Tales of Mafia XXXI - Super Fun Game Thread

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

The miller is our other townie, which apparently our cop discovered but did not report.

The Miller is defined as a townie in their role:

Miller - This player is a townie who will investigate as Mafia to the cop.

So in actual fact, Eizen wouldn't have known about his discovery at all, he would've just seen someone as mafia. But this skit tells us that he found the Miller; whoever Eizen targeted is the Miller. If we have any way to know his actions that I've overlooked, please help me out with that.

For now though, I'm putting my vote where I stand at this moment. Given the suspicions I've outlined above, and I don't think I've seen anything that contradicts my conclusion...

##Vote: Raven

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Jade killed Eizen last night.

##Vote: Jade

Just a quick question, oh great Lord of Calamity: how do you know that?

[[M] Aaron]

Sorry I am still at work as it's been a long day and I am on overtime. I will start by saying "I" being me am positive on Jade being scum. Yes I am the Miller with no night power so I read the person in thread. I put it at 80% because there is always the thought in the back of my mind that I could be wrong. As the puppet lady kindly pointed out what I have said since the beginning on Jade but was told it was wishy washy bye who??? Jade. It could be our good Cop decided to check on me last night due to me saying straight out I was 80% sure on Jade. It was you guys saying I had a power Role, I never did. I just said I was 80% sure Jade was mafia. Now I am 95% sure.

##Vote: Jade

[[M] Aaron]

I also think I figured out who the lyncher is off of Jades Skit. However he counts towards town so I will let it lie for now.

[[M] Felix]

- If Raven is a Miller with no active role, what 'information' does he have to make him "80% sure" of Jade's guilt?
- This was AFTER Jade voted to lynch Lloyd, who was confirmed to be a Mafia roleblocker.
- Raven, although going along with us in the conversation... did not vote to lynch Lloyd.

So, the guy who didn't vote for the Mafia member when we were all pretty certain he was Mafia (and indeed turned out to be) is somehow, despite having no special ability, 80% confident that Jade is a) mafia and b) voted to lynch his own comrade.

It's not that I don't trust you Pascal, it's that I sure as heck don't trust Raven.

Okay, you have some a decent observation, and I agree that Raven's post isn't exactly hard evidence. However, using the argument that not voting for Lloyd makes him suspicious isn't very strong. Barely any of you did, even with very strong evidence.

Heck, one of the people who did is still on my mafia list. A little while ago, I had a list of Jade, Raven, and Rowen.

I think I can safely remove Rowen for now, but that still leaves Jade, Raven, and maybe you and Anise. I still think you're just stubborn, but I'm not happy with Anise conveniently being out of the conversation again.

As far as the skit, we now know that Ascethic is indeed a town role, so tracker would have shown up during an investigation if they were mafia.

Also, I went back through the thread, and Eizen only ever voted for Velvet that I can see. Someone feel free to go back and double check, I could have missed it. Anyway, if that's correct then Velvet is not our Miller.

[[M] Aaron]

I am the Miller. So far there has been 0 counter claims to that because I am.

[[M] Trevor - Gay Dad]

##Vote: Velvet

Seems inevitable that you peasants are going to lynch me on no more suspicion than the openly baseless claims of the presumed Miller, my relative inactivity, and my apparent tendency to follow what turns out to be the popular opinion (even if I make my posts before it becomes the popular opinion), but I thought I should draw more attention to a vote presented with no evidence and not even the weakest scrap of an argument.

It will go entirely undiscussed and ignored, I know, but I felt I should at least cast a vote for posterity.

[[M] Elize]

##Vote: Velvet

Seems inevitable that you peasants are going to lynch me on no more suspicion than the openly baseless claims of the presumed Miller, my relative inactivity, and my apparent tendency to follow what turns out to be the popular opinion (even if I make my posts before it becomes the popular opinion), but I thought I should draw more attention to a vote presented with no evidence and not even the weakest scrap of an argument.

It will go entirely undiscussed and ignored, I know, but I felt I should at least cast a vote for posterity.

You know, I wish you wouldn't keep inflating the value of the fifteen or so posts you've made. Of the posts you've made before my vote on you, I could find only one that could be seen as 'preemptive' or 'taking the initiative'. Virtually every other post is either flavor-posting or agreeing with someone else.

To clarify: agreeing with another statement is fine. Healthy, even. But almost all of your posts have been of that nature, so please don't say you make your posts before it becomes popular opinion, because it really hasn't according to my post analysis.

...

Despite this, I am a little uneasy with the reasons both Velvet and Raven have given. Velvet seems very adamant about your guilt, but gives no evidence. I am dubious, to say the least. I could surmise - perhaps - that Velvet is either a tracker or watcher, and saw you perform an action on Eizen during the night. That's what I'm guessing, though I admit some discomfort.

As for Raven, the man is as slippery as you. His vote post on you Jade is kinda hard to read and gives nothing away.

I also hate the sensation that I'm being taken advantage of. I vote Jade, then suddenly two people with barely comprehensible reasons vote Jade also? Ehhhhhh. I hate a lack of clarity. Non-traitors should do their best to lay out exactly who they are voting for, and for what reason, unless they have such an important power role that some degree of anonymity needs to be afforded, but even so.

On the smaller topic of the Miller, I do find it interesting that there has been no counter-claim against Raven's Miller claim. We know there is a Miller in play, so it isn't as if he could safely fake-claim that.

I will directly ask then:

- Velvet, what is your reason for being 100% certain that Jade is a traitor?

- Raven, what is your reason for being 80% certain that Jade is a traitor?

Lastly,

- Anise, you've been very quiet so far today. Please speak up.

[[M] Aaron]

I will say that I said yesterday that I am voting Jade today. You and velvet just beet me to it.

I am positive Jade is scum. Everything she has done so far has checked off on my boxes of watch out. Jade has done nothing all game, just pointed a finger. Since her misvote on Rita day one I knew Jade was scum. She has just browsed the thread, placed a vote, then bolted. Her post would have been even less if I haven't been all over him since day one.

Most of Jades posts have been:

"Raven and Velvet are scum"

Now I have yet to have anyone give me any evidence that I am scum. I have played an aggressive style and maybe rubbed some people wrong, but I chose to try and share everything, and hunt for scum all game.

Everything I said can be backed up within the thread if people just look at my posts.

[[M] Mom – Host]

Raven, bro, Jade is a man.

Also Anise is absent because she is sicky, just to let everyone know!

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Okay, you have some a decent observation, and I agree that Raven's post isn't exactly hard evidence. However, using the argument that not voting for Lloyd makes him suspicious isn't very strong. Barely any of you did, even with very strong evidence.

No, but that he's so confident in Jade, even though he did vote for Lloyd, adds to that suspicion. Now, of course a mafia can vote for another mafia - it's a good way to seem less suspicious. However, it's also highly risky. As I decided to change my vote to Raven, the vote was 3-1. Had Jade voted Raven, it could have been 2-2. So Jade voting Lloyd does work in his favour in my view.

I am the Miller. So far there has been 0 counter claims to that because I am.

On the smaller topic of the Miller, I do find it interesting that there has been no counter-claim against Raven's Miller claim. We know there is a Miller in play, so it isn't as if he could safely fake-claim that.

Not so fast there. There are more reasons not to counter-claim Miller than "Raven is telling the truth". For example, let's say, hypothetically, that I was the Miller. I would currently know, without any doubt, that Raven is lying. So he would probably be Mafia or Independent.

There are 8 players remaining. That means, with no other information, the odds of another town voting to lynch me are 1 in 7 (per townie).
However, if I counter-claim Miller, then town knows that EITHER Raven or I are lying, and most likely mafia. My odds of being voted are now closer to 1 in 2 (per townie).

So if I were the real Miller, I would think twice before counter-claiming if I could get away with not doing so.

[[M] Felix]

Okay, you have some a decent observation, and I agree that Raven's post isn't exactly hard evidence. However, using the argument that not voting for Lloyd makes him suspicious isn't very strong. Barely any of you did, even with very strong evidence.

No, but that he's so confident in Jade, even though he did vote for Lloyd, adds to that suspicion. Now, of course a mafia can vote for another mafia - it's a good way to seem less suspicious. However, it's also highly risky. As I decided to change my vote to Raven, the vote was 3-1. Had Jade voted Raven, it could have been 2-2. So Jade voting Lloyd does work in his favour in my view.

I'm still very suspicious of Jade even though I led the (correct) charge on Lloyd, so that doesn't really mean much to me. Despite what he says about coming up with his own reasoning first, you can go back and check through the thread. I submitted my reasoning first, Jade responded to it and said "Hmmm, this doesn't look good.", and then when I caught Lloyd in a lie he finally agreed Lloyd was mafia. Raven did the exact same thing, actually. Heck, that's the thing. Most of you went "Well that doesn't look good for Lloyd." and then sat on your votes for 2-days. It was weird. So all that suspicion you have on Raven for not voting applies to everyone else.

If anything, Jade might be the odd man out for getting on my vote train so early. I'm thinking that as mafia he could see what was coming and wisely chose to distance himself from Lloyd before it looked too suspicious that he defended him.

I am the Miller. So far there has been 0 counter claims to that because I am.

On the smaller topic of the Miller, I do find it interesting that there has been no counter-claim against Raven's Miller claim. We know there is a Miller in play, so it isn't as if he could safely fake-claim that.

Not so fast there. There are more reasons not to counter-claim Miller than "Raven is telling the truth". For example, let's say, hypothetically, that I was the Miller. I would currently know, without any doubt, that Raven is lying. So he would probably be Mafia or Independent.

There are 8 players remaining. That means, with no other information, the odds of another town voting to lynch me are 1 in 7 (per townie).
However, if I counter-claim Miller, then town knows that EITHER Raven or I are lying, and most likely mafia. My odds of being voted are now closer to 1 in 2 (per townie).

So if I were the real Miller, I would think twice before counter-claiming if I could get away with not doing so.

This is reasoning I agree with, and why I'm also not surprised no one has counter-claimed. Beyond that though, it's making me think Raven actually is the miller. He claimed before Eizen was dead, and I think he was hoping for a long shot confirmation that he at least shows up as mafia. Something like this.

So either Raven is telling the truth or he's mafia. We can pretty much rule out him being the Lyncher or the Survivor at this point, as if a cop investigated him and he showed up as 'other' instead of mafia then he'd be signing his own death warrant. Given the timing of the claim, my hypothesis would be that Raven is not the Miller, but a Watcher, and he passed the information on to Lloyd. But there's no proof of that, just a hunch.

Now he's screwed. Because that final line says it all. Hunches. My gut says Jade, yours says Raven, and I respect that. Still, I've been more suspicious of Jade this whole time.

[Vote##: Jade]

P.S. No offense, buddy, but your hunches have been off this whole game. It's one reason why I'm still looking at you as potentially the last mafia. If you're not mafia, go back and look at your hunch record. It's not so good.

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

- Velvet, what is your reason for being 100% certain that Jade is a traitor?

This is the same issue I have brought up in the past. We're beyond the point where you can keep silent on this matter, Velvet. Please explain yourself, or I will be forced to assume that you are mafia.

[[M] Anise]

Sorry for being absent. Been dealing with a terrible illness.

Trying to recap on everything.

Jade is suspicious as you've all mentioned so I wont go too much further atm until I read more.

I'm still not keen on the Miller claim. Without Eizen around anymore, how do we confirm that? I mean I just feel they knew there was a cop and claiming miller would have been safe if they saw themselves targeted. People had mentioned and the skit that there's some investigatory role on the mafia. It's how lloyd knew stuff right? Miller would be the safest claim if they knew they had been targetted.

I'll have to review more of the thread. Once again, terribly sorry I haven't been active. I've been pretty much dying and enjoying the comfort of my bed the past few days. I'll try to be more active now though.

[[M] Al - Biker Dad]

I'm the Watcher, btw.

I watched Eizen last night and Jade was the only one who targeted him.

Lock him up!