Quote Originally Posted by [M] Yukari View Post
Aigis, It is a ~6% control difference if you lynch a Townie, which you are.

Since it looks like I will be Lynched, I would look at those who voted for me for your next Mafia. Especially since people are ignoring data. Day 1 Lynching is high risk move for Townies because of the general lack of data. It is a shot in the dark with a pretty decent fail rate and involves a 6% power lost vs a 3% on a no lynch.

Numbers don't lie. I was merely advocating caution the first round.
The difference in control should we lynch wrong person as compared to not lynching is 3.3%. This is per your own calculations.

The risk involved in us choosing incorrectly is minimal. And, frankly, there are few future situations that could occur later on in which it would be as safe to choose incorrectly as it is right now.