Will Microsoft and Sony Copy the Switch?

[Skyblade]

I stumbled onto an article on Metro.uk asking if Microsoft and Sony will copy the Switch, or if fans would want them to.

I wrote up a large response, then declined to send it in as I felt it was a waste of a speaking point. So I'm posting it here, and I'm going to try to splice together a halfway decent video on the subject to throw out into YouTube. In both cases hoping to generate some discussion that I can engage with, rather than just have everything directed at a news site.

Absolutely. It won’t even be as hard of a decision as copying the Wii’s motion control was, and they both jumped on that train.

If you look back into gaming’s history, the Switch is NOT a new concept. Back in 1995, SEGA released the Nomad. A portable system that played Genesis games. It only released in the US, and I never owned one, but I did know someone who did. It played games beautifully, worked exactly like the console, and was overall a blast. The problem with the system was, it was sitting at a $180 price tag, which was an additional cost over the $189 Genesis, and it ate batteries even faster than the infamous Game Gear.

And, of course, there was the original PlayStation Portable that released in 2004. Not only was it named "PlayStation Portable" (again, notice the marketing of a portable version of a console), but it's biggest success was in the fairly extensive library of games that originally released on the PlayStation that you could now play on the go. Though, with the PlayStation 2 available four years before it's release, it was still trending well behind the times, and PS2 games that were ported had to be substantially reimagined. Nonetheless, the PSP was well received, and was the closest that Sony ever got to breaking Nintendo's stranglehold on the portable market.

In between these two periods, we hit a time where such a concept was not feasible. Handheld hardware could not keep up with the switch from 2D sprites to 3D polygons, and the idea was shelved. Handhelds very heavily relied on the simpler traditional style due to hardware constraints (giving us the masterful GameBoy Advance), while console games spun further and further into higher polygon counts and more complex physics rendering.

Fast forward to 2013, and the release of the PlayStation Vita. Again, a system advertised as being able to play console-quality games in a portable setting, and featuring Cross Play and Cross Buy. Of course, it was $249 for the base unit (again, in addition to the $499 PS3). And, while Cross Play was nice, it wasn’t available for every title. What’s more, the hardware architecture made the system notoriously difficult to develop games for (the indie title Axiom Verge, developed with direct help from Sony in making it work on the Vita from the beginning, still took a year longer to release on that system than any other). So, the system collapsed and was ignored and abandoned by Sony.

Now look at the Switch. By consolidating the “console as handheld” hardware concept with the ability to play in a dedicated living room setup as you could any traditional console, Nintendo has removed the cost barrier of the concept to consumers. What’s more, they’ve removed the development issues that plagued the Vita, as there is only one system to develop for. Battery life has improved substantially since the day of AA batteries powering everything. And, finally, we’re reaching the point where handheld hardware CAN emulate the performance of a dedicated console once again.

Now look at the future. If Scorpio can deliver on 4K, 60 FPS gaming, what will the next console be? 8K resolution? It might interest you to know that experts say that someone with 20/20 vision is physically incapable of seeing even the difference between 1080p and 4K unless they’re on a 55” or larger screen, and sitting six feet or closer to the TV (my 50”, 1080p TV is situated 7 feet from my couch, and my vision is worse than 20/20, so there is literally no point to my even upgrading). 8K gets even worse, requiring a larger screen and/or closer viewing distances to see the difference. Which is itself inherently contradictory, because the closer you sit, the more of your vision the TV takes up, and therefore the smaller a TV that you need. Eyes do not have infinite resolution. If they did, we could see atoms.

So, what’s next, once they can’t push the prettiest graphics any more? The answer: Portability. And, given how successful the Switch has been, I do not expect it will take long at all to push this concept. This is a move the industry has known is coming. It’s one they’ve been looking for, and trying out since the “Great Console Wars” of Nintendo versus SEGA. The industry will not be slow to adapt to it now that it’s here. I’m guessing that the very next console iteration will feature a portable version. But, if not, the one after that absolutely will. The PS5 may not be portable, but the PS5 Pro equivalent will actually be the PS5 Portable.

Bank on it.

Those are my thoughts on the subject, and I thought I'd share them with you guys, see if you agree or disagree, and what other expectations you might have of the hybrid market going forward.