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Thread: EoFF XXVII Game Thread - Day Five - Showdown in the Velvet Room

  1. #91

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    In other words, a good Mafia player wouldn't go for a No Lynch on Day 1. They'd want a Townie lynched. If we were further along in the game then a No Lynch would be good for them. As a Day 1 strategy? Nope. They're better off having a Townie lynched.

  2. #92

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    Quote Originally Posted by [M] Yukari View Post
    Aigis, It is a ~6% control difference if you lynch a Townie, which you are.

    Since it looks like I will be Lynched, I would look at those who voted for me for your next Mafia. Especially since people are ignoring data. Day 1 Lynching is high risk move for Townies because of the general lack of data. It is a shot in the dark with a pretty decent fail rate and involves a 6% power lost vs a 3% on a no lynch.

    Numbers don't lie. I was merely advocating caution the first round.
    The difference in control should we lynch wrong person as compared to not lynching is 3.3%. This is per your own calculations.

    The risk involved in us choosing incorrectly is minimal. And, frankly, there are few future situations that could occur later on in which it would be as safe to choose incorrectly as it is right now.

  3. #93

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    Aigis, you clearly ignore the fact that by lynching a Townie will result in Day 2, 9 players remain which means 5 votes is majority. In this case Mafia will have 3 of those 5 votes effectively controlling lynching. You have less than 30% chance of lynching Mafia on Day 1.

  4. #94

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    Funny how math works, no?

  5. #95

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    As it stands now the Mafia has the ability to pile on forcing a sudden death scenario that will have the same effect.

  6. #96

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    Quote Originally Posted by [M] Yukari View Post
    Aigis, you clearly ignore the fact that by lynching a Townie will result in Day 2, 9 players remain which means 5 votes is majority. In this case Mafia will have 3 of those 5 votes effectively controlling lynching. You have less than 30% chance of lynching Mafia on Day 1.
    The Mafia won't be controlling lynching so long as the town realizes this and doesn't pile more votes on any single player than necessary, preventing a lockdown from happening. And hell, even if the Mafia push for a lockdown it reveals their identities on the spot, which would not guarantee them a win if they do it on the second day just yet, as there are still 3 Mafia vs 4 Townies on day 3 in the worst case scenario, which the town can absolutely still win if they know the Mafias' identities.

    Though I certainly am not voting with the express intent of killing a Townie. And hey, look, the more you're talking and explaining your stance, the more I'm thinking of voting for someone else instead.

  7. #97

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    Btw, calling out Mitsuru, Ken, Minato and Elizabeth. You guys have been way too quiet. Involve yourselves more! We don't even really know your stance on this matter yet.

  8. #98
    Mafia Townsperson [M] Adama's Avatar
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    Whilst your math is indeed seemingly accurate Miss Takeba, "the game is played on the field" or some similar expression is often used in such a scenario. The humanoids in play should not be so easily minimized as numbers when instinct and emotion are at play.

    Your confident insistence that those whom campaign against you are likely mafia is also a rather bold statement, and can be used as a deterrent to prevent people from voting a certain way to avoid the expressed outcome. For someone who is so detailed in their logical analyses and use of mathematics, it seems rather novice and gut-driven to use the "well if you voted for me you're mafia" rhetoric when it feels very inconsistent with the rhetoric you used earlier. Desperation, perhaps?

  9. #99
    Mafia Townsperson [M] Adama's Avatar
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    Also we have but a few hours left, no? If you have a convincing explanation I'd be delighted to send my vote elsewhere if you manage to persuade me.

  10. #100

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    I myself would be willing to change my vote if you can convince me you are not Mafia. No Lynch is suspicious to me as well as people who don't contribute to the conversation but stay hidden as in not to give information out.

  11. #101

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    Quote Originally Posted by [M] Yukari View Post
    Aigis, you clearly ignore the fact that by lynching a Townie will result in Day 2, 9 players remain which means 5 votes is majority. In this case Mafia will have 3 of those 5 votes effectively controlling lynching. You have less than 30% chance of lynching Mafia on Day 1.
    I agree with Shinjiro on this. Ultimately, this is not a game of random chance. To view it solely from the perspective of probabilities is folly as it's only a game of probabilities of we all select our votes at random. Being aware of the math is important, but to rely solely on it is not a logical decision.

  12. #102

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    I see Day 1 as more chance than any other day because lack of data and participation.

    I also never said that anyone who voted for me is Mafia.i said there is a good chance at least one person is but also said none of them might be. It really depends on their behaviour afterwards.

  13. #103
    Mafia Townsperson [M] Adama's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by [M
    Yukari] Since it looks like I will be Lynched, I would look at those who voted for me for your next Mafia.
    I think the implication you meant is rather clear.


  14. #104

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    Day 1 is almost certainly more chance than other days. But taking no action does not provide nearly the potential for useful information being discovered. And day 1 is mathematically a fairly safe time to risk voting incorrectly. The math says innocent people are likely to be lynched. Accepting that fact and using it to gain information from peoples reactions is only logical.

  15. #105

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    Quote Originally Posted by [M] Theodore View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by [M
    Yukari] Since it looks like I will be Lynched, I would look at those who voted for me for your next Mafia.
    I think the implication you meant is rather clear.

    I meant no implication merely stating logical possibilities. It isn't unreasonable to say at least one person who voted for me is Mafia. I'm also working under the assumption I'm getting lynched.
    Quote Originally Posted by [M] Aigis View Post
    Day 1 is almost certainly more chance than other days. But taking no action does not provide nearly the potential for useful information being discovered. And day 1 is mathematically a fairly safe time to risk voting incorrectly. The math says innocent people are likely to be lynched. Accepting that fact and using it to gain information from peoples reactions is only logical.
    Depends on what you value. The data is merely that and what framework of value you put it into is something non-mathematical. I prefer caution over risk in a situation that I deemed high risk. From what I can see we lose either way but less with a no lynch. Possible data from behaviour is a bonus but only one no lynch vote won't end the day. So hardly a threat to end the day my little vote is. Especially given how vehemently everyone reacted.

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