Tales of Mafia XXXI - Super Fun Game Thread

[[M] Adama]

Of course two people cancelled each other. I never intended on claiming that was not the case. But, again, the ones that cancelled each other were not Colette and I. I don't know who it was. My best guess is that an Ascetic Mafia tried to kill the Bulletproof or Bodyguard who in turn tried to use some sort of ability on them and failed because, well, they're ascetic.

You know what, let's do this, maybe Kohaku will be nice enough to shed some more light on this matter. ##Skit: Activate

Now, maybe are you are telling the truth about being a watcher. Nothing said mafia couldn't have more than one role too!

Nah, the dual role part specified that people could have "both an active and a passive role". It said nothing about two active roles being a thing.

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

I'll hold off my vote for now until the two queued skits have played out. I must say though, for now I'm also tending toward suspecting Lloyd.

[[M] Mom – Host]

Here is your skit, Raven!

Well, we lost one of our most valuable townies last night, what even is going on? Who do we trust?



Hmm. I may be able to shed a bit of light on what happened last night.



The watcher was informed of two people targeting the one they chose to watch and two of the mafia targeted one player.



On top of that, it seems the survivor has a strong inkling about who one of the mafia is. Whether they're right or not has yet to be seen.



Wait, why would that matter?



Because it seems that the survivor... is also our bodyguard.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

sigh

You know, this all could've been avoided if Colette had just voted for the person she was sure about. The skits completely backed up her side of the story, but then she went and voted for Velvet.

Interesting, Rita, because right now this scientist is the only one who was suggesting Lloyd, and I was suggesting it even before Colette said what she said. Of course there's no way to know for certain that my suggested scenario was right, but I felt it was a pretty solid hypothesis.

Your hypothesis was flimsy, your evidence was non-existent at the time of your accusation and circumstantial at best after the skit. Your guess may have ended up being correct, but don't try to dress it up as good science.

Which is why I can't understand why even Colette didn't vote for him.

Now here's something we can agree on. What was up with that? I'd still be super suspicious of her right now if, you know, she wasn't dead and stuff.

I'm not going to vote yet, I want to see the skits that Raven and Lloyd have called for. But its pretty hard to look past Lloyd right now.

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

On top of that, it seems the survivor has a strong inkling about who one of the mafia is. Whether they're right or not has yet to be seen.



Wait, why would that matter?



Because it seems that the survivor... is also our bodyguard.

As far as I can remember the only votes that have been cast today have been for Lloyd. This would seem to suggest that Lloyd is, in fact, one of the mafia, as he is the only character which anyone has recently expressed an "inkling" for. If this is trye, it would also suggest that either Jade or Pascal is the survivor, and hence the bodyguard.

Please feel free to point any holes in my reasoning.

[[M] Mom – Host]

Here is your skit, Lloyd!

Man, no one trusts me right now. I don't even know what to do.



Well, I can corroborate at least some of your story. You are right that no one player has two active roles. Also, Eizen definitely targeted Rowen, as you said.



It seems that there are a few mysteries left, however.



On top of a survivor, we also have a lyncher in play. The surprising thing, though, is that they have yet to lynch vote their target. I wonder what their game is.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Are you going senile, old man? You said it yourself:

Whether they're right or not has yet to be seen.

The survivor thinks that Lloyd is Mafia, but that doesn't mean that he is. All it means is someone who has expressed a viewpoint is the survivor, which could be Jade, Pascal or Raven. Not me as I posted after the skit.

[[M] Trevor - Gay Dad]

The first skit confirms outright that Lloyd is lying. If the Watcher was informed of two Mafia visiting Colette that night, then he cannot have been prevented from carrying out his role, whether by being blocked or jailed. Lloyd, you naughty boy, your case isn't getting any less incriminating for you.

On the other hand, having the BG be a survivor is terrible news for us, because it means that they will be more focused on living to the end rather than sacrificing themselves to protect a valuable townsperson.

As for the second skit, Eizen targeting Rowen could mean anything, as neither man is dead, nor have they voiced suspicions of each other. My current thinking is that Eizen is in some manner of investigative role.

I'm obviously biased about the lyncher, but Raven has been tirelessly dogging at my heels since the first day on continuously flimsy reasoning (and him calling me out for not providing useful information in my posts is very much a pot calling a kettle black). Not making any direct accusations yet, but we'll see where the days take us.

[[M] Adama]

Oh well. Let's leave that unfortunate matter aside for now.

For the time being, since we know the lyncher hasn't voted for their target yet, the following Lyncher-Target combinations are impossible.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Raven has just kinda been watching quietly lately, even though the first day he was throwing out accusations in all directions. I could see that being lyncher behavior, but I don't think there's really enough to go on there. He did vote for Colette without what I would consider good cause on day 2, but she was killed in the night. If he is a lyncher and she his target, then he's already lost.

The first skit demonstrates Lloyd is lying unless there are two Watchers. I can't see anywhere confirming that each role is only used once, but it wouldn't be unreasonable to make that assumption. What makes me slightly wary to put the final nail in Lloyd's coffin is the Eizen did target Rowen as he claimed.

So the missing piece of information here is: Eizen - what were you doing with Rowen?

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

Are you going senile, old man? You said it yourself:

Whether they're right or not has yet to be seen.

The survivor thinks that Lloyd is Mafia, but that doesn't mean that he is. All it means is someone who has expressed a viewpoint is the survivor, which could be Jade, Pascal or Raven. Not me as I posted after the skit.

Indeed, you're quite right. Apologies for my lapse in concentration. As you say, the Bodyguard would appear to be either Jade, Pascal or possibly Raven (although I don't believe that they have yet indicated a "strong inkling" today. An inkling perhaps, but not a strong inkling).

The question is, how can we determine which of the three is the Bodyguard? Short of the Bodyguard voluntarily revealing themselves, I confess I'm at a loss.

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

Oh well. Let's leave that unfortunate matter aside for now.

For the time being, since we know the lyncher hasn't voted for their target yet, the following Lyncher-Target combinations are impossible.

May I ask how you were able to produce this so quickly? Perhaps I''m jumping to conclusions again, but it appears to me that you had this prepared in advance in case this very question should arise.

[[M] Adama]

Artes, old man.

[[M] Aaron]

I can say I am not the bodyguard.

[[M] Felix]

Your hypothesis was flimsy, your evidence was non-existent at the time of your accusation and circumstantial at best after the skit. Your guess may have ended up being correct, but don't try to dress it up as good science.

Yeah, you like to say that and talk a big scientist game, but let's look at your evidence compared to mine, eh?

Well, I think I'm gonna go with Mikleo as well. I don't really buy that inactivity == guilt (my research takes a lot​ of time during the day), but I do think just showing up to activate a skit and not really discussing the results is a little suspect.

I won't vote for her though, at least not tonight, as I don't think I could convince a majority to distrust sweet little Elize. And I don't have any compelling evidence either, just a gut feeling.

So instead I'll vote for Mikleo. I think the likelihood of his guilt is high enough to take the risk.

[##vote: Mikleo]

Meanwhile, I admit before the skit that I was mostly focused on him being a yes man doing an excellent job of avoiding attention.
However, I'd already discussed aallll of this before Colette's skit.

Skits have confirmed:
Two roles canceled each other out night one.
There's no night kill night one, but mafia did try to kill someone night one.
There's only one roleblocker.

Once Colette admitted her situation and no one counter-claimed her, Lloyd was the best idea we had. Even you admit that now after the skit.

The skits completely backed up her side of the story, but then she went and voted for Velvet.

So a good scientist would stop trying to shoot down her colleague's work and say it was nothing more than a lucky guess.

I even mentioned how after she made her admission about blocking Lloyd, that it REALLY lined up with my theory. Colette made an odd choice, that I think was sadly motivated by the fact that no one was looking at LLoyd but me. I think it's because she saw the same writing on the wall I did. Everyone was too busy arguing over lists or trying to lynch Mikleo for being extremely quiet. Not the most sound reasoning, but what can you do?

ALL the evidence was weak, but mine was the strongest reasoning. That is fact. The most flimsy hypothesis, with the most non-existent evidence was yours and everyone else's band wagon theory on Mikleo. I think the current situation of a dead jailer and a dead enabler should keep you from still trying to argue that point. I warned you ahead of time, and you can ignore that if you want, but it's dangerous. A good scientist can swallow their pride, look at the situation, and admit when they were out thought. So come on, buddy! Let's work together! Cheria tells me I'm wrong for not bathing and trying to touch Sophie almost everyday. It doesn't mean we can't get something wrong and bounce back.

Even now LLoyd's standing by his weak reasoning. So I'll summarize again and then I've done all I can

My reasoning:
Two role's blocked EACH OTHER.
One of those role's was Colette as a Jailer. She tried to jail LLoyd.
It was blocked. Since it was blocked by the OTHER person according to skit information, that person was Lloyd. Not some third party he's removed from.
There was a chance that he was a good aligned role blocker and it was friendly fire.
Except he didn't try to use that angle, because I suspect he didn't see it. He just went with classic mafia denial, and now the evidence has caught him out and he can't go back.

Lloyd's evidence.

Of course two people cancelled each other. I never intended on claiming that was not the case. But, again, the ones that cancelled each other were not Colette and I. I don't know who it was.