Tales of Mafia XXXI - Super Fun Game Thread

[[M] Aaron]

So far all I see from Colette is a point of the finger with no real work.

Strange that the two people I suspect most completely ignore the explanations for my finger pointing. Explanations which were more detailed than anything they've provided.

So when Elize shared what roles may be action and which may be passive was that a scum move? Or how about when Anize guessed which role was mafia, which could be both, and which may be Town? If you wish to point a finger at lists, you can't omit half of the lists made.

I didn't omit half the lists made, I omitted the ones that actually provided insight into the game because those ones were actually generating new info and discussion. They may still be scum but their analyses provided new information and new views on old information. Velvet's list provided nothing that everyone who read and re-read the thread (as we should all be doing) didn't already know and she provided zero analysis on any of the information in it. Her list makes her look like she's contributing when it really offered no new information or interpretation at all. It's a great way to look busy and look like she's participating without actually doing anything.

The argument that people who make a list are scum, is kinda of a weak argument and a ploy I have seen mafia use.

Good thing that's never been my argument. My argument is that people who make a list that doesn't actually contribute anything new and who never use it to provide new perspective or analyses are suspicious as hell. I was even quite clear that it wasn't enough to get me to condemn her as being scum, only that it makes me suspicious. But her posts since then are certainly pushing her more firmly into scum territory for me. I might even be more concerned about her than you at this point.

Why would it be the roleblocker? Wouldn't the jail keeper have targeted the goon if it prevented the kill?
I would think the jail keeper would have been blocked if he had had the roleblocker target him.

[[M] Colette]

What? Two roles cancelled each other out last night. Which to me means that two roles that could block abilities cancelled each other out. As in jail keeper targets role blocker, and their abilities to block roles cancel out and nothing happens.

[[M] Colette]

After giving it some thought, I think there's a good chance that even if it wasn't the role blocker that I targeted that I've still said enough to out myself to mafia and I don't see me surviving the night if I don't say something and get it all out there.

I'm the jailkeeper and night one I targeted lloyd with my ability. I was told my action could not be completed.

Now given the knowledge two roles cancelled each other out I'm thinking lloyd is role blocker. Unless there's two of them I think he's mafia. If there are two role blockers then flip a coin. I know I was blocked so there's at least one in the game.

Assuming my suspicions bear out I'd say velvet is mafia as well and going to lynch me suspecting I'm the jail keeper before now. Raven may also be mafia working with her, or maybe he just naturally ignores that skit and draws wring conclusions and it's coincidence they agree.

So to recap: I'm the jail keeper, I blocked lloyd and we know I couldn't complete my action and two roles cancelled each other out so lloyd is likely mafia.

If anyone is curious why I didn't go after him today, it wasn't clear to me he was role blocker until after the skits and I didn't see a believable way to pivot to go for him instead. I'm also fairly convinced either raven or velvet are scummy so I stuck to hunting.

[##unvote]
[##vote: velvet]

I suppose I may survive the night now if mafia want to try and discredit me but they may still kill me tonight.

Also, since I may not get to use it later: ##activate skit.

[[M] Elize]

Hmm... it depends on which priority the role have taken.

I don't mean to get into heavy theory or anything - I'd leave that to Jude or Rowen - but there's a thing called Natural Action Resolution that clarifies in what order power role actions are executed. The order becomes important when there's many night actions all activating at once!

When I was looking up grinding, I also decided to do a spot of reading to help us defeat the traitors, and came across the Natural Action Resolution. Basically, roles that have higher priority would override ones below in cases of conflict. Here's the list, and I've also provided a link here:

Commute - Commuter
Blocking - Roleblocker, Rolestopper
Jailkeep - Jailkeeper
Protection - Doctor, Bodyguard
Miscellaneous - Neighborizer, Friendly Neighbor
Kill - Mafia factional kill, SK factional kill, Strongman, Vigilante
Role Investigation - Cop, Gunsmith, Role Cop, Vanilla Cop, Neapolitan
Action Investigation - Tracker, Watcher, Voyeur, Follower, Motion Detector

So in the event that a Roleblocker and a Jailkeeper targeted each other, the Roleblocker would prevent the Jailkeeper from keeping. At least, that's if you were following the list laid out in this book I was reading. Supreme Overlord Kohaku might've followed another procedure.

It does get so confusing though. Here's an example found on the Roleblocker that makes my head hurt:

Suppose Roleblocker A blocks Roleblocker B, who blocks Roleblocker C, who blocks Roleblocker D, who blocks Doctor E. If Roleblocks are resolved in such a way that conflicts are minimized, A blocks B, preventing B from blocking C, thus C blocks D, preventing D from blocking the Doctor - in short, the Doctor's protection would have an effect. If all Roleblocks are simultaneous, the only player who is NOT technically Roleblocked is A; the Doctor would be blocked.

I guess ultimately it is up to Kohaku how she would resolve such confusing instances! I will say though that 'cancelling each out out' implies both abilities were allowed to fire - as in, both the Roleblocker and the Jailkeeper were allowed to activate their ability. If the Roleblocker is above the Jailkeeper in priority, then the Jailkeeper would never be allowed to activate their ability, and so I would question the use of the term 'cancellation'.

This is all assuming the Jailkeeper and Roleblocker are the two roles in question here. It's hard to speculate at this moment because we don't know if they're in the game, or if they targeted each other.

But hopefully I've put forward a possible suggestion as to how night actions might be resolved? What Raven says can't be proven, but it can't be denied also.

[[M] Anise]

Well there's your role claim! I'm sure you didn't see that post as you were typing that up Elize.

This also confirms we don't have a doctor! So our night immune abilities are more passive ones, right? Plus we're waiting for another skit! Wow this got heated really quickly.

[[M] Elize]

After giving it some thought, I think there's a good chance that even if it wasn't the role blocker that I targeted that I've still said enough to out myself to mafia and I don't see me surviving the night if I don't say something and get it all out there.

Huh? Coulda fooled me. I didn't know you were the Jailkeeper right now until you said so! Nothing you said to me sounded 'Jailkeepery'.

So Colette, why did you target Lloyd? Random pick, or did you think he wasn't a Traitor? Obviously if you're telling the truth then you wouldn't knowingly target a traitor.

[[M] Elize]

I'm a little suspicious, to be honest! We have either a Jailkeeper or a Doctor, and now Colette is claiming to be Jailkeeper, so assuming she is telling the truth we have effectively lost our only protective role.

I'm kinda confused why she decided to roleclaim when she did. I didn't see any obvious tells that she was a Jailkeeper, if I'm honest.

[[M] Mom – Host]

Here is your skit, Colette!

Well... this may be it for me guys. I only hope what I've shared can help you in some way.



Hey, cheer up, bud. It's not over yet!



So then... do you believe me?



I can't say for sure whether or not you're telling the truth about everything, but... I can confirm that there is only one roleblocker, so I know you're at least partially telling the truth.

And hey, if you are telling the truth...



At least your sacrifice won't have been in vain!



I only wanted... to protect Lloyd....



Either way, guys. We're going to want to break our voting tie before the day ends.



Or else we might lose both of them.

[[M] Anise]

As for role analysis, it seems pretty clear to me that if we have either a doctor or a jailkeeper but not both and two roles canceled each other out night one that we almost certainly have no doctor and the jailkeeper and roleblocker targeted each other. And this is assuming, of course, that there's only one roleblocker. If there are two then there may still be a doctor and no jailkeeper.

Now if I'm right and there's a jailkeeper but no doctor, and the jailkeeper and the roleblocker canceled each other out, then they most likely chose not to night kill hoping to convince the jailkeeper they chose correctly night one. But if there is just the one roleblocker, and assuming they're mafia as there tends to often be a mafia roleblocker, the jailkeeper might very well know the identity of the mafia roleblocker right now which is pretty important.

That is a good point Anise. And with skits especially things may get away from them if they don't act every night.

Also, if the roleblocker and jailer canceled each other, we also have to face the fact that they know who the jailer is and will be gunning for them. That would be a bad role to lose early on.

What? Two roles cancelled each other out last night. Which to me means that two roles that could block abilities cancelled each other out. As in jail keeper targets role blocker, and their abilities to block roles cancel out and nothing happens.

I'm a little suspicious, to be honest! We have either a Jailkeeper or a Doctor, and now Colette is claiming to be Jailkeeper, so assuming she is telling the truth we have effectively lost our only protective role.

I'm kinda confused why she decided to roleclaim when she did. I didn't see any obvious tells that she was a Jailkeeper, if I'm honest.

I dunno, I'm inclined to believe them they've been dropping the same line several times now, hinting toward there being a jailkeeper. I could be completely duped about this, though.

Only thing I can for see is that they were doing this to set up a roleclaim. If they were mafia and knew a jailkeeper blocked them, plus with the cancelling out info, they may have been trying to cement their role? Maybe? That's possibly what I could gather if they were lying.

[[M] Anise]

Whoa! New info!

One Roleblocker
And if we end with a tie we may lose them both?!

[[M] Elize]

All I've seen Colette do is speculate on the existence of a Jailkeeper, and saying that she believes in a theory involving a Jailkeeper. That doesn't seem different from everyone else talking about last night. Heck, Raven's been talking a lot about the possibility of a Jailkeeper or Doctor as well.

I get the dropping hints. I'm an expert at studying them, and how Milla's icy glare is actually hinting at her longing desire for me, but it strikes me as risky to out yourself as our protective role.

How I see it, if Colette continued dropping hints that she might know something about last night (because she is the Jailkeeper and is involved) and then died, then her words would take on a greater meaning. But by outing herself, there's a 100% chance that Colette might be killed tomorrow night. At least by not outing herself straight-away there was always a chance the traitors may not realise Colette was a Jailkeeper. But that chance is no more.

All I'm saying is it's a pretty risky play in my opinion.

[[M] Elize]

While Teepo's ranting about Colette, I just reviewed the skit and it does contain some interesting information. So there's one roleblocker. If Colette is telling the truth, that means they are traitor-aligned and stopped Colette. If she's not, then it is possible that Colette is a Roleblocker claiming to be a Jailkeeper. The two roles cancelling each other out is unrelated. If in fact there's a Doctor and not a Jailkeeper, then that's a safe claim because the Doctor couldn't possibly out themselves to say otherwise. Traitor Roleblockers claiming to be a Jailkeeper is actually a fairly clever move, thinking about it.

All in all, hard to say at this point. I'm initially slightly sceptical though that's more to do with the suddenness of the claim coupled with the fact that it seems largely unprovoked, but I'd like to see what others think also.

As for the voting - where are we exactly, is it two on Mikleo and two on Velvet? I'll do a vote count in a short while.

[[M] Elize]

Day Two

---

Majority Lynch Occurs at Seven Votes

Velvet: 3 (Eizen, Rowen, Colette)
Mikleo: 3 (Velvet, Elize, Jade)

Colette: 1 (Raven)
Lloyd: 1 (Pascal)

Raven: 0 (Velvet, Colette)

Anise, Lloyd, Mikleo and Rita are yet to vote

[[M] Elize]

Also please say if I've made a mistake!

So as it stands, according to the Skit, Velvet and Mikleo will both be eliminated.

[[M] Anise]

Okay we're getting close to the end here and haven't heard from Lloyd to counter Colette's claim. I'm inclined to believe colette but I'm still a bit apprehensive just cause we don't know what her accused has to say. I've been burnt by believing false claims before!

The situation currently though, thanks to the skit, is that if we don't come to a majority vote BOTH vote leaders could die. Now I'd rather be wrong on one than wrong on both and lose two Townies in one fell swoop. So for the current situation, because i'm not sure if i'll be bale to keep checking in before the end of the day, i'm going to push this majority toward

##Vote: Mikleo

As previously mentioned. They just popped in to declare a skit and then disappeared. In 48 hrs? That's a bit of a reach for inactivity. I believe it's a tactic.