I think Obama is probably going to win again, because Romney is not very moderate-friendly. But the latest polls have things decidedly close.

Not that I expect either candidate to do much besides exactly what Bush and Obama have done: spending exorbitant amounts of money while troutting on civil liberties. We might actually be better off in the long run having Romney win now while the Democrats still have a majority in the Senate, because an Obama win will very likely result in major Republican victories in 2016, absent economic miracles that Obama can take unjustified credit for. The thought of Paul Ryan in the White House with a Republican-controlled Congress makes Romney sound tame in comparison (I am still in no way voting for or supporting Romney).