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Thread: EoFF XXVII Game Thread - Day Five - Showdown in the Velvet Room

  1. #76

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    Akihito I don't see how me waiting to vote until someone has said their peace, and me explaining it is overly deadly. I voted for someone who played a move a mafia would play in my opinion. I have explained why I voted that way, and now you are trying to demonize our vote to put heat on us for day 2. Your statement is very suspicious indeed.

  2. #77
    Mafia Townsperson [M] Adama's Avatar
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    Everyone is bad at Mafia except Akihiko, it seems.

  3. #78
    By Your Command [M] Mom  Host's Avatar
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    The moon is growing full.



    | Day One |
    Six Hours Remain


    Yukari- 3 / 6 (Shinjiro, Koromaru, Junpei)
    Akihiko - 1 / 6 (Theodore, Aigis)
    No Lynch - 1 / 6 (Yukari)

    (Aigis, Akihiko, Elizabeth, Ken, Minato, and Mitsuru are yet to vote)



    At current state of play, Yukari will be lynched in just under six hours. This will be the final voluntary time-check from myself today: I'm sure you handle yourselves from here.

  4. #79

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    It seems I must cast my vote now as I will be required to perform my regular maintenance until after the six hours are up.

    ##Vote: Yukari

    While, as a machine, I must agree with the math, a 3.3% difference in control should we lynch a town member is simply not that functionally different whether we lynch or not given the relatively low number of people involved. Therefore, I find it strange that Yukari-chan would argue so strongly against the chance of taking out a member of Strega when the potential gain is significant and the risk, ultimately, all but irrelevant.

  5. #80
    Mafia Townsperson [M] Adama's Avatar
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    I shall hope I won't contribute to a majority lynch, but Miss Takeba does seem rather adamant about such a risky strategy.

    ##Unvote: [M] Akihiko

    ##Vote: [M] Yukari


    If this were Day 3 or so this sort of criteria would likely prove minimally incriminating, but there's relatively little to go on. Mayhaps you can give me "fashion" advice should you survive. I've been told that is an important aspect of human society, despite Mr Iori's demonstrable lack of interest in it.

  6. #81
    Mafia Townsperson [M] Adama's Avatar
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    Also since we know the roles, perhaps upon our first two deaths we can rationalize whom possesses which roles based on their claims in the pending days. That strategy could prove quite fruitful as per a purely utilitarian perspective, more deaths could prove especially helpful in determining otherwise.

  7. #82

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    Aigis, It is a ~6% control difference if you lynch a Townie, which you are.

    Since it looks like I will be Lynched, I would look at those who voted for me for your next Mafia. Especially since people are ignoring data. Day 1 Lynching is high risk move for Townies because of the general lack of data. It is a shot in the dark with a pretty decent fail rate and involves a 6% power lost vs a 3% on a no lynch.

    Numbers don't lie. I was merely advocating caution the first round.

  8. #83

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    Also, a Mafia player probably wouldn't actually show you the math they did to get to their conclusion. Moreover, the math points to the fact that in lynching, during Day 1 only, Mafia has the most to gain.

    So really, y'all need to check your logic processors.

  9. #84

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    Notice, still voting no lynch and not retaliating either despite no matter how I vote, it would be a moot point. #principles

  10. #85
    Mafia Townsperson [M] Kurt - Cool Dad's Avatar
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    Bark!

    [The reason people are so edgy when someone votes not to lynch anyone is because it seems like the most obvious tactic mafia could take in order to avoid being lynched. And while your reasoning that we are safer when there's more of us is sound, in this particular format of the game there is really no other way we can narrow down who mafia is than by lynching someone. That way, on the next day, even if we do end up lynching a town - which is likely, as you mentioned - we're still one step closer to figuring out who the actual mafia is.]

  11. #86

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    Oh, btw the math just represents one person choosing at random. If 6 people choose at random, they have a 0.04% of all voting for a Mafia, but not the same one. And about 0.02% chance of voting for the same one. This all assumes random voting though.

    Math isn't in anyone's favour when randomness is at play.

  12. #87

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    We are only one step closer because we are one day closer and more data has accumulated so we can make better decisions however by lynching we are likely to lose significant power. By Day 2 if 9 players remain, then it takes 5 for majority and it has a high chance of 3 of the active players being Mafia. Meaning, they could account for 60% of a lynch vote. So yeah, still doesn't make sense to lunch on Day 1. Still risky. If you no lynch then it would still take 6 as a majority (10 players remaining) and they could only control half the vote.

    Plus with more players remaining, it gives us more time to process information. 10 players means a round more than 9.

  13. #88

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    Btw, let's make it clear that I am only talking about no lynch being a sound thing in Day 1 because we are essentially voting at random.

  14. #89

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    Quote Originally Posted by [M] Akihiko View Post
    So that puts three votes on Yukari: Shinjiro, Koromaru and Junpei.

    Are all three of you prepared to face the consequences should she turn out to be town?
    *If* she does, absolutely. I'm a human, and I'll be damned if I just let you decide I'm scum from that.

    That being said.

    ##Unvote: Yukari

    Getting a majority lockdown now is not in our best interest (even if there are only 4 hours remaining on the clock). I go to sleep and then when I get back up we have 5 votes on Yukari? This turn of events needs to be further examined.

  15. #90

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    So last piece of advice before I'm lynched. So here's the down low. Mafia have much more to gain from a Day 1 lynch of a Townie than a no lynch. Much more profitable and low risk to have an innocent lynch than to draw suspect by asking for a no lynch since that is apparently a "Mafia move". Logic then dictates that chances are whoever pushed hard to lynch me is a Mafia. There is the chance that only Townies voted for me (7 Townies not including myself) though that means you have done the work for the Mafia, so if that's the case congrats on that.

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