Tales of Mafia XXXI - Super Fun Game Thread

[[M] Aaron]

Raven has just kinda been watching quietly lately, even though the first day he was throwing out accusations in all directions. I could see that being lyncher behavior, but I don't think there's really enough to go on there. He did vote for Colette without what I would consider good cause on day 2, but she was killed in the night. If he is a lyncher and she his target, then he's already lost.

The first skit demonstrates Lloyd is lying unless there are two Watchers. I can't see anywhere confirming that each role is only used once, but it wouldn't be unreasonable to make that assumption. What makes me slightly wary to put the final nail in Lloyd's coffin is the Eizen did target Rowen as he claimed.

So the missing piece of information here is: Eizen - what were you doing with Rowen?

I have been IRL busy with work.

I can also confirm that I am not the Survivor, or the Lyncher.

In fact I am the Miller. No real special power to it. I have no night action, and am as vanilla as it gets in this game.

[[M] Felix]

I also think this might be important, guys.

On top of that, it seems the survivor has a strong inkling about who one of the mafia is. Whether they're right or not has yet to be seen.



Wait, why would that matter?



Because it seems that the survivor... is also our bodyguard.[/CENTER][/B]

I'm not sold on Lloyd being mafia. I am more thinking Jade. Jade has yet to add, try, or do anything of any substance that I can think of. I won't say Lloyd isn't, but I just don't see it.

Let's see what else we can find out.

##activate: skit

Maybe this might help us shed some onsite.

It says the survivor has a strong inkling about who mafia is, sure. So that quote from Raven with his thoughts could mean Raven is our survivor and would make Jade Mafia.

Obviously not confirmed, but if no one has seen it, it's an important possibility.

[[M] Adama]

Bodyguard Survivor is kinda hilarious, isn't it. They pretty much have to target whoever they think *won't* be nightkilled every night.

[[M] Aaron]

Pascal, I am not the Survivor.

[[M] Felix]

Time will tell.

[[M] Trevor - Gay Dad]

Miller is quite the convenient role claim, isn't it? If you get investigated and turn up Mafia, you have a built-in excuse. I don't buy it yet. However, I'm focused more on the Lloyd situation today than anything else.

[[M] Adama]

I'm focused more on the Lloyd situation today than anything else.

Oh come now, the situation with me has long since reached its conclusion. Feel free to focus on more important things.

[[M] Aaron]

I can back this up Jade with a day one statement from me. Also it is the safest claim, so feel everyone else feel free to claim it. Not one will, and if they do they are mafia straight out.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Your hypothesis was flimsy, your evidence was non-existent at the time of your accusation and circumstantial at best after the skit. Your guess may have ended up being correct, but don't try to dress it up as good science.

Yeah, you like to say that and talk a big scientist game, but let's look at your evidence compared to mine, eh?

Well, I think I'm gonna go with Mikleo as well. I don't really buy that inactivity == guilt (my research takes a lot​ of time during the day), but I do think just showing up to activate a skit and not really discussing the results is a little suspect.

I won't vote for her though, at least not tonight, as I don't think I could convince a majority to distrust sweet little Elize. And I don't have any compelling evidence either, just a gut feeling.

So instead I'll vote for Mikleo. I think the likelihood of his guilt is high enough to take the risk.

[##vote: Mikleo]

Meanwhile, I admit before the skit that I was mostly focused on him being a yes man doing an excellent job of avoiding attention.
However, I'd already discussed aallll of this before Colette's skit.

Skits have confirmed:
Two roles canceled each other out night one.
There's no night kill night one, but mafia did try to kill someone night one.
There's only one roleblocker.

Once Colette admitted her situation and no one counter-claimed her, Lloyd was the best idea we had. Even you admit that now after the skit.

The skits completely backed up her side of the story, but then she went and voted for Velvet.

So a good scientist would stop trying to shoot down her colleague's work and say it was nothing more than a lucky guess.

I even mentioned how after she made her admission about blocking Lloyd, that it REALLY lined up with my theory. Colette made an odd choice, that I think was sadly motivated by the fact that no one was looking at LLoyd but me. I think it's because she saw the same writing on the wall I did. Everyone was too busy arguing over lists or trying to lynch Mikleo for being extremely quiet. Not the most sound reasoning, but what can you do?

ALL the evidence was weak, but mine was the strongest reasoning. That is fact. The most flimsy hypothesis, with the most non-existent evidence was yours and everyone else's band wagon theory on Mikleo. I think the current situation of a dead jailer and a dead enabler should keep you from still trying to argue that point. I warned you ahead of time, and you can ignore that if you want, but it's dangerous. A good scientist can swallow their pride, look at the situation, and admit when they were out thought. So come on, buddy! Let's work together! Cheria tells me I'm wrong for not bathing and trying to touch Sophie almost everyday. It doesn't mean we can't get something wrong and bounce back.

Even now LLoyd's standing by his weak reasoning. So I'll summarize again and then I've done all I can

My reasoning:
Two role's blocked EACH OTHER.
One of those role's was Colette as a Jailer. She tried to jail LLoyd.
It was blocked. Since it was blocked by the OTHER person according to skit information, that person was Lloyd. Not some third party he's removed from.
There was a chance that he was a good aligned role blocker and it was friendly fire.
Except he didn't try to use that angle, because I suspect he didn't see it. He just went with classic mafia denial, and now the evidence has caught him out and he can't go back.

Lloyd's evidence.

Of course two people cancelled each other. I never intended on claiming that was not the case. But, again, the ones that cancelled each other were not Colette and I. I don't know who it was.

I think it's awesome how you're not getting hung up on what I said. That's really mature of you.

You know, we have enough information now that waiting one more night and hoping I stay alive is probably not going to effect the content of this all that much so...

##skit activate

[[M] Elize]

Huh, so Colette just... died.

I'm not used to such violence and sadness, Teepo! I'm not sure I can continue! Nothing this dark happened during our adventures with Jude! Colette was shot in the back of the head! I feel like I've crossed genres from cute anime to thriller!

Aww don't shut down on me now, Elize! We've got to keep working together with our frenemies.

What's a frenemy?

Kinda a friend, kinda an enemy. We won't know which way they swing until we do some investigating! Here, let me do some for now.

So I've looked at all the skits. I won't reiterate what has already been said but yeah Lloyd is looking pretty suspicious from where I'm standing. Pascal has laid the case out against Lloyd. Pretty much the only real mystery left for me is how Lloyd knew Eizen 'did something' to Rowen.

If Lloyd is a stinking dirty traitor, he wouldn't voluntarily throw his fellow Mafia ally under the bus like that by implicating him. Also, I'm getting a non-traitor vibe from Leather Coat Dude, and coupled with the very likely scenario of Lloyd being a traitor, it's more likely he wouldn't throw Leather Coat Dude under a bus, and so Leather Coat Dude is - for me - slanting towards Town.

Of course that begs the question how Lloyd knew about Eizen (and Velvet) visiting Rowen. I doubt it was a guess, that must've been some lucky guess to correctly state the visitor and visitee. If Lloyd is a traitor, then my money is on Lloyd being informed through a Traitor Messenger Pigeon, like the one Alvin used. If he could communicate with his traitor buddies, it is possible the traitors might a watcher, who told everyone what happened.

It wouldn't be too out of place. With many people having roles, it would certainly be of benefit to the traitors to figure out who visited who, because someone who can visit is basically a power role.

For now, I won't get Elize to vote Lloyd, because there's already enough votes on him and I am curious to say what Eizen and Velvet says about all this. I'm thinking Eizen has some sort of investigative role, maybe a tracker of some kind. Not sure about Velvet. I guess we'll see.

[[M] Mom – Host]

Here is your skit, Rita!

Ugh, this is so stupid.



Hey, maybe one of you losers could reveal something useful before we all die.



Umm, I think maybe we're making too many assumptions about the last skits.



We were assuming that the mafia the bodyguard suspects is Lloyd, but what if it wasn't? Not to mention, if they're a survivor, why would they be trying to lynch mafia anyway? It would be a safe person for them to guard. It just wouldn't make much sense unless they had other motives.



What's more, the skit never said that the bodyguard has tried to lynch the mafia they suspect, just that they have an inkling as to who it may be. In the end, this could mean nothing, but these are things we should keep in mind.



Excellent deduction skills, young miss. Indeed, I think that is valuable information to keep in mind. We mustn't jump to conclusions, after all.



On that note, I've managed to gain some more intel of my own. It seems the number of traitors we face... is three.

[[M] Aaron]

So there is three mafia. Got to read the skit more to try and see everything else.

[[M] Aaron]

So does it also say the bodyguard has not cast a vote for a mafia member, yet suspect one that is right? I may have misread that.

[[M] Felix]

So does it also say the bodyguard has not cast a vote for a mafia member, yet suspect one that is right? I may have misread that.

Well, it doesn't say that have tried to vote for mafia, but it also doesn't say they haven't. Just that they have an inkling of who it is based off of their behavior. So, possibly, what the skit might be saying is that another mafia player is someone the body guard/survivor is someone they specifically haven't mentioned because that's who they're using to avoid being night killed right now.

Summarizing again, as I see it.
Bodyguard is also survivor
Behavior indicates they may have figured out who one of the mafia.
They may or may not have voted for this person.
It wouldn't make sense for them to vote for mafia, since they can use that person to avoid being night killed.
But that still doesn't mean they aren't working against mafia. It could be another Colette situation, where they're making a strange choice.

I think it's awesome how you're not getting hung up on what I said. That's really mature of you.

And I think it's really mature how you ignore my reasoning simply to fuel your own stubborn pride and that you feel superior to everyone. You're a smart scientist, but your personality towards your colleague's reminds me of my friend Hubert. He's a really nice fella on the inside, but he's a little young and stubborn too. It keeps him from seeing others as intellectual equals or seeing his own faults. I call him Lil' bro sometimes.

I know! I'll call you Lil' sis!

Anyway, thanks for the skit Lil' Sis. I'm going to go get some sleep!

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

The creepy doll said something interesting - Lloyd wouldn't need to be the Watcher to know what happened, he'd just need one of his mafia buddies to tell him. So the likelihood that he is indeed the roleblocker seems quite high, and the likelihood that another Mafia is a Watcher also seems quite high.

We know that Eizen targeted Rowen night 1, as per Lloyd's claim. And I really want to hear Eizen explain what he was doing there. Lloyd also claimed Velvet targeted Rowen that night; any truth to that Velvet?

I know! I'll call you Lil' sis!

You do what you want, Pascal. I'm interested in your situational analysis, not your emotional over-reactions. By the way; I know you're super happy about your public deduction of Lloyd, but - assuming you're town for the moment - bear in mind everything you reveal here is being read by at least three enemies. The lyncher and survivor could also be playing against you. So don't be reckless about what you reveal.