The PlayStation3 is getting gang-raped so badly by the other two consoles that I can say with certainty that it getting out of last place is a pipe-dream.

If people give up waiting for a Wii now, that doesn't necessarily mean that they will never buy one after that point - even if the supply rises to meet demand. The hype behind the Wii is simply too strong to be stopped; people are going to keep waiting for it for as long as it takes to get their hands on one.