Anniversary Mafia Game Thread - The Final Day

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

The Godfather is dead, remember?

Also, pay no attention to that entire post with all of the BOUs; I was trying to bait a trap for Luneth because I skimmed past the part where he realized Wedge was clear. If Luneth wasn't trying to convince us to lynch Wedge, that whole post is worthless.

[[M] Apollo]

I don't agree that Cid is definitely town. So the mafia poisoned him - that doesn't stop him from being a serial killer.

Only if the mafia knew even then that there was a SK in play, which we can't be 100% certain of even now. I believe the SK speculation arose from the night phase where only Galuf died, after the kill order on Cid was sent in. Where's your information coming from?

Are you disputing the possibility that Cid (or anyone else) is a serial killer purely based on the fact that the Mafia targeted Cid before there was speculation that an SK existed? If so, that's nonsense.
There were four kills in one night, and a bunch of mafia have been killed at night. There's certainly another killer out there, and they could well be an SK.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Are you disputing the possibility that Cid (or anyone else) is a serial killer purely based on the fact that the Mafia targeted Cid before there was speculation that an SK existed? If so, that's nonsense.

Quite the contrary; I favour the SK hypothesis. What I'm disputing is that the mafia would be trying to kill a SK before any evidence regarding its existence surfaced.

[[M] Apollo]

Query for the longtime players: Has Jack of All Trades been used before? If so, we can safely assume all remaining roles are ones that have been in play prior to now. It would be bootless for Jiro to give us 2 new roles when the first one to die would alert us to the possibility of a second. One, I could see, for mindsmurf reasons. Not two.

There have been types of Jacks previously (I recall it being called the Inventor in one game). I think that is a dangerous assumption, we have already had Gladiator and Spy, both of which have not been player before. There are likely to be more new roles.

The Godfather is dead, remember?

Also, pay no attention to that entire post with all of the BOUs; I was trying to bait a trap for Luneth because I skimmed past the part where he realized Wedge was clear. If Luneth wasn't trying to convince us to lynch Wedge, that whole post is worthless.

You suggested that the mafia have control over Stiltz, but it is inconceivable to imagine there being more than one godfather, or a lawyer, or even another made up role? Adding to what I said above Jiro is the creative type, and this does appear to be a role based mindsmurf (especially given the bus driver). I would expect more new roles.

[[M] Apollo]

Are you disputing the possibility that Cid (or anyone else) is a serial killer purely based on the fact that the Mafia targeted Cid before there was speculation that an SK existed? If so, that's nonsense.

Quite the contrary; I favour the SK hypothesis. What I'm disputing is that the mafia would be trying to kill a SK before any evidence regarding its existence surfaced.

Ah, fair enough. Although, Night 2 was evidence of another killing faction, so many deaths.
The mafia may have just targeted Cid because he was not a mafian, this action doesn't prove or disprove Cid being an SK. This is irrelevant to this point.
Also, if (pretty wild if, I know), if Faris is scum that appears innocent to regular cops, then the whole Cid being poisoned and you being the saviour is bogus (could mean you're in cahoots, could mean that they fooled you, who knows). While this is unlikely it is still possible.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Gladiator and spy are in the mafia wiki; one would not try to pull a surprise by using a role whose existence we could be expected to be apprised of. Not impossible by any means, but I don't buy it.

Regarding duplicate roles, given that we are down to less than 50% of the original participants, it is statistically probable that a duplicate would have surfaced ere now were one to exist.

New roles: I raised the possibility specifically so that someone would promptly put it to bed. Why is this the only time I've ever raised a thought when it wasn't immediately pilloried? Do you people have some way of knowing when I'm trying to manipulate you?

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

The mafia may have just targeted Cid because he was not a mafian, this action doesn't prove or disprove Cid being an SK. This is irrelevant to this point.

I wouldn't worry about the SK just yet anyways; There's still a fair enough chance the mafs will take the SK out for us.
I think there would have to be at least 5 mafia for a game with 23 players, and we've only taken out 3. Let's try to bag at least one more before worrying about the SK.

[Jiro]

The game started with 25 players :mog:

[[M] Apollo]

Gladiator and spy are in the mafia wiki; one would not try to pull a surprise by using a role whose existence we could be expected to be apprised of. Not impossible by any means, but I don't buy it.

Sorry, I thought when you said "Has Jack of All Trades been used before? If so, we can safely assume all remaining roles are ones that have been in play prior to now" you were asking if roles (such as the Jack) had been used before on EoFF, not if they existed on the Wiki. My bad

Regarding duplicate roles, given that we are down to less than 50% of the original participants, it is statistically probable that a duplicate would have surfaced ere now were one to exist.

This is a fair call, all I'm saying is that one could arise in the next 50%.

New roles: I raised the possibility specifically so that someone would promptly put it to bed. Why is this the only time I've ever raised a thought when it wasn't immediately pilloried? Do you people have some way of knowing when I'm trying to manipulate you?

With this many power roles, and Jiro being Jiro, I expect, nay, I demand there be new roles in play!

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

The game started with 25 players :mog:

That doesn't change my thinking; if I were putting one of these together, I'd go with a maf:town ratio of 1:5, rounded up. The math is the same.

I'm not coming out and saying "only 2 more left guys" because I'm not a telepath. Just positing another hypothesis for the rest of the players, mafia and town alike, to fall on like the rabid wolves they truly are <3

[[M] Apollo]

The mafia may have just targeted Cid because he was not a mafian, this action doesn't prove or disprove Cid being an SK. This is irrelevant to this point.

I wouldn't worry about the SK just yet anyways; There's still a fair enough chance the mafs will take the SK out for us.
I think there would have to be at least 5 mafia for a game with 23 players, and we've only taken out 3. Let's try to bag at least one more before worrying about the SK.

Agreed. My main point there was that there was no point to make there. I'm keeping my eyes open for that other killing faction, but we can't be sure who it is though, can we?

Or can we?
Faris. You've posted today, but who did you watch last night? WHY HAVE YOU NOT TOLD US?!!
Tell me you visited Setzer and saw who killed that scum!
Oh, if you did see, keep it mum for now. Let them kill off the mafia before we go ousting them. Who knows what their alignment will be.

[[M] Walter - Smart Dad]

The mafia may have just targeted Cid because he was not a mafian, this action doesn't prove or disprove Cid being an SK. This is irrelevant to this point.

I wouldn't worry about the SK just yet anyways; There's still a fair enough chance the mafs will take the SK out for us.
I think there would have to be at least 5 mafia for a game with 23 players, and we've only taken out 3. Let's try to bag at least one more before worrying about the SK.

Agreed. My main point there was that there was no point to make there. I'm keeping my eyes open for that other killing faction, but we can't be sure who it is though, can we?

Or can we?
Faris. You've posted today, but who did you watch last night? WHY HAVE YOU NOT TOLD US?!!
Tell me you visited Setzer and saw who killed that scum!
Oh, if you did see, keep it mum for now. Let them kill off the mafia before we go ousting them. Who knows what their alignment will be.

Of course I tracked Setzer last night due to Rydia telling us to lynch him yesterday, but I didn't come up with anything for a result. He is after all a freakin' ninja, so you'd expect he'd be all sneaky avoiding being tracked by someone like me. And I don't think you understand my role. I can't see what the person I've tracked does, or who's been targeting them. I'm only aware of who they targeted, and nothing else.

[[M] Walter - Smart Dad]

And I didn't get to tell earlier because I was busy eating and partying with my folks.

[[M] Apollo]

Ok, figured I'd recap on what Biggs did earlier and try to understand the night actions. I've just taken what Biggs wrote and copied some bits, but altered others where it was my opinion (or where new facts have been released). I'll add Biggs' summary here in spoilers, and mine below that.
Sorry if it is confusing. It is confusing.

(SPOILER)

I'm going to try and make sense of all the kills now.

Night 1
Laguna - Serah was targeted by Yuffie for a kill, but Laguna was killed. Since it was Night 1 Laguna likely protected himself. The probable scenario is that the Bus Driver swapped Laguna and Serah, Serah got protection while Laguna got the bullet. That also explains why Serah never got a 'report' from Wedge.
I'm going to assume the mafia has two kills, the poison and a night kill. Or there are two mafias. Or mafia and SK. The other deaths don't make sense otherwise. On this night, one killer tried to shoot Nocits while Galuf poisoned Quistis.

Night 2
Quistis - Died of Galuf's poison
Serah - No clue. Standard mafia hit?
Kain - Again no clue.
Quina - Too many unexplained deaths this day for there to not be at least two killers out there.

Night 3
Galuf - This one is the hardest of all to explain. We have a vig (standard vig and daytime vig? seriously?) or something else is afoot. It's not a Paranoid Gun Owner, since we know he targeted Cid (assuming Faris is truthful). Rydia targeted Cid on Night 4 and lived to tell the tale.
How did one scum die this night and no town? So the mafia used their hit to poison Cid. Fine. But this night is sandwiched between nights with 4 and 3 deaths. Doesn't make any sense! Someone must have tried for Noctis again but why would the mafia try the same thing twice?

Night 4
Noctis - My guess here is Mafia Ninja. There are no Mafia Goons remember, so Ninja is a likely role they have.
Yuffie - I think the "second killer" killed Yuffie.
Refia - ?????

Night 1
Laguna - Serah was targeted by Yuffie for a kill, but Laguna was killed. Since it was Night 1 Laguna likely protected himself. The probable scenario is that the Bus Driver swapped Laguna and Serah, Serah got protection while Laguna got the bullet. That also explains why Serah never got a 'report' from Wedge.
I'm going to assume the mafia has two kills, the poison and a night kill. Or there are two mafias. Or mafia and SK. The other deaths don't make sense otherwise. On this night, one killer tried to shoot Nocits while Galuf poisoned Quistis.

Night 2
Quistis - Died of Galuf's poison
Serah - No clue. Standard mafia hit? - IMO likely to be mafia hit due to 'confirmed' status as gov.
Kain, Quina - No clue. Would mean that there are two other killing factions. Yuffie shot night one, Sazh never shot and Biggs didn't shoot until later on. That's three townies with guns. I'm inclined to believe that at least one of these two deaths was third party based on the odds. (which raises the question, if one is an SK like third party, what was the other killer? - I think it may have been another one shot given the lack of unexplained deaths later on)

Night 3
Galuf - I'm inclined to believe that this was the same 3rd party/vigilante. Galuf would have targeted someone this night, either it was Cid (who was then saved by Rydia), or it was Noctis or Yuffie.

Night 4
Noctis - Likely killed by the Mafia ninja, but could have been poisoned on night 3.
Yuffie - Either killed by the 'other killer', killed by the mafia, or poisoned on night 3.
Refia - Shot by Biggs the Paranoid Gun Owner.

Night 5
Leila - Likely killed by the mafia before she had the chance to get an innocent (guilty) result on some scum.
Setzer - Probably killed by the 'other killer'.


Any thoughts/corrections? (I understand that I've put a lot of possibilities for Night 4, but I think we need to take all possibilities into account and go with the most likely one)

[[M] Walter - Smart Dad]

Your thoughts on Night 5 seems quite possible. In fact, I'll have to say that I agree with you 100%. I doubt a mafia would target one of their own, hence Leila was their main target for last night. As for Setzer, he is likely the target of another killing faction, maybe it's an SK, but who knows. You have brought up a possibility of a 2nd mafia earlier, have you not? How can we know there's more than one mafia to deal with?