Quote Originally Posted by [M] Adama View Post
I can't even begin to fathom why Roslin would have moved their vote to where they did even if they weren't at the top of the lynch list. Gaius wasn't sitting right with me. Anyway.

You don't get in my position by just trusting everyone, so as much as Tigh talks a good game right now, I have to wonder about the increasingly likely chance that we have two dueling mafia teams with the same PRs for each.

Some of these ideas probably have big holes in them. Look them, analyze them, and let's get some feedback.

Scenario A) There's two dueling mafia teams, each with a one-shot doctor and a two-shot watcher. Meaning one team is completely gone and one has only a Doctor left. This would potentially put Tigh on a short list. It would also mean, if he's at least partially telling the truth, that he may have used up his ability. Considering we've lost a mafia every night, maybe he hasn't.

Scenario B) There's one mafia team with 3 people, 2 two-shot watchers and 1 one-shot doctor, and they all vote a consensus on who to kill each night. The other team is a lone mafia godfather who has managed to keep attention off of themselves while single-handedly decimating the other team. (Seems like a stretch.)

Scenario C) We have one mafia team and they are all 1 or 2 shot versions of different mafia PRs. That means we probably only have the godfather left. They've been trying to find town's PR role that keeps eliminating them, but they're struggling to get around a town doctor and a town vigilante who have been just kicking ass. Obviously this would mean the town PRs are not just one or two shot variants of their roles. If that's the case, what are the odds the godfather has any additional abilities?
Scenario A is where I believe we are. The reason we could have had only 1 death the second night is because the remaining mafia doctor saved one of their teammates. We may have no town doctor; meaning Roslin may have never been targeted. More on this later.

Scenario B doesn't work because a mafia team of 1 doesn't exist, that's called a serial killer. As it was specifically stated we have 4 mafia in this game I don't think a serial killer is likely because 4 mafia + SK vs 8 town is pretty bad odds for town, especially since we can only be certain of town having 2 PRs (inventor + either doc or tracker as one of them could be mafia and lying). So this just doesn't hold up, and I can't believe you'd even suggest it.

Scenario C isn't likely either as I doubt mafia got duplicate roles on the same team (town doesn't usually even get duplicate PRs). On top of that I doubt we have a vig as they should have shot me Night 2 and Night 3 with the way the preceding day phases went. Unless you think I'm the vig, but if I was I would have shot Roslin to prove my innocence. And I refuse to believe we have a vig that's good enough to hit 3 mafia but allows town to get lynched every single day. So we obviously don't have a vig. If anyone claims vig, they are my new number one lynch target cause I just can't see that existing.

As for reasons why only 1 player died night 2...it's either one of the mafia intentionally chose not to kill anyone, or they hit someone protected by doc (whether that doc be scum or town aligned remains undetermined). Considering both scum teams have a doc, its not impossible town also has one. Tigh may indeed be a town doc that saved Roslin. However we could just as easily have had a scum doc (tigh or otherwise) save either themselves or their teammate that night. The fact that Tigh is still alive when he was the only PR to claim yesterday just doesn't sit right with me. If we aren't lynching him, I definitely want him tracked.