EoFF XXVII Game Thread - Day Five - Showdown in the Velvet Room

[[M] Joe - Army Dad]

OH WAIT ha, as i was typing this, there's minato, scratch that last bit.

[[M] Apollo]

Hiiiiii~ xD

[[M] Eizen]

Shinjiro seemed to notice that pattern and quickly took their vote off to bump it back down to 4/6. I don't know if that's what happened, they they were mafia working to create a situation or not but I wouldn't ignore it either.

It may be extremely paranoid to suggest this, but in a scenario where Strega are extremely intelligent and good at predicting human behaviour we cannot discount the possibility that if Shinjiro is Strega that it was a double blind. Though most humans are not prone to thinking more than one or two moves ahead so attempting to peel back layers of intent and obfuscation beyond that are often more self-defeating than productive as extreme doubt is debilitating.

I've got a few more social obligations for the day though so I'll have to be back later with more.

This seems a reasonable statement. Your sister did always tend to be more committed to her work than you are. I wonder if your many dates with Minato are cause for concern.

Was that funny? Did I successfully tell a joke?

[[M] Apollo]

I will always find that posts that attempt to manipulate, persuade and coerce people into a certain line of thinking are suspicious, but ultimately I've not seen anything really like that from him. It's still something of a red flag for me, however.

It may be extremely paranoid to suggest this, but in a scenario where Strega are extremely intelligent and good at predicting human behaviour we cannot discount the possibility that if Shinjiro is Strega that it was a double blind. Though most humans are not prone to thinking more than one or two moves ahead so attempting to peel back layers of intent and obfuscation beyond that are often more self-defeating than productive as extreme doubt is debilitating.

This is a textbook example of planting doubt. Your purpose is to make people feel that Shinjiro is suspicious, but you use vague and ambiguous language to ensure a clean get-out when he comes up Town. This is not the first time you have done this, and it is unsurprising that - for the third time now - you are aligned with Theodore.

Theo is arguably the more obvious Mafia, but you are certainly the most dangerous. I suspect you are the Roleblocker, though that is mere guesswork.

##vote: Aigis

[[M] Apollo]

I'm going to bed now. I would appreciate the chance to wake up and explain any questions you might have in the morning.

If I am lynched in the night, know that you will not lose anything of value other than a man on your side.

[[M] Eizen]

This is a textbook example of planting doubt. Your purpose is to make people feel that Shinjiro is suspicious, but you use vague and ambiguous language to ensure a clean get-out when he comes up Town.

I'm actually not convinced that Shinjiro is suspicious, merely pointing out a fact that people must keep in mind at all times while also describing a thought that runs through my head when considering the possible guilt or innocence of anyone here. As far as I'm concerned, nearly everyone here is still highly suspicious with perhaps Akihiko-senpai being the most suspicious to me overall.

This is not the first time you have done this, and it is unsurprising that - for the third time now - you are aligned with Theodore.

Considering the only time my decisions were in agreement with Theodore at all was in my lynch vote I'm not sure where you get three from. And I've explained my reasons for being suspicious of Yukari-chan. Reasons quite different from Theodores ultimately (though based on the same information). I am left to wonder where the other two instances of this imaginary alliance you accuse me of come from?

I suspect you are the Roleblocker, though that is mere guesswork.

I'm curious on what basis you're coming to that conclusion. Surely it's not just a random stab in the dark on your part.

For the moment, I'm going to leave my vote as is. Your sudden and unfounded belief of an alliance between myself and Theodore despite not feeling the same as him about Shinjiro and being upfront with my suspicions of everyone is more than a little strange. Any doubts I express about who people are are me literally vocalizing my own personal doubts. Your sudden certainty of my guilt seems very strange to me and is, frankly, quite far off base.

[[M] Eizen]

I'm going to bed now. I would appreciate the chance to wake up and explain any questions you might have in the morning.

If I am lynched in the night, know that you will not lose anything of value other than a man on your side.

We still have, by my count, more than 24 hours left in which to decide on our votes. Are you saying you will not be back until after that time has elapsed? It seems a fairly significant stretch of time in which to be absent, and only makes me more suspicious of you leveling such a decisive accusation only to disappear rather than have to answer to challenges of it.

[[M] Trevor - Gay Dad]

My biggest suspicion is Minato. You seem to have a lot of information not given out by anyone at this point. You even have gone as far as saying who is the roleblocker. It leaves me to believe that you are mafia. Not sure though as you may be town with a role and know something we don't.

[[M] Harry - Dad's Dad]

I'm back everyone, for a little while anyway. That homework doesn't write itself, after all!

For the moment, I'm going to leave my vote as is.

You see, this is why I find the whole "This isn't a REAL vote, I'm just trying to draw you out, lol" thing dodgy. It's looking more and more like you always meant to lynch Minato, but voted for him in a way that you thought didn't look suspicious. Voting Minato isn't necessarily suspicious in itself, but doing it in a way that tries to hide the fact that you were at least strongly considering getting him lynched DOES seem suspicious to me.

[[M] Apollo]

All of the information I have has merely come from surveying the posts and finding patterns. It's just logical deduction; not infallible, but certainly our best hope. Remember that, when forming conclusions, you must take into account all the evidence. Every new post must be read only after every other post has been reviewed, time and time again. I worked from the assumption that everyone was Mafia, but ultimately could only narrow it down to two most likely contenders, due to the fact that everyone else lacks any clear direction.

I actually had a think in the shower, and retract my suspicion of roleblocker. That is most likely in the hands of the third - and quieter - Mafia. I believe Aigis is a Goon. If she is, then Theodore is also. I have reasoned this due to the fact that all of their posts are aligned; there is no distinct leader, but both following each others' lead, with the third tailing on behind, so as to avoid obvious grouping. Everyone else has, for the most part, flitted about.

I will say that this isn't the first time a Townie has provided concise reasoning for their decision and been suspected.

My mistake on the length of days.

[[M] Eizen]

I actually wasn't planning to vote for Minato-san before. I expected it may get him talking but not really produce much discussion of value. I still may not vote for him as there are a few people I'm considering as well and was considering more strongly before, but the sudden and swift accusation of me based on things that didn't actually happen was unexpected to say the least. I know a couple of people expressed some mild suspicion of me before because of my Yukari vote and I can't help but wonder if this is some attempt to link me to the suspicion that has been directed at Theodore, or perhaps redirect that suspicion from him to me. But then, I have the benefit of knowing I'm a member of SEES on which to base my analysis. You have only my word and I don't blame anyone for finding this fishy.

Though to be honest, if I were to simply unvote him now I'm sure some would feel I was just trying to weasel my way out of the spot light, or find some other reason to find that suspicious that I haven't thought of. With regard to my vote for him, I'm presently in a no win situation whether I change it or leave it so I may as well leave it particularly, again, since his accusations seem to largely come out of nowhere. I want to hear his explanations before I think about changing said vote. I could chalk his suspicion of an alliance with Theodore up to a simple mistake (he does see agreements which I don't recall ever expressing), but jumping to me being the roleblocker comes out of nowhere. I can see no evidence that would justify a person suspecting the role of anyone outside simply SEES and Strega alliance just yet so I would like an explanation.

[[M] Apollo]

To be fair, Ken, voting for a passive member is a completely fine tactic, and not one that I find particularly suspicious.

[[M] D'Anna]

Theo is arguably the more obvious Mafia, but you are certainly the most dangerous. I suspect you are the Roleblocker, though that is mere guesswork.

What an odd thing to suggest. I genuinely can't tell if you're hinting or not.

I'm back everyone, for a little while anyway. That homework doesn't write itself, after all!

Are you going to answer my question?

[[M] Harry - Dad's Dad]

Are you going to answer my question?

What question was that again, Aki?

[[M] Eizen]

Again, I'm not seeing how my posts precisely align with Theodores. Aside from the vote we've done nothing but express some suspicions of a few people. Suspicions multiple people have shared and waffled on as well no less.

And the roleblocker accusation is still remarkably strange. Probably one of the strangest things I've seen anyone say here. I'd still like to know why you were lead to believe that at all? I'm sure most of us would agree, even after re-reading this thread many times, that there simply isn't enough information to go on for that. Unless you do have some information none of us have?