Mafia IV - Official Game Thread (Game Over: TOWN WIN)

[[M] Aaron]

Okay, I'm making this quick as I'm tired to the death and it's 2 PM. I'll get more into it before work tomorrow. I've read all the new posts, but I haven't analyzed too much just yet. I'll save that for tomorrow.

Here's what I think

Not mafia:
Cl_out
foa

I think we can all agree on that.

Probably not mafia:
Leeza (Maybe she's cleared, I have to check through this thread again in the morning)

Maybe Mafia:
Koshiatar (if she isn't cop, she probably is)
BtV
theundeadhero (most suspicious of the stay low people, the other two stay lowers would be Zeromus_X and Hsu.)
Cid (his vote for yams, who voted for BtV, might've screwed up things for him now)

I'm guessing what happened tonight is that the mafia tried to kill either koshiatar or cl_out, and it failed. I can't think of any other people the mafia might've tried killing at this point. Maybe foa, since she's pretty much cleared after having Shlup at her throat through this game.

because doctors can't protect themselves only others

No, doctors can protect themselves. Faith Healers can't.

If the doctor protects the "cop" ko and ko is mafia then his protecting the mafia and the mafia will know who the doctor is

Nope, that's not the case. If the doctor protects a mafia member, the mafia member will not find out who protected him.

but I will I KNOW he is not the cop because the cop would have investigated someone and to randomly reveal themselves as a cop is stupid

I think we all agree that it was not very bright to step forward as a cop when she wasn't in danger of dying and she didn't even have any investigation results for us, but does that make her a liar/mafia? I just can't see it benefit her no matter what her role is. My point is, yeah, I find it fishy, but do I want to risk killing what could possibly be our last cop? Eh. That's why I agree with clout that it would be a good thing for the real cop to step forward if that is the case, otherwise we'll be forced to believe koshiatar's lies, if she is mafia. We have at least 1 doctor, maybe we even have two since there initially were two factions in this game, so there's a good chance the cop will be safe for many rounds if he does step forward.

I believe the cop should reveal themself if they investigate and find somebody guilty, and not before. Oh, and also if there's a fake roleclaim, which three of us seem to think.

Agreed. If I was a cop and found a mafia member, I would roleclaim immediately. Well, first I'd make sure I wasn't an insane cop. That could get embarassing. The point is that killing even one mafia member is awesome, and can link to other mafia members, and if the doctor is still alive, then the cop will be kept alive to perform many investigations in the future! I remember someone disagreed with this, so I thought I'd just elaborate on why it's a good thing to do, rather than sitting on a lot of valuable information and risk getting killed at night so nobody will ever know what you knew.

Okay, that was a quick overview xD Tomorrow I will analyze votings as it's 3 AM now jesus christ.

I'm very curious about who Koshiatar investigated and the result now.

edit:

Azar made the comment that he thinks I'm Pro-Town and only backed it up with the fact that I was first to vote BoB. I really don't understand how that makes me seem Pro-Town. I would have liked to see Azar post again to give some more reasoning as to why he thought that.

Firstly, that comment of mine has to be seen while thinking of the time I posted it and also the wording I used. What I meant, was that (at the moment) I was clueless about who was mafia, but that you were the one that I least suspected. That's why I was just interested in hearing what you had to say. I didn't mean at all that you were cleared, because after round 2, nobody was.

[[M] Al - Biker Dad]

Yesterday's events have led me to believe that fire_of_avalon, Leeza and Psychotic are innocent, for voting for ShlupQuack. Could the mafia have voted for one of their own to make them look less guilty? It's possible, but highly unlikely because Shlup was lynched by one vote.

Also, I believe Yamaneko is innocent as well because of Shlup's attempts to discredit him yesterday for suspecting Behold the Void.

In conclusion, BtV, Roo, Zero, and Koshiatar are all suspects for being scum.

This is a good basis. However, I would also like to add Cid to that list, for the reasons stated in a previous post. I can definitely see a link between Cid, ShlupQuack and Void over the Yamaneko issue. Could ShlupQuack have set it up to frame Void and Cid? Possible. However, because Shlup had yet to be accused and had no reason to suspect she'd be lynched that afternoon, I don't believe it to be the case.

I haven't said much about Roogle, Zeromus or Hsu. In fact I've said nothing! So I'll get onto that.

Roogle's last minute vote for me was extremely dodgy. I can somewhat understand the reasoning behind it, but I also thought I provided good reasons as to why I believed it was a good idea for the cop to come out. He also voted for Loony BoB right after proven mafia ShlupQuack did.

I don't have a clue, there's really no way to tell the first few days. Maybe we'll get lucky and off like 3 mafia in a row like last time

Closest thing to suspicion for me at this point is Roogle. Trying a bit too hard to be the 'voice of reason' for my taste, possible charade? I don't know. I don't have anything to go off of, so sorry if you're not mafia.

##Vote: Roogle

Fair enough, I can understand why someone would find me suspicous at this point. I can't really provide anyone with a reason not to suspect me at the moment, but I think after a day or two I can do better.

Hsu's post is a good one, but the "after a day or two" thing intrigues me. It's now been two days so yeah. Roogle isn't at the top of my suspects list at the moment though.

Zeromus_X, well hmm. Posting two posts, pretty much identical voting for BoB and foa, one of whom we know to be innocent, the other one I believe to be innocent and apparently so do some of you. I get the feeling this guy is a bad citizen who just skim reads and votes for who is popular. Come on, Zeromus! Let's see some analysis!

Hsu.

I also suspect somebody who I think has been the best player so far. I am not going to name them (it isn't Azar) but I will be interested to see if they come out here and defend the people I have accused.

I wrote this with Hsu in mind. If you ask me, Hsu has played a great game so far. His votes against Roogle and Cid are intelligent, and he has kept his head down and not gone public. This is exactly how I wanted to play. I don't want to push the issue of Hsu too hard just yet. I was suspicious of him because of the fact that I think he's played well. Now, though, I think there are many more pressing suspects than him.

[[M] Joe - Army Dad]

I might as well set the voting ball rolling. I'm voting for Void for the same reason I voted for ShlupQuack. The serial killer incident yesterday. It just seems kind of odd to assume that there are two mafia factions when it's much more likely that the serial killer killed someone else before being killed himself. It just seems suspicious. (This vote may change.)

##Vote: BtV

[[M] Aaron]

Okay, just one last thing before I go to bed. xD

One of clouts points for suspecting Shlup and BtV was that they tried to spread misinformation by suggesting there were more serial killers when it's pretty obvious that there aren't any more. Seems BtV and Shlup weren't the only one spreading that:

I don't know Shlup. Maybe there are two mafia organizations again?

Most likely. This day might just be harder than yesterday!

Could just be a coincidence, I suppose, but combined with the following post I'm not so sure:

I think that Yams and foa are on the same mafian team, and Yams freaked and rushed toward foa's aid when he thought she was going to be eliminated.

Shlup raises a good point...though I'm not entirely sure about foa. I think the cop should investigate one of them.

Maybe ShlupQuack + BtV + Roogle is a team, with roo trying to influence the cop. or maybe it's just just ShlupQuack + Roogle. I guess a problem with this theory would be Cid's vote for Yams who voted for BtV, because it would make sense that Cid & BtV was a team. Now I just wonder if the mafia would be silly enough to link themselves together that much. ;o and since there was a serial killer, I don't think there's too many mafia left either.

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

Roogle's last minute vote for me was extremely dodgy. I can somewhat understand the reasoning behind it, but I also thought I provided good reasons as to why I believed it was a good idea for the cop to come out. He also voted for Loony BoB right after proven mafia ShlupQuack did.

That was a horrible mistake on my part...but let me say if I were mafia, there is no way I would so stupidly nod in agreement with Shlup the entire game. It goes without saying that I no longer think you or foa are mafia either. I think Shlup being mafia proves that.


Right now I'm most suspicious of theundeadhero and KoShiatar.

theundeadhero has made a total of four posts. None of them contributing to the game.
http://forums.eyesonff.com/search.php?searchid=924554

I don't think he's been replaced, either.


Obviously I suspect Ko for the cop thing. I do not believe that she is the cop...and if she isn't the cop, then why would she lie about it?

EDIT:

Zeromus_X is also suspicious.

http://forums.eyesonff.com/search.php?searchid=924559


I think we have one too many people playing the newbie card.

[[M] Colette]

Liar, youre not the cop Ko, I know this one for sure.

I'm really curious about this right here. The below quote is your "justification" of being "sure" KoShiatar is not the cop. Your analysis requires a lot of assumptions and is speculative at best. Is that really the only base you have for being sure she's not the cop? I mean, basically everyone here is suspicious of Ko at this point, including me, but we don't claim to be absolutely sure of it. Seems fishy to me.

I don't even have to justify my calling ko a liar, but I will I KNOW he is not the cop because the cop would have investigated someone and to randomly reveal themselves as a cop is stupid do you see an undercover cop against the mafia suddenly blowing his cover wide open like that? I sure as hell don't. If the doctor protects the "cop" ko and ko is mafia then his protecting the mafia and the mafia will know who the doctor is which means the real cop will get whacked when they reveal themselves because doctors can't protect themselves only others.

Edit:

Also, I believe Yamaneko is innocent as well because of Shlup's attempts to discredit him yesterday for suspecting Behold the Void.

Ah didn't notice that, that's pretty solid. But I'm still not ready to clear the name.

[[M] D'Anna]

A lot of people are basing a lot of suspicions on the idea that I'm mafia. I don't know what else to say except I'm not, and I smurfed up. I'm not saying they're innocent either, but I know I am. I really did think foa was the most suspicious and that's why my vote stayed on her both days, and that's why I was so quick to vote for her. There's a lesson in humility and I feel stupid but why would I so strongly go for her if I'm mafia and I know she's innocent? That would only bite me in the ass when people find out she's innocent like it's doing now.

I don't know why Shlup was defending me in the begining but it's not because I'm mafia. Maybe Cid and her were really working together or maybe she just really wanted Yams dead, whatever. I just want to say that if I were really mafia, then I could have helped to save Shlup's ass at the end of the day but I didn't, even after you thought we were on a team. Sticking with foa like I did would just bite me in the ass too like it's doing.

Don't vote me out, I'm going to pay a lot closer attention and work with people that I know aren't mafia now. Everyone is already suspicious of me anyway so if I keep smurfing up you can all vote me out later, but if you lynch me now you'll just be killing a townie. At least I'm trying to help, some of the other people are suspicious and don't even seem to be trying at all.

I'm really interested to know what Koshiatar has to say too.

[[M] Helo]

Ok, I'm going to actually give BtV the benefit of the doubt today, if he isn't whacked by the mafia and I'm suspicious tomorrow then I'll lynch him perhaps. If he doesn't prove himself innocent in some way.

Hsu what can I say, I'm deeply suspicious of people, paranoid some might say, but I'm definitely sure Ko isn't a cop or if she is she seriously smurfed up. Roleclaiming without presenting anything even a "BtV is definitely innocent I investigated him" which would ofcourse open BtV up for being whacked and herself would have made for a more convincing role claim.

I'm reserving my vote today until I've slept and gotten a little further in to this discussion in the morning. However I'm leaning towards Koshiatar or Cid atm. Cid has no real reason to have voted for me yet, he did. Also Eest changed to BtV now if Void was innocent then he was mighty close to being the lynched person then voting for him would have saved shlup the scummy wench. Anyway more later

[[M] Walter - Smart Dad]

Well... . I'd like to apologize to foa for going for you this whole time. I should have listened to you guys, even though I still think foa did act suspicious but I'll admit I was wrong. You wouldn't have voted for Shlupquack if you were mafia, and I know that cl_out isn't a mafia now, just a townie who's out to get me. >.> I'm glad no one died tonight but I realize it looks bad on me now since I was going for foa and argueing with cl_out the whole time. I really hope the cop investigated me tonight and I don't want to have to resort to roleclaiming. This sucks too because I'd rather not have the cop reveal themselves either.

I think Leeza, foa, Psychotic, and cl_out are all innocent because all of their votes mattered for killing Shlup. Koshiatar is looking the most suspicious to me right now, and the undeadhero as well. but I'm not going to vote right away again.

A lot of people are basing a lot of suspicions on the idea that I'm mafia. I don't know what else to say except I'm not, and I smurfed up. I'm not saying they're innocent either, but I know I am. I really did think foa was the most suspicious and that's why my vote stayed on her both days, and that's why I was so quick to vote for her. There's a lesson in humility and I feel stupid but why would I so strongly go for her if I'm mafia and I know she's innocent? That would only bite me in the ass when people find out she's innocent like it's doing now.

I don't know why Shlup was defending me in the begining but it's not because I'm mafia. Maybe Cid and her were really working together or maybe she just really wanted Yams dead, whatever. I just want to say that if I were really mafia, then I could have helped to save Shlup's ass at the end of the day but I didn't, even after you thought we were on a team. Sticking with foa like I did would just bite me in the ass too like it's doing.

Don't vote me out, I'm going to pay a lot closer attention and work with people that I know aren't mafia now. Everyone is already suspicious of me anyway so if I keep smurfing up you can all vote me out later, but if you lynch me now you'll just be killing a townie. At least I'm trying to help, some of the other people are suspicious and don't even seem to be trying at all.

I'm really interested to know what Koshiatar has to say too.

I reckon a lot can be gathered from these posts.

First, the three people that voted for me were as follows: Behold_the_void, Koshiatar, and Zero.

Now, what I find strange is when two of the more suspicious people are working together, why would one try to put any negative attention on their ally at this point? Especially if they are already both in the sptolight?

This leads me to believe, that BtV calling out Kosh in both posts means that if BtV is MAfia, Kosh isn't. But if Kosh is, BtV isn't. No, I don't believe either of these folk are working together. Well, o course if both of them are townie, they would be, but yall know what I mean.

However among the two of them, Koshi and her little "I'm a cop dont lynch me" show is highly suspcious. Depending on the investigation depends on her Mafia status. So as soon as Koshi posts it, I may have an Idea of whether or not she is Mafia.

Edit: I'm also removing Roo from my suspects. Very good reason. Check just before the lynching. He definately could have changed his vote to me right there, and petentially saved a fellow Mafia.

He may not have done this due to suspicion, for switching at that point would seem rather odd.

However, While I still have suspicions about Roo, I will remove him from my main suspects.

Also, look at roo's posts earlier calling out Kosh. No way a fellow Mafia would ruthlessly try and disclaim their own. So, if Koshiatar is cleared, I can asume not only is she not working with Void, but that she is not working with Roo either.

So as it stands, I'm reckon Koshiatar is our best bet to lynch, as if she is Mafia, two more of us will be cleared, and our most likely citzen count will be up to the following.

foa, Clout, Roo, and BtV.


Koshiatar, unless you give me a really good reason not to lynch you after all this and your little Cop Claim, you are garunteed to have my vote darlin'.

Edit2: Wow, My mind just drew itself another Idea.

Think onto my current four main suspects before I decided to not go with Roo, BtV, Koshi, and Zero.

If, in fact, Koshi is Mafia, and BtV and Roo are basically cleared for me. That Leaves Zero, so if Koshi is Mafia, I have little doubt that Zero is her partner in crime. It could very well be Hsu, or maybe even Cid as was a possible suggestion from Clout, however I don't have enough doubt cast against those two yet to put much blame on them.

So, if Koshi is Mafia, we have three good suspects to choose from. Zero, Hsu, and Cid.

WE also clear 2 more people of being Mafia. In addition, if Kosh is a Citzen, that draws my attention on to two other Suspects of mine, BtV and Roo.

Why? Because not only did both of them go against Koshiatar, suggesting that they are on the same page, but they are both suspects of mine.

And I'm not quite ready to believe that Hsu is the possible great player Clout is thinking, though it is possible Not enough for me to lable him Mafia just yet.

And While Cid is suspicious, I see no way of linking him to either Void, Roo, Cid, or Koshiatar, so I'm even more reluctant to believe he is mafia.

For those who didn't read all that, I have a shorter version of what I think.

1. If Koshiatar is Mafia, both Roo and BtV are cleared.
2. Also if Koshiatar is Mafia, Zero is my number 1 suspect, followed by Hsu and then Cid.
3. If Koshiatar is Townie, I am positive BtV is Mafia. If so, this leaves all of my other suspects, however places Roo as the most likely mafai instead of Zero.
4) Assuming that there are only 3 mafia like before, the remaining two are most likely KoshixZero or BtVxRoo.

I'm not discounting a fourth mafia member if there is only one Seriel killer, however if there is a fourth, I still believe them to be in that very list of suspects.

[[M] Gaius]

I think there's a possibility that no one has brought up about KoShiatar yet. It's not very likely, I'll give everyone that, but if she's playing a weird strategy, who knows, right? Say KoShiatar is a doctor. She roleclaims as a cop to pull attention from the Mafia and protects herself at night. This way, she saves a citizen from dying. Again, a far out idea but not entirely impossible.

KoShiatar, either way, roleclaiming as a cop is a pretty big thing to do. I seriously suggest you explain some things because you're looking very suspicious right now. Your vote for fire_of_avalon from Day 2 doesn't help things.

Can I propose a plan? If all of those who voted for Shlupquack on Day 2 can be trusted to be citizens, should they all continue to vote together? A concrete vote of 4 people sticking together is difficult to debate as treacherous if they find another mafia, correct? Please let me know if this is not a good idea.

[[M] D'Anna]

I didn't call Koshiatar out both posts. I said I was most suspicious of her in my first one and I still am, and so is a lot of other people. I just didn't want to vote for her in case she is a cop, and cops are the most useful role so in case she's just smurfing up then we'll really have smurfed up too. That's why I want to hear what she has to say first, and that's all I said in my second one. If she's really cop then I'd like to know who she thinks is innocent or guilty and even better if she investigated me. At least I'll know if she's telling the truth then, if she's mafia or cop. (Edit: I guess she can lie but it will give me a better idea)

But you're right that I'm not working with her at all, whether she is a cop or mafia because I still suspect her and a lot of other people. I'm not working with anyone except cl_out who I know is a townie and you and Leeza and Psychotic who I think are townies, because I'm a citizen. The only thing you remember from my posts is that I mentioned Koshiatar, but if I'm really mafia I'm not going to be going for you so hard in the first two days if I know you're innocent because of exactly what's happening now. And what about sticking with my vote for you to the very end, if I knew shulp was a mafia then I would have known that you would be proved innocent after she died, so why would I keep my vote for you unless I really thought you were mafia?

[[M] Walter - Smart Dad]

I think there's a possibility that no one has brought up about KoShiatar yet. It's not very likely, I'll give everyone that, but if she's playing a weird strategy, who knows, right? Say KoShiatar is a doctor. She roleclaims as a cop to pull attention from the Mafia and protects herself at night. This way, she saves a citizen from dying. Again, a far out idea but not entirely impossible.

Entirely possible, but the only problem is if Mafia have any reason to believe Koshi is a cop and will be protected, why bother with her? I mean no one seems to believe she's a cop anyway, so even if its true, any verdict she gives is likely to be put into to much question anyway. Overall, if she is a townie, she's not a very good one. Of course I could say the same for if she was Mafia.

I didn't call Koshiatar out both posts. I said I was most suspicious of her in my first one and I still am, and so is a lot of other people. I just didn't want to vote for her in case she is a cop, and cops are the most useful role so in case she's just smurfing up then we'll really have smurfed up too. That's why I want to hear what she has to say first, and that's all I said in my second one. If she's really cop then I'd like to know who she thinks is innocent or guilty and even better if she investigated me. At least I'll know if she's telling the truth then, if she's mafia or cop. (Edit: I guess she can lie but it will give me a better idea)

But you're right that I'm not working with her at all, whether she is a cop or mafia because I still suspect her and a lot of other people. I'm not working with anyone except cl_out who I know is a townie and you and Leeza and Psychotic who I think are townies, because I'm a citizen. The only thing you remember from my posts is that I mentioned Koshiatar, but if I'm really mafia I'm not going to be going for you so hard in the first two days if I know you're innocent because of exactly what's happening now. And what about sticking with my vote for you to the very end, if I knew shulp was a mafia then I would have known that you would be proved innocent after she died, so why would I keep my vote for you unless I really thought you were mafia?

Your first post you said she was most suspicious.
Your second post said you wanted to here what she had to say.

You both said you suspected her, and told her to respond.

I definately sounds like you called her out twice. :P

[[M] Adama]

Alright, reading through this, I agree a lot with what foa had to say, and before reading anything new, after reading through the last round a bit more thoroughly, I can say for the time being, I don't think roo is associated with the mafia, because quite simply, he could have saved Schlup, and while it would have been suspicious, it would have meant one less (probable) townie in foa, giving the mafia more room to work with as they operated into the evening. (a lot of this will probably be restatements of others, but they're my thoughts too! they just happen to mirror what other people think.) Which puts foa on my side, and psy and crono, because I don't think mafia would have voted for schlup. I definitely think the three guilty right now turn out being BtV, Ko, and Zero, though Zero more by association than anything. I know I hate to still be suspicious of you void, but there has been so much evidence on you up until now, and voting for foa last round didn't help. You can claim to be a townie all you want, but that's exactly what schlup did (and what everyone is doing, well, except for ko xD) and we all found out how much truth there was there. however, at this time, that isn't near reason enough to vote to lynch you, and I may just have to give you the benefit of the doubt.

And then Ko, oh ko. What are you doing? If I was playing poorly to start, then I have absolutely no freaking idea what you plan to gain by roleclaiming cop. This would be a lot easier to believe if you had someone investigated. Even if you made it up! But you haven't said anything aside from that you're the cop. Additionally, the way you posted that originally was very odd. In one post it was "Who wants proof I'm not a mafia man?" so that you could wait for someone to ask "why not?" before posting "i'm the cop." I guess in all honestly, that really could mean nothing at all, but when I read that I think that if you, quite frankly, were the cop, and wanted to let us know, you would have come out and told us you were the cop instead of egging someone to ask and then giving it at the slightest prompting (coupled with the fact that you still have produced no evidence). And while with such a bold claim like that, I become really hesitant to lynch what could be the town's greatest ally, but without any proof on your part, there's only one sure way to know.

[[M] Harry - Dad's Dad]

My results:

Investigated: FOA

Result: Citizien.

[[M] Helo]

Ko that gives us nothing, foa is a proven citizen by voting to lynch Shlup yesterday, why give up a fellow member of the mafia so easily with plenty of other people out there. To have been useful you either would have investigated BtV, Chrono or Cid who are all equally in the position of could be mafias. Now I still don't believe you're a cop. We've already ascertained foa's status. Also I think the real cop would have been more discreet this early in the game and given subtle hints about who they had investigated and their results.