If you can find it, you should just get the MGS4 bundle that comes out in 2 days. Yeah it's more expensive than just getting the 40, but it comes with MGS4 and a DualShock 3. Even if you bought the $400 40GB system, by time you've purchased MGS4 and a DualShock 3 (which does not come with the 40), you've already spent $515. The MGS4 80GB kit is $500 on its own.

No game recommendations from me, though I'm probably most looking forward to LBP and Valkyria Chronicles.