Not lynching Jiro nets us:
a Mafia target tonight (probably rolecop since him living makes him suspect tomorrow and thus Mafia gets a random Townie today and a Jailkeep/Townie tomorrow)
OR
a role-claiming Mafia with balls of lead jump around ninny-like because he talked himself out of a lynch (or let me talk us out of it)

Lynching Jiro gets us:
A dead Vanilla Townie
OR
A dead Jailkeeper
OR
A dead scum

I am not really feeling favorably at this point, but maybe there's an option/opinion I am missing.