Firstly, I should say this now: if I end up choosing wrongly, I accept all responsibility for Town's defeat. I was so certain that Steiner was likely Zidane's Mafia partner, I didn't consider investigating someone else instead of Steiner. They ended up using that to their advantage, killing Steiner and effectively making my investigation null for the second time; the first investigation was luckily blocked.
In my defence, it wasn't as if Steiner was acting angelic. Some very peculiar posts accusing several members of rather benign motivations (how dare they want to live! how dare he want to know the mafia's motivations!) seemed like an attempt to start a bandwagon. I would like to say with hindsight I would've been able to see through this had I another chance, but... unlikely.
But let's get on with this. First, I'll summarise my thoughts on both Quina and Vivi.
The Case against Quina
Quina was always at a moderate level of suspicion, never falling, but never quite rising, either. Let's look at each day in turn:
Day One
Quina initially voted for Steiner, which isn't terribly suspicious, as like Steiner and Beatrix, it sounded like a role-play vote.
Much of the suspicion centred around Quina focused on this one post, quoted below:
Quote:
My vote for Steiner was because he was the first one to vote for a lynch today. ...not exactly much of a reason but it's slightly less scattershot than completely random.
Steiner's main argument for voting Quina was based on the theory that this was unsolicited. On reviewing the posts before this one, this is partially unsubstantiated. Before Quina's post, I stated: "We could at least make an attempt at Day One conversation before concluding we don't know anything and stab blindly."
It can be inferred that Quina might have been responding indirectly to my assertion that we should hold back from lynching. Quina then states why they have decided to lynch Steiner. I say partially, primarily because this is the only real evidence I could find, and it does come across as slightly forward. Still, it could be seen as helpful, laying all the cards out.
No other posts on Day One really give anything away. Quina eventually voted for Beatrix under pain of death, which doesn't give much away.
Day Two
From the beginning, Quina has been relatively suspicious of Vivi. Disregarding introductory posts, Quina's first major post in Day Two was questioning Vivi's first major post, quoted below:
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How do you come to the conclusion that that one player in particular was the one we were waiting for? Night moves are all secret, and 4 of the remaining 5 players have one available.
Quina never quite let this one go.
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That post about "we were waiting for Zidane to play his night role" just doesn't sit right with me. It doesn't make any sense at all which is more of a red flag than I get from anyone else.
Other posts during this day centred around the Eiko vs. Zidane debate. Quina also theorised that Zidane was suspicious, "The other would be Zidane, who is looking to turn my speculation on why Kuja may have been targeted into something incriminating." Quina then had IRL issues, and then resurfaced to vote against Zidane.
The Case against Vivi
Vivi always appeared helpful throughout both days, but this should be viewed objectively and without bias. So, let's review:
Day One
Not much to mention to be honest. After some light role-play, Vivi's first real post was:
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I too have been waiting for people to discuss things and begin conversation. Don't want to jump an innocent on nothing. Let’s not just kill to kill, but let's get a Mafia
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However Beatrix is acting suspicious really pushing for a quick lynch and jumping on to coat tails to do it.
That pretty much sums it up. Nothing here particularly clunks, but it is notable that Vivi does not add anything to the table. All of the posts is Vivi agreeing with others, as opposed to any real original thought behind them. Still, it is Day One, so it isn't something to beat him with. It was something I had in my notes for that day.
Day Two
After a relatively quiet Day One, Vivi comes back with a vengeance in Day Two. I noted this to be odd in my log: I always found sudden changes in activity (that isn't due to IRL) to be unusual. it suggests game strategy, which is something Town players shouldn't think of. As Town, you post and suss it out. Only if you have a power role should you choose to limit your posting, and I am the detective, and our doctor is dead. I might be overthinking this, but it clunked in my thinking.
Anyway, regardless of motive, Vivi really pressed forward in Day Two, even causing me to fall under his suspicion. This also seemed odd. I was accused of blocking conversation, when all I really said was we shouldn't cast undue suspicion on those absent an hour into the day. Vivi's gusto to getting the day moving seemed at odds with Day One. Vivi claimed " I have been quit due to game inactivity." Day Two was even more inactive at first, yet Vivi didn't make an attempt to stir the 'inactive' Day One conversation further.
The most important point to make about Vivi during the early stages of Day Two was this:
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Zidane however I am way more sure of and that is coming from him not posting. I know it sounds odd but I am positive Zidane is played by Scruff. We were waiting on Scruff to play a night move earlier. A roll of the dice is what I think killed Kuja.
Replace Scruff for Zidane in this quote. Why would Vivi suspect Scruff had a night role? Quina pointed this out, and I can't dispel it. Vivi later try to claim nothing of it, stating: "It may have been me over thinking the game. This is why I really want to talk it out." It doesn't seem like a fairly strong counter. It's basically saying "I was confused!" We must also consider that Zidane is Mafia. it didn't seem terribly bad at the time, but with Zidane as Mafia, it becomes more so.
Later on, Steiner becomes suspicious of Vivi. While much of Steiner's accusations seem... fairly weak, it is surprising because Qwerty is a pretty good player of Mafia. He mentions Vivi's posts as being "off-putting." Steiner is Town, not a Mafia trying to throw around nonsense posts. What was it about Vivi's posts that were so off-putting? If only Steiner posted more often.
The latter stage of Day Two centred on the whole cop business. Vivi ended up being lynchmaker. Central to Vivi voting for Zidane was the lack of suspicion Vivi had over me. While I'm glad of it, no reason was given as to why. At the start of the day, i was suspicious. Then something changed. It might've been my post against Zidane, but then why would Vivi take my word over Zidane? It's a question I still can't answer.
At the end, after some umming and ahhing, Vivi voted for Zidane.
Conclusion
Ugh, I'm going to be wrong, aren't I?
##VOTE: Vivi
After everything, having summarised all the suspicious posts and interesting quirks, Vivi just has... more. There's the night role post, or the way I'm suddenly Vivi's best friend in the game, or the sudden mini-gun of posts on Day Two. When I look at Quina, there just isn't as much questionable behaviour.
So yes, I'm going to go for Vivi. If I'm wrong, then I'm sorry, and that's a well played game of Mafia, there, Quina. :)