Yeah but BAFTA voters are more biased towards British actors (Firth and Mulligan will not win at the Oscars) and were apparently never too likely to pick Avatar as Best Film. So they're not always the best barometer.

And it's not just another awards show, it's the Oscars, the biggest, dumbest, most hilariously OTT of the lot (except the Grammys, but they're just crap).