I'm banking on Pirates, as, like Tav, I expect Spider-Man 3 to fizzle out. All the negative reviews certainly killed my enthusiasm to see the movie right away. It was more that my friends were coming back and either saying "Eh, it was okay," or "That sucked hard," that really discouraged me.

Assuming Pirates doesn't suck equally as hard, I imagine it'll be able to beat Spider-Man in the long run.