EoFF XXVII Game Thread - Day Five - Showdown in the Velvet Room

[[M] Mom – Host]

Before I go to bed for the night, I'll leave you guys with a current time check and current vote tally:

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| Day One |

Fifteen hours and nine minutes remain

Aigis - 1 / 6 (Shinjiro)
Akihiko - 1 / 6 (Theodore, Aigis)
No Lynch - 1 / 6 (Yukari)

(Aigis, Akihiko, Elizabeth, Junpei, Ken, Koromaru, Minato, and Mitsuru are yet to vote)

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As it stands, we are going to a three-way sudden death. In the event of sudden death, any majority will close the day immediately and that person is lynched.

[[M] Jeff - Single Dad]

A no lynch is giving the mafia a free kill with no threat. Really only mafia love a no lynch scenario.

While that's not precisely true as the cop could get a lucky scum inspection or the doc a lucky victim protection which arguably puts the advantage back in the town's hands, statistically speaking it's generally still pretty much preferable for the mafia to go lynchless.

Meanwhile. I've gotten a little more suspicious of a certain other person.

##Vote: Yukari

I probably don't need to explain myself to Akibro, but since exchange of information is everything I see no reason to stay on the down low. Why are you concerned with what "seems suspicious"? Is it perhaps because dodging suspicion is exactly what you're trying to do? Also, anything that limits discourse is a no-no for me.

[[M] D'Anna]

Why would you not want to give your reasoning in a game where your only advantage is talking?

Nothing strange about it. I gave reasoning afterwards (which you either didn't read or ignored), and responded because Theodore's post seemed like an unprovoked reaction to a blanket and non-specific suspicion I had.

Honestly, there's little data to suggest anything right now. We need more information to contextualize!

##vote: no lynch

What an unproductive post.

This might as well read "I don't want to talk and I don't want to vote anyone."

Fair enough Akihiko. Still think it's a bit ridic, but you do you, man. I do wonder what you have to say in regards to Elizabeth's comments.

Using intuition and instinct is really all you have when you first start a game of mafia. Couldn't be farther from "ridiculous."

A no lynch is giving the mafia a free kill with no threat. Really only mafia love a no lynch scenario.

Agreed. Who do you think is most suspicious right now?

[[M] D'Anna]

Statistically we are far more likely to vote for a Townie than a Mafia given the little evidence or information we have. It is the first day and we have a few posts that may or may not be suspicious but don't have sufficient data to contextualize. There are 3 Mafia and 8 Townies. Meaning we have slightly less than 30% chance to randomly vote for Mafia. So I would rather not take a shot in the dark and hinder our cause.

Statistically, with each townie that dies the closer town gets towards narrowing down who the real mafia are.

Instead of worrying about "taking a shot in the dark" how about generating conversation, contributing discussion and investigating? You do that, and I guarantee your shot in the dark will have much better aim.

If anything, anyone aggressively calling for lynching particular person on the first day would seem suspicious. There's just insufficient data.

I would also argue that anyone aggressively calling for a no-lynch vote only serves to benefit the mafia.

[[M] Trevor - Gay Dad]

I'm suspicious of Yukari, and Shinjaro the most. They are both for a No Lynch, and in all the past games I've played Mafia loves either a band wagon jump on for a easy kill, or a No Lynch situation. The No Lynch to me screams Mafia as it puts the townies in a feeling of safety yet puts them in the most danger as mafia gets a free shot on them with 0 threat on them. I don't know if it is a rookie mistake, or a vet move yet, but at the moment my vote is leaning towards Yukari at the moment. Just waiting to see more evidence on my thoughts though.

[[M] Jeff - Single Dad]

I'm suspicious of Yukari, and Shinjaro the most. They are both for a No Lynch

The hell you talking about? I'm not advocating No Lynch at all.

[[M] Trevor - Gay Dad]

I misread a post sorry Shinjiro. My mistake there.

[[M] Jeff - Single Dad]

*grumble* well I guess it's fine.

[[M] Colette]

Usually I keep my responses brief because mobile devices and long posting doesn't seem to agree with me. Also, I honestly feel like there isn't enough data to compile on blind voting the first day.

So here's scenarios regarding how Day 2 starts depending if we lynch someone at random:

Day 1 Control %: Townies 72.7%, Mafia 27.3%

1) No Lynch:

Day 2 Results: 10 players remaining, 3 Mafia, 7 Townies.*

*The chances of Doctor saving a Townie from murder is about 1.1% (Mafia will choose 1/8 to kill; Doctor will choose 1/11)

Control %: Townies 70%, Mafia 30%

2) Lynching:

Chances lynching a Mafia on Day 1: 3/11

This leads to two possible results:

a) Lynch Townie: 9 players remain, 3 Mafia, 6 Townies -> Possibility: 72.7%
Control %: Townies 66.7%, Mafia 33.3%

b) Lynch Mafia: 9 players remain, 2 Mafia, 7 Townies -> Possibility: 27.3%
Control %: Townies 77.8%, Mafia 22.2%


Note: In a) Doctor has 1.4% chance of saving a Townie and in b) 1.2% chance of saving a Townie.

Note 2: This ignores the fact that the Role Blocker has about 14.3% chance of blocking the Doctor.


The math speaks for itself, by not lynching we do lose a bit of our power base but by lynching the Mafia has a higher chance of increasing theirs. Not lynching is cautionary and guarantees little deviance from the status quo. Lynching most likely results in the Mafia gaining more power. To lynch is high risk-high reward scenario for Townies. Regardless of what happens, lynching or not, the odds are in the Mafia's favour.

I prefer to be cautionary.

[[M] Kurt - Cool Dad]

Arf!

[I agree with Yukari that choosing the no lynch carries its own benefits for town, with lynch being high-risk, high-reward for them. So I wouldn't so easily jump at someone who proposes no lynch on the first day since it can make our situation on day 2 a little better.]

Woof!

[However, I also agree with the notion that lynching is our only real weapon in this case. We may have little to go on, but if we don't even attempt to get rid of the mafia, we can easily give the mafia a huge advantage.]

Bork bork!

[##vote: Yukari]

Awoo!

[Nothing personal, Yukari, but balancing out all the potentially incriminating evidence people have pointed to (like Sanada-san's finger-pointing), I think there might be a slightly greater chance that it's someone voting for no lynch that is mafia, especially since you're explicitly pointing us to the benefits of that option. You may, of course, be doing this with town's best interest in mind, but quite frankly, there really is nothing better to tip us off on day one, and we stand to gain so much more by taking the risk.]

[[M] Adama]

I'll keep my vote on Mr Sanada right now. Just to keep the discussion from losing focus.

As for a No Lynch, I initially was totally hostile to the idea and still prefer not to do that because it's a risk I feel is undesirable right now. It essentially all but guarantees the Mafia a Day 2 advantage and can potentially leave us with little information to go on. That being said, it's not necessarily indicative of Mafia.

[[M] Trevor - Gay Dad]

##Vote: Yukari I am suspicious of a no lynch. Also you are right, numbers don't lie. The odds of hitting a mafia are 27% on day one, but 0% on a No Lynch. Not sure if it is a rookie mistake but my gut tells me no to fall for it. Sorry Yukari.

[[M] Adama]

That's a pretty good point. Even if we do lose a townie. Unless it's a power role, we at least have data to go on rather than essentially forfeiting an opportunity to eliminate a Mafia.

[[M] D'Anna]

So that puts three votes on Yukari: Shinjiro, Koromaru and Junpei.

Are all three of you prepared to face the consequences should she turn out to be town?

[[M] Kurt - Cool Dad]

Woof!

[Well now, somebody's quick to throw around casually aggressive suggestions. You seem to be pretty confident that in the event she flips town, you'll be off the hook.]