Zero percent. The town will never defeat me . I will make the thread with the kill once Lek agrees.

And actually the town has less of a chance. He has a 2 in 5 chance of killing one of us, 1 in 4 if you count me being "cleared". But, he has even less if you consider that theres a chance he might target correctly (or target our kill correctly) and just investigate or do nothing.