through congress that wasn't directly related to war or disaster issues.
I take that seriously.... our last unanimous push through congress was based off the Tsunami, and before that 9/11. The Katrina and earthquake events are still going through, but they'll probably also be unanimous. It seems to take "death on a mass scale" to get politicians to agree on anything.
It has taken fairly long from the bird-flu strain to reach Turkey from China. There's probably a good chance that they could contain it yet from western Europe.
I remember during the foot-and-mouth crisis that Ireland managed (for the most part) to prevent the disease from entering the 26-country Republic, apart from a farm in County Louth.
I think that we should be worried, but with care and prudence it can be contained.
the virus itself is extremely close to the virus which caused spanish flu. that is worrying to say the least.
what's worse is tamiflu. for those who don't know tamiflu is the flu vaccine all the old folks get when winter comes. it is the vaccine currently being stockpiled across the world. it's a vaccine which is untested against the virus and could turn out to be totally useless. but it's the only line of defence we have.
tamiflu is patented by one company. they own the rights to that vaccine. and obviously they are loving this. the world in panic from an outbreak on the scale of the spanish flu. and only them being paid for it. wonder how they're stocks are doing? they refuse to let go of the patent to allow people to produce this vaccine.
so as the world faces a pandemic one company seizes this opportunity to make a mint.
how sad.
I am now agaisnt Roche, they have the formula for the curing drug, and will not let anyone else use it as they claim it as that everyone does not know how to use the drug well and that they have worked on it for 5 years. I think its selfish. Cant be that hard.....
Im gonna go out on a limb and guess its not that simple.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreddz
It probabli isnt, but C4 says that Roche are being littleQuote:
Originally Posted by Destai
s baisically.....
seems as if it won't infect so many humans unless it mutates but the chances arent extremely high.
Drugs designed for human flu are said to be effective.
Either Europe will contain it or it goes naturally.
a girl in Turkey has actually caught symptons which they believe is a cause of the bird flu, I think shes ok now, but Thats why its becoming a big deal....
Well the more people get the flu jab the less chance it has to mutate.
its not a jab for Bird flu.....
but it's a jab for influenza, rubbing out a way of it mutating.
if someone has flu and catches Avian flu it mutates, but more people who get jabs for normal flu than avian flu won't be oh so much of a bother, according to the information from the earlier posted site.
True, but it'll reduce the chances of catching it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreddz
EDIT: Damn, Shoden beat me.
well at least someone else can see it from my point of view lol.
no, a jab does nothing more.....
It vaccinates against human influenza untill it mutates. If people don't get human flu then Bird flu's chances of infecting and mutating drop.
We don't have a vaccine that could even slow Spanish Influenza. It's so different that the same vaccines aren't going to work. You might as well just give people shots for the measels and polio, for all the good a flu shot is against this stuff. You don't realize how specific it is.... flu shots are inneffective against more than half of the standard human flu strains. And absolutely useless against the exotic flu strains like Spanish and Avian. It reminds me of the "duck and cover" theory for dealing with atomic warfare.
Watching it on the news right now- it's in Romania, now. Appearantly, they're gassing and burning chickens. However, it's being spread by wild birds in the recent migrations. Which is a very bad thing. But it seems this strain can't hop from human to human, so we're lucky. It's also not as deadly, thus far no europeans infected have died- which would suggest that a well-fed healthy individual with medical attention is quite capable of fighting this one. They seem confident that they can stop the outbreak before it spreads any further.
But if you're vaccinated against normal flu then chances are lower of human to human.
Well we can only hope so.
By the way there is a vaccine against Polio, Measels and german measels.
the MMR which is recieved twice and some spray for Polio
Normally I'd make a joke about this, but that might result in an EotW ban.Quote:
Appearantly, they're gassing and burning chickens.
Let's hope so, you people are starting to give me Bird Flu jitters now.Quote:
Originally Posted by udsuna
I know we have polio and measels vaccines. I was talking about effectiveness vs. this flu, because those shots would be about as helpful as the standard flu shot.
You mean something along the lines of a "poultry holocaust"? Crossed my mind, too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rengori
What I'm saying is vaccinating against normal flu stops you getting normal flu so it reduces Avian flu's mutation chances.
It can be treated but it isn't easy.
If it's got low chance of mutation we're fine in a way..
avian flu has a 50% death rate.
mutation is certain. it may not be for a few years but viruses don't really disappear (there are cases like the spanish flu and plague which do). but at one point the mutation will take place.
and by that time Wouldn't you think Scientists would of learned to pwn it?
not really. haven't fund a cure for normal flu what chance do they have of finding a cure for this one? treatments for diseases aren't ten a penny. they are slow to develop and normally only half effective.
5 years is enough time wouldn't you think?
It'll eventually tire out then come back again years later or scientists will just contain secure and eventually find a cure or vaccine.
Ive heard about this bird flu and I belive udsuna is being a little overdramatic. And the stuff there stockpileing does have some sort of affect, why else would they be stockpileing it?
Excuse my spelling of stockpileing I cant be bothered to look in a dictionery and excuse my spelling of dictionery too.
five years isn't enough to find a vaccine or cure. meningitis took far longer, and look at the cold and HIV, polio took years, smallpox was by chance and refining that took a long time.
the stockpiled tamiflu is totally untested. they have no idea whether this stuff will work or not. but is all we have.
Technology is much better now, it is possible we will run into a vaccine and pwn Avian Flu in the next five years. Note: Possible.
exactly. Back then they didn't have the medical knowledge and took them far longer, with modern stuff and that 5 years is more than they need.
cuba took far longer to create the men c vaccine, HIV has taken the past 20 years, the common cold is still being looked for, it's not quick and it's not easy.
It depends on quantity of researchers and the disease itself.
Considering how big this is, there'll probably be a lot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Shoden
yeah but it'll still take a while but 5 years is enough time.
Has someone posted this already? Well anyway, Its been found in Romania. The same found in, what was it? Turkey?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Evan
There is no dout ts going to hit here,remember folks wash your hands before you eat, it can reduce chances of catching it.
They've yet to ever find a cure for any flu virus. Ever. They have vaccines that give you a better fighting chance, and at our current rates, we could probably produce enough to insulate 1/10th of the western world. Most of that in europe, because they have a better responce structure to this stuff. America'd be lucky to get any bettter than a 5% innoculation rate. And that would be only if they already had a functioning vaccine and all they needed to do was produce it. Since they've been working on Spanish Influenza vaccines for the last 20 years (and still don't have one)- I don't exactly have faith in the system.
the actual virus could be in britain for christmas. migrating birds will carry it. spring could be a pretty bad time too. but we are almost certainly screwed here.
I got over the bird flu jitters, and now I think you guys are just being a little paranoid. Just stay away from birds and anyone who looks like they have bird flu.
yeah cos you can spot them a mile off. first time they catch it they turn green. if we could see in green back in 1918 we would have been fine. but everything was in black and white then.
I don't think that was neccesary Cloud 9.
keep your hygeine up, stay away from wild birds and avoid people you don't know. Thats what Rengori tried to say.
Why worry?
.opt
It's rare ftom human to human so kep hygeinic, keep away from wild birds and you're set.
Only until the virus mutates to the point where it's readily communicable from human-to-human. That is what's got everyone worried.Quote:
Originally Posted by Shoden
Fortunately, the human-to-human strain(s) are still over in asia. Not so good a thing for the Chinese, but it's a load off my mind. If that hasn't changed by winter, we'll be safe until spring. Of course, said change could occur either from mutation of this strain, or the migration of the more infectious version. In either case, we'll know by the end of the fall season.
I've read that it's estimated to hit next winter.
By then there'll be a vaccine, the avian flu for human to human wouldn't reach the Uk unless one nearby mutates.
Now I wish I paid attention to this medical crap.
No, there almost certainly will not be a vaccine. Tamiflu can't do ANYTHING to the avian flu. Vaccinations for a disease work equally well in every species capable of catching the disease in the first place (we actually make vaccines by infecting animals with the disease, and extracting the antibodies)- and the testing on animals is conclusive: no detectable effect. Meaning: tamiflu useless. The rate for which to produce an effective vaccination is many, many years. Some of the deadliest STILL have no treatment.
The current quarentine systems are all based upon the lessons learned in the wake of Spanish Influenza, a disease that killed millions in an era when travel was slower and less frequent, and population centers were less dence. A disease that killed without discretion, pity, or any sign of slowing. A disease that is still hybernating out there in mass graves where hundreds of human bodies were dumped and buried. Burned, but not well enough. A disease that some of the best scientists in the world have been trying to beat for the last three decades. And a disease that is all too closely related to this avian flu.
Virii are like all other species- the more food, the better. Spanish Influenza was devestating back then, it would be unstopable now. And the avian flu strains capable of ready human-to-human infection, will be just as powerful. There is no way to "over-react" to this disease, it's a nightmare scenario. Why do you think that biological warfare is considered as bad, if not worse, than nuclear? It's because nature is a more skilled killer than we, and these types of flu are amongst the finest of her tools.
EDIT: Finally found the site I was looking for.
http://www.zkea.com/archives/archive02002.html
And in the process, this surprisingly good (appearantly college) essay.
http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/
Tamiflu vaccinates against flu right.
Vaccinating against flu reduces the chances of mutation, By the time a human strain comes around in the UK there'll be treatments to minimize the effects, with drugs and stuff it'll be like having a very bad flu.
The disease kills through pneumonia so if it comes round to that then scientists and doctors have something to work from.
The less chance it has of mutating a lower death toll.
They cannot contain the disease as easily because of bird rights acts.
Not quite. Tamiflu works by exposing us to a genetic marker found in almost every form of flu. Our immune system learns the genetic marker, and kills everything with it. Neither Spanish Influenza, nor this Avian flu that's so horrible, have that marker. This is why both of them are so deadly: our immunology has never seen anything like them, so we have to start from scratch. Other flu viral strains: we're highly resistant to, because we've been learning their weaknesses since the womb. (yes, womb, we start our immunities by copying our mother's). And look how much harm even a standard flu can deal.Quote:
Originally Posted by Shoden
But, Spanish and Avian flu, we don't have any preperation. It's the immunological equivilant to a total war begun with surprise and superior numbers. By the time we start fighting back, we're too weak to be effective.
And, if anything, using Tamiflu to block these virii is dangerous. Even if one of these influenza strains manages to become epidemic, there's always a chance that they'll be choked out by another virus that we CAN beat. If the tamiflu innoculations are there, it makes it harder for competing flu strains that might outperform the Avian strain.
Dont have a cold or a flu, then youve got no problems, its as simple as that. Also its been said its perfectly safe to eat poultry. No long paragraph to explain. thats all the details you need to know.
Would the vaccinations serve to be a catalyst for mutation? The thought crossed my mind but I'm not too knowledgeable of medical manners so I really don't know myself.
The Vaccination just increases the chance of not catching a cold/flu (supposedly), i dont need it.
Well, the Avian flu would ignore our current innoculations. Meaning, simply, that it won't do anything to the virus, so the virus will have no need to mutate against it. No natural selection, so no catalyst.
And, yes, cooked chicken is perfectly safe. Flu virii are notoriously easy to kill with heat. Anything over 200 degrees for 15 minutes, should destroy the stuff. E-coli and Somanella, however, are far more resilliant (300+ for at least half an hour). And we cook our meat with the intent to kill those diseases.
Oh, Russ, it's not possible to avoid any airborn influenza. You WILL be exposed, no escape from that except death. Or living in a bio-enclosure for the rest of your life. It's only a matter of if you're actually vulnerable enough that the virus can successfully infect you before it dies.
I didnt say i was vunrable to any airborn subtances, im just saying, if you live in the right atmosphere and conditions, the stronger you are to fight it off. If your the type of person to stand in the rain everytime there is rain or in cold places all the time then that person better watch out because they are going to find it hard to avoid Bird Flu.
But the Avian flu is much like the Spanish flu- in fact, they're probably directly related strains- and Spanish Influenza killed more healthy adults (ages 20 to 40) than it did children and elderly. It's odd, but people with weak immune systems seem to hold up better. Something I did not know until about 2 hours ago, when I found those links and read some of the material on them.
It also prefers warm climates. Most virii do. The idea that cold weather causes colds- a complete myth (except pnuemonia and hypothermia, those are very much about the cold). But Coxis (common cold) and Influenza prefer warm places. The reason you get more sick during the winter, is because typically in the winter you spend more time in close contact with a greater number of people. School, for one, comes to mind.
Yeah well, i live in Wales, nothing ever happens here so im good lol
For your sake, I certainly hope so.
It'll die out in Europe, it originated in China defer Climate differences and the winter, but still we're pretty much screwed as Udsuna is trying to make us accept.
These tamiflu Drugs are meantto reduce the effects of the virus and just make takers experience a bad flu.
Id rather just be in my boiling hot bedroom, sweating like a monkey on crack, than to do that.
What Shoden's trying to say is that doing nothing's not going to help.
okay lets geta few things correct here.
there is no human-to-human virius. not in china. not anywhere. avian flu right now is passing between bird and human. that is all. what can happen though is if avian flu infects someone with normal human flu the virus's can mix. kinda like paint. in which case you may end up with a virus with the 50% death count of avian flu and the ease of passing as human flu. about then we are screwed.
tamiflu protects against normal flu in the same way any other vaccine does. it exposes your immune system to a small amount of the virus so that the human system remembers it can react against it. this does not mean you can not not be infected by the virus you are immunise against. it means it will be dealt with quickly by the body and you probably won't show any symptoms. but your body will still carry the virus for the infected time. also while you are being immunised you will have the virus in your system.
tamiflu has not been tested against avian flu. we don't know if it will vaccinate against it. or if it will be a massive waste of money. we have no idea. but it is the only defence. and we are not vaccinating people now to prevent viral mixes. we will vaccinate certain people when the virus hits. it is not being used to prevent the mutation.
Not yet, there's still a year for scientists to develop something else, not exeactly a full vaccine but probably tablets or medicines that reduce the effects, that's what'll come before the cures or vaccines (and what I've been trying to say for the whole thread)
yeah cos 50 years of research into simple stuff like the cold has done that.......
we don't have a real cure for a whole wealth of nasty diseases. and we've been looking into them for years and years now.
the spanish flu wiped out about 40 million people in a year. it's fast and horribly effecient. more so than any scientist group.
but back then there wasn't half as many things such as drugs, medicine and stuff.
I'm not saying there's going to vaccines or cures in a years time but there'll probably be drugs to reduce the effects.
back when? the common cold is being researched now, same with aids. there's experiments on all kinds of diseases like yellow fever, whooping cough. this is now. not 50 years ago. we do not have any idea how to cure many diseases that we have tried for decades. we are not going to suddenly come up with a new research method when this strikes to make the process than the slow trial and error approach that is used today.
Fact is, Cloud is right. Unless a miracle occurs (And they have occured, but they're not common enough for us to put any stock in them.), if this mutates into a human-to-human transmittable virus it's going to hit us hard. We're not going to find a cure for it unless we're very, very lucky. AIDS and HIV have taken a good couple of decades, and we've still not cured them; we merely are able to mitigate their effects somewhat nowadays. Same goes for cancer, which we're slowly working towards. Diabetes, same story. We would almost certanly get a cure or vaccine given enough time; a year is not enough time. Twenty years might be. Fifty, or even a hundred, would be a safer bet.
All we have now are Tylenol and anti-nausea tablets. Better than nothing, yes. A cure, far from it.
even if we were faced with spanish flu right now. given we know more about that virus (not alot as we never get a specimen and the one we do have is from a dug up body). we would still be royally screwed. we are talking a highly infectious, rapid and deadly disease.
normal human flu spreads fast and very effectively. avian flu holds a 50% mortality rate.
think about how many of your friends caught flu after you did. half of them would die. that is the serverity of this. it's not contanible like sars.
Yipee! Perhaps I have a chance. Guess a weak immune system isn't always a bad thing... but why would that be is my primary question?Quote:
Originally Posted by udsuna
As for the cure finding issue... I aggree with Cloud, MILF, and Udsuna(cheer! when else do we all aggree on something?).
a few facts about sars, spanish flu and h5n1.
sars as a disease was crap. it wasn't highly contagious compared to flu. it wasn't massively deadly. in fact normal pneumonia has a mortality rate of 70%. sars had a rate of 15%. normal flu is 0.6%. it was however resistant to all treatments. it infected 8069 of whom 779 died.
spanish flu was an absolute bitch by comparison. spanish flu infected 20% of the worlds population. it killed between an eighth and a quarter of them. that's between 2.5% and 5% of the worlds population. it wiped out entire communities and villages in some parts. in 6 months it killed 25 million. it is thought it could be 4x that amount. 17 million died in india alone with a mortality rate there of 5%. the indian army lost 22% of it's troops. 28% of the us population was infected. between 500,0o0 and 675,000 died there. 200,000 in britain and 400,000 in france. fiji had 14% of it's population wiped out in 2 weeks. and 22% of western samoa.
quarantines and restrictions on public gatherings were put in place and failed. even were mortality was low life was brought to a standstill as many were sick.
it killed more people in 25 weeks than aids killed in 25 years. it vanished within 18 months and it's cause was not determined until a few years ago.
avian flu. has a mortality rate of 50%. and it now infects pigs. this is important as pigs can carry the human flu so allowing mutation in pigs as well as humans. it can then be past from the pig to human and then out from there. it also infects lions and tigers but that isn't important. the fact that it now infects pigs is.
h5n1 is the same virus that appeared in hong kong in 1997 and killed 6 out of 18 people. the new strain appears to be stronger than that. it is reported that up to 125 may have been killed in china but the government denies this. but they denied sars ever happened too. if this is true the death rate could be about 75%.
it is thought right now that the only way to catch the disease is by contact with infected chickens or infected surfaces. cats are thought to be able to carry it too. it is spreading very fact among poultry in asia. it is thought human to human cases have been found in vietnam and jakarta. the people infected in some cases have had no contact with chickens. a family and nurses who cared for them died in thailand.
it would seem that a human-to-human virus does now exist. whether it has been contained or is in the migrating birds is yet to be seen.
it has developed some odd traits. it's mortality rate in vietnam has dropped from 65% to 35%. this is actually bad. dead people don't spread disease too well. the longer and more people survive then the higher chances of further infection. spanish flu only had a 5% mortality rate yet was an absolute bitch.
it seems i was wrong about tamiflu. it is not the flu vaccine. it is an anti-viral.
avin flu is a problem for one reason. we have never really had it before. out bodies aren't used to it and so can't fight it effectively.
Thank you people. Getting tired of being accused of being alarmist, so it's nice to see independent verification. As if the CDC and all medical experts who know anything about this subject and stated an opinion weren't good enough a basis for my statements. Never mind the fact that I'm quoting and stating the most conservative of estimates. READ about Spanish Influenza, then remember Avian is even more deadly.
Oh, and I have ABSOLUTELY no idea why Spanish Influenza tended to kill healthier victims. People smarter and more educated than I have studied the disease for years, and not answered that question. No other virus I've ever heard of works like that. But there's every reason to believe that this Avian flu (a close genetic relative) would have the same tendancy.
I'm leaving this thread, before more
You're all so negative and face what you think from facts to make up the future.
Who knows Past present future. There could be a breakthrough any second and don't go round giving odds or anything but a chance is a chance.
Who knows it might flop or we could all die as cloud 9 is saying.
some of you are sounding like you WANT to die and everyone else too.
I hope I don't get it TT_TT I really hope they find a cure soon
Its probably hard to accept, the main West has not had such a dangerous outbreak in a long time and its hard to accept, moreso among the young, we may have money, technology, but we are still at risk, people smarter then we have been following this for some time.
Shoden it isn't so much that I am an alarmist or want to die. It is that I like to face the facts. The fact is it is highly unlikely that a cure will be developed in any quick amount of time. In other words if it hits it will hit before the cure(unless we are lucky). However, statistics I have seen go against that. Not impossible just unlikely.Quote:
Originally Posted by ShodenI'm leaving this thread, before morelike that is made.
You're all so negative and face what you think from facts to make up the future.
Who knows Past present future. There could be a breakthrough any second and don't go round giving odds or anything but a chance is a chance.
Who knows it might flop or we could all die as cloud 9 is saying.
some of you are sounding like you WANT to die and everyone else too.
I actually am not super worried about it. I, myself, can't do much to help. However, I don't like it when people are too hopeful. There are TWO extremes. not just one. Your side and the side where we experience worldwide trauma and that our population goes *splat* are both extreme sides. Likely it will fall somewhere inbetween, though personally if one of the extremes happens I see it as slightly more likely for the nasty one to occur... medical science isn't well known to be super fast in coming up with cures.
Well, the two actual extremes are "nothing happens" and "total destruction of human civilization"- so, a few million is pretty much in the range of average. And considering how devestating Spanish Influenza was.... seriously, have ANY of you read the nice little links I provided?
spanish flu did not effect the healthy. most of it's victims were soldiers. and they weren't the picture of health. on rations, stuck in trenches being shelled and under continous stress and lack of sleep. soldiers died at a mortality rate of around a third.
but these people were very open to infection. and they were in large groups.
also spanish flu was not spanish. it was from america (not asia as is commonly thought) and it is in discussion whether or not it came from pigs or chickens. but the farm it came from can be traced.
this disease is going to be massive. it will kill millions. but there is nothing we can really do about it. don't worry just accept it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by udsuna
Ok, point taken, those are the definate extremes... I was viewing more as the extremes were a group of actions.Such as on the nothing happens side there would also be "we find a cure within days/weeks/months after it is capable of easily spreading amoung poeple. Where as annilation side is massive deaths(btw I don't think it is improbable for millions to die, but I got the impression somewhere in this thread that it was WORSE then that(upwards of over a billion or so is the impression I recieved... maybe I read in too much)).
edit- yep I read in somewhere... that or I read it when I was in a bad mood(quite possible)... However, no one from what I have seen in review said anything that harsh.... ah well.
Well, we're going to lose about 25-30%, if not more, of everyone infected. But you can figure only 1 in 10 or so infected (which is about what Spanish Influenza did). Spanish flu really is the ONLY parallel we have. If we're lucky, Avian won't be worse. It's certainly a stronger, more advanced, virus. But the mutations that make it more virulant amongst humans MIGHT make it somewhat less deadly.
Now, if it manages to infect the entire human race, yes, it would kill billions.
urbanisation is stronger now than it was back then. in a way it was contained by the war and lack of technology. now with air travel being common and growth of population in the developing world we are more succeptible to this.
Yes, but Spanish Influenza only (detectably) infected 1/10th of those who were certainly exposed. As in family members living in the households of others who developed symptoms. Or hospital staff and such. It'll definately affect a larger chunk of our population, we have more people and they're closer together. More exposure, so more infection, so more death.
Oh, and Cloud....
It is infecting human-to-human. Has been for at least six months. Not the version in Europe, it seems, but one of the asian strains has infected hospital staff taking care of infected patients. So it doesn't have nearly the infection rates, maybe it isn't even airborn, but it is happening.
The Spanish flu was just as deadly to adults in non-combative countries during WW1. It killed 20-40 year olds at LEAST 3 times over more often than it did children and elderly combined. Yes, the countries that were in the war, they suffered far worse. But it was just as good at affecting Asia and South America, who had almost no activity in WW1.
And no medical expert in the world has ever said with any certainty where it came from. Most think it was an asian virus, but it's rediculous to believe that with certainty. Some assert middle-eastern, based on it's spread rates, and that might be possible. The first major explosions were post-war America and Europe, but the "natural" spread started earlier than that.
Theres no doubt, Transport of today will spread illness faster. the only major way to travel in years past was by Ocean Liners (What was there golden age.) It took over a week to get to America in that time any mass illnesses on bored would be detected, even back then they had high health standards where most 2nd and 3rd class passengers had to pass health inspection, if the 3rd class broke the quarentine (By leaving third class) the whole ship would be stopped when it arrived at America (Or any port really) for full health inspection, this is something not done on air travel. Planes can now cross the globe in hours, more often, this would spread illness far worse these days.
first reported case and probably source of spanish flu was in fort riley, haskel county, kansas. the mutation between swine flu and avian flu is believed to have happened there (they bred their own animals).
and remember asia was also at war during the time, india, china and japan were all at war. and the only sizeable place not to be affected was some town in brazil.
and i did already say that the virus can be transmitted by humans now.
When it comes here we will just have to hope for the best, not much can defend against it.
Ok, I have read that some swiss manufacture of Tamiflu has proved to help with the avian flu, Depending on climate, terrain and preperations the avian flu could be like a nuke on England or just a Flu. Meaning if we get lucky it may flop because of terrain and climate which arent good mutation conditions.
Ok If you didn't understand it, The virus originated from the China/Asian area right? compare terrain, climate and other contrastable things. It mutated into this virus there, chances are lowered when it comes here it'll mutate but it also depends if another strain mutates and comes here.
disease isn't bound by terrain or even climate. it doesn't need to climb mountains and the virus will spend most of it's time at body temperature.
the swiss company you refer to would be roche. the only company with the copyright to produce tamiflu. they are for that reason right now the anti-christ.
tamiflu may proof to be useless. h5n1 is resitant to it. this as shown in vietnam when it was used. that is probably due to the change in the virus giving it a lower killing potential but longer infection time.
Terrain and climate affect breeding and mutation conditions not status.
mutation depends on the human body containing the virus. the virus does not mutate outside an infected body. therefore terrian will have no effect on mutation. and the mutation is done. human-human flu exists in vietnam. the vietnamese strain is also resistant to treatment and is liable to infect more while still keeping a very high mortality rate.
and breeding of the virus also occours within the body and so is totally seperate from the climate in the same way terrain is. unless you meant of the bodies containg it but i can't see the relevance of that.
I'm talking abou the virus itself but if that's true then Tamiflu vaccines will physically prevent a mutation then.
tamiflu is not a vaccine and does not prevent infection. it kills off certain types of flu. the h5n1 variant which has been seen in vietnam and is the dangerous one is resistant to it.
the mutation has already happened. and even if we contain that mutation the possibility of it mutating somewhere is not ruled out. it is in fact an almost certainty.thailand has reported cases of human-human transfer as well.
One question, why are you so intent on getting us to believe we're all doomed and going to die like usual?
not all of us. alot of us. spanish flu killed 5% of the world's population. we are looking at a virus far worse than that. one that spreads like flu, kills many people and is resistant to the only thing we have to fight it.
The way to fight is to reduce it's effects, stuff for sinuses and breathing.
If people get the Flu Jab then this virus has lesser chance and a delay of mutation.
It could mutate tomorrow It could mutate in 30 years who knows exactly when but it will happen, the H5N1 strain isn't human to human YET.
but it is human-human. the question is whether the human-human strain came with the migrating birds to europe.
There is no Human to Human In Europe the scare is that the current strain in Europe will Mutate.
it could well do. or at some point just be brought from vietnam and thailand. either by tourists, food or migrating birds.
also bird flu is a nasty little disease when it infects people. it infects the lungs which is very odd as lung cells normally aren't infected. it then makes your lungs bleed causing you to drown in your own bodily fluid.
Depends on luck, Immune system and infection severity.
Depending on medication you can take and stuff, not for the virus but the damage, that's one way.
all diseases depend on luck and your immune system (actually not really true with bird flu as it tends to infect the strongest).
spanish flu was the same. but i wouldn't shrug that off at all. it was a highly highly dangerous disease and what we are facing is stronger and breaks our usual lines of defence. no cure, no vaccine, no containment. it's a simple matter of hope. but it will hit and it will be big.
Thats what they THINK.
There are things to ease the damage but they won't reveal it, If Tamiflu won't do anything why are we stockpiling?
For the same reason they ran the "duck and cover" videos during the cold war. Not becuase there's a CHANCE IN HELL that it'll work (and no informed person believes otherwise), but because it'll keep people from panicking just a little bit longer. Admirable propaganda, it'll probably save lives in the long run. But Tamiflu, itself, is useless against this stuff.
SAID to be, they got something to battle it and this stuff maybe not Tamiflu, you never know what they maybe doing, It'll hit next winter my guess, hitting this winter, seriously doubt it.
while they're finding a cure in a year for this disease maybe on the way they'll find a cure for stuff like yellow fever, whooping cough, cholera, and other diseases we have spent the last 50 years trying to cure.
cures do not happen in a few years. it has never happened.
tamiflu is all we have. and it is useless against the human to human strain seen in vietnam.
avain flu kills the same way chlorine gas does. the only way to stop that damage is too stop the bleeding of the lungs. that is really hard to do and normally requires an operation.
You could try draining the lungs. But that won't work, as fluids will just continue building. If you can counter the part where the patient drowns on his own blood, they'll eventually just bleed to death. We don't have the resources to slow the disease enough. Besides, Influenza causes fevers that can kill all by themselves. Normal flu, when it has fatalities, is usually the fever that kills. Avian and Spanish won't cause too much worse a fever, it'll just last for days instead of hours. You can't keep a weakened body on anti-fever drugs that long without doing more harm than good.
There is ONE type drug that might work. They're used against HIV that kill viral infected cells. A virus enters a cell and starts over-riding the cell's function, making it produce more virii. This kills the cell, regardless. But these drugs COULD fight the infection that way. Only one problem- the price tag on this stuff is disturbingly high, and it will only slow the disease, not stop it.
No, in two years, we won't have a cure. In five, we won't have a cure. In 10, we MIGHT have a cure. In 20, we may have a cure. In 30, we'll probably have a cure. By then, of course, it won't matter much.
You're right on one thing- we'll probably be safe this winter. Cold weather weakens flu strains, they die in cold air. Actual death, not dormancy.
true but flu normally spreads in winter anyway. it spends most of it's time inside the body which is at a constant nice and warm temperature. the reason why things spread so well in winter is that we tend to group together. that's why we call get colds and flus at that time of year.
there is no gurantee of being safe this winter. we have no idea what strain is where. the human strain could now be in turkey, romania, russia and greece. we have no idea. and even if it is or even if it isn't. even if the migrating birds don't spread it here. some unlucky tourist, businessman, meat will.
The H5N1 was confirmed in Turkey but unsure about Romania.
There is still a few ways to slow down it's coming to our isles.
like what? shutting off the borders? build huge electric fences to stop the birds getting in? vaccinate everyone against normal flu to prevent any mutation. then vaccinate all pigs as well as they can catch human flu. then find enough tamiflu that everyone can be guranteed to be safe even though it is resistant.
only the human to human strain is resistant not the one in Europe.
it's not decided whether the one in europe is human-to human. and the human-to-human one is the only one that counts as far as the world is concerned.
Yeah I agree with Cloud. This world has gotten a lot smaller than oyu think./Quote:
Originally Posted by Cloud No.9
humans always make htis dumb stupid effect.
You still think the world is big in terms of traveling, but you always think that the planet doesn't have powerful force such as waether changes and climate shifts, and yes climate shifts are very fast and very violent. Kinda like the day after tomorrow but a bit longer actually more like a few decades or centuries.,but violent yes,and yes it can happen pretty rapidly.
Anyway back on topic. The world has gotten smaller. I can fly from OKC to the UK in about 20 to 30 hours(depending on transfers and blah blah blah).
Think how long it took back when my grandpa was my age.
It took weeks man. Now think back during the roman empire.
You'll die trying to cross the atlantic back then.
Colonial period took 8 to 12 weeks
now we can travel so damn fast so epidemics can spread faster. A lot faaster than you think it is.
The H5 strain has been discovered in a dead parrot in the UK.
it has now been confirmed in croatia. feel the noose tightening?
In croatia now and I heard its been confirmed int he UK.
Don't worry Cloud you'll live unless your one of htose 24 hours a day 7 days a week 365 days a year sickly person.
i'm confused by that last statement. bird flu doesn't disciminate between sick and well, young or old. spanish flu (h1n1 as compared to h5n1) attacked young males more than any other group, probably because of the war though but this doesn't explaing spain's high rate.
the bird flu in britain is of one parrot. and all they've confirmed is that is of the h5 type virus. the n1 has not been confirmed yet. but if it is it will be very interesting. the parrot is not from asia. it is from south america. they have not reported any incidences yet. has it now gone global?
almost every place has a strain of the Bird flu.
but not human variant h5n1. that is the issue.
Did they kill the parrot that has the flu?
it died. they then culled all other birds in the area too.
I get the feeling that not many people are reading the articles I so generously found and linked for.
Regardless, I think the safety measures in place might even be enough. Probably not, but maybe. Not the treatments.... those are beyond worthless.... but the quarantine methods are nicely done, and this disease is a very quick killer. If an infection can be contained in a city for about two weeks, it'll run its course. Killing hundreds of thousands, true, but not escaping into the rest of the world.
Hopefully.
quarantines failed for the spanish flu. and containing it in a city like london isn't going to help much either.
But, fortunately enough, Avian is less rapid in its spread. Meaning it'll have less chances to find another host before it dies. And since winter temperatures VASTLY limit the speed that flu spreads, we're safe this year.... and our quarantine methods will be as good as they have ever been by next year. We LEARNED from Spanish Influenza, we'll be ready (as ready as we can be, at least).
Still, chances are, it'll escape controls. And millions upon millions will die. But, there's still hope. Pragmatism is one thing, defeatism is quite another.
in all honesty cold does not affect flu as it spend most of it's life at body temperature. it spends a teeny tiny amount of time in the air. it nomrally comes out in saliva or mucus and directly into the other person. this can happen just through talking.
and i was under the impression that it will spread just as fast as spanish flu. it isn't spreading as fast now as it lacks the amount of vectors needed. after a certain point it will grow expotentially.
and i'm not defeatist i'm a realist.
All wrong. Flu is slowed in cold weather, killed in sub-zero.... which is why the Inuit (eskimo) can go there entire lives without ever once catching a viral or bacterial infection- assuming they avoid contact with us civilized types and our collection of diseases. Which says something, all things considered.
And Avian flu is far less virulent (thus far) than Spanish Influenza. Probably won't stay that way.
You're no realist, either. Realists would say "ok, this will be ugly, let's fight it however we can even if it might not help much". You say "ok, we're boned, who wants lunch?"
spanish flu was avain flu. it was h1n1.
and yes flu like all cell growth in slowed in cold temperature. but is irrelavant as flu spends most of it's live in the human body which is nice and warm and cosy. inuits don't get it as it is pretty sterile. but as spanish flu showed once they have something they are still succeptible. spanish flu wiped out whole eskimo villages.
and we are screwed and there is very little we can do about it. it's a pattern that happens every so often. some plague comes up which is new and deadly. it kills lots of folk. then goes away. it's a little population gap.
it's been said that a vaccine has been made and will be properly announced within the next few days or something like that.
The Parrot from south AMERICA had the H5 N1 strain, if it's true a vaccine has been discovered then that will be stockpiled aswell.
i would be very suprised any type of vaccine had been discovered in this amount of time. even testing for that kind of stuff takes at least a year.
It has been confirmed I don't know what it does but it said it was a vaccination aswell as vulnrable people would be 13-40 year olds.
can i see a link?
I didn't find it on the net, I heard it on sky news and read it in News of the world.
It maybe on the net you have to look for it, If I could I would scan the article for you.
But nooo I aint allowed to touch the scanner because I might break it...
i checked on both sky news and news of the world websites and found nothing. i won't be able to get news of the world up here neither sky as i'm living in halls.
Tell ya what I might be able to sneak in a scan shhhh.
here it is.
I don't see why everyone is worrying so much... Sure, bird flu could kill us. But, we could outside tomorrow and get knocked down by a bus and die.
No point in worrying about something that could happen, and there could be a big chance that it will. Live life to the full, I guess, who knows what's gonna happen. :D
Tell that to Cloud no. 9.
if they have a vaccine, they have a vaccine don't go into physics and stuff that differ from the basic subject.
i am very doubtful of this vaccine. mainly because i am doubtful of the news of the worlds reporting. it would seem odd to be able to create a vaccine this quickly. and the real question is will it be effective? will it be available enough to vaccinate the majority of people? or will we face the same problems we do with tamiflu?
who cares.
just leave it, vaccine is a vaccine.
You think they would joke?
I must admit I am skeptic about the vaccine. why you ask? Because I didn't see anything in that article truely talking about the vaccine. I don't need the specifics but some addition information I would indeed ask for.
Also I ask for this info because I would not put it above the government/newspaper/scientists to lie about such a vaccine to keep us come. With no actually reporting on the vaccine I see little reason to trust it. Perhaps a later article will give more info. For now lets just say I am sceptic until I see more info on it. Afterall, why wouldn't a news article cover some more info on it? Or why wouldn't the scientists tell the reporters more?
The vaccine hasn't been revealed fully. They don't know how it works or what it does, all they know is that there is a vaccine, I think in the next few days we'll be told.
That may be the most spurious and unsubstantiated article I have had the misfortune of reading in my yeasr upon this earth.
I have absolutely no faith whatever that a miraculously effective, massively producable vaccine is in the works.
i would be very suprised if they didn't even know how it works. do we think they just went "lets try all these substances and see what we come up with" "yeah this one works" "do we know how?" "no but it seems to work...."