EoFF XXVII Game Thread - Day Five - Showdown in the Velvet Room

[[M] Apollo]

If Theodore comes up Town (which he won't), I would certainly be after Shinjiro, as they exist in opposition to one another.

I doubt anyone else would, though. They would probably just lynch you for being unpredictable as hell, which is a very Mafia trait.

I personally think you're just trying to stir as many pots as possible to gauge responses - you've attacked... I think everyone in the game at some point. This is a very well-established tactic for drawing out Mafia - Theo and Aigis completely fell apart when I accused them. When attacked, Town panic in a different way to Mafia, which I think you know. And I think that's your game, more than anything.

I want to draw attention to the fact that the three people more aligned with one another than any other selection of characters have all voted Akihiko - their loudest opponent.

I appreciate where Junpei is coming from. Mitsuru and Elizabeth have a lot in common, but not nearly as much. Myself and Elizabeth, also, but again - not nearly as much as Aigis, Theodore and Koromaru. Shinjiro, Junpei and Ken are the only ones I would gamble are Town, if only because they have been very inconsistent with their opinions - a very Town trait.

I strongly doubt I will survive the night. I suspect it will either be you or me and, as said above, you are just too easy a lynch target to waste a night kill on.

[[M] Apollo]

Glad to see players putting a lot of thought into their impressions and stances on all the different players and conflicts. I've expressed my suspicion of Theodore and Aigis before, and I'm sticking with that for now. If Theodore turns out to be Town, then of course it's time to re-evaluate everything from the ground up.

To respond to Minato's earlier theories regarding the doc and Mafia. Your theory sounds plausible, though if the Mafia did target me that says very little about Theodore's alignment, since the argument "he talked against you so you killed him" is so easily played straight or subverted that either way works; it's very possible the Mafia simply planned on convincing everyone with ~words~ the following day.

Also, let's not forget the possibility, unlikely as it is, that the Mafia deliberately did not target anyone last night so the compulsive doctor would think the one he protected was targeted and put his faith in him. It would be an incredibly daring move though, so it's most likely not the case. Just wanted to bring it up.

The reason I think they targeted you is because I think they are playing a fairly standard game. Opponents are the default targets for standards Mafiosos. I genuinely think it's just as simple as that in this case.

[[M] Adama]

Two people seem totally convinced I'm Mafia. Fun.

[[M] Adama]

Minato and Akihiko, can you both please go into more detail about your conclusions? Can you explain why you believe Town and Mafia behave they way they do?

And Minato, why are you even considering why type of strategy the Mafia is going for when we've yet to grab one?

[[M] D'Anna]

So Minato, you were saying that the mafia would move to lynch me, not that I would be an easy lynch for you personally. Your wording definitely confused me.

At this point in time I think Theodore is the safest bet. Someone can investigate Minato should Theodore flip town. As it stands right now there are two real groups that could potentially be mafia.

Group 1: Theodore, Aigis, Koromaru (and possibly Elizabeth). Group 2: Minato, Mitsuru, Elizabeth.

[[M] Adama]

Not to dissuade the consideration of strategy and tactics in voting, but both of you guys seem pretty self-assured you've got things figured out without actually doing a strong job of detailing as to WHY you're so confident.

I mean, if killing me would help sort out and rationalize people's behavior, go ahead. Akihiko and Aigis, and to a lesser extent Mitsuru, Minato, and Koromaru, all have invested stakes on how I flip based on their interactions with me and who of those who have agreed with or accused so if the town reaches they conclusion I'm willing to bite the bullet.

That being said, I still think Akihiko is scummy.

[[M] Adama]

Why would either of those groups be assuredly composed of Mafia? And why didn't you include yourself in either of them? xD

[[M] Adama]

I mean arguably the first thing the Mafia tries to avoid is voting consistently together and agreeing all the time.

[[M] Adama]

I'm taking a nap. If I'm going to be dead by the time I wake, fair enough. Maybe some craziness will be sorted out as a consequence of it.

[[M] Kurt - Cool Dad]

Woof!

[Those are some very specific groups for this early in the game.]

[[M] D'Anna]

Minato and Akihiko, can you both please go into more detail about your conclusions? Can you explain why you believe Town and Mafia behave they way they do?

I literally spent 2 hours on my Manifesto, and came up with another conclusion post that explained my reasons.

Why would either of those groups be assuredly composed of Mafia? And why didn't you include yourself in either of them? xD

There's no 100% "assurance." That said, there's a pretty high probability.

Also, why would I include myself in either party? I'm not in any voting group whatsoever, and I'm not mafia. Makes no sense.

[[M] Eizen]

• Criticizes Shinjiro’s vote as being a pure provocation and attempt to elicit more information. However, she literally ignored the fact that Theodore’s vote had literally the exact same purpose.

I told him his attempt to pressure information out of me wouldn't work because I didn't have any insights at the time. That's not criticizing his attempt to use a vote to pressure information out of me.

• Stated she had different reasons for voting Yukari than Theodore, but this was not true. She also seemed very familiar with Theodore’s reasoning.

He said he voted for her because of the no lynch vote. I voted for her because her reasoning on why a no lynch vote was a good idea was flawed and seemed suspect to me. Seems like a different reason to me. And Theodore outright stated his reasons so, yes, I was somewhat familiar with his stated reasons given that I know how to read.

• Continues to suspect me after Theodore has voted for me.

Given how bad your analyses have generally been, you're erratic behaviour, and now your stating things I did which are not actually true, I can't imagine why myself and several others still find you highly suspicious.

Akihilo-senpai, at no point have I actually contradicted myself. I have been quite consistent in explaining my thinking and suspicions and did not criticize Shinjiro-senpai for voting to elicit information as you seem to believe for no apparent reason. Once again I'm left to believe you're either trying to provoke a reaction, have terrible reading comprehension, or are deliberately trying to invent suspicion. Given the pattern for the latter I'm leaning mafia in your case, but I think enough people are feeling the same way that you don't need my vote right now to help you get lynched. You're managing just fine on your own. Repeatedly asking loaded questions where any answer would make any person in the game regardless of their apparent innocence seem guilty really doesn't help your case either. You keep trying to manufacture gotcha moments to make people seem suspicious when anyone answering would seem just as suspicious, regardless of who they were or their answer.

I can understand questioning everyone and everything that's said, but deliberately asking questions where it's impossible to give an answer that would satisfy you? That's not questioning things, that's making whoever you want seem questionable. I imagine the reason you backed off Ken has more to do with that attempt being so unbelievably obvious and poorly thought out than anything else. Everyone saw right through it making you worried and you backed off immediately.

For the moment I'm actually going to ##unvote: Minato.For the moment it seems the votes are settling on two main candidates so voting Minato wouldn't serve that much purpose at this point. I'm still not convinced he's innocent, but I think there may be some more pressing suspects at the moment.

In terms of activity Stupei is probably my biggest concern right now. He's been around but hasn't contributed a lot in most of his posts. I'm having a tough time getting a read on him with my analysis algorithms at the moment and that will never sit well with me. I also don't really think I agree with his suspicion of Mitsuru. I don't know quite where I stand on Elizabeth yet, but I haven't seen anything from Mitsuru yet that makes me explicitly think she's Strega. Perhaps I'm wrong, but if I had a gut I think it would be pointing that way for the moment.

Also, let's not forget the possibility, unlikely as it is, that the Mafia deliberately did not target anyone last night so the compulsive doctor would think the one he protected was targeted and put his faith in him. It would be an incredibly daring move though, so it's most likely not the case. Just wanted to bring it up.

This had actually occurred to me as well. Like you I think it's unlikely simply because the odds of the doc guessing the right target at that point are slim, and they'd be leaving a nearly free kill on the table. If I were in their shoes I can't imagine not taking the chance of gaining a significant early advantage, especially since they knew the person being lynched wasn't Strega.

[[M] Apollo]

I love the notion of "you haven't explained yourself" when I've gone through my thought process and reasoning in full. Both you and Aigis have tried this tactic; attempting to create doubt on the theory without actually challenging it in any substantial way.

I agree with most of Akihiko and Junpei's teaming: Mafia A Team (most likely): Theodore, Aigis, Koromaru. Mafia B Team (least likely): Minato, Akihiko, Elizabeth/Mitsuru. I don't think any other member has sufficient reason to be suspected.

I think Mitsuru trusts Junpei because she checked him out in the night and found he was Vanilla. I couldn't say why she suspected him in the first place, most likely a hunch. I suspect Shinjiro, Junpei, Akihiko, myself, and - of course - Yakiru are Vanilla. One of those might be Tracker, but I don't know what a Tracker does, so...

Elizabeth is probably Doctor. Ken is an adorable child, possibly Tracker, which would be hilarious.

Either Akihiko or Theodore will most likely be lynched today. If Aki turns Mafia, the B Team must become the primary suspects. If Theodore turns Town, the B Team must become the primary suspects.

One of 3 things will happen tonight:

A) Akihiko or Minato are murdered. This would have been the most likely, but now that I have drawn attention to the fact that the Mafia are playing a fairly typical game, they are less likely to do this.
B) Kill someone else - I believe the most likely target would be Ken. Murdering Ken puts more suspicion on Akihiko, and sets up an easy lynch. Could be anyone, though, but Ken gives them a greater advantage.
C) Kill no-one. Genuinely might happen. I doubt it, though, as this only stacks the odds further against them tomorrow.

Your declaration on "Kill me! I don't mind!" comes at a typical time, also. This further reinforces my suspicions that the Mafia are playing a standard game, and aren't much in the way of web-spinners. In turn, this reinforces my presumptions about Night 1.

If Theo turns Mafia, and Akihiko survives the night, Day 3 will consist of the remaining Mafia trying to induce a lynch on him. There are no other clear targets for them to turn on, which puts them in quite a poor position. I'm not sure what would happen if both myself and Akihiko survived the night, however. I suspect the same, but am less sure of it.

I apologize if my analysis puts any of you in jeopardy; I wanted to get all my cards out now, so that you can use it as a reference of sorts moving forward, should anything happen to me.

[[M] Mom – Host]

One of those might be Tracker, but I don't know what a Tracker does, so...

Each night, a Tracker can Mognet me one player they wish to track. They will recieve a result later telling them who that person visited during the night, if at all. Basically: the Tracker learns who a player targeted, but not what action that player performed.

Also, a vote and time check was requested in the Discussion Thread, so here it is.

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| Day Two |
Four hours and ten minutes remain

Theodore - 4 / 6 (Shinjiro, Mitsuru, Akihiko, Minato)
Akihiko - 3 / 6 (Theodore, Elizabeth, Koromaru)
Elizabeth - 1 / 6 (Junpei)

Shinjiro- 0 / 6 (Akihiko)
Ken - 0 / 6 (Akihiko)
Akihiko - 0 / 6 (Ken)
Minato - 0 / 6 (Aigis)
Aigis - 0 / 6 (Minato)

(Aigis and Ken are yet to vote)

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[[M] Trevor - Gay Dad]

Thanks for the update Igor.