Tales of Mafia XXXI - Super Fun Game Thread

[[M] Aaron]

Since the lyncher is technically a townie I put it aside too. I have a good idea who it is though. As for the last mafia??? I have thoughts.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Right, I don't think there's anything I can further add to convince you of my Raven hypothesis. Well, there is one thing, but I think it's important to take care of the Jade situation before turning to that. If I survive the night then... well, tomorrow's going to be an interesting day.

##Unvote: Raven
##Vote: Jade

[[M] Mom – Host]

A majority lockdown has occurred! Let's check out the votes!

Jade - 5 (Elize, Velvet, Raven, Pascal, Rita)
Raven - 0 (Rita)
Velvet - 1 (Jade)

Town has spoken, and the new lynchee is none other than...

The brilliant and sarcastic Jade, who was the Mafia Godfather, played by our new forum friend KleinerKiller!

Night Four

You have 24 hours to submit to me your night actions!

[[M] Mom – Host]

It seems that there was another casualty in the night. Tonight's victim was...

Our leading lady, Velvet, the Town Watcher, played by the ever skilled Scruffington!

It seems that town is out of power roles. Now all you have are your superior numbers.

DAY FIVE

You have 48 hours. Halftime starts at 24, when a majority lynch can happen. 4 votes are needed for a majority lynch. Happy hunting!

[[M] Felix]

No big surprise they went after the last power role.

Okay, if you have theories on who you don't like and why, let's hear 'em!

I don't know if anyone else is thinking this, but I'm starting to view Rita as the possible lyncher. I don't know if she's mafia, but she seems to have a laser focus on Raven right now, and has for a while at the expense of not voting for obvious mafia just to suggest Raven. She has decent reasoning, but as more time goes by, the less chance there is that he's anything but a miller.

As for mafia, I have suspicion that's really all. Any other ideas or thoughts?

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

This game has really gotten away from me, to be honest. I'm totally lost.

[[M] Greg - Hot Dad]

Bit of a shot in the dark, but here goes.

##Vote: Raven

They just seem shady. Convince me they're not mafia, and I'll change my vote.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Aw man, I kinda liked Velvet T_T

She has decent reasoning, but as more time goes by, the less chance there is that he's anything but a miller.

Yeah, about that... now that we're down to the last mafia I think it's time for me to tell you that the miller, in fact, is me.

So that's why I've been focusing on Raven. He is our final mafia. So, I'm sure you have questions; ask away, I'll do my best to answer. For now though, my vote should be fairly obvious.

##Vote: Raven

[[M] Anise]

Two Miller claims? Someone is lying.

Raven said he was miller very early on but Eizen (cop) was murdered before they could confirm or deny that Raven was investigated. I have been wondering why they would have claimed so early with that role unless they knew they were targeted.

But then Rita's now miller claim is a bit out there because.. why not mention that before and call out the mafia player? Fishy.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Two Miller claims? Someone is lying.

Raven said he was miller very early on but Eizen (cop) was murdered before they could confirm or deny that Raven was investigated. I have been wondering why they would have claimed so early with that role unless they knew they were targeted.

But then Rita's now miller claim is a bit out there because.. why not mention that before and call out the mafia player? Fishy.

As a matter of fact it was very deliberate, and there's two main reasons why; first, announcing yourself as the Miller makes you a target for the mafia, and second, I would be taking a big risk that people would believe Raven instead of me.

With so many mafia around, it was safer to remain unknown and play along until I could call him out at a safer time, which is now. The two most likely outcomes of me counter-claiming Miller now are: 1) Raven dies, 2) I die.

Had I counter claimed immediately, I would have risked death, and then if I had survived I would have risked being killed that night. After all, the mafia would know that I'm not mafia, so they would know that I'm town rather than an independent, and I'd be a nice easy target whenever it was convenient for them to kill me. On that note, do please notice how Raven has survived since his claim, despite being the only person who the mafia could be certain was town (if he is telling the truth).

Now, however, I either die or we win the game. I think this was the only reasonable time for me to counter claim.

[[M] Anise]

If you claimed miller then that makes you more of just a townie who could be seen as a mafia person. They'd want to keep you before killing the cop to throw people off, right? You'd be an asset not a target? The mafia would be going off those bigger power roles, a miller wouldn't be much of an issue I wouldn't think. Like what is your power, you come up as one of them. They already know you're not mafia. I wouldn't think going for an independent would be that big of deal either when we have such a role heavy game.

I am agreeing with Pascal here in thinking, you're the lyncher. Raven is the Lynchee.

##Vote: Rita

[[M] Anise]

Finding the other Mafia is of course a priority, but if you get this lynch off, everyone loses and you're the winner. I'd rather win as a group than lose to just one person.

[[M] Felix]

I actually agree with Anise's reasoning on why mafia wouldn't bother with killing off the miller. Miller is a vanilla townie with bad luck, and mafia never kills vanillas when they can get rid of power roles first. Why do you think they killed Velvet? Velvet can watch people, and who ever is mafia doesn't want people watching them.

I'm pretty confident that Rita is lyncher, so the only way they win is to kill off their target. Since that target is town and we need town, I don't see the harm in letting her hang around as long as we don't fall for her tricks and vote Raven. That loses us a townie.

My focus is on who is actually mafia. We have Anise, Rowen, and Elize left and I think it's time to hear some role claims.

EDIT: In fact, I can't believe I hadn't thought of this first, it's the perfect time for the lyncher to come out as the miller because there's not other power roles left. Now Raven has a good chance of getting killed off because the other townie roles are just as passive. If mafia kills off Raven before the lyncher does, it's game over for them.

This might be a final push to win the game as lyncher for Rita before mafia takes away that chance.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Had I counter claimed immediately, I would have risked death, and then if I had survived I would have risked being killed that night. After all, the mafia would know that I'm not mafia, so they would know that I'm town rather than an independent, and I'd be a nice easy target whenever it was convenient for them to kill me.

I feel like I should clarify this part. Reading it back there's a logical step that I haven't explained.

One of the factors that made me want to hold off on counter-claiming straight away was the possible presence of the Cop. I can't remember if we'd confirmed a cop at the point Raven made his claim or if it were merely a possibility. Anyway, if you suspect a cop is in play you basically confirm that you aren't an independent. I pointed this fact out myself when Raven made his claim:

So either Raven is telling the truth or he's mafia. We can pretty much rule out him being the Lyncher or the Survivor at this point, as if a cop investigated him and he showed up as 'other' instead of mafia then he'd be signing his own death warrant.

Basically, when there's a cop in play you only claim miller when you know you're going to investigate as 'mafia'. Which means claiming Miller with a cop around makes you either town or mafia. From a town perspective... you could be lying. So that makes you 50% mafia or 50% town. Mafia, however, know that you aren't mafia. Which makes you 100% town, and reduces the risk that they'll waste a night kill on an independent.

[[M] Anise]

I actually agree with Anise's reasoning on why mafia wouldn't bother with killing off the miller. Miller is a vanilla townie with bad luck, and mafia never kills vanillas when they can get rid of power roles first. Why do you think they killed Velvet? Velvet can watch people, and who ever is mafia doesn't want people watching them.

I'm pretty confident that Rita is lyncher, so the only way they win is to kill off their target. Since that target is town and we need town, I don't see the harm in letting her hang around as long as we don't fall for her tricks and vote Raven. That loses us a townie.

My focus is on who is actually mafia. We have Anise, Rowen, and Elize left and I think it's time to hear some role claims.

Ahh you're probably right about this. I mean as long as we don't lynch Raven than Rita can't win? But we'd still have more so the majority doesn't dwindle for that last mafioso to win.

##Unvote: Rita