[q="Dingo Jellybean"]Technology has always followed a j-curve graph and I doubt I would see a change in that.[/q]
The intial growth for many things <i>is</i> a J-shaped, or exponential curve, and can accurately be used to measure initial growth.
However, the problem is, is that such a level of growth is usually unsustainable. Take a colony of bacteria (classic example). Initially the growth will be J-shaped as 2 divide to 4 to 8, to 16...etc. However, as they fill their habitat, growth slows down as food is limited, space is limited, no room for waste, etc. So, while looking at the initial growth, it looks J-Shaped, but after a long time, it is acutally S-shaped, or a <u>logistics</u> model</i>.
There is every reason to assume that technology will have to eventually conform to a logistics model. The physical constraints of a computer system dictate it at some point (speed of light, size of particles in the semi-conductor, etc.). While I don't think we are reaching that point now, or in the next few years, it <i>will</i> happen, and growth will slow down, and the faster the growth now, the sooner those constraints are reached. So, I don't think I'll believe the predictions for 2031 and the like.
<b>Edit: Closing open underline tags would be a good thing, no?</b>
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