The 2005 MLB Preview Thread!

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I posted mine in my LiveJournal before spring training (it's bolder that way), let me see if I can dig it up...

Ah, here we go.

AL East
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees **
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

In short, the Sox have the title but still lack a division title. I don't like the Yankees because I think their age will catch up to them to a greater extent in 2005. Adding Randy Johnson is great, but Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright are (for the most part) still unproven. Chances are they'll end up being the latest version of Jeff Weaver and Javy Vasquez... Boston, meanwhile, boasts the best offense of the bunch, and their pitching will pick up when Schilling and Wade Miller are recovered from their injuries... Baltimore has the O, but still lacks starting pitching... Toronto won't be as bad as they were last year, but losing Carlos Delgado hurts... And as much as I like Tampa, they're still about two years away from contending.

AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Cleveland Indians
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals

The Twins are the most complete team in this division. They've got speed at the top of the order (Shannon Stewart, Jason Bruntlett), power in the middle (Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer) and one hell of a pair of aces in the rotation (Brad Radke, Johan Santana)... I'm not sold on Cleveland at all, I think they're due for a letdown. Their pitching, Jake Westbrook and C.C. Sabathia aside, is just too questionable for me to put any faith in them. And I don't think those two will be as good as they were last year... Detroit, on the other hand, can expect another major stride in their progress. Getting Magglio Ordonez adds more punch to an already potent offense, and that will help carry the young pitching staff. Watch out for Jeremy Bonderman.

AL West
1. Texas Rangers
2. Anaheim Angels
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners

The eyes of the Ranger are on a return to the playoffs. They certainly have the offense to get there, if they can only learn to hit on the road. The rotation will need to progress more, too, under Orel Hershiser... Anaheim has a lot of injury concerns throughout their lineup (Garret Anderson, Dallas McPherson, Adam Kennedy) and their rotation, for all of the glowing reviews they get, isn't that great. The bullpen is by far the best in the West, but they'll need someone to get the ball to them... Oakland won't be bad, by any means, but how well they do will depend in large part on the pitchers they acquired in breaking up the Big Three. Dan Meyer, Danny Haren and Joe Blanton will be important to the team's success... Seattle just doesn't have enough pitching to compete, and Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre will be in for a rude awakening at Safeco Field.

NL East
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Florida Marlins
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals

The best rotation in baseball. You'd have to chop off the arms of John Smoltz and Tim Hudson before I start considering Florida. Their offense isn't what it was last year, but we all said the same thing last year... I like the Fish if Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett stays healthy. For their home park, the lineup is the best in the division now that they have Delgado manning first... Philly's lineup is second-best, in my opinion, but the starting pitching leaves something to be desired. Jon Leiber is a nice pickup, but there's no true ace... The Mets. Hmm. I had a hard time with this one, and while signing Beltran and Martinez will make them better, they still have a lot of holes and injury questions... I'll be rooting for the Nationals this year, but they won't get out of the cellar in year one. Don't think they won't be pesky, though, especially with Frank Robinson at the helm. He's seen worse.

NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs
2. St. Louis Cardinals **
3. Houston Astros
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Cincinnati Reds
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Arm issues be damned, I like the Cubs. Losing Sammy Sosa and Moises Alou won't hurt them as much as some think, especially since they get a full season out of Nomar Garciaparra. When Prior and Wood are 100%, look out... The Cardinals will need more great campaigns out of their starting pitching, and I'm not sure they're up to the job. Woody Williams is gone, Matt Morris is in decline, Chris Carpenter is no sure thing, as is Jason Marquis. The offense, best in the majors if you ask me, will keep them in the hunt... Houston'll fall back to Earth after an astounding 2004. Losing Berkman for a month hurts, and losing Beltran and Jeff Kent takes a lot of punch out of a lineup that needs it. Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio are on their last legs. Brandon Backe will need to show that October was no fluke, right behind Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt... I say watch out for Milwaukee in 2006, but in the meantime they'll tread water. Remember that this team actually had a winning record at the All-Star break before falling apart in the second half. Hopefully, the pitching will get better behind Ben Sheets... Cincinnati could be an intriguing team if they stayed healthy. Their decline in 2004 lined up with, fittingly, losing Ken Griffey Jr. for the season. The pitching isn't great, but at least ownership is finally loosening the pursestrings to make progress... Pittsburgh. Oof. They've got a good young group of players (Jason Bay, Oliver Perez, Kip Wells), but it's the fringe players that'll hold them down.

NL West
1. San Francisco Giants
2. San Diego Padres
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. Colorado Rockies

No, it's not bias. The Giants are the most complete team in the National League. Omar Vizquel is a huge upgrade over Neifi Perez and Deivi Cruz, Mike Matheny will make a good pitching staff that much better, Moises Alou brings punch to a potent lineup, and Armando Benitez plugs up the one biggest hole the team had in 2004. Even without Bonds, this team will contend for a World Series title... The Padres will likely be about as good as last year, but considering everyone else in division, that represents a step up. Woody Williams takes David Wells' place on an underrated pitching staff, but the real key is how well the offense takes advantage of Petco Park after a year there... You can't fault the Snakes for trying to win again. Yes, Troy Glaus and Russ Ortiz aren't the greatest pickups ever, but they'll help the team back onto the road to respectability... The Dodgers. Ugh. Somehow, they made themselves worse after a division title in 2004, but I'm all for it. The lineup is built on Paul DePodesta's expectations (Hee Sop Choi? Jayson Werth? David Ross?), so they've got a lot of work to do... Colorado will rake at home, of course, but the pitching will resign them to another cellar-dweller finish. Keep an eye out for Jeff Francis, though.

Divisional Playoffs
Boston over Texas 3-1
Minnesota over New York 3-2
San Francisco over St. Louis 3-1
Chicago over Atlanta 3-2

Championships
Minnesota over Boston 4-2
San Francisco over Chicago 4-3

World Series
San Francisco over Minnesota 4-2

NL MVP - Albert Pujols
AL MVP - Manny Ramirez
NL Cy Young - Jason Schmidt
AL Cy Young - Johan Santana

Ten Pitchers to Keep an Eye On (For One Reason or Another):
Scott Kazmir
Jeremy Bonderman
Cliff Lee
Dan Haren
Ryan Drese
Horacio Ramirez
Pedro Martinez
Brandon Backe
Jerome Williams
Jeff Francis

Ten Hitters, Same Thing:
Sammy Sosa
Vernon Wells
Justin Morneau
Hank Blalock
Nick Swisher
Carlos Beltran
Nomar Garciaparra
Jason Lane
Ryan Klesko/Phil Nevin
Preston Wilson