Winners: Germany
They seem to be peaking at about the best time possible with their young squad. I can see someone like Ozil or Muller getting player of the tournament. They hold onto the ball well and score goals for fun. Spain's obvious problems are what you have already said. I think the dark horses in this tournament are France under their new manager. Blanc is bringing in fresh blood and they have been pretty solid since the last world cup.
As for England, they are hard to predict. If they stand a hope at winning they have to ovoid possession holding teams like Spain or Germany, where they will presumably resort to long ball tactics. If the Netherlands can get Van Persie on form or have Huntelaar banging them in as he has done then they will be dangerous as any. It's an open tournament, gotta love it. The only teams I can see winning it then are Spain, Germany, Netherlands, or France. Of course Ireland have a chance with Dickie Dunne at the back & midfield maestro Glenn Whelan bossing play.
Should be a great tournament. Make sure you do your fantasy teams lads!
McDonald's Euro 2012 Fantasy Football
League code to join: 63501-21271