Official SSB4 Newcomer Bets Thread

[Evastio]

Welcome to the Official SSB4 Newcomer Bet Thread!! In this thread we list characters that we think are likely to be in Super Smash Bros. 4, stick them on our betting lists, and see just how accurate our newcomer lists are and see who's the most accurate in the end!!

The official rules are as follows:

- we guess newcomers only and we don't guess character cuts
- Melee veterans that were cut from Brawl do not count as newcomers and will not be accounted for, except for Mewtwo's new form as either a standalone character or a Sheik/Zero Suit Samus type transformation
- Everyone starts at 100 Points
- A -5 Penalty for each new character revealed for late joiners of the game will be implemented
- The only placeholder guess that is allowed currently is a 6th Generation Pokemon, with other placeholder slots being allowed as more games from existing Smash Bros. series are announced/new series that are likely to have playable characters in Smash Bros are announced. Swapping/adding placeholder guesses that this rule applies to does not count towards the swapping/adding guess limit
- Every correctly guessed newcomer is +10 points.
- Every newcomer that is guessed but isn't in the final roster is -10 points
- Exceptions to the above 2 rules include:
---- Third party characters, who are +20 if correctly guessed and -20 if incorrectly guessed
---- Specific characters that were swapped from a placeholder guess (Eg: changing 6th Gen Pokemon slot to Mewtwo's new form) or characters with a very recent debut in a game (new characters from games that are announced from 2013 and onward), who are +20 if guessed correctly and -10 if incorrectly guessed
---- Placeholder guesses (Eg: 6th Gen Pokemon, new forms that debut in Gen 6 for Gen 1-5 Pokemon count), which are +2 if correctly guessed and -10 if incorrectly guessed
---- Pokemon Trainer type newcomers (people that are able to swap between three Pokemon), who are +5 for the right elemental order (eg: correctly guessing fire as base form starter, grass as intermediate form starter, and water as final form starter), +10 for the right Pokemon Generation, and +2 for correctly guessing there's another Pokemon trainer newcomer and neither of the above two are right. -10 if there aren't any Pokemon Trainer type newcomers whatsoever.
- Every newcomer that does show up that you didn't guess is -5
- Swapping/adding/removing guesses is unlimited before the first SSB4 newcomer reveal (which is likely on June 11). After that, only two guess swaps/additions/removals (meaning you can only do those three things twice) are allowed, unless a new game from a Nintendo franchise gets announced (see rule 5), in that case you're allowed one free guess addition/swap for that game franchise
- Guesses will be closed 1 month before SSB4 gets released in the country it first gets released in. However, if there are any leaks of a full roster after the demo stations are available and they start showing up on many prominent sites, bets will be closed then.

So the general idea for this betting game is to be as accurate as possible, since guessed newcomers that don't make it in as well as newcomers that make it in that you didn't guess will be counted against you. Remember, you're free to change your bets as much as you want before the first SSB4 newcomers are revealed.

Rules may be subject to change in the future, but we'll try to implement changes in a fair way so they won't put anyone at an unfair advantage/disadvantage.

Anyways my bets are as follows:

Takamaru
Shulk Little Mac
Chrom
(6th Gen Pokemon)
Mega Man
Shulk
Palutena