P4 - Mafia XIX Game Thread - [Game Over] Mafia DOMINATION

[[M] Adama]

This reminds me of the duel of wits between Vizzini and Westley in The Princess Bride. Really, it can go either way if you think the mafia members are clever men or great fools.

[[M] Caprica]

I agree with Yukiko. Let's make it as hard as possible for the mafia to hide. If we overlook things then we lose.

I was thinking about the strategy you are using though and one thing worries me. Half the town had a vote on either Teddie or Mitsuo. Killing everyone certainly will get one or two mafia members at least, possibly even more. But it will cripple the town at the same time. Assume that any two random members on that vote are mafia. thats two mafia down but nine town members! There has to be more to your strategy than killing everyone.

I highly doubt that you are going to risk crippling the town Morooka, but if I didn't say this I couldn't live with myself. It has nothing to do with the fact I'm one of your suspects.

[[M] Adama]

At this point we should all be pretty wary of everyone, but we must think logically if we're to sniff out the mafia from behind their tricks. Or anymore distractions in case there is some other skitzo type role in play.

There very well may be scum in either voting party from yesterday. I think it's still too early for a good guess, so I'll go with a not so good one. Something about Mitsuo's actions just don't sit right with me right now, as much as I hate to cast judgement without some solid evidence.

##Vote: [M] Mitsuo

[[M] Gaius]

Sorry, still not in bed yet.

Kanji, I have 7 suspects. Even if we had to kill every single one of them, that's 5 townies and 2 scum. That is on the extreme edge of things and I can't see it happening.

The odds for Scum 1 is 1/4. The odds for Scum 2 is 1/3. That's the math if we do this randomly, but we can always examine the suspects closer to find the best candidates.

[[M] Athena]

Anyone agree that this logic is okay? Not great, but alright?

I don't like being a suspect, but I can't fault your logic Morooka. Still, I think ruling Mitsuo out as a suspect isn't ideal. He might not be your top suspect, but he's one of mine.

Keep up the good work though, dawg. You've got some real good points here, I'll try and respond to them all when I've got more free time.

[[M] Adama]

We started with what, 21 people? There are currently 18 left. How many mafia would there be for a group this size?

[[M] Gaius]

Chie, it isn't Day 1 so I don't agree with the bad vibe explanation. Going after likely suspects is better then hunting down bad vibes.

Adachi, thanks. I've already given my reasons for not suspecting Mitsuo, so I can't agree. No one was quick to save him from the tie, so isn't that another thing in his favor?

[[M] Adama]

If it looked like a mafia member were going down, I would imagine that his fellow mafia members wouldn't not be so quick to save him for risk of being tied to him. That would prove disaterous were he to be lynched and found out for mafia.

[[M] Athena]

Saving him from the noose obviously would be a bit suspicious. "Letting" him die would have been the best course; having him accidentally saved by someone else was ideal. Whether or not this is what happened is uncertain.

Your logic is sound however, so should we start looking at Yukiko, myself and Namatame as the major suspects?

[[M] Gaius]

It was a tie breaker so I don't see how it would've backfired.

The ratio of town to scum is somewhere between 3:1 to 5:1. My maths skills are tapped out, so it's up to you to do the numbers. 4 scum, give or take 1?

[[M] Gaius]

I'm going to bed. Inactives, post please.

[[M] Athena]

We have a large game. Depending on roles, we could be facing a large mafia, or two. I know people are going to jump on my back for saying this, but we gotta look at it. This is one of the biggest games we've had in a while. 21 players; could happen!

[[M] Adama]

I think the mafia would be playing it safe in the beginning, considering how outnumbered they are.

Where is everyone though? There are a lot of inactives today, surely not everyone can be that busy.

[[M] Adama]

If a larger or even two mafias were to be in play, then that would certainly change things. If anything, I would venture it to be two of not just standard numbers. A larger mafia could probably stand to be a bit play a bit more risky.

[[M] Adama]

If a larger or even two mafias were to be in play, then that would certainly change things. If anything, I would venture it to be two if not just standard numbers. A larger mafia could probably stand to be a bit play a bit more risky.

Gah! This is what I meant.