Fortunately, the human-to-human strain(s) are still over in asia. Not so good a thing for the Chinese, but it's a load off my mind. If that hasn't changed by winter, we'll be safe until spring. Of course, said change could occur either from mutation of this strain, or the migration of the more infectious version. In either case, we'll know by the end of the fall season.
I've read that it's estimated to hit next winter.
By then there'll be a vaccine, the avian flu for human to human wouldn't reach the Uk unless one nearby mutates.
Now I wish I paid attention to this medical crap.
LET THE HAMMER FALL
No, there almost certainly will not be a vaccine. Tamiflu can't do ANYTHING to the avian flu. Vaccinations for a disease work equally well in every species capable of catching the disease in the first place (we actually make vaccines by infecting animals with the disease, and extracting the antibodies)- and the testing on animals is conclusive: no detectable effect. Meaning: tamiflu useless. The rate for which to produce an effective vaccination is many, many years. Some of the deadliest STILL have no treatment.
The current quarentine systems are all based upon the lessons learned in the wake of Spanish Influenza, a disease that killed millions in an era when travel was slower and less frequent, and population centers were less dence. A disease that killed without discretion, pity, or any sign of slowing. A disease that is still hybernating out there in mass graves where hundreds of human bodies were dumped and buried. Burned, but not well enough. A disease that some of the best scientists in the world have been trying to beat for the last three decades. And a disease that is all too closely related to this avian flu.
Virii are like all other species- the more food, the better. Spanish Influenza was devestating back then, it would be unstopable now. And the avian flu strains capable of ready human-to-human infection, will be just as powerful. There is no way to "over-react" to this disease, it's a nightmare scenario. Why do you think that biological warfare is considered as bad, if not worse, than nuclear? It's because nature is a more skilled killer than we, and these types of flu are amongst the finest of her tools.
EDIT: Finally found the site I was looking for.
http://www.zkea.com/archives/archive02002.html
And in the process, this surprisingly good (appearantly college) essay.
http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/
Last edited by udsuna; 10-17-2005 at 07:48 PM.
Tamiflu vaccinates against flu right.
Vaccinating against flu reduces the chances of mutation, By the time a human strain comes around in the UK there'll be treatments to minimize the effects, with drugs and stuff it'll be like having a very bad flu.
The disease kills through pneumonia so if it comes round to that then scientists and doctors have something to work from.
The less chance it has of mutating a lower death toll.
They cannot contain the disease as easily because of bird rights acts.
LET THE HAMMER FALL
Not quite. Tamiflu works by exposing us to a genetic marker found in almost every form of flu. Our immune system learns the genetic marker, and kills everything with it. Neither Spanish Influenza, nor this Avian flu that's so horrible, have that marker. This is why both of them are so deadly: our immunology has never seen anything like them, so we have to start from scratch. Other flu viral strains: we're highly resistant to, because we've been learning their weaknesses since the womb. (yes, womb, we start our immunities by copying our mother's). And look how much harm even a standard flu can deal.Originally Posted by Shoden
But, Spanish and Avian flu, we don't have any preperation. It's the immunological equivilant to a total war begun with surprise and superior numbers. By the time we start fighting back, we're too weak to be effective.
And, if anything, using Tamiflu to block these virii is dangerous. Even if one of these influenza strains manages to become epidemic, there's always a chance that they'll be choked out by another virus that we CAN beat. If the tamiflu innoculations are there, it makes it harder for competing flu strains that might outperform the Avian strain.
Last edited by udsuna; 10-17-2005 at 08:23 PM.
Dont have a cold or a flu, then youve got no problems, its as simple as that. Also its been said its perfectly safe to eat poultry. No long paragraph to explain. thats all the details you need to know.
Would the vaccinations serve to be a catalyst for mutation? The thought crossed my mind but I'm not too knowledgeable of medical manners so I really don't know myself.
The Vaccination just increases the chance of not catching a cold/flu (supposedly), i dont need it.
Well, the Avian flu would ignore our current innoculations. Meaning, simply, that it won't do anything to the virus, so the virus will have no need to mutate against it. No natural selection, so no catalyst.
And, yes, cooked chicken is perfectly safe. Flu virii are notoriously easy to kill with heat. Anything over 200 degrees for 15 minutes, should destroy the stuff. E-coli and Somanella, however, are far more resilliant (300+ for at least half an hour). And we cook our meat with the intent to kill those diseases.
Oh, Russ, it's not possible to avoid any airborn influenza. You WILL be exposed, no escape from that except death. Or living in a bio-enclosure for the rest of your life. It's only a matter of if you're actually vulnerable enough that the virus can successfully infect you before it dies.
I didnt say i was vunrable to any airborn subtances, im just saying, if you live in the right atmosphere and conditions, the stronger you are to fight it off. If your the type of person to stand in the rain everytime there is rain or in cold places all the time then that person better watch out because they are going to find it hard to avoid Bird Flu.
But the Avian flu is much like the Spanish flu- in fact, they're probably directly related strains- and Spanish Influenza killed more healthy adults (ages 20 to 40) than it did children and elderly. It's odd, but people with weak immune systems seem to hold up better. Something I did not know until about 2 hours ago, when I found those links and read some of the material on them.
It also prefers warm climates. Most virii do. The idea that cold weather causes colds- a complete myth (except pnuemonia and hypothermia, those are very much about the cold). But Coxis (common cold) and Influenza prefer warm places. The reason you get more sick during the winter, is because typically in the winter you spend more time in close contact with a greater number of people. School, for one, comes to mind.
Yeah well, i live in Wales, nothing ever happens here so im good lol
For your sake, I certainly hope so.
It'll die out in Europe, it originated in China defer Climate differences and the winter, but still we're pretty much screwed as Udsuna is trying to make us accept.
These tamiflu Drugs are meantto reduce the effects of the virus and just make takers experience a bad flu.
LET THE HAMMER FALL
Id rather just be in my boiling hot bedroom, sweating like a monkey on crack, than to do that.
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