OK, "thinking out loud" so that if my underlying assumptions are bulltrout someone can point it out.

OK, so Seagal's flip makes Sammy all but confirmed town at this point. The scum knew this too, and would have shot him. Docs can't self-protect, so we have a regular doc or something that can act as a doc (like a JK) as well.

The chances of a 2nd mafia or another nightkill-enabled thir party are also pretty slim unless Sammy protected against the NK that wasn't targeting him, the second kill was roleblocked, or both NKs targeted him.

Since we are up to 16 players, we pretty much have to have 4 scum unless this game his incredibly mountainous, which means my prior hypothesis about post-start additions being confTown is shot. At least one of the new additions pretty much has to be scum.

Am I missing anything?