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Thread: Tales of Mafia XXXI - Super Fun Game Thread

  1. #376
    By Your Command Recognized Member [M] Mom – Host's Avatar
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    It is officially past halftime! Here are the votes so far, if I am correct. Please let me know if I got anything wrong!

    Raven - 2 (Rowen, Rita)
    Rita - 1 (Raven)


    You have 24 hours left to decide. Majority lynches can happen at this point. 4 are needed for a majority lynch. Happy hunting!

  2. #377

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    Okay, so here's what I'm currently thinking:

    At this stage, we need to be careful not to lynch a Third-Party, because as was revealed earlier, they technically count as Town for lose-state purposes, and we don't want to lynch anyone other than a traitor at this point if we can help it. Thankfully, I do believe we are allowed one more day if this one fails to lynch Mafia. But let's not count on that.

    So who's left? Lemme recap and get the pieces set into my head.

    That's why I'm around, Elize. I've been memorising all the pretty ladies for you!

    *Blush* Grk-no, Teepo, I never told you that!

    But I thought you said very clearly to remember the names and numbers of all the eligible-

    Uh forget about that. Give me all the names, now!

    Well the only guys left are Rowen, who's pretty cool, and Raven who creeps me out. The others are Anise, Pascal and Rita. And us!

    Okay, I remember them all now.

    So, to make this easier I'm using a dreaded itemised list just so I can be sure to cover everyone:

    *Elize opens up her notebook. Lots of pink stickers adorn the cover, probably given to her by the pink twins in Sharilton*

    - Rowen:

    For me, he's been pretty Null the whole game, which is annoying. He's posted nothing of much interest, though he's encouraged others to formulate ideas and generate discussion, so that works in his favour as far as my read on him is concerned. All told? Still not sure.

    - Raven:

    Where do I even begin? I still assert that a miller should claim as such immediately on Day One so the Cop avoids wasting an investigation on them, and if you have a shady role like that you're better off coming clean regardless, at least in my opinion. Also, if a Mafia did roleclaim, we would've exposed a Mafia there and then. It'd then be 50/50 killing Mafia Day One, or 100% Day Two. We might've lost our Miller, but that's a better Town role to lose than say, our Enabler.

    Other than his role-claim, he's had a couple of weird ideas and suggestions that's kept the heat on him. This makes me question him being a traitor, honestly. His traitor allies would've instructed him on what to say or not. They wouldn't just carelessly let Raven go on with his theories.

    Weirdness aside he's occasionally shown a good idea. He was the first person to think we didn't have a doctor, though that was with zero evidence. He accurately found Jade suspicious, and didn't jump on that bandwagon: he consistently found Jade suspicious from about Day Two, well before I kickstarted that particular lynch hunt.

    My opinion on him is still malleable, but my impression on him is that he's been helpful- well, he's at least been trying to scumhunt, and has done so pretty consistently across all five days.

    - Rita

    If I believe Raven, that makes Rita most likely the Lyncher. If I believe Rita is the miller, then my same critique stands.

    She had a late start but that's neither here nor there. Her track record with proven traitors is patchy. "
    I'm not very suspicious of Jade. I'm not sure what it is, maybe I'm just attracted to his mystique, who knows?"

    That's a really flimsy reason. Her other main reason for Raven: being adamant that Jade is a traitor, seems slightly weak, because I mean I was pretty suspicious of Jade throughout the game.

    Her argument: that claiming Miller puts a target on your back, is fair but then I would rather a Miller be night-killed than almost anyone else.

    Personally? I'm suspecting Rita is the Lyncher. It does correlate with the fact that she only became suspicious and openly advocated for Raven on Day Three. A Lyncher wouldn't immediately open up with their target. It isn't proof, but with all our power roles deciding to off themselves, all we can do is use circumstantial evidence.

    - Anise

    She has posted since Pascal called out me, Rowan and herself to role-claim. She patently ignored that, which is setting off alarm bells. She's been present throughout most of the game (sans the day where she was ill, which is fair enough) so activity isn't an issue.

    Her post history is fairly unremarkable, skimming through. She's been much more active today, maybe to make up for being ill, maybe for another reason.

    She's suspicious primarily because from my perspective, we have, in descending order of probability and certainty:

    Myself: Non-traitor
    Pascal: Prob!Survivor/Bodyguard

    Raven: Trend!Miller and Lynchee
    Rita: Trend!Lyncher

    Rowen: Null!Read
    Anise: Null!Read

    In my opinion, the most suspicious members are Anise and Rowen, but of the two, Anise in my opinion according to my feeling is most suspicious, thus I want her to reveal her role first. She has ignored one request so far.

  3. #378
    Mafia Townsperson [M] Aaron's Avatar
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    Elize thank you for putting it much better than I could have. Your analysis lines up with mine fairly closely, as I was initially suspicious of Rowan it has dropped some. Though Anise hasn't been suspicious per say, it's kind of down to the who is left with the roles and she has dodged you due to most likely being the final scum.

    ##Unvote: Rita

  4. #379
    Mafia Townsperson [M] Felix's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by [M] Pascal View Post
    I have to say, I'm surprised more people didn't vote for Lloyd, but what can you do? The evidence was there.

    Quote Originally Posted by [M] Rita View Post
    I'm not very suspicious of Jade. I'm not sure what it is, maybe I'm just attracted to his mystique, who knows? From those four I'm most suspicious of Eizen as he has an active ability and he went to see Rowen night one. Although if Lloyd does turn out to be Mafia, would he have dropped his buddy Eizen in it with his Watcher story?
    I'm actually particularly interested in Jade and Rowen right now. I wasn't really looking at Eizen too hard, but that's because I knew Lloyd was mafia.

    Quote Originally Posted by [M] Rita View Post
    ...Hmm

    ##Unvote: Lloyd
    ##Vote: Raven
    Man, you really just don't trust me, huh? Oh well. If I didn't think you were just stubborn, I'd think you were mafia just because you refuse to look at evidence. It's actually starting to make me keep an eye on you.

    Quote Originally Posted by [M] Raven View Post
    I would bet money on Jade being scum. I have what I need for 80% positive on him. He will be my vote the next day.
    I'm very curious about what this information is.
    Quote Originally Posted by [M] Pascal View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by [M] Jade View Post
    Rowen, Elize, and Rita at least seem like safe townies. Not certain about Pascal or Anise, but I do not suspect them of illicit activities as much as I do Raven or Velvet.
    I don't like yes men that seem to engage in the conversation without actually giving anything. I have you pegged pretty hard for mafia right now. It was a two way tie between you and Rowen before Elize mentioned the Eizen investigation situation. It makes a fair amount of sense. It's not 100%, but it puts you in the lead.

    So it's nice of you to put into words who you are and aren't suspicious of. It helps me decide who I should be looking at closer that might have been slipping under my radar. Especially since you put me in the group with her. My guess is you did the classic tactic of suggest one mafia, and one townie. Time to go back re-read Anise's posts really closely. Who Knows?

    Maybe you didn't though, and since I'm already wondering why Rita refuses to see the writing on the wall sometimes, perhaps you're trying to pull attention off of her.

    I'm still waiting to hear what Raven has to say about you. If I could know whether or not he was actually the miller it would do a lot towards giving his words strength.
    Digging in the way back machine, it's interactions like these that show Rita to be the lyncher, and ignore-able, while Jade's comments about who he suspected and why could be useful.

    It's speculation, but we have to ask ourselves if he put Rowen on his "good list" to pull suspicion off the last mafia, or if he put Anise on the "medium list" with me trying to do the same thing.

    It originally helped me look at Anise a little harder since she hadn't really done much one way or another at that point. I have also been thinking she may be the final mafia, but it's definitely not a certainty. I'll be okay either way at this point, but if town wants to vote Anise I think she's as good a bet as any.

    ##Vote: Anise

    I'll change my vote with town to be a team player on this one if you don't like the Anise vote, but I know I've mentioned Anise as a possible mafia a few times myself, so I think we're all in a agreement. Just let me know for sure!

  5. #380

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    Well today I decided to spend my entire morning playing minecraft. So sorry about that. Last night I was dealing with incremental weather and power outages.

    So I wasn't actively avoiding role claiming today after you asked, I just wasn't on eoff. Sorry!

    I would hold off on the vote for me lest you lot want someone to go boom! That sounds more dangerous than it is. Supersaint here, though. I know that seems like the perfect roleclaim to make to keep my skin right now, which is why I've also just avoided claiming it. "Oh no guys, I am the supersaint, don't kill me or someone will go down with me" is totally what a mafia would claim, so I understand if you don't believe me. I've been trying to remain somewhat active (As much as I can.. well besides this morning but I did make a really cool dam with neat towers on it) to help my fellow townies without drawing a lot of suspicion so I didn't get lynched and take out more town than was needed.

    I hope that helps everyone. If you believe me, that's great! If not, I understand. I haven't been playing the best game this time around due to my personal life issues. So I can see how I may not seem as convincing as I should be. Either way, do what you feel is best, town! Just be careful because whoever casts the last vote on me will go down with me. I'm not sure how that puts us against the mafia though.

    Elize, Rowen, Rita, Raven, Pascal, Anise.

    So right now it's 1 to 5. If we lynch a person that's 1:4 but if that person is me, and the other person who votes me last is town then it's 1:3 and then the mafia has a night kill and it's 1:2 the next day. I don't know if that means the mafia wins or if they have to convince one person that the other is mafia? I'm not sure how that would work.

  6. #381

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    Thank you Anise. I'll hold back on commenting on your role-claim - and issuing my own - until I've heard Rowen's claim for myself.

    Rowen: please state your role.

    Damn, this day is getting serious, Elize. Even our voices aren't quite sounding like our own!

  7. #382
    Mafia Townsperson [M] Greg - Hot Dad's Avatar
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    Got you, Anise. You're mafia. I know, because I'm the supersaint.

    [##Unvote: Raven]
    [##Vote: Anise]

  8. #383
    Mafia Townsperson [M] Greg - Hot Dad's Avatar
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    I'll even put my money where my mouth is. If others agree to vote for Anise, then I'll unvote her and make sure I'm the last one to vote for her. If she's the supersaint, her ability will take me out. Only it won't. Because she isn't.

  9. #384

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    Well of course you'd say that. That would just leave you as the mafia. Of course you'd say you're my role. Come on.

  10. #385

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    ##Vote: Rowen

  11. #386

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    Before I say anything, let's take stock as to where we are with the voting at this point.


    Day Five

    Majority Lynch Occurs at FourVotes

    Anise - 2 (Pascal, Rowen)
    Raven - 1 (Rowen, Rita)
    Rowen - 1 (Anise)

    Rita
    - 0 (Raven)

    Elize and Raven are yet to vote


    Anise is currently on two votes. If Rowen decides to follow through with his vote plan he outlined above, then he takes the risk that he is wrong. Of course, he's very adamant he isn't. Let's leave the vote count for now.

    I should explain myself. My plan was to get the two 'unknowns' - Anise and Rowen - to roleclaim first. As these two are by far the most likely to be Mafia, I wanted them to claim first without any prior knowledge. If they are telling the truth, then all is well. If one of them is lying, it will be easiest to tell if they are lying, thanks to Pascal's post, quoted below:

    Quote Originally Posted by [M] Pascal View Post
    Bodyguard - Will protect someone else from night kills at the expense of their own life. Cannot be night killed if targeted directly.
    Lyncher - Will be assigned a player they need to convince other players to lynch. If they succeed they win no matter which faction wins, but if their target is night killed or lynched without them also voting to lynch that person, they become a vanilla townie.
    Roleblocker - Blocks a person's ability and/or role at night.
    Jailkeeper - Prevents a person from being night killed but also prevents them from using their role or ability.
    Survivor - Must survive until the end of the game to win. They win with either faction.
    Watcher - They will be informed of the name of the player(s) of anyone who targets their chosen player during the night.
    Tracker - They will be told the name of the player that their chosen player targets during the night.
    Doctor - They will protect another player from a night kill.
    Cop - This player can select another player at night and will be told whether they are town, mafia, or other.
    Supersaint - If this player is killed, they will also kill the player whom cast the last vote on them.
    Miller - This player is a townie who will investigate as Mafia to the cop.
    Ascetic - This player is immune to all night actions EXCEPT for night kills.
    Bulletproof - This player cannot be night killed.
    Enabler - If this player is killed, another player will lose an ability or role.
    Godfather - This player is mafia that will investigate as Town to the cop.
    Pascal's list here is a very handy guide to looking at which roles are left unconfirmed as being held by someone.

    My current opinion is that Miller and Lyncher are pretty much confirmed with Raven and Rita respectively. Not 100%, but it is looking that way. Therefore, the only roles remaining are:

    Tracker
    Supersaint
    Ascetic

    At about this point I'll confirm that I am the Ascetic Townie.

    My gambit therefore in getting Anise and Rowen to roleclaim is simple: if they roleclaim as my role before me, they are lying, and therefore a traitor. By making them make the first move, they have no prior knowledge and could fall into my trap. Had I moved first, they would know not to claim Ascetic.

    As it happens, neither claimed Ascetic (ugh) but it does confirm that one of Anise or Rowen is lying. Therefore, the drama surrounding Raven and Rita can be safely put to bed. Any lingering concerns that one of them is our last traitor can be dispelled.

    Right then? Who is it? Anise, or Rowen?

    I've outlined my general suspicions of both in my earlier wall o' text (sorry about these by the way!), but since the roleclaims, something interesting has come to light.

    Namely, I find it notable that Rowen is willing to take the last vote. He said this openly without prompting. If he was the last traitor, this would be tantamount to reflective suicide.

    Furthermore, Rowen's behaviour throughout the game aligns somewhat more closely with his claimed role than Anise. He's been pretty much in the background the whole time, very agreeable, polite. He's not stuck his neck out for any controversial opinions. Ordinarily this is suspicious but for a Supersaint not getting a Town killed through your mislynch is essential, so I buy the idea that Rowen has been quiet because he doesn't want to draw attention to himself.

    Honestly, between them neither's convinced me of their absolute innocence, but on the balance of probability I find Rowen's claim more believable, and he's the better bet regardless with his 'I'll take the last vote' idea. If he does turn out to be lying, he'll die and we win. If he backs out of the idea, he's probably the traitor.

    So, here we go:
    [##VOTE: Anise]

    The vote chart has been updated thusly:


    Day Five

    Majority Lynch Occurs at FourVotes

    Anise - 3 (Pascal, Rowen, Elize)
    Raven - 1 (Rowen, Rita)
    Rowen - 1 (Anise)

    Rita
    - 0 (Raven)

    Raven is yet to vote

  12. #387

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    Quote Originally Posted by [M] Elize View Post


    Furthermore, Rowen's behaviour throughout the game aligns somewhat more closely with his claimed role than Anise. He's been pretty much in the background the whole time, very agreeable, polite. He's not stuck his neck out for any controversial opinions. Ordinarily this is suspicious but for a Supersaint not getting a Town killed through your mislynch is essential, so I buy the idea that Rowen has been quiet because he doesn't want to draw attention to himself.


    Literally change his name to my name and i've been behaving the exact same way. Which I even pointed out in my role reveal post. :/

  13. #388
    Mafia Townsperson [M] Aaron's Avatar
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    No need to stick your neck out Rowan. As I will! I too believe that Anise is the final one and have since day 3. The fact that I wanted Jade gone first, then the Lyncher made her move on me delayed it. However if we are wrong, I at least get to block the Lyncher.

    #Vote: Anise

  14. #389

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    Similar, yes, but - and believe me, I've compared your post histories three times now - yours are more speculative and suggesting ideas while Rowen typically either agrees with someone, repetition of what someone else has said, or encouraging others to speak.

    In other words, Rowen's posts are much more cautious and tentative.

    Even without my opinion on the posts, Rowen's is simply the more tempting offer. And he freely offered it first. It's as simple as that at this point for me.

  15. #390

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    Oh, hello to you to Raven.

    Well, he's made that lockdown official. And without Rowen being the final vote.

    You impatient dunderhead!

    Really gotta hope that I'm correct on Anise in this case.

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