Lebron is really growing up, but the Spurs will take the Cavs in 5 (6 if the Cavs really play their hearts out at home). The Spurs have the experience, the poise, and the best overall player in the NBA on their side. I think the Cavs will put up more of a fight than it may seem, but the Spurs will still prevail.
And regular season doesn't matter at all. Every Finals team that swept the other Finals team throughout the regular season eventually lost the championship series. The Spurs just look too damn good for anyone to beat.