Tales of Mafia XXXI - Super Fun Game Thread

[[M] Elize]

And Elize, I don't consider that evidence that Velvet is innocent. Throwing allies under the bus is a common enough mafia tactic, and Velvet was one of the earliest and strongest pushers of Mikleo being a traitor, an initially reasonable idea, but one that led to us lynching our Enabler and leaving our Cop vulnerable. I'm not sure whether he actually is or isn't on our side, but I cannot even slightly lower him on my suspects list.

Rowen, Elize, and Rita at least seem like safe townies. Not certain about Pascal or Anise, but I do not suspect them of illicit activities as much as I do Raven or Velvet.

Throwing Velvet under the bus makes no sense though. Velvet was in no danger of being lynched at that stage. You'd usually throw someone under a bus if they were going to be lynched anyway so you would look super helpful and nice by lynching a traitor.

But at that stage, it would be far more preferable for a traitor to throw Lloyd under the bus. His fate was effectively sealed with Colette's last damning verdict. Traitors only through other traitors under the bus when the writing is on the wall and they might as well salvage something from it by making themselves look non-traitor.

By my reasoning then, that would implicate Pascal as 'busser' in chief, but I find that unlikely, mainly because no traitor would actually put that much effort in bussing. It is enough to look agreeable and say "oh yeah, that person is super shady" and vote Lloyd. Why bother writing paragraphs of information? There's simply no need, and traitors tend to take the path of least resistance. Kinda like Occam's razor. Simplest solution is often the most likely. A very blunt tool, but I like to keep it in mind.

Which is why I think Velvet is leaning non-traitor in my view. To be sure, she could a traitor and Lloyd was including her in the visit list as part of some gambit whereby I think Velvet isn't a traitor because that's exactly what I would expect a traitor to not do and... see where I'm going with this? That's a lot of effort. If Lloyd left Velvet off the list, we wouldn't even be talking about Velvet's placement on the list and what it all means. At worst, the traitor team would be left with Velvet's actions up to that point, which were kinda nullish-town in my view. Why rock that boat?

I understand your point. I agree; Velvet is not confirmed innocent. Not by a long shot. But I do think Lloyd would not have put Velvet on that list were they partners: I just don't see the point, or the benefit.

Put another way: if I was a traitor with Velvet (as I was in a previous game), I wouldn't put Velvet on that list.

[[M] Elize]

Whew, I'm talking a lot today. I need to stop for air!

Haha! Buckle in kids, Teepo's taking over!

So I noticed in Jade's skit something of interest. It said Leather Coat Dude - may his soul rest in peace - found out who the miller was. There have been Three Nights so far, and assuming Eizen used all his investigations, that's three candidates. We have our tactician Rowen, and two unknowns. What's annoying is that Eizen didn't just lay it all out for us at the end of yesterday, that would've helped at least get some names. But it means Rowen has the potential - and only a potential - of being miller. The other two are unknown. Nothing can be done for now, but if a skit reveals some more information about this Eizen's investigations then it's good to get back to that.

The final piece of Jade's skit is damning for you cretinous traitorinos! I wish we knew who the person was who knows the identity of one of them. For the record - and I accept it is just the word of me, the infallible Teepo, it isn't me. I'm waiting on Raven's 80% proof thing.

Also: any idea where Anise got to? I'd value her input while I sock her puppet in the jaw, for I am the superior puppet! Mwahahaha! ULTIMATE POWER!!! *Thwack*

[[M] Felix]

This reasoning here,

Throwing Velvet under the bus makes no sense though. Velvet was in no danger of being lynched at that stage. You'd usually throw someone under a bus if they were going to be lynched anyway so you would look super helpful and nice by lynching a traitor.

But at that stage, it would be far more preferable for a traitor to throw Lloyd under the bus. His fate was effectively sealed with Colette's last damning verdict. Traitors only through other traitors under the bus when the writing is on the wall and they might as well salvage something from it by making themselves look non-traitor.

By my reasoning then, that would implicate Pascal as 'busser' in chief, but I find that unlikely, mainly because no traitor would actually put that much effort in bussing. It is enough to look agreeable and say "oh yeah, that person is super shady" and vote Lloyd. Why bother writing paragraphs of information? There's simply no need, and traitors tend to take the path of least resistance. Kinda like Occam's razor. Simplest solution is often the most likely. A very blunt tool, but I like to keep it in mind.

is why it is a fine time to look at this stuff.

Your cretinous slight against my scientific mind aside, child, you make a compelling argument. I don't want to jump into the voting immediately, and I may just use my skit for additional information if no one else decides to. But for now, Lloyd, would you care to make a role claim more helpful and specific than "of the investigative kind" and share any pertinent information you have with us? This is not the time for vagueness, and your answer could determine what I decide to do with you.

Ah, I see Pascal has poked a few more holes in Lloyd's argument whilst I was taking the time to declare my intentions. Never mind, then.

##Vote: Lloyd

Also, it's unlikely I'm any kind of "busser-in-chief" because I lead the charge on Lloyd before Colette's post, asked others to please look at my reasoning more closely after her post, and was the first to go after Lloyd again after Colette was offed.

A busser wouldn't lead the charge from that early on.

[[M] Elize]

I need to get Teepo stronger meds.

Also, I know I haven't mentioned this yet, but I am sorry for yesterday! Pascal mentioned people didn't vote for Lloyd as much, and that is partly my fault. I fully intended to vote Lloyd, but honestly I kinda forgot about time and thought we had more time to vote and then we didn't. I'm more than happy to take some suspicion points for that, and you only have my word, but I would've voted Lloyd, for the record.

I'm so sorry, everyone!

[[M] Elize]

I've avoided commenting on Jade directly since Day One, but once again I can't help but feel Jade has done little to change my mind on my initial scepticism.

Looking back from Day One, I first voted Jade because he voted for Rita really late on even though the general consensus was to not vote anymore for Rita, as enough pressure was on her to get talking. That he went against the general consensus seemed like scoring 'non-traitor points' in a calculated manner. That initially troubled me.

And on the No Lynch bandwagon, he seemed very happy to go with the flow. Granted, lots of people were doing that, but he seemed to lack any original ideas Day One.

Day Two and Day Three were really focused on Mikleo and Lloyd respectively, but I kept an eye on Jade throughout. No vote on him. Jade ends up voting for Mikleo, which I can't hold against him because honestly Day Two was a clustergumble and everyone fell into the Mikleo trap, me included.

In fact, pretty much the main thing I can sum up with Jade is 'parroter'. He just agrees with the majority opinion, all the time. There's also my skit which points to Jade as a potential traitor (he had yet to use his skit at that point). It puts him in the frame with circumstantial evidence.

[[M] Elize]

Correction: Jade has posted a total of 15 times. In the advanced search I only set the date back a week ago, not two weeks. Apologies! But still, 15 posts is not a whole heap.

Incidentally, Jade's first post of Day Two:

This just keeps getting more and more complex.

I'm not ready to cast a vote yet, but currently, I'm rather suspicious of Raven and Collette. The former has posted quite a bit without really saying much of substance, and Collette has barely posted at all. Both could be completely innocuous, of course, but both could also be potential suspects. And I may end up agreeing with Velvet about Mikleo's suspicious nature, but I need to chart out how all of this new information could possibly fit into our preconceptions before I make any rash judgements.

I don't wish to be mean to Jade, but looking through his previous four posts, there is nothing there that I can define as 'substance'. And four posts Day One is not a ton. Four posts Day Two is not a ton. Five posts Day Three. I generally expect people to post more as they live longer, simply because there's less people and there's more to talk about.

It's all... strange, in my opinion.

[[M] Elize]

Oh to hell with it Elize! I'm suspicious, you're suspicious, the kind postman down the road is suspicious. Let's just use our vote! Our vote is our voice!

[##VOTE: Jade]

GIANT TEEPO MIC DROP!

[[M] Trevor - Gay Dad]

You label me a "parroter", but the first thing you call me out on is going against the "general consensus," which as I recall consisted only of you and Rowen agreeing to unvote. Then I am called suspicious again for withdrawing when Rita presented herself, and hopping on a No Lynch "bandwagon" -- can you really call it that when I was the third person to vote and assumed I was the second, as I was composing my answer while Pascal was submitting hers? -- because I had no other leads and agreed with the initial reasoning presented.

And then, of course, you call me out for falling into a trap you fell into yourself, and then for voting for Lloyd when his time came up. Yet you'll note that I was the first one who directly called out Lloyd's role lie, and I used completely different evidence to Pascal's earlier post. I came up with my own logical argument to support my vote and laid it out clearly, and so far this has been ignored because it doesn't fit the preconception that I'm just going with the flow.

In short, I see nothing in the suspicions lobbed against me but confirmation bias.

[[M] Trevor - Gay Dad]

And four posts Day One is not a ton. Four posts Day Two is not a ton. Five posts Day Three. I generally expect people to post more as they live longer, simply because there's less people and there's more to talk about.

It's all... strange, in my opinion. [/COLOR][/B]

And now it's strange that I posted when time allowed me? I would think 4-5 posts a cycle, each of a fair length, would be acceptable for someone with a life. Come on, now.

[[M] Elize]

4-5 posts per day would be fine, were those posts particularly detailed, or insightful, or inquisitive. In my opinion, they have not.

About the general consensus: maybe a mis-step. You briefly skimmed the Day One action, saw a Rita bandwagon was pretty popular and then jumped on the bandwagon, not realising that I said in a comment that we shouldn't be piling more pressure on her. It still falls in line with my view of you - as someone not really invested in the game of catching traitors.

I mean, sure, maybe 'general consensus' is slightly overselling it, but the point was, Rita already had enough votes for suspicion over time (for inactivity). She didn't need more for the most trivial of vote reasons. That you continued implies laziness and a 'go with the flow attitude' which is, at best, counter-productive.

As for your observations on Lloyd:

The first skit confirms outright that Lloyd is lying. If the Watcher was informed of two Mafia visiting Colette that night, then he cannot have been prevented from carrying out his role, whether by being blocked or jailed. Lloyd, you naughty boy, your case isn't getting any less incriminating for you.

If that is the only unique, original idea you've had in four days action, then what kind of scientist are you?

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

At this point, it's all or nothing. I could save this up for later, but if we're not careful there might not be a later.

##Skit: Activate

[[M] Al - Biker Dad]

Jade killed Eizen last night.

##Vote: Jade

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

...Hmm

##Unvote: Lloyd
##Vote: Raven

Man, you really just don't trust me, huh? Oh well. If I didn't think you were just stubborn, I'd think you were mafia just because you refuse to look at evidence. It's actually starting to make me keep an eye on you.

Gosh Pascal, and people say I'm the one with the ego? My decision had nothing to do with contradicting you - the Lloyd vote was all but locked down anyway - and everything to do with distrusting Raven. Let's take a look:

I would like to discuss as well the 4 who we know one (just not which one) is scum.

Eizen
Rowan
Jade
Velvet

Let me crunch some number here.

Lloyd - 3 (Pascal, Jade, Velvet, Rita)
Raven - 1 (Rita)

The charming Lloyd who was a Mafia Roleblocker played but the very skilled Karifean!

I would bet money on Jade being scum. I have what I need for 80% positive on him. He will be my vote the next day.

- If Raven is a Miller with no active role, what 'information' does he have to make him "80% sure" of Jade's guilt?
- This was AFTER Jade voted to lynch Lloyd, who was confirmed to be a Mafia roleblocker.
- Raven, although going along with us in the conversation... did not vote to lynch Lloyd.

So, the guy who didn't vote for the Mafia member when we were all pretty certain he was Mafia (and indeed turned out to be) is somehow, despite having no special ability, 80% confident that Jade is a) mafia and b) voted to lynch his own comrade.

It's not that I don't trust you Pascal, it's that I sure as heck don't trust Raven.

[[M] Mom – Host]

Here is your skit, Rowen!

Does anyone else have any more information they can share? With most of our power roles gone, lynching is the only tool we have left.



Let's go over the roles we have left. We know we have a tracker and a watcher.



I can tell you that the watcher is town, but the tracker is mafia.



That's helpful. And the Godfather is still in play as far as mafia goes.



As for town, we still have the ascetic and the supersaint, so we again need to be careful who we lynch. The miller is our other townie, which apparently our cop discovered but did not report.



Maybe he didn't report it because he discovered it the night he died. In any case, he doesn't seem to have voted for the miller at any point, that might help us out.



And aside from that, the only two left... are our independents. This is going to be a tough road indeed. Our only strength now is our superior numbers.

[[M] Elize]

That skit is positively jam-packed with information. Let's take the time to pick it apart because it reviews much about the roles we have left remaining, and also the possible identity of Eizen's final investigation target.

I'll do this tomorrow. I feel as if I've talked too much today and I'd like to get other perspectives involved. I still wish to hear from Anise, and also Rowen, who activated his Skit but has yet to make a significant impact in my view.