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Thread: Baseball predictions

  1. #1
    Away away away Strider's Avatar
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    Default Baseball predictions

    Spring training is in full swing, and that can only mean one thing: baseball predictions. I'll be writing an obscenely in-depth analysis for Frenzy Football, but I thought I'd at least share a brief version of what I think will happen in 2003 here at EoFF. The full version will be available there whenever I get done with it.

    ** = wild card

    American League
    East
    1. Boston Red Sox
    2. New York Yankees**
    3. Toronto Blue Jays
    4. Baltimore Orioles
    5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

    Why the Red Sox will win the AL East: the new additions. Despite all of the money George Steinbrenner has spent revamping his ballclub, I like the fact that Boston has really improved in the areas that needed the most help. Curt Schilling gives the rotation a 1-2-3 punch as good as any in baseball, and Keith Foulke gives Boston the best closer from the American League in 2003.

    Even though they didn't land Alex Rodriguez, fans need not fret because, after all, the Sox still have Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez. The offense as a whole was the most dynamic since the 1927 Yankees, and with eight returning starters (Todd Walker is the lone departure) from that cast, the Red Sox will slug their way to the top of the division.

    Central
    1. Kansas City Royals
    2. Minnesota Twins
    3. Chicago White Sox
    4. Cleveland Indians
    5. Detroit Tigers

    Why the Royals will win the Central: opportunity. The AL Central is, by far, the weakest division in baseball. GM Allan Baird did a phenomenal job in improving a team that surprised everyone in 2003, despite a limited budget. Combined with the relative inactivity/weakening of their closest competition (Chicago and Minnesota), the time is right for Tony Pena's group to step to the top of the heap.

    They lost Raul Ibanez, but signed Juan Gonzalez. They'll get full years from Brian Anderson and Mike Sweeney, and players like Angel Berroa and Aaron Guiel will be improved. Kansas City will take this crown.

    West
    1. Oakland Athletics
    2. Anaheim Angels
    3. Seattle Mariners
    4. Texas Rangers

    Why the A's will win the West: The Big Three, plus two. Oakland lost their best hitter (Miguel Tejada) and their closer (Keith Foulke) in the offseason, and made only small splashes of their own while Anaheim and Seattle opened their coffers to sign some big names. Yet the A's aren't worried. Why not? Hudson, Zito, Mulder, Redman and Harden.

    Despite an offense that ranked 26th in average, 21st in on-base percentage and 14th in runs, Oakland won 96 games on the strength of the second-best staff in baseball. Despite a dropoff in the win column, 2002 Cy Young winner Barry Zito posted an outstanding 3.30 ERA. Mulder would likely have been the runaway Cy Young winner last year if not for a leg injury, but he posted a 15-9 record with a 3.13 ERA before getting knocked out. Tim Hudson played the role of staff workhorse, and was the team's best pitcher at 16-7, 2.70.

    When you throw in the fact that Mark Redman was decidedly better than Ted Lilly last year, and that they'll be getting a full year from Rich Harden, it's hard to bet against these guys.

    National League
    East
    1. Philadelphia Phillies
    2. Florida Marlins
    3. Atlanta Braves
    4. New York Mets
    5. Montreal Expos

    Why the Phillies will win the East: redemption. Philadelphia had the wild card in their grasp before the entire team crumbled in the last two weeks, allowing Florida to speed past them and end up in the playoffs. For all of the things the Phillies almost overcame last year, they know they could've been so much better.

    Pat Burrell had a miserable season after a breakout 2002. Jimmy Rollins was a disappointment, as was David Bell. The rotation of Vicente Padilla, Randy Wolf, Kevin Millwood and Brett Myers faded down the stretch. The closer situation was an absolute mess. All of these things can be turned around, and they likely will.

    Burrell has been working to get his stroke back. Bell is healthy, and the Phillies managed to get Millwood back for another year. The trade for Billy Wagner solved their greatest weakness in about the best way possible. They know they were a disappointment, and with Atlanta's grasp on the division apparently faltering, they'll be hungry to seize the title.

    Central
    1. Chicago Cubs
    2. Houston Astros**
    3. St. Louis Cardinals
    4. Milwaukee Brewers
    5. Cincinnati Reds
    6. Pittsburgh Pirates

    Why the Cubs will win the Central: they won the arms race. Houston made some bold moves by signing Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte as hometown heroes, and the Astros rotation can be argued as the best in baseball. Now that the Cubbies have their hands on Maddux, I believe that their rotation is thoroughly better.

    The rotation of Prior, Wood, Clement, Maddux and Zambrano has the edge on Pettitte, Clemens, Oswalt, Miller and Redding in just about every category: wins, ERA, complete games, shutouts, WHIP and (by a huge margin) strikeouts. Maddux also brings the young guns a knowledge of the league's hitters that Pettitte and Clemens don't have, and a work ethic that will rub off onto them. It is this author's opinion that the Cubs have the best rotation in baseball now, and that will carry them to the division title.

    West
    1. San Francisco Giants
    2. Arizona Diamondbacks
    3. Colorado Rockies
    4. Los Angeles Dodgers
    5. San Diego Padres

    Why the Giants will win the West: depth. Admittedly, there was a lot of criticism from fellow Giants fans about the anxiety concerning the team's small ventures into the free agents pool (as in, they supposedly didn't find someone to hit behind Barry Bonds), but at the cost the team would've endured to sign a Vladimir Guerrero or a Greg Maddux, they wouldn't have been able to sign A.J. Pierzynski. And Dustin Mohr. And J.T. Snow. And Matt Herges. And about five other players.

    San Francisco won 100 games in 2003, and only Atlanta and the Yankees won more. The only player to appear in more than 150 games was Jose Cruz, Jr., because the team didn't need the same nine people on the field every day to beat their opponents. Players like Pedro Feliz, Jeffery Hammonds and Neifi Perez were polished enough to allow manager Felipe Alou to rest his stars occassionally with confidence that the team would still win.

    This off-season was more of the same plan, with the only new expected starter being Pierzynski. The Giants have a deep bench that will serve them well as it did in 2003, and considering their main rivals are still a step or two behind in challenging (Arizona's lack of pitching, L.A.'s lack of offense), the Giants are a safe bet to repeat as division champions.

    So then. . . do you have any thoughts about this? Any predictions of your own? Let's discuss, the time is upon us!

  2. #2
    Feel the Bern Del Murder's Avatar
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    At this point I would say:

    AL:
    NYY - that team can't finish second
    Minnesota - they seem to pull it out of their butts at the last minute every year
    Oakland - they play a pitcher's game and their pitchers are on top of their game, Miguel who?
    WC: Anaheim - big additions in Colon and Guerrero, plus this team won the World Series two years ago and still have most of that team together

    NL:
    Atlanta - I don't care who they have and who they're missing, the win their division every year and that's all there is to it
    Houston - Chicago's staff is powerful, but I like the combination of champions like Clemens and Pettitte to go with Oswalt and Miller
    SF - This division sucks almost as bad as AL Central, Arizona sucks and the Dodgers always crumble, and Colorado and SD are laughable, SF is a decent team and will do it again behind Bonds and Schmidt
    WC - Chicago, all those pitchers won't deny them a playoff spot

    How boring, I picked the same AL teams to win their divisions that have for the past 2 years.

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  3. #3
    lomas de chapultepec eestlinc's Avatar
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    i think you sink the braves' ship prematurely. and I think the astros win the central. and I think boston folds down the stretch like they always do. and i think seattle is better than you think they are.

    here's some slightly less researched predictions:

    AL East:
    New York
    Boston (wild card)
    Toronto
    Baltimore
    Tampa Bay

    the AL East is the most improved division in baseball. I think Baltimore and Toronto both could win the AL Central this year, yet they won't hang with Boston and New York. Time to realign the divisions, I say!

    AL Central:
    Kansas City
    Minnesota
    Cleveland
    Chicago
    Detroit

    The is a horrible division with a pretty good Royals team winning it. Cleveland makes a big improvement, though.

    AL West:
    Seattle
    Oakland
    Anaheim
    Texas

    The weight of losing the best position players year after year finally catches up to the A's. Even with an improved starting rotation, the runs aren't there. Seattle becomes resurgent with a revamped bullpen and Ichiro finds his legs again and leads this team back to the postseason. Anaheim made some big moves but they don't quite gel this year. Texas has a good young nucleus but they really belong in the central with such "young nucleuses" as Cleveland and Detroit.

    NL East:
    Atlanta
    Philadelphia
    Florida
    New York
    Montreal

    Don't dethrone the braves until they actually lose the division. The Phillies rotation is still overrated and there's no guarantee Burrell or Abreu will rebound. Florida can't keep the magic going, but the Mets finally show a little improvement.

    NL Central:
    Houston
    Chicago (wild card)
    St. Louis
    Milwuakee
    Cincinnati
    Pittsburgh

    The cubs have a great rotation, but so do the astros, but the astros have a better lineup. St Louis is headed for a fall but none of the other three teams are decent enough to make a run for third place.

    NL West:
    Arizona
    Los Angeles
    San Francisco
    San Diego
    Colorado

    The giants are a two man team and that won't win the division this year. Arizona lost Schilling but gained Sexson and Alomar. Big ups to them. LA and San Diego both improve a lot, but not enough for the playoffs. Colorado fades fast.

    in the playoffs:

    AL:
    Seattle over NYY
    KC over Boston

    Seattle of KC

    NL:
    Atlanta over Chicago
    Houston over Arizona

    Houston over Atlanta

    WS: Houston over Seattle

  4. #4
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    Oh, hey, I forgot playoff predictions, too.

    ALDS
    Oakland over New York, 3-2
    Boston over Kansas City, 3-0

    NLDS
    Philadelphia over Houston, 3-1
    Chicago over San Francisco, 3-1

    ALCS
    Oakland over Boston, 4-3

    NLCS
    Chicago over Philadelphia, 4-2

    WORLD SERIES
    Chicago over Oakland, 4-2

  5. #5
    Feel the Bern Del Murder's Avatar
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    That would be sweet! But stupid A's never make it out of the first round.

    ALDS:
    Anaheim over NYY
    Oakland over Minnesota

    ALCS:
    Anaheim over Oakland

    NLDS:
    Houston over Atlanta
    Chicago over SF

    NLCS:
    Houston over Chicago

    World Series:
    Houston over Anaheim

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  6. #6
    Nerd Spanker White Raven's Avatar
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    Meh, whats with all this talk of baseball all of a sudden. Preseason games havn't even begun and people can predict what they think will happen? I've got a prediction...the teams with the highest payroll will win the magority of games, while teams with payrolls not in the hundreds of millions will not do as good as those other teams. In anycase I'll cheer on my Toronto Bluejays.

  7. #7
    m4tt's Avatar
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    I don't see SF doing as good once Bonds has to stop using steroids. :rolleyes2

    The Padres improved a lot more than any other team in that division, I don't know if they will finish first, but they will atleast be 2nd or 3rd.

    The rest of the teams I don't really care about. As long as the Yankees go no where, and the Giants go no where, I will be happy.
    Mr Thou! Mr Thou!

  8. #8
    My snow pork sword PeTeRL90's Avatar
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    AL EAST: The Redsox are going to win it this year. I'm not saying that because I really hate the Yankees. I'm saying it because I feel this is the Redsox's year. I mean, I'll admit, the Yankees have a power-house offense and defense this year, but the Redsox finally have a decent closer in Keith Faulk. I believe the main reason they didn't win last year was because of their bullpen. And it seems they have a steady one this year.

    AL CENTRAL: It'll probably come down to the last week or so before the team wins the division. I hate to pick over my Twins, but the Whitesox will probably win it this year. The reason I picked the Whitesox over the Twins, is because the Twins lost key pitchers and key infielders. They lost Eddie Guardado, who arguably, was their best closer. They lost third basemen A.J. Perz. I just don't think the Twins will hold the top spot for long if they get it.

    AL WEST: I've picked the A's the past two years to win, and they have, but I'm going with the Mariners on this one. Though neither team lost that many key players, it should be a close race to probably the last week, like the AL Central. A's will win the Wildcard, though.

    NL EAST: I'm gonna go with the Philidelphia Phillies on this. The Braves just don't seem like the dominant team this year like they've been for the past 12 years, since they don't have Maddux, Lopez, Sheffield, and a few others anymore. Kevin Milwood will be the Phillie's ace this year, but he won't have another No-Hitter this year. Phillies just seem like the strong team this year in the East.

    NL CENTRAL: Easy pick for me. Chicago Cubs. Pitching wins games. And the Cubs have arguably, the best pitching rotation this year, with Prior, Maddux, Clement, Wood, and Zambrano. Althought Maddux will most likely will be the 5th pitcher on the rotation, it's still a very dominant pitching rotation. The Astros will win the Wildcard this year.

    NL WEST: Arizona Diamondbacks, plain and simple. The Giants will fall apart this year, leaving a huge opportunity for the Diamondbacks. Though I feel the Padres will put up a fight for the division, I think the Diamondbacks will pull away mid-way through the second half of the season.
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