Handhelds are the future?

[Northcrest]

In my japanese class this guy came from Japan to visit us to tell us about Japan and such. One thing he told me that caught my attention was that almost everybody uses smartphones and such for things like school work, video games, and of course communication. Things like Computers and even laptops few people have and are usually provided at the school for work. I started thinking so are our PSPs, DSs, Iphones, Droids are they going to be the future. I mean I'm a highschool student and I might be different but I don't nearly spent as much time as I use to on my Wii, PS2 or anything else. Though my psp wherever i'm at, I just bust it out and start playing to pass time by. I just recently got a new PS2 controller and got back into my PS2 and realize how much time I spent in kingdom hearts 2 which was about 90 hours. My old dissidia game clocked over 300 hours (before it got stolen). Made me realize I'm gonna miss out on some when I grow up. I thought maybe it would not be that bad to have games like Final Fantasy XV, or more future games come to handhelds. This would definently be fun for me but, Im going to miss out probably for a while. I read some articles and how sony is currently sort of putting the PS4 on hold trying to push things like the Xperia Play and NGP. Even stating that handhelds could be the future. I 'm thinking we would hit this period in about 10-20 years, but it seems its coming sooner than I was expecting.

Anyway I did not plan on typing this much but what do you think? Do you think it will happen soon are is it just something that would not happen. Express yourself

[Iceglow]

People say things like this all the damn time but frankly if someone could accurately predict the future they'd be making a fortune and there would be no mystery in life anymore. I think the idea of trying to sit there and predict it is ludicrous. Time will tell if portables overtake the market but frankly as it stands even though portable consoles are certainly making a huge market for themselves I doubt we'll see the end of the home entertainment system for a while yet.

[Bunny]

It'll base itself on market trends, like it does now. The DS and PSP are popular, so companies are focusing significantly on releasing titles of each system. When the market shifts again, so will the companies. I don't see a future in which home consoles do not exist, as they bring certain things to the table that portable consoles cannot hope to achieve.

[Yeargdribble]

When I hear people discuss it they tend to suggest that we're trending away from portables in many ways. Here are a few scenarios.

Shared Content
The NGP seems to highlight this potentiality. Games could come as available for both the NGP and the PS3 and would be able to sync up. Sync up your NGP on the way out the door, play some Uncharted while you're out, sync it back up at home, continue your game where you left off on the NGP on your big TV.

What I keep hearing is that to a large degree people don't want this. They don't want big console experiences shrunk down to their handheld. It loses some of its grandeur and bombast. They want to enjoy those types of games at home with nice audio and a big screen.

I would absolutely welcome it as an option, but I'm not sure how attractive it is to the mainstream.

One iOS to rule them all
Balk as much as you like, but even the serious gamers are starting to lean toward iOS devices. All of the podcasts that used to laugh at the iPhone and complain about controls sucking because fingers cover the screen and how it will never be good enough... yeah, most of those guys are singing the praises of amazing iOS releases like Infinity Blade, Dead Space and Plants vs Zombies to say nothing of the ubiquitous titles like Angry Birds, Cut the Rope, and Fruit Ninja which have infected the general populous of FB gamers.

Sure, there are a few holdouts that still say it doesn't matter, the more common thing is to hear people say they no longer carry their PSP or DS because they have an iPhone/iPod Touch and they can't justify carrying two devices. I'm a person who will probably always want my game specific hardware, but I'm starting to find myself in their shoes. It's easier to slide my Touch into my pocket... which I'll have anyway for apps and mobile internet. I just realize that I'll be satisfied enough with playing a floor or two of 100 Rogues if I get the itch and it's not worth lugging a bulky portable that's harder to pick up and put down on the fly.


My Thoughts
Personally, I think the handheld market will continue to thrive, but not necessarily grow significantly; at least it won't grow they way you might expect. I think mobile gaming is taking off, but rather than iPhone gaming luring new people to Nintendo and Sony platforms, it seems to be trending the other way. Either DS/PSP style gaming will continue at a plateau or it will slowly drop off as people start to prefer a simply solution... one device in their pocket that does it all... like and iPhone.

Even among the largest demographic I see with DSes (kids) it will probably go that route. If a parent is deciding between a Touch and 3DS it'll be a tough call considering the prices and what all else the touch can do. Kids will want a music player anyway... why not kill two birds with one stone.

I'm really excited about the NGP, but it's going to be large and is going to exacerbate the issue of portability next to the iPhone.


Also, I think your estimate of 10-20 years is a bit myopic. In 10 years the tech will make this thread look silly as crap. It's ridiculous difficult to predict things in tech due to unknowns. Plotting a course for know tech almost always underestimates its speed and the other problem is not considering new tech. Iceglow, I'm pretty sure you're close to my age and if you think back 10-15 years at how quickly things like the internet swarmed us... how quickly phones went from lol Nokias to amazing computers in our pockets.... yeah. Tech moves so fast we can't even imagine. Most of the things we were predicting then were ridiculous and didn't even imagine a world like we have today.

Jesus, in 10-20 years we might just be doing some neural interface with our portable computers via wireless to play augmented reality games on our 3D display contact lenses. Seriously... stuff can get that crazy that fast. But in the short-term, I see us leaving gaming only devices to hobbyists.

[Vyk]

If Apple teamed up with the guys behind the Pandora, you'd have your ultimate handheld device for the next 5+ years :P

[DMKA]

Ugh, I hope not. I haven't cared about a handheld enough to own one since Gameboy Color. I had a PSP but then I quickly realized it had (SPOILER)no games and returned it.

Honestly it's not because they don't have worthy titles or anything, but it's the same reason I've never owned an iPod or laptop; I'd never use them. Whenever I'm not home I'm always busy doing something, not sitting around to where I can listen to music, watch a movie, or play a video game. I do these things at home or at a friend's house when I'm not busy. The only time I'd be able to make use of these things is when I'm traveling, like on an airplane, but that happens so rarely that it wouldn't warrant me dishing out the money for any of these devices.

It's a shame that all this stuff wasn't around at affordable prices when I was a kid/teenager. I would have put them to great use.

[kotora]

One iOS to rule them all

not going to happen on the long term because of basic economics. the other big electronics companies aren't gonna let Apple be the sole monopolist on the market.

[Yeargdribble]

One iOS to rule them all

not going to happen on the long term because of basic economics. the other big electronics companies aren't gonna let Apple be the sole monopolist on the market.

I don't think iOS platforms will suffocate the gamer specific devices ever, but I think convenient portable gaming is going to slow the spread of those platforms. The casual demographic that Nintendo aimed at with commercials feature Liv Tyler and Beyonce playing shovelware now has a better place to go. They can just get an iPhone or Android phone and be more than satisfied. People who bought into the Wii and DS for moms crap are probably wise the scheme now. They know that those gaming only devices collected dust.

Meanwhile, more gamers are starting to take iOS and Android seriously as platforms, especially with some of the iPad stuff.

I think the rise of these casual platforms is going to halt any potential takeover of traditional gaming handhelds.

But hey... Apple could take a nosedive too. Remember in the early 90s when Apple was a laughable company on its way out the door? I'm not saying that they are heading that direction but rather that the public is fickle and all it takes is some silly idea (like the iMac) for some usurper to start turning them in another direction. But despite what happens to Apple as a business, the impact that they've made on portable gaming is going to stick.

[Rostum]

One thing to keep in mind is a lot of big studios have been shutting down and more indie studios are popping up. Due to lack of resources, these indies are aiming at things like the iPhone simply because it's really cheap to develop for and there's a massive market for it (when I say massive, I mean much bigger than the console, pc and nintendo market). Why spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on development kits and a big staff list when you can just get a few people together and only spend a hundred on an iOS licesnse? Even marketing can be done on the cheap these days, what with social networks and all. Just look at Angry Birds, it has already sold over 15 million copies.

not going to happen on the long term because of basic economics. the other big electronics companies aren't gonna let Apple be the sole monopolist on the market.

Except that it's been that way for many years.

Apple have had over four years to implant their iPhone devices in to the general publics mind. Everyone either has an iPhone or wants one. It'll be really tough to try and get in to the smartphone market as has been seen with Windows Phone 7 which is ultimately a superior OS for smartphones (who are now going to team up with Nokia, so we'll see how that goes).

Just another quick tidbit - Games are going social. Even moreso than before. Things like Facebook are a hugely viable option for developers. I was reading up about an analysis saying that you don't even have to have a top ranking game on Facebook to be able to make $500,000/yr. It's really that insane. So I think the social aspect will really impact what the next consoles and handhelds will be like, as the smartphones have already had a jump start in that direction.

EDIT:

I thought this might be of some interest:
http://toucharcade.com/2011/02/21/sq...y-iii-release/

[nirojan]

AS of me writing this it's a three way tie!
It'll be a co-existance. As much as handhelds are improving and coming closer and closer to the home console experience, the majority of the people will still prefer home consoles. Yes some iphone games are breaking through, like infinity blade and dead space, but untill the standard iphone games reach that level of fidelity, I don't see that really being a threat. As for portable handhelds, well the 3DS and the NGP (especially seeing the graphics power behind this one) are really edging towards the HD console experience, but most gamers will still favour laying on a couch and playing games on a 50' screen.

One thing to keep in mind is a lot of big studios have been shutting down and more indie studios are popping up. Due to lack of resources, these indies are aiming at things like the iPhone simply because it's really cheap to develop for and there's a massive market for it (when I say massive, I mean much bigger than the console, pc and nintendo market). Why spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on development kits and a big staff list when you can just get a few people together and only spend a hundred on an iOS licesnse? Even marketing can be done on the cheap these days, what with social networks and all. Just look at Angry Birds, it has already sold over 15 million copies.

I hope you know those indie devs are not making much. Another thing your wrong about is console development is not in the hundred of thousands it's in the millions (for HD console games/high-end PC titles). Angry birds is probably the best selling iOS game, and like you stated it sold 15 million, but a game that started off as a $1.99 game and dropped to $0.99 doesn't make much. Let's say even if everyone bought it back when it was 2 buck (and they didn't), that'd be around 30 million in sales. Let's not forget development cost and the Apple royalty. That's no where near what console specific games are making. Both COD MW2 and COD BO made over a BILLION EACH!! That's best selling iOS vs best selling Console game! Even if you subtract the 2 year pay for the developers to make those titles (Infinity Ward and Treyarch), add in the MASSIVE ad campaign Activision put out for the game, the $10 royalty (to MS for 360 and to Sony for PS3) and in the end they have still made Billions. Now I know I picked the extreme example, but in fairness you chose the best selling iOS title. Games like Final Fantasy, Halo, Resident Evil, Gran Theft Auto, etc. that sell around the 5-10 million units are still making hundred's of million of dollars. You really are talking oranges and apples when comparing sales between mobile platforms and consoles. For big publishers, the mobile market is more of an experiment then any actual profit. Look at what EA had to do with their iOS titles, they tried to make money like how they do on consoles, but failed miserably. Now they dropped soo many of their games down to $0.99 (most which started of as $9.99)! The problem with your "MASSIVE" market is that not everyone who buys an iphone will be gaming on it. There are people who *brace for it* just use it as a phone! compare itunes/app store sales to the number of iphone units sold worldwide around release to new customers.

[Rase]

For me the different ways of playing a game signify different experiences. When I want a solid RPG or nice 2D adventure game I curl up with my DS and enjoy. When I want to play multiplayer games, shooters, or 3D adventure games I lounge in front of the TV on my 360 or Wii, or sit in the cocoon-like area around my PC. On the go, I whip out my iPod Touch and play little puzzle games and such for 5-10 mins while waiting for the doctor or whatever. I don't see any of these going away and hope they do not, as they provide me with whatever experience I want at a given moment.

[Rostum]

I hope you know those indie devs are not making much. Another thing your wrong about is console development is not in the hundred of thousands it's in the millions (for HD console games/high-end PC titles). Angry birds is probably the best selling iOS game, and like you stated it sold 15 million, but a game that started off as a $1.99 game and dropped to $0.99 doesn't make much. Let's say even if everyone bought it back when it was 2 buck (and they didn't), that'd be around 30 million in sales. Let's not forget development cost and the Apple royalty. That's no where near what console specific games are making. Both COD MW2 and COD BO made over a BILLION EACH!! That's best selling iOS vs best selling Console game! Even if you subtract the 2 year pay for the developers to make those titles (Infinity Ward and Treyarch), add in the MASSIVE ad campaign Activision put out for the game, the $10 royalty (to MS for 360 and to Sony for PS3) and in the end they have still made Billions. Now I know I picked the extreme example, but in fairness you chose the best selling iOS title. Games like Final Fantasy, Halo, Resident Evil, Gran Theft Auto, etc. that sell around the 5-10 million units are still making hundred's of million of dollars. You really are talking oranges and apples when comparing sales between mobile platforms and consoles. For big publishers, the mobile market is more of an experiment then any actual profit. Look at what EA had to do with their iOS titles, they tried to make money like how they do on consoles, but failed miserably. Now they dropped soo many of their games down to $0.99 (most which started of as $9.99)! The problem with your "MASSIVE" market is that not everyone who buys an iphone will be gaming on it. There are people who *brace for it* just use it as a phone! compare itunes/app store sales to the number of iphone units sold worldwide around release to new customers.

You have a problem with reading comprehension, don't you? I'm not talking about the huge companies that sell blockbusters, I'm talking about the smaller companies that are turning indie and don't need to get hundreds of thousand dollar loans to make a project when there are better options now (note: I'm not talking about companies that can put in 50 million dollars and 3+ years to a title). Contrary to popular belief, there is more to the industry than just the big cheeses like Square-Enix, EA and Activision. And the smaller guys are struggling big time to the point where they are turning indie and the iOS platform (especially with the Mac App Store now released) is a great way to get in there without having to fork out licensing fees that are huge.

It's all relative, too. Whilst Angry Birds won't make billions of dollars, they won't have to hire hundreds of people and get licenses and investors that want their piece of the pie. There are huge amounts of indie studios (and I'm not even going to consider EA since the iPhone/Smartphone market isn't based off how much production value you can shove in to a title) that are surviving just fine and making a lot of money for themselves.

[nirojan]

@Rostum:
Well that's problem we both share. I never said that's what you were talking about. I merely showed the difference between the 2 markets for the sake of the thread we're in. As for small studios turning indie, I just wanted to point out they aren't making as much as you think. That Facebook title that you said was making half a million a year, im going to assume is Farmville. Zynga posted profits at around 15 million which means their top grossing game isn't pulling all that hard cash for them. I mean even considering Mafia Wars, Texas hold um (and to a lesser extent) Cityville, that's not really where there making money. They're making most of their money through advertising and lease agreement shares with facebook. Those indie devs being the future is faaaaaaar off is what I was getting at. Me pulling the big publishers into this was to show you CONTRAST. Yes those are amazing feats for small companies, but I think we're talking about those companies taking over in the long run on smaller platforms (like mobile or social networks).

[Northcrest]

read some comments that are really interesting. I didn't mean to say their wern't gonna be no more consoles i can see family games especially taking up consoles as well as others. Like yeargdribble was saying things like the ngp as much as i'm gonna want to buy it i know it probably won't sell nearly as much as 3ds or iphone. Nirojan and Rostum i can also see your guys points makes alot of sense especially the one that rostum stated about big companies working on iOS games to make some extra money.

[VeloZer0]

Electronic news has made newspapers obsolete, but reading the newspaper over a meal is still by far my favorite way to consume news.

Even if my phone can play every single game my home console can unless it is streaming through my TV and folds into a more ergonomic controller it will never displace the console.