Tales of Mafia XXXI - Super Fun Game Thread

[[M] Mom – Host]

It's officially past halftime!

Here are the votes so far!

Raven - 1 (Velvet, Colette)
Mikleo - 1 (Velvet)
Colette - 1 (Raven)
Velvet - 2 (Eizen, Rowen)

Miss Kohaku is very tired though so let me know if I missed anything or got anything wrong.

7 needed for a majority lynch. If not, highest number of votes by the end of the day takes it.

[[M] Elize]

Elize Lutus - Happy.png

"Um, hello again, everyone! I'm truly sorry about being absent so far today. I was busy playing something called a... video game? Alvin brought me a copy from Elympios. It's really fun! I even got Milla involved! She reads a lot of books on human culture, so she was more than happy to lend me some volumes on The Art of Grinding for Fun and Profit."

Teepo - Happy.png

"Milla's looking up Grriiiinding, huh? Hey, that book sounds like something I'd be interested in!"

Elize Lutus - Happy.png

"It sounded terribly boring, but as a true video game fan, I decided to grind away like my life depended on it! It was tough, sweaty work, but I grinded away on all kinds of enemies!"

Teepo - Anguish.jpg

"Gah! Elize, that's not the kind of image I wanted!"

Elize Lutus - Happy.png

"Jude's dad didn't want me to play, saying something about 'the corruption of minors' and 'brain rot' but I was too busy grinding away to really hear any of that."

"Anyway, it seems as if I'm all grinded out now, so I'm committed to catching the traitors! I've caught up with everything so I'll be posting what I believe shortly."

[[M] Felix]

Well, one way or another, I think it's important to remember this current conversation going on above.

You've got two groups arguing, and since we don't have any leads because this is still a guessing game, I wonder if this isn't the perfect opportunity for mafia to lay low and let us sow seeds of doubt amongst ourselves. With all the people left it makes more since for mafia to lay low and let us argue.

Making a list can look scummy or helpful, obviously. It depends on the tone and reasoning behind it.

I honestly don't see a bad vibe from Velvet's actions right now. It's gruff and terse, but it doesn't read as suggestive. Velvet's trying to scum hunt.

I also don't suspect Raven. No offense, but you're statements are too obviously illogical to be mafia trying to throw us off to me. They'd need to be more subtle. I think you're just eager to put ideas out there. I like someone who's not afraid to throw out an idea, but make sure they make sense in the future or you're going to make yourself a target next time. I can see one silly suggestion as a mistake but not several.

So here's who I'm looking at.

Mikleo is indeed being quiet, so I think that's suspicious. It's day two, and they're no where around. We still have 24 hours, so I'd like to see some thoughts and suggestions.

Lloyd. I've gone back over the conversation, and he's honestly posted about as much as me, which I admit isn't a lot because of work, but he's said a lot less. It's just chiming in. A yes man.

Elize. Just because she was so very active day one, and even with the character role-playing, seemed to be trying to contribute. Now it's radio silence.

If I had to narrow it down, I'd say Lloyd or Mikleo the most for me.

EDIT: Okay, Elize post as I was writing this, so welcome back. However the post was pure role-playing. Good role-playing, but I'd like to see her thoughts on our situation right now too.

[[M] Elize]

So me and Teepo had a think, and we feel, catching up from the start of Day Two:

• Depending on the game balance, it is definitely feasible for there to be a Jailkeeper instead of a Doctor. No-one is a Vanilla, so the non-traitors might have more power in the passive and active roles than we might think normally. It's impossible to prove, and I'm not going to concern myself too much with what happened last night. At the very least, 'two roles countered each other' is a pretty vague statement to hinge too much on. I severely doubt the traitors tripped over themselves.

• Raven's initial speculation on the traitors tripping over themselves is a little unusual, but he's been useful enough and been trying to assist us. Not enough for me to think he's highly suspicious, anyway.

• I'm going to have to disagree with you Rowen, sorry! I know you're a master tactician, but I can see a certain kind of benefit with Velvet's 'itemised summary'. While it is possible that Velvet might me scattershotting suspicion to multiple people, an itemised summary does make it easier for people with short attention spans like Teepo (Hey!) to keep up.

I'm a little confused by this statement of yours, Velvet:

If there's a Jailor, they might have prevented a night kill from a potential Godfather.

If there's a Doctor, they may have prevented a kill and know who's town.

Specifically, what makes the Jailor scenario mean the may have prevented a night kill from a Godfather? Couldn't any traitor have made the kill? Maybe I'm missing something. Apologies if I'm bothering you!

• Mikleo's skit doesn't give away much. Losing the enabler would've been bad anyway, so finding out someone would love their bulletproof passive is not a shock. And I'd be astounded if the traitors failed a night kill three times in a row. I'd be happy, but astounded. And they can't cheat either.

• Pascal's idea that the cancellation was separate from the failed night kill is plausible. It'd be very unlikely for it to connected, that seems really unlikely for two-four or however many people to target. Also bear in mind that there might be an ascetic character which would effectively cancel out everything but a night kill, so there's a possibility.

In regards to using skits, Rita does make an interesting point. Those who still have active skits to use up are likely prime targets for traitors to try and lynch. As long as the number of skit-abstainers is a majority of non-traitors, it isn't so much of a problem, but after a certain point that pool of candidates is going to start looking small. I'm strongly considering using mine, as I'm scared of the dark!

I believe three people have now used skits? Pascal, Anise and Mikleo? Am I missing anyone out in particular? I agree the skits will probably grow in usefulness as the game goes on and we can figure out what they all mean.

I'll consider my skit. For now, I will:

[##VOTE: Mikleo]

His silence has not gone unnoticed. What I find strange is that he's never been completely absent, but he's barely contributed anything. He activated his skit at the most convenient time - right after someone else - so he got his out the way. If I was a traitor, with a skit that I should use because it'd be suspicious if I kept holding onto it, that'd be a good time.

But mainly the silence. If he actually puts some effort in I might reconsider.

These Seraphs. So lazy!

[[M] Trevor - Gay Dad]

Even though there has been a slight boost in activity since last I checked in, it's still abnormally quiet for the second half of the second day. It makes one ponder the possibilities. Who has their own schemes up their sleeve that they aren't sharing with the rest of us? How many of you could potentially be Mafia, and simply chattering amongst yourselves in the shadows? Hm.

With the ever-increasing complications our skits are revealing, it's difficult to say for certain whom I most want in the noose. I am still suspicious of Raven and Colette, but I'll let those lines of questioning drop for the time being since they're based more on my (almost always correct) gut instinct than solid leads. Colette seems more willing to engage now, and Raven, I admit, is more than likely just an enthusiastic fool. I have perhaps a few more queries tumbling around, but until someone dies or something else profoundly important happens, we're stuck with just that: baseless queries unsupported by concrete evidence and unfit for experimentation at present. In other words, the enemy of the scientific mind. I would almost be tempted to use my skit right now, but I feel we ought not to blow them all away right out of the gate.

So that leaves the question of... Mikleo. A few of you have pointed fingers at him thus far, and I can't say I disagree with your reasoning, much as I would love to file it away as bandwagon voting by a small crowd of paranoid animals. His pattern of popping into discussions without saying anything of use is setting off some alarms, but really, I simply lack other targets. It's frustrating to be two days into this charade and have only the faintest ideas of who could be guilty. So in the interest of pursuing my only real lead and getting this moving along to a potentially more interesting progress point:

##Vote: Mikleo

Feel free to make yourself known and try to convince me to spare you, young man. Otherwise, I'll be smiling in the crowd as you're dragged up to the noose.

[[M] Felix]

[BHe activated his skit at the most convenient time - right after someone else - so he got his out the way. If I was a traitor, with a skit that I should use because it'd be suspicious if I kept holding onto it, that'd be a good time.
[COLOR]

Elize, I'm not quite following your reasoning on why it was suspicious for him to play his skit when he did. We were all looking for information. I'd have played my skit if I hadn't already. I know people want to wait until they think it'll really give us a clue, but we were still basically clueless, so that seemed as good a time as any.

What I find curious is that he hasn't commented once since then. Either he's laying low or legitimately real life busy. Even his request for the skit was a short message, so I have the gut feeling he's just busy. Since we don't have much else, gut instinct is the best thing I have.

So for now, I'm actually going to ##Vote: LLoyd

He's commented just enough to not be suspicious in a way that is almost contributing (asking for clarification on the role list), but not really much of anything if you go back and look at it. I know it may not look like much at first, but he's suspicious to me.

[[M] Colette]

Before you criticize someone, make sure you aren't doing the very things you're criticizing them for.

You criticize Raven for not saying anything substantial, but your Day 1 "performance" was nonexistent. You criticize me for "not analyzing" but you haven't analyzed anything all game. You criticize me for "recapping general events" when you haven't done anything near as productive or pro-town all game.

A few points:

- The most Raven has done for much of the game is make claims and outlandish assumptions which are so far removed from what is actually possible and likely that he's contributed little of substance. Anyone can see that. Throwing out theories which make no sense and aren't even possible, let alone likely, isn't helpful.
- I wasn't non-existant day one. I participated and shared my thoughts as much as several other people did. Sorry if it wasn't enough participation for you since some of us work for a living but considering we had nothing to go on day one analysis was limited from everyone so claiming I contributed less than anyone else when no one had anything real to grab hold of is a flat out lie.
- I've actually analyzed more than you have. I've come out and said my reads on Raven and on you outright and I tied it to the actual behaviour that makes me suspicious of you both. I'm actually scum hunting and backing up my opinions directly. You presented a list of some actions for everyone, then proceeded to mostly say you think four people are town without ever actually tying your analysis to anything they did or that you recapped directly with the possible exception of Elize, but even scum would have a hard time downplaying their analysis of the role list. If all your going on is gut feelings then fill your boots friend but you never actually justified your reads in any way by explaining your thought process. I'm not a mind reader so when I see someone say "these people read town to me" and leave it at that, that's not analysis. Any notions running through your head about them were not shared in any meaningful detail and don't try to pretend otherwise.
- unlike you, my own analysis and explanation of who I suspect and the detailed reasons why is obviously pro town. I want to share my thoughts and have them out there so others can read them, think on them, and offer critique or alternate takes on what I'm thinking. You have not opened up your opinions to such criticisms and that's pretty clearly anti-town behaviour.

coming up with townreads of players based off of the summary I created IS analysis

Had you ever in any way referenced the actions listed in your summary when explaining your town reads I'd probably agree with you. Instead you have a post of actions and a post for your reads with nothing to connect them.

Creating a summary of events, which benefits all players, as well as forming my own independent reads from said list, is scummy.

Okay then.

When you don't use it to actually justify your reads? Yeah, pretty scummy. Not gonna lie.

[[M] Colette]

So far all I see from Colette is a point of the finger with no real work.

Strange that the two people I suspect most completely ignore the explanations for my finger pointing. Explanations which were more detailed than anything they've provided.

So when Elize shared what roles may be action and which may be passive was that a scum move? Or how about when Anize guessed which role was mafia, which could be both, and which may be Town? If you wish to point a finger at lists, you can't omit half of the lists made.

I didn't omit half the lists made, I omitted the ones that actually provided insight into the game because those ones were actually generating new info and discussion. They may still be scum but their analyses provided new information and new views on old information. Velvet's list provided nothing that everyone who read and re-read the thread (as we should all be doing) didn't already know and she provided zero analysis on any of the information in it. Her list makes her look like she's contributing when it really offered no new information or interpretation at all. It's a great way to look busy and look like she's participating without actually doing anything.

The argument that people who make a list are scum, is kinda of a weak argument and a ploy I have seen mafia use.

Good thing that's never been my argument. My argument is that people who make a list that doesn't actually contribute anything new and who never use it to provide new perspective or analyses are suspicious as hell. I was even quite clear that it wasn't enough to get me to condemn her as being scum, only that it makes me suspicious. But her posts since then are certainly pushing her more firmly into scum territory for me. I might even be more concerned about her than you at this point.

[[M] Colette]

As for role analysis, it seems pretty clear to me that if we have either a doctor or a jailkeeper but not both and two roles canceled each other out night one that we almost certainly have no doctor and the jailkeeper and roleblocker targeted each other. And this is assuming, of course, that there's only one roleblocker. If there are two then there may still be a doctor and no jailkeeper.

Now if I'm right and there's a jailkeeper but no doctor, and the jailkeeper and the roleblocker canceled each other out, then they most likely chose not to night kill hoping to convince the jailkeeper they chose correctly night one. But if there is just the one roleblocker, and assuming they're mafia as there tends to often be a mafia roleblocker, the jailkeeper might very well know the identity of the mafia roleblocker right now which is pretty important.

[[M] Colette]

And my no night kill assumption is based on them not accidentally targeting someone who's night kill immune. So that may not be the case at all obviously, but I'm sure one of the people who are more experts in strategy than me would consider the odds of that happening pretty low. We probably shouldn't rule it out though.

[[M] Colette]

Where is Raine when we need her Lloyd? I feel like she'd have solved this all by now. She's the smartest person I've ever met.

[[M] Anise]

tumblr_o2w57sa9c81u2lyiwo1_500.png

Sorry, I've been a bit busy! I'm going to look over all the post we've had so far.

And my no night kill assumption is based on them not accidentally targeting someone who's night kill immune. So that may not be the case at all obviously, but I'm sure one of the people who are more experts in strategy than me would consider the odds of that happening pretty low. We probably shouldn't rule it out though.

I wouldn't be surprised that the hit someone who's night kill immune. The skit mentioned something about if the enabler dies, we lose a bulletproof ability. They probably just got unlucky. Looking at the list from before, we have several night kill immune roles. I have never actually played a game where the mafia strategically didn't use a night kill. I think they'd avoid that too since this is a role heavy game and there was a day one no lynch.

[[M] Colette]

That is a good point Anise. And with skits especially things may get away from them if they don't act every night.

Also, if the roleblocker and jailer canceled each other, we also have to face the fact that they know who the jailer is and will be gunning for them. That would be a bad role to lose early on.

[[M] Elize]

[BHe activated his skit at the most convenient time - right after someone else - so he got his out the way. If I was a traitor, with a skit that I should use because it'd be suspicious if I kept holding onto it, that'd be a good time.
[COLOR]

Elize, I'm not quite following your reasoning on why it was suspicious for him to play his skit when he did. We were all looking for information. I'd have played my skit if I hadn't already. I know people want to wait until they think it'll really give us a clue, but we were still basically clueless, so that seemed as good a time as any.

I think what Elize was trying to point out was not so much the timing - though I still think activating his skit right after Anise's was slightly suspicious, as it created in my opinion a sort of 'overload' of information where we all have to react to the new shiny and not focus in on- oh look bazongas!

I accept it is only really a feeling, and it isn't what I'm hinging all of my suspicions on. Mainly it is that he's been very quiet. But he also activated his skit while failing to comment on the skit that went before. He didn't even comment on his own skit. It looks like he's trying to be helpful "I'm not a traitor, I'm supplying information!" when he hadn't really done anything.

But you're right: activating a skit is not suspicious. I merely find it suspicious in this instance with Mikleo. Had he commented on Anise's skit, weighed up his choices and went "I think it's time for my skit because [x]" I wouldn't have found it suspicious. But all he went was 'Interesting. Let's see how mine plays out." He didn't even hang around to see it play out.

He could be busy, doing... whatever a seraph does, but he's been present in the game just enough to make me feel he knows what he's doing. And if you're busy enough to pop in a use a skit, you have time to at string together some draft thoughts on what's going on, even if they are threadbare. And if someone is busy, they're generally apologetic about it. Like me with my grinding.

[[M] Anise]

Yeah I do agree with that line of thinking Elize. I mentioned earlier how that was weird that he only popped in to activate his skit and then didn't do anything else. I really would like to hear from Mikleo though. Hopefully we'll have them chime in today before the day ends