EoFF XXVII Game Thread - Day Five - Showdown in the Velvet Room

[[M] Harry - Dad's Dad]

But couldn't you do that without voting?

[[M] Eizen]

This game is based on far more than just mathematical decisions. Regardless of the intent of the lynch, the fact remains that it was basically a random lynch. Sure it generated some discussion, but it also made absolutely no sense to lynch her specifically for the reasons people gave.

The less information available, the more mathematics and probability must be relied upon. And we will never have less information than we did on day one. It's also worth mentioning that you keep stating everyone voted for her simply because of her choice not to lynch. While true for some, I have stated repeatedly that this was not my reasoning. Her voting no lynch was a bit suspicious but certainly no more so than any of the wild accusations you've thrown around based on nearly zero information. My problem with her choice stemmed from her flawed analysis of the probabilities and the inherent risk in any of the decisions. Her sticking to her analysis after I pointed out it's flaws simply made me even more suspicious, hence I did not change my vote in the few times I was able to check in between maintenance checks.

Obviously in hindsight her error was likely a human one, sticking to a flawed analysis in the face of stronger arguments. Humans are more prone to logical fallacies than anti-shadow weapons such as myself. But as I said, there was little concrete evidence to go on at the time. The fallout of that lynching has had the desired effect of generating a great deal more discussion and data however, so her death will not be in vain as it may very well save the rest of SEES.

[[M] Kurt - Cool Dad]

*sniff sniff*

[I figure this is faster because if Minato comes in and only skims the thread, he'll still see the vote.]

[[M] Jeff - Single Dad]

Except you didn't originally believe it to be a bad call. You said "I've gotten a little more suspicious of a certain other person" before voting Yukari. It wasn't until 4 hours later that you suddenly realized it was a "bad idea" and decided to change your vote when it was already inevitable that she was going to be lynched.

Had you stood by your initial suspicion and not changed your vote, I would be more willing to believe that you simply made a mistake despite believing you were correct.

It's easier to say this in hindsight, but I thought it was fairly obvious Yukari was not mafia. She put in a considerable amount of effort towards justifying a no lynch vote, yet people used this extremely minor point against her. While I also agree that not lynching ultimately doesn't help town, she boldly chose to take the other side of the argument. She was heavily outnumbered, yet she did so willingly. Almost no mafia player would ever do that on the first day of the game.

And I picked up on that eventually. I don't stick by my initial suspicion unconditionally if the situation changes. Plus, my putting a vote on Yukari was not made with the intention of getting her lynched. It was made with the intention of putting her on the spot and drawing more information out of her (for which purpose 2-3 votes are plenty which is why I was so surprised to see 5 freaking votes on her), and it's through that very information that I came to believe she was not a Mafia eventually. From my perspective, the people who were still stuck believing she was a Mafia by the end of the day are the suspicious ones, not the other way round.

Either way, if you still suspect me, that's fine. I just hope your suspicion of me won't blind you to seeing things from my point of view.

[[M] Harry - Dad's Dad]

*sniff sniff*

[I figure this is faster because if Minato comes in and only skims the thread, he'll still see the vote.]

I guess that makes sense. Sorry if I seem a bit slow, I'm only 10 after all. Guess I'm just suspicious of everyone, so I'm overanalysing things.

[[M] Eizen]

But couldn't you do that without voting?

I believe the carrot and stick metaphor which humans frequently refer to is apt here. Simply asking people to speak and provide information will not always work. Frequently they need the motivation that comes from the promise of reward or the threat of punishment. Simply asking Minato-san to participate more is unlikely to be sufficient to make him feel much pressure to answer, and people under pressure also tend to make mistakes over time.

So while my vote is not yet final, which should be obvious as any of us can unvote at any time prior to days end and change our minds, this is a direct challenge to participate more so I can gain more information to begin theorizing about his allegiance. He could very likely convince me that he is not a member of Strega, or at least a less likely candidate than some others, or he may convince me that he is a prime suspect. We shall see.

But essentially, as I do not possess a proverbial carrot with which to tempt people, I must resort to the stick. Though I suppose one could say the proverbial carrot in this instance is unvoting. Perhaps this metaphor doesn't translate quite as directly as I would like after all.

[[M] Trevor - Gay Dad]

I am wondering why people jumped on Theodore at the end of day one. It was just two jumped on votes with the intent to have more people jumping on? They really gave no real reason for it, then day two it was just business as usual for them and jumped on again with no real reason for it.

[[M] D'Anna]

Quick question, Ken. How many townies are there?

[[M] Jeff - Single Dad]

Whoa, all those new posts. Ken, putting votes on someone to pressurize them into defending themselves is a perfectly valid move. That's why I voted for Yukari, but I'm asking Theo about it because at the time of his vote Yukari already had four other votes on her; more pressure was hardly necessary at that point, and her demeanor was already pointing towards her being innocent.

[[M] Eizen]

I guess that makes sense. Sorry if I seem a bit slow, I'm only 10 after all. Guess I'm just suspicious of everyone, so I'm overanalysing things.

It is only natural to overanalyze things Ken-kun. We have all been placed in a difficult position by our enemies and we must always be conscious of the fact that not everything which appears suspicious is, and our enemies can be trying to bluff us on multiple levels.

[[M] Harry - Dad's Dad]

Just to let you all know that I'm going to be unavailable for at least the next few hours. Bye, everybody!

[[M] Joe - Army Dad]

Hey everyone I'm up. Was out for drinks last night and decided not to drink and play mafia.

Alihiko you yell you claim all your moves, yet demonize anyone who makes any other move. You were the one that wanted to lynch people on how they said hello if I'm not mistaken. That being said I don't think your mafia even though you have been very wishy washy. I think you are just playing aggressive.

I'm still catching up with this thread but I saw this and aigis comment earlier.

I am inclined to agree with it here. I think akihiro is just super aggressive l and points fingers a lot. I'm not the biggest fan of this tactic but I don't believe he's mafia. That puts him in the spotlight too much. Unless like aigis said, maybe this is just a weird strategy.

Still catching up though. I'll give more thoughts as I read but I thought I'd share my thoughts here.

[[M] Joe - Army Dad]

Aggressive and is* sorry phone typos I keep making!

[[M] Apollo]

I initially stated that Yukari as Town would necessitate Theodore as Mafia. I still believe he is, but I'm far from 100%. I would like an answer as to why he voted Yukari. As has been stated, "to put pressure on her" is not sufficient, as she already had a great many votes. This is my reason for suspecting Theodore above all else right now.

No deaths in the night. Personally, I think Shinjiro was targeted by both Mafia and Doctor. If this is correct, it means for certain that we have a clever Doctor. Good work! I'm not sure what the Compulsive aspect means, though... :/

However - working from my hefty assumption - that doesn't illuminate anything about the Mafia. If Theo is Mafia and Mafia is dumb, they would target Shinjiro for bringing suspicion onto Theodore. But if Theodore is Town and Mafia are clever, they would also target Shinjiro, knowing they are reasonably likely to get a free Town Lynch again. This is the reason for my doubt about Theodore being Mafia. I believe we have a very crafty Mafia here, and I'm not certain they would throw one of their under the bus at this stage.

This all presupposes that Shinjiro is Town, however, which is not 100%, either. My doubt about this is due to the fact that Shinjiro has been very successful at leading votes. I will always find that posts that attempt to manipulate, persuade and coerce people into a certain line of thinking are suspicious, but ultimately I've not seen anything really like that from him. It's still something of a red flag for me, however.

I apologize that I can't be the most active of players. I have numerous commitments that limit my time here. I hope this is answer enough for you all. I do read through every post fully, though.

[[M] Joe - Army Dad]

Okay i'm at a computer now. And ugh even my correction made no sense. I promise I can properly put sentences together normally. Stupid phone.

I didn't throw a vote on at the end of the day yesterday because no one had convinced me that they were scummy. The bandwagon was very concerning and I don't like how quickly that progressed. I was able to check it briefly and saw just a few votes and when I came back it was an avalanche! I don't know if this was a mafia tactic or just town being misled. Either way, I was not a fan.

The reasoning used for those votes were pretty thin, in my opinion. Which of course has me raising an eyebrow at everyone who pushed for it.

Shinjiro, I'm not sure about because they did take their vote off of Yukari when the bandwagon started gathering steam. So I think they were just generating discussion and next thing they knew, bam bam two more votes. It is strange how Theo and Aigis just chain voted right after the vote count. I don't know if this was planned? That put Yukari at 5/6 at that time. There are supposed to be 3 mafia right? So maybe a third was supposed to end the day or maybe they thought if they push it someone else may come in and seal the deal? Shinjiro seemed to notice that pattern and quickly took their vote off to bump it back down to 4/6. I don't know if that's what happened, they they were mafia working to create a situation or not but I wouldn't ignore it either.

Minato is suspiciously missing a lot too. I mean I know I haven't been as active but most everyone I think has checked in today at least. So aigis' vote for minato to try to pull them out isn't that alarming to me.

I've got a few more social obligations for the day though so I'll have to be back later with more. Hopefully by then Minato checks in.