Tales of Mafia XXXI - Super Fun Game Thread

[[M] Felix]

Okay, you have some a decent observation, and I agree that Raven's post isn't exactly hard evidence. However, using the argument that not voting for Lloyd makes him suspicious isn't very strong. Barely any of you did, even with very strong evidence.

No, but that he's so confident in Jade, even though he did vote for Lloyd, adds to that suspicion. Now, of course a mafia can vote for another mafia - it's a good way to seem less suspicious. However, it's also highly risky. As I decided to change my vote to Raven, the vote was 3-1. Had Jade voted Raven, it could have been 2-2. So Jade voting Lloyd does work in his favour in my view.

I'm still very suspicious of Jade even though I led the (correct) charge on Lloyd, so that doesn't really mean much to me. Despite what he says about coming up with his own reasoning first, you can go back and check through the thread. I submitted my reasoning first, Jade responded to it and said "Hmmm, this doesn't look good.", and then when I caught Lloyd in a lie he finally agreed Lloyd was mafia. Raven did the exact same thing, actually. Heck, that's the thing. Most of you went "Well that doesn't look good for Lloyd." and then sat on your votes for 2-days. It was weird. So all that suspicion you have on Raven for not voting applies to everyone else.

If anything, Jade might be the odd man out for getting on my vote train so early. I'm thinking that as mafia he could see what was coming and wisely chose to distance himself from Lloyd before it looked too suspicious that he defended him.

I am the Miller. So far there has been 0 counter claims to that because I am.

On the smaller topic of the Miller, I do find it interesting that there has been no counter-claim against Raven's Miller claim. We know there is a Miller in play, so it isn't as if he could safely fake-claim that.

Not so fast there. There are more reasons not to counter-claim Miller than "Raven is telling the truth". For example, let's say, hypothetically, that I was the Miller. I would currently know, without any doubt, that Raven is lying. So he would probably be Mafia or Independent.

There are 8 players remaining. That means, with no other information, the odds of another town voting to lynch me are 1 in 7 (per townie).
However, if I counter-claim Miller, then town knows that EITHER Raven or I are lying, and most likely mafia. My odds of being voted are now closer to 1 in 2 (per townie).

So if I were the real Miller, I would think twice before counter-claiming if I could get away with not doing so.

This is reasoning I agree with, and why I'm also not surprised no one has counter-claimed. Beyond that though, it's making me think Raven actually is the miller. He claimed before Eizen was dead, and I think he was hoping for a long shot confirmation that he at least shows up as mafia. Something like this.

So either Raven is telling the truth or he's mafia. We can pretty much rule out him being the Lyncher or the Survivor at this point, as if a cop investigated him and he showed up as 'other' instead of mafia then he'd be signing his own death warrant. Given the timing of the claim, my hypothesis would be that Raven is not the Miller, but a Watcher, and he passed the information on to Lloyd. But there's no proof of that, just a hunch.

Now he's screwed. Because that final line says it all. Hunches. My gut says Jade, yours says Raven, and I respect that. Still, I've been more suspicious of Jade this whole time.

[Vote##: Jade]

P.S. No offense, buddy, but your hunches have been off this whole game. It's one reason why I'm still looking at you as potentially the last mafia. If you're not mafia, go back and look at your hunch record. It's not so good.