Here's my explanation for the votes.
Someone mentioned the "active inactives", or something like that (it was Craig or Rocky I think). Basically it's the people who aren't truly inactive, but make only a few fluff posts that say one or two things and then go off into nothing. Those people are the hardest to get a read on since they're never around enough to answer questions, but never absent enough to be an eyesore. Liam, Smith, and Cage were some of those players at that time (still are really) and that's why I put a vote on each of them. When mafia get votes they start to get nervous, and when they get nervous they change their behavior. The beauty of vote swapping is that the vote doesn't count (so it doesn't really matter in the end), but it's still on the record and may bring some players out of the woodwork.
My vote for Seagal came from this explanation I made, and as an early Day 1 vote I don't have much to elaborate (and I've since changed it to someone I suspect more).
My vote for Bruce Willis was based on my first point above (he was also one of those players) and the fact that when he finally showed up he spent his time posting macros with Sam Jackson. It reminded me of another time a mafia player used a similar tactic to fly under the radar.
My vote on Sam Jackson (current vote) was based on my explanation made not too long ago. He was trying to use my vote switching to fish for my role (why would you fish for roles on Day 1? Mafia aren't going to roleclaim and outing town roles so early certainly doesn't help us). He used the term "Day Kill", while a joke, it may imply he has a "Night Kill" (see Relm for this exact thing happening last mafia). And finally, his aforementioned macro session with Bruce Willis which only served to be filler. I don't trust anyone in these games, but I generally trust those posting in character the least because it's easy to hide behind your "amusing" posts.