Final Fantasy XVI: Predictions

[Loony BoB]

I'm just gonna go straight there: I don't think there will be a Final Fantasy XVI.

Has there been any main FF that was anything other than a commercial success? FFXV may have a detractors but it was considered to be a return to form by a large amount of people. You don't just abandon the series that puts you on the map, and if Square Enix don't have Final Fantasy, with all due respect to their other franchises, they're going to suffer massively, whether you feel that is justified or not. I don't think SE will decide to just stop doing the thing that causes their shares to go up, especially after FFXV got the best critic / user ratings since... hmm. Let's put this into perspective.

Year - Game - Critic Rating - User Rating (courtesy of Metacritic)
2018 - FFXII:ZA - 86 - 7.7 (PS4)
2018 - FFXIV:SB - 87 - 7.1 (PC)
2016 - FFXV - 81 - 7.5 (PS4)
2016 - WoFF - 77 - 8.1 (PS4)
2015 - Type-0 - 72 - 6.5 (PS4)
2015 - FFXIV:HW - 86 - 7.8 (PC)
2014 - LR:FFXIII - 66 - 6.0
2013 - FFXIV:ARR - 83 - 6.8 (PC)
2012 - FFXIII-2 - 79 - 6.6
2010 - FFXIV - 49 - 3.8 (PC)
2010 - FFXIII - 83 - 7.2 (PS3)
2006 - FFXII - 92 - 7.6
2001 - FFX - 92 - 8.8
2000 - FFIX - 94 - 8.9
1999 - FFVIII - 90 - 8.6
1997 - FFVII - 92 - 9.2

FFXIV in small because I'm not really paying attention to MMOs in this list, but thrown in to show signs of improvements over time in the overall history of SE FF releases.

Also bolded the 'dark days' games (from my personal perspective).

I look at user scores. So basically their latest three single player releases are the highest ratings they've had since FFXII, and FFXV is very close to FFXII in user reception. It doesn't match the golden age where VII-X kicked in, but those scores aren't reasonable expectations in a modern game - only a few per year get that kind of scoring these days. 8s and 9s are just that rare in all genres, let along RPGs. Overall I think SE have no reason to stop now - they are on the up, not the down, when it comes to FF sales and critic/user reception.

And let's face it, critic reception always gets judged by the last game in the series and how the users reacted to it (note: this is why FFXIII got a higher score than FFXV, imho). So I'd say FFXV did pretty damned well considering on that front!

There's a lot of cash left in this franchise and SE would be stupid to stop now when they are returning to form and favour with the majority of players. FFXVI is all but guaranteed.

[Psychotic]

I'm just gonna go straight there: I don't think there will be a Final Fantasy XVI.

Has there been any main FF that was anything other than a commercial success?

Final Fantasy Versus XIII I know on face value that sounds somewhat flippant, but remember that they started again from scratch with the same concept to make XV. They lost a hell of a lot of money in developing VXIII (the original) and had no end product. If anything is going to sour them on single player FFs, as opposed to their presently successful online and mobile titles, that'd be it. You could certainly put that down to the logistics of development rather than critical or commercial reception though, which I get was your point. I do think it's telling that VIIR is going to be episodic and if the VXIII debacle hadn't happened, I bet it wouldn't be.

[Fox]

Has there been any main FF that was anything other than a commercial success?

That's largely my point. XV being relatively successful is great in the short term as they get to make at least some of their money back from the mess that was Versus XIII development, but it's clearly a game where money was more or less no object. They built a whole new engine for it. They gave it to a new team and rebuilt it from scratch. They made a movie, an anime spin off, mobile game spin-offs and did a deal with Audi to make an FFXV R8. I haven't seen this many eggs in a single basket since The Spirits Within.

And it was fairly well received.

If you're a Square Enix executive right now, I would expect the following two thoughts to go through your head in order:

1) Thank god we were able to rescue something from that dumpster fire.
2) ...how the hell are we going to top that??

XV is the one that crossed the line from being a big budget game to being an unsustainably big budget game. I don't think SE will be confident that they can fund a sequel with comparable levels of spectacle, and I don't think they will have the balls to develop a sequel without it. That's why I expect nothing but spin-offs, ports and online games for the forseeable future. Maybe if FFVIIR and KH3 absolutely knock it out the park, I'll change my tune. But if anything I expect VIIR to fail to both fail meet SE's expectations and sour another chunk of the fanbase, and that'll be the nail in the coffin for any hope of XVI.

[Wolf Kanno]

VIIR will be a success for Square-Enix. I find it laughable to believe otherwise, cause despite all the warning signs (episodic content, more action rpg based combat, adding/changing the plot) it's still the most hotly anticipated game coming out of the studio with KH3 close behind with it's own series of terrible baggage in tow. So I don't think VIIR is going to be a disappointment for the company. The fans? Probably, but I'm sure it will be like the Compilation all over where fans will like it, but still say it fails to live up to the original. Of anything, I'm worried its success will allow SE to pick up more bad habits.

I also don't think SE lost as much with vXIII as people think it did. I've read fan comments that lead me to believe that some people think vXIII was 60-70% completed before that "evil Tabata came in and threw away Nomura's vision" but frankly all the news sources and interviews I've read has led me to believe the game never left pre-production, and was likely closer to only having 10-20% even ready by the time Tabata took over. Even the gameplay trailers shown are obviously heavily scripted concept videos (like the infamous one for XIII's combat in the original trailer) and was nowhere near polished. Yes, we're aware they changed some major elements and dropped some assets used for these proof of concept trailers but you would be hard pressed to find a big budget game that doesn't have wasted and unused assets for it and it hardly hurt them either.

It was middling for fans, but that's been a common issue for the franchise since FFVIII, and as long as the game gets good scores and sells copies, SE has no reason to believe a game is a failure. Not helped by which that SE is more concerned with making new fans than keeping old ones, so XIII and XV pissing off us oldbies is the least of their concerns.

[Fox]

VIIR will be a success for Square-Enix. I find it laughable to believe otherwise,

There's a key difference between "will be a success for Square-Enix" and "meeting Square Enix's expectations". It will make them a lot of money, but I think they will expect it to make ALL the money. And when it inevitably only does 5 million instead of the 12 million or something stupid they expect, it'll be deemed a failure.

cause despite all the warning signs (episodic content, more action rpg based combat, adding/changing the plot) it's still the most hotly anticipated game coming out of the studio with KH3 close behind

And I'm sure Episode 1 will rake it in for them. But that's it, and after the reception of Ep 1 doesn't reach the insane heights they require of it, they'll realise the economics of the whole endeavor aren't viable and if we're lucky we'll get episodes of diminishing quality until the full thing is complete. More likely I think they'll do 2 or 3 episodes and then can it before completion.

[Wolf Kanno]

See and I honestly feel the game will reach their expectations. Largely cause I have no faith in the idea that it will be so awful the fans won't come in droves for it. I wouldn't be surprised if half of the people listed as members of this forum don't already have it pre-ordered. The Compilation was awful, and still did wonders and if Crisis Core can be hailed as a fantastic game despite the myriad of faults and problems that even die-hard VII fans will openly admit, then I highly doubt anything we know about VIIR is going to deter these people from picking up every installment, even if they hate the first episode and every episode afterwards.

Fans are not good consumers, and while they will openly bitch and moan about the problems, they'll still buy it. I didn't like FFX, but I still bought the sequel when it came out. Regretted it, but it doesn't change the fact that my fanaticism blinded me. Didn't make the same mistake with XIII's sequels, but even though the original XIII's reviews and trailers already had me on the fence about the game, I still bought it and I'll always regret that decision. If someone as opinionated and cynical as myself can still muster enough fan love to still give the FF series a chance despite bemoaning their constant failure to live up to their glory days, then I'm pretty confident the fans will come in droves for the Remake of something beloved of their childhood, and that will likely help SE make their numbers, no matter how insanely unrealistic they are.

Fans are dumb, and nostalgia is the strongest drug on the market. SE knows this and that's why I don't think they need to worry too much about VIIR. Of anything, I'm more worried it will do so well, that they'll intentionally drag it out more.

[Loony BoB]

Has there been any main FF that was anything other than a commercial success?

That's largely my point. XV being relatively successful is great in the short term as they get to make at least some of their money back from the mess that was Versus XIII development, but it's clearly a game where money was more or less no object. They built a whole new engine for it. They gave it to a new team and rebuilt it from scratch. They made a movie, an anime spin off, mobile game spin-offs and did a deal with Audi to make an FFXV R8. I haven't seen this many eggs in a single basket since The Spirits Within.

And it was fairly well received.

If you're a Square Enix executive right now, I would expect the following two thoughts to go through your head in order:

1) Thank god we were able to rescue something from that dumpster fire.
2) ...how the hell are we going to top that??

XV is the one that crossed the line from being a big budget game to being an unsustainably big budget game. I don't think SE will be confident that they can fund a sequel with comparable levels of spectacle, and I don't think they will have the balls to develop a sequel without it. That's why I expect nothing but spin-offs, ports and online games for the forseeable future. Maybe if FFVIIR and KH3 absolutely knock it out the park, I'll change my tune. But if anything I expect VIIR to fail to both fail meet SE's expectations and sour another chunk of the fanbase, and that'll be the nail in the coffin for any hope of XVI.

No matter what happens, the first thing that will go through the people who invest into SE's shares is this:

1) Is there an FFXVI being produced?
2) Yes? Here, have my money. No? Sorry, I'm selling my shares.

SE lives and dies on Final Fantasy alone as far s I'm concerned. I don't know of anything out there that impacts their shares as much as FF does.

The first thing that I would have in mind as an exec instead of an investor?

1) We need another FF if we're to keep this company alive outside of FFXIV.
2) We need to improve our efficiency.

FFXVI might not top FFXV, but given the belief of the many in the world that it's not the greatest game of all time, let alone the greatest FF of all time, it's not exactly a stretch that they would believe they can top FFXV. They're back in the good books with what fans want, they know the next FF will sell enough to make a profit.

Investors will say they want an FF. They pay the wages of the execs. Execs will want an FF because of this. It's up to them to figure out how to pay their wages by creating an FF that will sell. If they can't do it, the execs will probably sooner get fired than FFXVI not be developed and released.

[Fox]

then I'm pretty confident the fans will come in droves for the Remake of something beloved of their childhood, and that will likely help SE make their numbers, no matter how insanely unrealistic they are.

Now, I do agree with you for the *first* installment. And if they were just gonna release it all at once, no problem. Because I absolutely agree that people will buy something because they hope it's great even if all evidence is to the contrary. I was exactly like this with FFXV - I could see all the warning signs long before release day, but I was so desperate for it to finally be out and be good that I squashed those doubts and pre-ordered it.I have not, however, bought any of the DLC. Nor will I be rushing to get a sequel if that ever happens. And this is where I think FFVIIR will fail due to its episodic nature. Will people come in droves for Episode 1? Absolutely. I mean, I still don't think it'll be as many as SE would like as too many will want to wait until it's complete, but it's reasonable to assume a high-enough uptake of Episode 1, sure. But if they're let down by that - and this is a very real possibility - then they won't necessarily buy the following episodes. Over 5 million people flocked to FFXIII despite all the warning signs with that one - about half of those stuck around for XIII-2, and half of *those* for Lightning returns.Depending on the price point, size of the episode and the level of disappointment FFVIIR is (assuming it is one at all for the sake of argument), I could see the drop off being just as bad or even worse than that. It wouldn't be the first time in recent history that an episodic game didn't get all it's chapters finished and killed off the series...

[Wolf Kanno]

Now, I do agree with you for the *first* installment. And if they were just gonna release it all at once, no problem. Because I absolutely agree that people will buy something because they hope it's great even if all evidence is to the contrary. I was exactly like this with FFXV - I could see all the warning signs long before release day, but I was so desperate for it to finally be out and be good that I squashed those doubts and pre-ordered it.I have not, however, bought any of the DLC. Nor will I be rushing to get a sequel if that ever happens. And this is where I think FFVIIR will fail due to its episodic nature. Will people come in droves for Episode 1? Absolutely. I mean, I still don't think it'll be as many as SE would like as too many will want to wait until it's complete, but it's reasonable to assume a high-enough uptake of Episode 1, sure. But if they're let down by that - and this is a very real possibility - then they won't necessarily buy the following episodes. Over 5 million people flocked to FFXIII despite all the warning signs with that one - about half of those stuck around for XIII-2, and half of *those* for Lightning returns.Depending on the price point, size of the episode and the level of disappointment FFVIIR is (assuming it is one at all for the sake of argument), I could see the drop off being just as bad or even worse than that. It wouldn't be the first time in recent history that an episodic game didn't get all it's chapters finished and killed off the series...

The underlying difference here, and largely the wild card factor is the fact that unlike FFXIII, which was a new property, VIIR is a remake of an incredibly popular and fan favorite entry in the series, so I don't feel the XIII Trilogy model is going to necessarily be the model to base how the VIIR content will work. I honestly think the Compilation will largely be a better model for determining it's success and as stated before, despite a lot of problems fans had with that nonsense, it did exceptionally well considering. I'm sure there will be a drop off after the first episode since we have to factor in the crowd who only knows of VII through it's reputation as opposed to growing up with it, those people might jump ship if it doesn't work out, but it's just as likely they may stay on cause it's not like they would be comparing it to the original for that matter either.

That's kind of where I'm seeing this. As long as VIIR is decent enough to hold you attention, regardless of how fun or respectful it is to the source material, I find it hard to believe the whole thing won't be a success for SE in the long run. Even if fans hold out of the "complete" version, that simply means that SE knows they'll get a huge pay-off down the line from this since they can effectively sell the game twice now. If they were banking on any other entry, I could see this model being really risky for them, but again, we're dealing with an iconic property here. So I feel this is going to work more in SE's favor than some people would like.

I haven't touched the DLC for XV either, but even though I had a more favorable opinion of the entry, I also don't see it really changing my standing with the game, which is the risk of such a model since first impressions are everything.

[fat_moogle]

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^ Here's hoping. Agni's Philosophy looked too good to be just a tech demo.

[Mr. Carnelian]

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^ Here's hoping. Agni's Philosophy looked too good to be just a tech demo.

A female protagonist would certainly make sense after the road trip bro-fest of XV.

[Krizzy]

HIROYUKI ITO

PLEASE

Me too! If possible, SAKAGUCHI san and UEMATSU san too!

I also hope FF will return once again to its roots.

[Yubel-Lover]

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^ Here's hoping. Agni's Philosophy looked too good to be just a tech demo.

Didn't even know about this. And it was just amazing. I seriously hope it becomes a proper game.

[fat_moogle]

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^ Here's hoping. Agni's Philosophy looked too good to be just a tech demo.

A female protagonist would certainly make sense after the road trip bro-fest of XV.

Yeah, it would make sense. FFVI, X-2 and XIII are the only FF games with female protagonists so XVI would be perfect way to get women back to the forefront.

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^ Here's hoping. Agni's Philosophy looked too good to be just a tech demo.

Didn't even know about this. And it was just amazing. I seriously hope it becomes a proper game.

It was, wasn't it? I'm hopeful that it will become a thing. Imagine if they've been working on it since the tech demo was released! I doubt it, but still. It would be nice to see FFXVI release in between the FFVII Remake games.

[Yubel-Lover]

Yeah, it definitely was! The more I watch it the more I like it!
I think Squeenix didn't really have plans for this to become a real game, but seeing the incredibly positive response it received they're probably going to use it somehow. It'd be perfect as FFXVI imo, I just don't think they'll start working on it anytime soon. Maybe After KHIII is done we might see something.